A new economic analysis estimates that measures proposed during Arizona’s 2026 legislative session could have imposed at least $31.5 billion in annual costs and reduced employment by more than 424,000 jobs if they had taken effect together.
The 2026 Arizona “Job Killers” report, produced by Common Sense Institute Arizona (CSI) and the Arizona Chamber Foundation, identified 119 legislative measures that the organizations classified as potential tax increases, labor-cost increases, regulatory burdens, or new operating restrictions on Arizona businesses.
What is the potential cost of policy?
CSI Arizona and the Arizona Chamber Foundation identified 119 bills introduced during the 2026 legislative session that would have increased taxes, fees, labor costs or regulatory requirements.
A review of the measures’ introduced sponsorship records found that 92 had Democratic lead sponsors and 27 had Republican lead sponsors. One Democratic-led measure also listed Republican sponsors. All 23 measures classified in the report’s labor category had Democratic lead sponsors.
CSI used Regional Economic Models Inc. (REMI) simulation software to produce the statewide estimates. Most individual estimates represent direct, first-order costs, while researchers applied a broader REMI TaxPI+ analysis to selected proposals.
The projections describe hypothetical effects, not recorded losses. The report assumes sudden and simultaneous enactment of the modeled proposals and cautions that actual costs could vary with implementation. None of the 119 measures became law.
The authors wrote, “An initial econometric analysis using CSI’s REMI simulation software suggests enactment of 88 of the 119 bills identified and tracked by the Arizona Chamber would have imposed at least $31 billion in new annual costs on Arizona.”
The report’s methodology footnote gives a different count, stating that CSI limited its quantitative analysis to 31 proposals whose costs could be estimated from tax and fee provisions or existing academic research. It says the remaining proposals could impose additional costs that were not readily estimable for the report.
CSI reported that its economic simulation estimated that simultaneous implementation of the modeled proposals could have reduced statewide employment by 424,400 jobs, or 9 percent; lowered real disposable personal income per resident by as much as $4,100 annually, or 7 percent; and reduced Arizona’s real gross domestic product by $48 billion, or 8 percent, once the effects were fully realized.
The largest estimated cost category consisted of labor measures, with 23 proposals carrying an estimated combined cost exceeding $17.5 billion.
These included proposals to repeal Arizona’s constitutional and statutory right-to-work protections. SCR 1035 and HCR 2022 proposed placing the repeal of Article XXV of the Arizona Constitution before voters. If voters approved the constitutional change, the related HB 2464 would have repealed Arizona’s statutory right-to-work provision.
Article XXV prohibits denying a person employment because of nonmembership in a labor organization and prohibits agreements that exclude people from employment on that basis.
CSI’s modeling assumed repeal would lower Arizona’s projected average annual GDP growth over five years from 3.86 percent to 3.05 percent, a reduction of approximately 21 percent from the baseline growth rate. The model projected between 30,000 and 40,000 fewer jobs.
Other labor proposals included mandatory paid-leave programs, minimum-wage increases, workplace heat regulations, and changes to scheduling, meal breaks, and overtime requirements. The report estimated $1.8 billion in costs from proposed paid-leave programs and up to $1.9 billion from minimum-wage increases.
HB 2466 would have required overtime compensation for work exceeding eight hours in a workday, double pay for hours beyond 12 in a workday, and additional meal and rest breaks. CSI placed the measure’s estimated annual cost at $2.5 billion.
The report estimated that tax proposals would have imposed a combined cost of nearly $3.8 billion.
HB 4095 proposed an additional 3.5 percent tax on federal adjusted gross income exceeding $250,000 for single filers and married people filing separately, or $500,000 for married couples filing jointly and heads of household. Revenue would have been divided equally between the Classroom Site Fund and the Emergency Deficiencies Correction Fund.
CSI estimated the measure would have generated approximately $1.5 billion in additional annual tax liability.
HB 2636 would have retained the state’s 2.5 percent rate on taxable income through $1 million and applied an 8 percent rate to income above that threshold. The report’s narrative incorrectly identifies that proposal as HB 2629; its appendix identifies it correctly.
Separately, HB 2629 would have increased the minimum annual corporate income tax from $50 to $1,000 for otherwise taxable corporations with at least 50 employees. CSI estimated approximately $3.9 million in additional annual costs.
SB 1575 would have changed Arizona’s formula for allocating the income of multistate corporations by ending the option to calculate business income using only the sales factor. CSI estimated approximately $292.9 million in annual costs.
HB 2461 proposed a workforce-development surcharge on businesses with at least 50 employees. The bill set the surcharge at 1 percent of payroll taxes paid during the taxable year. CSI estimated an annual cost of $32.6 million.
Energy and environmental proposals accounted for an estimated $7.1 billion in annual costs, according to the report.
HB 2551 would have required Arizona electric distribution utilities to generate at least 50 percent of their electricity from renewable sources by January 1, 2035. It also proposed establishing an Office of Resiliency within the governor’s office.
SB 1385 proposed a similar renewable energy requirement taking effect by January 1, 2036.
CSI estimated that the renewable-generation requirements could have increased electricity costs by approximately $3 billion after accounting for generation and backup-capacity expenses.
The study also examined HB 2467, which would have removed transaction privilege and use-tax exemptions for qualifying data-center equipment. The bill would have required data centers to use renewable electricity with battery storage beginning in 2027 while imposing limits on water-consuming cooling systems.
The report identified 66 measures involving legal or administrative requirements, with an estimated combined cost of $3.3 billion. Those proposals addressed rent regulation, mandatory acceptance of cash, pharmacy benefit managers, consumer refunds, and price restrictions during emergencies.
“No single policy determines the entire direction of an economy, but policy choices compound over time,” CSI Arizona Executive Director Katie Ratlief said. “That’s exactly why we do this analysis every year. A tax here, a new mandate there, another regulatory requirement somewhere else may not seem significant on its own. But put them all together, and the economic picture can change dramatically. Our job is to connect those dots and give Arizonans a clear view of what these policy choices could mean for jobs, investment and the future of our economy.”
The analysis also compared Arizona’s economic performance with Colorado’s. CSI reported that Arizona’s inflation-adjusted GDP has grown at an average rate approximately 20 percent faster than Colorado’s since 2016. Arizona’s average annual population-adjusted net interstate migration increased 18.5 percent since 2020 compared with its average during the previous decade, while Colorado’s comparable measure declined by more than 90 percent, according to CSI.
CSI estimated that Arizona would have approximately 154,405 fewer workers and $26.4 billion less in real GDP if the state had followed Colorado’s economic growth trajectory since 2019. That comparison is also a modeled counterfactual rather than a measurement of losses Arizona experienced.
“Arizona’s economic success is not an accident,” Arizona Chamber President and CEO Danny Seiden said. “It reflects years of policy choices that have kept taxes competitive, preserved a flexible labor environment, cut red tape, and given businesses the confidence to invest and hire here.”
“We’re fortunate none of these bills became law. If they had, Arizona’s competitive advantages could have been dramatically undermined. Arizona’s competitive position is strong, but we can’t take it for granted,” he added.
A new report examining corporate ownership of Phoenix-area housing calls for restrictions on institutional homebuyers, expanded financing for local builders, and changes to federal tax policy. The report also endorses an Arizona proposal from Republican state Rep. Nick Kupper (R-LD25).
The American Economic Liberties Project’s September case study, authored by Laurel Kilgour and Allie Gross, argues that consolidation in banking and homebuilding, purchases of foreclosed properties, and the expansion of build-to-rent communities have contributed to difficulties facing prospective homeowners.
For more on the investor takeover of housing in Phoenix, read the full brief Phoenix Case Study: Single-Family Rentals, Build-to-Rent, and Undoing the Corporate Capture of Housing here: https://t.co/bQtNUr6fLX
— American Economic Liberties Project (@econliberties) September 9, 2026
The nonprofit, which advocates against concentrated corporate power, acknowledges that institutional investors did not create the housing supply shortage. Its report contends that investors capitalized on that shortage while changes in financing weakened smaller builders’ ability to compete.
The report’s focus on construction shortfalls follows earlier research covered by AZ Free News in May. The Common Sense Institute identified prolonged underbuilding after the Great Recession as a principal driver of Arizona’s housing shortage, citing annual housing permits that fell from nearly 90,000 in 2005 to approximately 12,600 in 2010 and recovered to about 45,000 by 2019. That study examined short-term rentals such as Airbnb and found no consistent statistical relationship between their growth and home-price appreciation across Arizona communities.
Before the housing crash, Arizona was building at a rapid pace:
• ~400,000 homes built from 2003–2007 After the Great Recession, construction slowed significantly: • ~211,000 homes built from 2010–2019
— Common Sense Institute Arizona (@CSInstituteAZ) April 16, 2026
Phoenix has gained prominence in the institutional rental market in recent years, appearing in Urban Institute research published in 2023. Using 2022 property records, researchers identified 33,406 single-family rental properties held by “mega” rental operators in the Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler metropolitan area, second to Atlanta among the markets examined. The study defined those operators as investors owning more than 1,000 properties across multiple locations. However, the Urban Institute also cautioned that its data should be treated as a sample and that smaller institutional investors were incompletely captured.
A 2024 Government Accountability Office (GAO) review found that institutional investors may have contributed to increases in home prices and rents while helping stabilize neighborhoods after the financial crisis. The GAO said their effects on homeownership opportunities and tenants were less clear because of limited data and inconsistent definitions of institutional investors.
The new Phoenix report also examines build-to-rent developments, where homes are constructed for rental occupancy. Its recommendations include phased sales of institutional holdings, giving prospective owner-occupants and nonprofits an initial opportunity to purchase foreclosed homes, and reducing tax incentives for institutional rental ownership. The authors also recommend financing programs for local homebuilders and taxes intended to discourage holding undeveloped land.
In Arizona, the report endorses Kupper’s House Bill 2325, introduced in January as the “Own Something and Be Happy Act.”
I’m proud to introduce HB2325 the Own Something and Be Happy Act!
The introduced legislation would prohibit covered institutional investors from owning more than 50 single-family homes statewide, bidding during the first 60 days a home is publicly offered for sale, or making bulk purchases. Investors already exceeding the ownership limit would be barred from additional acquisitions and could voluntarily sell properties to comply.
The bill includes exemptions for affordable housing nonprofits, government housing agencies, community land trusts, qualifying homebuilders, and people or entities owning fewer than 50 single-family homes in Arizona. It would also require annual ownership disclosures to the Arizona Department of Housing. The proposed enforcement provisions would allow local prosecutors to act when the attorney general declines enforcement in a particular matter.
“When large investment firms buy up neighborhoods, families lose and prices climb,” Kupper said.
HB 2325 did not receive a hearing in the House Commerce Committee.
At the federal level, the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, enacted July 11, includes restrictions on additional single-family home purchases by large institutional investors. Its definition generally covers qualifying investment entities controlling at least 350 homes, subject to exclusions.
The federal purchase restrictions take effect 180 days after enactment. The law includes exceptions for qualifying build-to-rent purchases and other transactions, and it does not require investors to sell homes purchased before enactment.
Arizona’s House delegation split 5–3 on the final version in the June 23 vote. Reps. David Schweikert (R-AZ01), Eli Crane (R-AZ02), and Andy Biggs (R-AZ05) voted against it. Reps. Juan Ciscomani (R-AZ06) and Abraham Hamadeh (R-AZ08) joined Reps. Yassamin Ansari (D-AZ03), Greg Stanton (D-AZ04), and Adelita Grijalva (D-AZ07) in support. Rep. Paul Gosar (R-AZ09) did not vote. Sens. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) and Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) both supported the final Senate version in the June 22 vote.
President Donald Trump said that he would withhold his signature in protest over the Senate’s failure to pass the SAVE America Act, which would require documentary proof of citizenship for voter registration and photo identification for voting. The housing legislation became law July 11 without his signature, following the constitutional review period of 10 days, excluding Sundays, without a veto.
Arizona Reps. Quang Nguyen (R-LD1) and Justin Wilmeth (R-LD2) are encouraging public support for the future USS Arizona and its crew following a meeting with representatives of the foundation supporting the submarine’s commissioning and preserving the legacy of its battleship predecessor.
The lawmakers recently met with USS Arizona Legacy Foundation President Nicole LaSlavic and ship sponsor Nikki Stratton where they discussed the foundation’s work, the commissioning process, and opportunities for Arizonans to support the vessel and its sailors.
State Representative Quang Nguyen Highlights Return of USS Arizona Name to U.S. Fleet Arizonans should know about and stand behind the submarine and sailors who will carry our state’s name
“The name USS Arizona carries special meaning for the people of our state, and Arizonans… pic.twitter.com/mbIw13Yd5a
“The name USS Arizona carries special meaning for the people of our state, and Arizonans should know that name is returning to the fleet. A new generation of sailors will carry Arizona’s name around the world for decades to come,” Nguyen said. “We should be proud of them, stand behind them, and make sure the legacy of the USS Arizona and those who served aboard her is never forgotten.”
The submarine will be the first U.S. Navy warship to carry the Arizona name since USS Arizona (BB-39), which sank during the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor on December 7, 1941.
The State of Arizona is honored to have its name attached to the latest Virginia-class fast attack submarine (SSN-803). On Friday, Representative @JustinWilmethAZ and I will meet with the President of the USS Arizona Legacy Foundation and the Ship Sponsor to support the… pic.twitter.com/C0qHSPFD3P
The attack killed 1,177 sailors and Marines aboard the battleship. Its sunken hull remains at Pearl Harbor, where the USS Arizona Memorial honors the fallen service members. Retired Lt. Cmdr. Louis “Lou” Conter, the last surviving crew member from USS Arizona’s sinking at Pearl Harbor, died in 2024 at age 102.
Stratton’s connection to the project includes her own family’s history. She is the granddaughter of Donald Stratton, who survived the attack aboard the battleship. Despite severe burns that led to his discharge in 1942, he reenlisted in 1944 and returned to service in the Pacific.
At the submarine’s December 7, 2022, keel-laying ceremony in Quonset Point, Rhode Island, Nikki Stratton welded her initials onto a steel plate intended for permanent placement aboard the vessel. The ceremony marked a milestone in its construction.
The future Arizona is a Virginia-class submarine designed to include the Virginia Payload Module, an additional hull section containing four large-diameter payload tubes. The module expands the submarine’s capacity to carry weapons and other undersea payloads.
In August, the Navy announced that it would reclassify 19 planned Virginia-class submarines equipped with the module as guided-missile submarines, using the designation SSGN. The announcement identifies SSGN-803 as the first platform in that group and estimates delivery in fiscal year 2029.
Wilmeth said that the submarine’s connection to Arizona and the sailors lost at Pearl Harbor warranted public recognition and support for its future crew.
“These sailors will serve aboard a submarine named for our state and carrying the name of a vessel whose sailors made the ultimate sacrifice at Pearl Harbor. It’s important that we honor that past while focusing on the future. We want Arizonans to know who they are, take pride in their service, and stand behind them.”
The USS Arizona Legacy Foundation, established in 2021, identifies its mission as supporting commissioning activities, educating future generations about Pearl Harbor and the battleship, and maintaining a connection between the submarine’s crew and Arizona throughout the vessel’s service.
Chandler Unified School District (CUSD) Governing Board member Kurt Rohrs is calling for Board President Patti Serrano to step down, accusing her of attempting to impose a land acknowledgment at board meetings and graduation ceremonies without the board’s concurrence. His proposed resolution comes as the board is scheduled to consider approving the acknowledgment at its September 9 meeting.
The district’s current agenda lists Serrano’s proposal as Item 9.01, “Possible Action to Approve CUSD Land Acknowledgement.” The proposal requests approval to include the acknowledgment at every governing board meeting and in all district graduation ceremony programs.
The proposal initially appeared as an information item on the August 19 agenda, announcing that the practice would begin September 9. According to the district’s draft minutes, board member Ryan Heap requested that it return at the next meeting as an action item.
The district’s proposal describes the acknowledgment as a “meaningful expression of respect and recognition” honoring Indigenous peoples’ sovereignty, history, and contributions. Serrano defended the practice during the August discussion.
Rohrs’ resolution alleges that Serrano attempted to introduce the acknowledgment without the board’s agreement and created division through politically motivated activity unrelated to academic performance.
In the resolution, Rohrs wrote that Serrano “has abused her authority as Board President” and “should immediately step down as Board President and be replaced by another Board Member who can faithfully carry out those duties.” The document contains no recorded vote or adoption date.
Rohrs also criticized Serrano for declining to recite the Pledge of Allegiance in the resolution. Video obtained from meeting attendees in April 2025 showed Serrano standing with her hand over her heart without reciting the pledge. The report said Serrano declined to discuss her reasons during public comment because the matter was not on the agenda and offered to follow up personally with the community member who raised it.
In his written request to remove the item, Rohrs argued that the acknowledgment would inject political and social activism into district business.
“This is an arbitrary decision that was never discussed or approved by the board,” Rohrs said during the August meeting. “There is no district policy that either requires or allows this. Land acknowledgment can be considered as a progressive socialist partisan political performance piece that has nothing to do with improving academic performance of our students.”
In his written removal request, Rohrs alleged that the acknowledgment appeared to violate provisions of A.R.S. § 15-112 and A.R.S. § 41-1494. “This statement is also divisive and promotes negative stereotypes and guilt-shaming regarding certain other ethnic groups,” he wrote.
Serrano disputed Rohrs’ contention that the acknowledgment would violate state law, arguing that the acknowledgment concerns sovereign Native nations and pointing to similar practices at Arizona’s public universities and community colleges.
The dispute also involved Rohrs’ decision to speak during public comment as a private citizen and taxpayer. The draft minutes record Serrano warning that the attorney general’s office had discouraged board members from switching roles during meetings because of potential Open Meeting Law concerns and confusion over whom they represent.
Rohrs responded that he had a right to speak and would not be intimidated into silence. Serrano said she was relaying the attorney general’s guidance and that her remarks were not intended to intimidate him, as noted in the minutes, which remain a draft pending board approval.
CUSD already maintains a “Land Acknowledgement 2025” section on its Indigenous Education Program website. The page identifies the district’s location as ancestral land of the Piipaash, Akimel O’odham, Gila River, Salt River, Pima, Maricopa, and Yaqui tribes and includes a land acknowledgment video.
Board members Barb Mozdzen and Claudia Mendoza expressed support for the acknowledgment during the August discussion, citing respect for Indigenous history, Native students, and the district’s community.
The September 9 public meeting is scheduled to begin at 6:30 p.m. at 1525 W. Frye Road in Chandler. The action portion is tentatively scheduled for 8:20 p.m. The agenda notes that listed times are approximate.
Three Arizona House Republicans have requested weekly, in-person briefings from Arizona Department of Water Resources (ADWR) Director Thomas Buschatzke on Colorado River negotiations, seeking the same information provided to Gov. Katie Hobbs.
In a September 4 letter, Reps. Gail Griffin (R-LD19), Neal Carter (R-LD15), and Chris Lopez (R-LD16) asked Buschatzke to meet with them and relevant agency staff and legal counsel at least once a week. The lawmakers proposed Tuesdays at 2 p.m., while offering to arrange another mutually agreeable time.
The request follows the federal government’s decision on Colorado River operations for 2027 and 2028, which drew mixed reactions from Arizona officials. Arizona would absorb approximately 61% of the total reductions across the three Lower Basin states, with a 760,000-acre-foot reduction compared with California’s 440,000 and Nevada’s 50,000.
Griffin chairs the House Natural Resources, Energy & Water Committee, where Lopez serves as its vice chair, and Carter is speaker pro tempore of the Arizona House of Representatives.
In the letter, the lawmakers cited the Legislature’s authority under A.R.S. § 45-106, which requires legislative approval by concurrent resolution before an agreement between the water resources director and the United States, another state, or a government involving Arizona’s sovereign rights or claims can take effect.
💧 Did you know?
Arizona’s water future depends on more than one source.
Colorado River water remains critical, but Arizona also relies on groundwater, reclaimed water, conservation, water storage, and new supply projects to support communities and future growth.
“Given our unique legislative role under A.R.S. § 45-106, we believe we are entitled to receive the same briefing you would deliver to the Governor’s office or the Governor herself, free from any filters or withholding of information,” the lawmakers wrote.
The requested meetings would allow members to receive updates, ask questions, and examine the factual, policy, and legal rationale for prospective offers, terms, or decisions. The lawmakers also asked to be informed of developments as they occur.
The letter also references two pieces of correspondence from August. They said Buschatzke confirmed on August 25 that implementing a Lower Basin Agreement would require legislative approval and committed to keeping House and Senate members informed of information relevant to their decision.
— Arizona Department of Water Resources (@azwater) September 4, 2026
The lawmakers also said Hobbs affirmed her commitment to providing relevant updates in an August 26 letter and directed Buschatzke to “continually update” them as requested.
Hobbs plans to call a special legislative session for lawmakers to vote on a water-sharing agreement between Arizona, Nevada, and California.
Hobbs highlighted her administration’s Colorado River negotiations in a June interview with 12 News. After the federal government released its proposed operating guidelines, she urged federal officials to adopt the Lower Basin states’ proposal and distribute water reductions equitably.
In August, the federal government came to an agreement with Arizona and the other Lower Basin states on Colorado River water usage. Under the deal, Arizona will lose about 61%: the most out of the Lower Basin states. The news was met with mixed reactions. Hobbs said the decision protected Arizona from deeper cuts. U.S. Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R-AZ-06) said his initial review indicated the plan avoided the most drastic options previously announced, while U.S. Rep. Greg Stanton (D-AZ-04) described the two-year reprieve as another short-term fix and called for durable agreements.
Scot Mussi, president of the Arizona Free Enterprise Club, called the deal “a total failure of leadership” in a statement posted to X. He stated that the deal “will place most of the cuts on new single family homes while data centers and apartments get unlimited water.” He added, “Conveniently, those big water users happen to be some of your biggest campaign contributors.”
This deal is a total failure of leadership. On top of that, this deal will place most of the cuts on new single family homes while data centers and apartments get unlimited water. Conveniently, those big water users happen to be some of your biggest campaign contributors. https://t.co/pLaenPuDCc
