by Staff Reporter | Sep 22, 2026 | Economy, News
By Staff Reporter |
A new study from the Joint Economic Committee (JEC) found that household inflation has been lower this presidential term than the last.
The JEC published a data brief on Thursday that reflected that the average household faced $2,881 less in additional costs from rising prices during the first 20 months of President Donald Trump’s second term — from January 2025 through August 2026 — than the first 20 months of former President Joe Biden’s term — from January 2021 through August 2022.
That cost difference amounts to an average reduction of nearly 41%.
“The comparison does not mean prices declined during President Trump’s second term,” stated the JEC. “Rather, the analysis finds that the cumulative increase in household costs was substantially smaller than during the comparable period under President Biden.”
During the first 20 months of Biden, the average American household experienced $7,081 in additional costs. Arizona was above this average. The average Arizona household experienced $8,427 in additional costs during that same time frame.
During the first 20 months of Trump, the average American household experienced $4,200 in additional costs. Arizona was below this average. The average Arizona household experienced $4,000 in additional costs during that same time frame, a reduction of $4,427 from the prior administration.
In Arizona, that cost difference between administrations amounts to an average reduction of nearly 52%.
In December 2025, the White House released an analysis reflecting that states experienced a difference in year-over-year inflation based on the political affiliations of their leadership. Conservative-leaning states experienced an overall average 2.5% inflation rate, whereas liberal-leaning states experienced an overall average 3% inflation rate.
Conservative states experienced an average 3.4% year-over-year inflation rate for housing, 2.5% for food and beverage, 3.5% for energy, and 0.7% for transportation, compared to liberal states experiences of 3.6% inflation rate for housing, 2.7% for food and beverage, 5.2% for energy, and 2.5% for transportation.
The consistent rates of heightened inflation rates under liberal governance remained true when distinguishing states based on the political affiliations of the governor and legislature, and state control.
States led by conservative governors experienced 2.3% year-over-year inflation rate overall, 3.2% inflation rate for housing, 2.4% inflation rate for food and beverage, 2.9% inflation rate for energy, and 0.6% inflation rate for transportation.
States led by liberal governors experienced a 3% inflation rate overall, 3.7% inflation rate for housing, 2.7% inflation rate for food and beverage, 5.3% inflation rate for energy, and 2.1% inflation rate for transportation.
States with conservative legislatures experienced a 2.4% inflation rate overall, 3.3% inflation rate for housing, 2.4% inflation rate for food and beverage, 2.9% inflation rate for energy, and 0.6% inflation rate for transportation.
States with liberal legislatures experienced a 3% inflation rate overall, 3.6% inflation rate for housing, 2.7% inflation rate for food and beverage, 5.1% inflation rate for energy, and 2.5% inflation rate for transportation.
States in which the legislature had neither a conservative or liberal majority experienced a 3.1% inflation rate overall, 4.5% inflation rate for housing, 2.7% inflation rate for food and beverage, 7.7% inflation rate for energy, and 0.9% inflation rate for transportation.
States defined as under conservative control experienced a 2.3% inflation rate overall, 3.3% inflation rate for housing, 2.4% inflation rate for food and beverage, 2.9% inflation rate for energy, and 0.6% inflation rate for transportation.
States defined as under liberal control experienced a 3% inflation rate overall, 3.6% inflation rate for housing, 2.7% inflation rate for food and beverage, 5.4% inflation rate for energy, and 2.7% inflation rate for transportation.
States defined as under neither conservative nor liberal control experienced a 2.8% inflation rate overall, 3.8% inflation rate for housing, 2.7% inflation rate for food and beverage, 4.7% inflation rate for energy, and 0.7% inflation rate for transportation.
Arizona was defined as having a conservative affiliation. The state experienced a year-over-year inflation rate of 2.6% overall, 1.8% for housing, 2.6% for food and beverage, 2.3% for energy, and 1.4% for transportation.
The city of Phoenix was also included as a major metro area for that analysis, but it was defined based on the state’s assigned affiliation of “conservative.” The city experienced a year-over-year inflation rate of 1.4% overall, -0.1% for housing, 1.1% for food and beverage, 6.7% for energy, and 0.8% for transportation.
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by Ethan Faverino | Sep 19, 2026 | Economy, News
By Ethan Faverino |
The federal government recorded a nearly $167 billion budget deficit in August, bringing the total shortfall for Fiscal Year 2026 to nearly $2 trillion with one month remaining in the fiscal year.
According to the latest Monthly Fiscal Update released by the Joint Economic Committee (JEC), federal spending exceeded revenues by $166.8 billion in August.
The cumulative deficit from October 2025 to August 2026 reached approximately $1.966 trillion.
Federal outlays have totaled $6.811 trillion so far this fiscal year, while the government has collected approximately $4.845 trillion in revenue. Based on those figures, about 28.9% of federal spending has not been covered by revenues.
The government has spent approximately $1.41 for every $1 collected.
Despite approaching $2 trillion, the year-to-date deficit is slightly below the comparable period last year. Through August of Fiscal Year 2025, the federal government had accumulated approximately $1.973 trillion in deficits, putting the current fiscal year’s total about 0.4% lower.
The federal government ultimately finished FY25 with a $1.775 trillion deficit. The Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) latest projections estimated a $1.853 trillion deficit for FY26, followed by $1.887 in FY27, and $2.080 in FY28.
The current fiscal-year deficit has already surpassed that $1.853 trillion projection with September still remaining.
Spending has continued to increase compared with last year. Federal outlays totaled $526.8 billion in August and reached $6.811 trillion for the fiscal year through the end of the month. That represents an increase of approximately 2.2% from the $6.664 trillion spent during the same period of FY25.
Social Security remains one of the largest areas of federal spending, accounting for $1.526 trillion in outlays through August. Net interest costs have surpassed $1 trillion for the fiscal year, reaching approximately $1.017 trillion.
Other major spending categories include roughly $1.041 trillion for income security and veterans benefits, $979 billion for Medicare, $833 billion for defense, and $655 billion for Medicaid. Foreign aid accounted for $32 billion through August.
Federal revenues have also increased.
The government collected approximately $360 billion in August, bringing FY26 receipts through August to $4.845 trillion. That is about 3.3% higher than the $4.691 trillion collected during the comparable period last year.
Individual income taxes have provided the largest share of federal revenue this fiscal year, totaling $2.548 trillion, or more than half of all receipts. Social security insurance and retirement taxes generated another $1.663 trillion.
Corporate income tax receipts totaled $295 billion through August, while customs duties generated about $167 billion.
The CBO’s February budget outlook projected federal spending of approximately $7.449 trillion and revenues of $5.596 trillion for FY26. Its projections also anticipated deficits remaining near or above $2 trillion in the coming years as federal spending and interest costs continue to rise.
With one month left of FY26, the final September figures will determine the government’s full-year deficit and how it ultimately compares with both FY25 and the CBO’s earlier projections.
Ethan Faverino is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
by Matthew Holloway | Sep 18, 2026 | Economy, News
By Matthew Holloway |
Arizona laws affecting property taxes, deed recording, and county assessor operations took effect Saturday, Sept. 12, the general effective date for the 2026 legislative session. Additional property tax exemptions for disabled veterans and their surviving spouses are scheduled to begin with the 2027 tax year.
“Ensuring the public has clear and timely information about changes in property tax laws is central to our mission,” Maricopa County Assessor Eddie Cook said. “This year’s legislative session brought meaningful improvements for property owners, especially veterans and individuals with disabilities, and protections from deed fraud – an issue that has surged nationwide.”
An earlier measure, HB 2792, took effect Feb. 12 and specified that the full property tax exemption for veterans with a 100% service-connected disability rating applies to their primary residence.
Under HB 4168, the full exemption will also cover a veteran whose service-connected disability status is total disability based on individual unemployability. The law removes household income limits for disabled veterans and eligible surviving spouses, and allows a qualifying surviving spouse to receive the exemption for which the veteran was eligible. Those changes apply beginning with the 2027 tax year.
A separate measure, HB 2120, adds a written Social Security Administration disability determination to the documentation accepted when establishing eligibility for a property tax exemption.
Property owners also face new procedures when recording documents. SB 1479 generally requires valid photo identification when documents are recorded in person at a county recorder’s office or recording kiosk, with exceptions for specified professionals and institutions. It increases the criminal penalty for knowingly recording a forged or false real estate claim and adds a thumbprint requirement for certain notarized documents.
The same law directs county assessors to establish a voluntary system by Jan. 1, 2027, to alert participating owners when the assessor receives notice of a change in property ownership or the owner’s mailing address. The Maricopa County Assessor’s Office said Cook championed the measure.
Other changes address how assessors work with property owners. HB 2173 allows tax officers to accept electronic responses and, when a taxpayer elects to submit one, an electronic notice of claim in property tax error cases. The existing deadlines remain in place, and communications that require certified mail must still be served that way. SB 1294 permits an assessor to retain a property’s classification for up to five years after destruction by a verifiable accident, unless its use changes sooner. That provision applies retroactively to Sept. 13, 2024.
Two laws change agricultural-property inspections. HB 2104 generally bars an assessor from reclassifying or inspecting agricultural property for three years after the owner prevails in a qualifying appeal, subject to specified changes involving the property. HB 2105 requires advance notice of inspections and a copy of the inspection report for property owners, and limits consecutive-year inspections of qualifying agricultural property.
HB 2327 allows eligible people to request broader restrictions on identifying information in county assessor, recorder, and treasurer records. HB 2950 allows counties and municipalities to establish tourism improvement areas funded by assessments on participating lodging businesses.
Finally, SB 1067 prevents certain county abatement liens from being extinguished by a property tax lien sale or foreclosure. Those provisions expire Oct. 1, 2028.
Matthew Holloway is a senior reporter for AZ Free News. Follow him on X for his latest stories, or email tips to Matthew@azfreenews.com.
by Matthew Holloway | Sep 18, 2026 | Economy, News
By Matthew Holloway |
The U.S. Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% in August, accelerating from July’s 0.1% increase, while annual inflation remained at 3.4%, according to the latest release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Gasoline prices accounted for more than one-third of the monthly increase.
In the Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale area, consumer prices increased 2.5% over the year ending in August, below the national rate, but eased back from June’s 2.8%. Local energy prices rose 19.1% over that period, including a 32.5% increase in gasoline prices.
Nationally, gasoline prices increased 3.9% during August, and the broader energy index rose 2.1%. Shelter costs increased 0.3%, while food prices rose 0.1%. Grocery prices were unchanged for the month, and food away from home increased 0.3%.
Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.3% in August following a 0.2% rise in July. Over the preceding 12 months, core prices increased 2.4%, energy prices rose 16.3%, and food prices increased 2.7%.
The national monthly figures are seasonally adjusted. The annual changes are measured before seasonal adjustment.
The Joint Economic Committee (JEC) Republicans’ August inflation update, released this month, provided calculations to two decimal places. It reported monthly headline inflation of 0.40% and core inflation of 0.29%, compared with Cleveland Federal Reserve forecasts of 0.36% and 0.20%, respectively.
The committee’s calculations placed annual headline inflation at 3.40% and annual core inflation at 2.45%. Its report notes that differences in change figures can result from rounding.
Across the four regions identified in the committee’s accompanying release, annual inflation was highest in the Northeast at 3.9%, followed by the Midwest at 3.6%, the West at 3.2%, and the South at 3.1%. In its release accompanying the update, JEC Republicans reported annual inflation of 3.9% in the Northeast, 3.6% in the Midwest, 3.2% in the West, and 3.1% in the South.
Phoenix-area prices increased 0.5% over the two months ending in August. During that period, local energy prices increased 4.6%, food prices declined 1.6%, and prices excluding food and energy rose 0.5%. The local BLS figures are not seasonally adjusted and cover a two-month period.
Over the year, Phoenix-area food prices increased 1.7%, including a 1.0% increase in grocery prices and a 2.5% increase in food away from home. Local core inflation was 1.3%, while shelter prices declined 0.3%.
Inflation-adjusted earnings were mostly steady in August. Real average weekly earnings for employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased 0.16%, while real average hourly earnings declined 0.09%. Over the year, real hourly earnings declined 0.3% and real weekly earnings increased 0.3%.
Matthew Holloway is a senior reporter for AZ Free News. Follow him on X for his latest stories, or email tips to Matthew@azfreenews.com.
by Matthew Holloway | Sep 17, 2026 | Economy, News
By Matthew Holloway |
The U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA) announced last week that it will prioritize applications from small businesses in defense-critical manufacturing industries for its 8(a) Business Development Program as revised eligibility requirements take effect for individually owned firms. The new guidance also calls for restoring financial and business document reviews of applicants.
The priority industries include missile and space vehicle manufacturing, aircraft parts, navigation and guidance systems, electronic components, ammunition, and machine shops. Arizona’s aerospace and defense supply chain includes more than 1,250 companies.
“Arizona is a leader in the aerospace and defense industry and a hub for missiles, space, avionics, navigation, electronics, precision manufacturing, and aircraft-related production, with a supply chain of more than 1,250 aerospace and defense companies,” said SBA Pacific Regional Administrator Steven Snow. “By prioritizing qualified 8(a) applicants in defense-critical industries, SBA is helping Arizona small businesses compete for federal contracts, expand production capacity, strengthen domestic supply chains, and deliver the components and capabilities that support America’s military readiness.”
The 8(a) program provides federal contracting opportunities and business development assistance to qualifying small businesses. The SBA’s certification portal lists benefits including access to sole-source and competitive set-aside contracts, assistance from federal procurement experts, and support from business opportunity specialists.
Under the guidance, the SBA will prioritize application review and processing for businesses operating in 10 designated North American Industry Classification System categories. Along with aerospace, electronics, and ammunition manufacturers, the list includes iron and steel mills, ferroalloy manufacturing, miscellaneous fabricated metal products, and shipbuilding and repair. The priority applies to processing applications for program admission. The SBA’s announcement identifies the eligible industry codes.
“Under President Trump’s leadership and our partnership with Secretary Hegseth on the Smaller War Plants Commission, the SBA is leveraging the 8(a) Program to reindustrialize America and build out the network of small manufacturers and suppliers that equip our warfighters,” SBA Administrator Kelly Loeffler said.
The guidance supports the Smaller War Plants Commission, which the SBA and the Department of War announced August 25 as an effort to strengthen defense industrial production capacity.
A separate final rule published in August removes the regulatory presumption that members of certain racial and ethnic groups are socially disadvantaged. It establishes revised standards for individual applicants to demonstrate disadvantage.
The rule follows a 2023 federal court decision in Ultima Services Corp. v. U.S. Department of Agriculture, which found the presumption unconstitutional and prohibited the SBA from continuing to use it.
Under the revised standards, applicants must provide evidence of discrimination, bias, or favoritism affecting a racial, ethnic, or cultural group and self-certify that they belonged to the affected group and suffered material harm. The regulation defines material harm as lost access to, or diminished opportunities for, economic advancement.
The rule applies to individually owned applicants. It does not change eligibility for businesses owned by tribes, Alaska Native corporations, Native Hawaiian organizations, or community development corporations. The final rule details those distinctions.
The SBA also said it is restoring “potential for success” reviews, including comprehensive evaluations of financial records and business documents intended to assess whether applicants can perform federal contracts. The agency has posted guidance on those reviews through MySBA Certifications.
The agency will return pending applications from individually owned businesses through its “Return to Business” system so applicants can address the revised requirements and provide updated financial records. Applicants will have 45 calendar days to complete the updates and resubmit their applications, the agency said.
Matthew Holloway is a senior reporter for AZ Free News. Follow him on X for his latest stories, or email tips to Matthew@azfreenews.com.
by Matthew Holloway | Sep 13, 2026 | Economy, News
By Matthew Holloway |
A new economic analysis estimates that measures proposed during Arizona’s 2026 legislative session could have imposed at least $31.5 billion in annual costs and reduced employment by more than 424,000 jobs if they had taken effect together.
The 2026 Arizona “Job Killers” report, produced by Common Sense Institute Arizona (CSI) and the Arizona Chamber Foundation, identified 119 legislative measures that the organizations classified as potential tax increases, labor-cost increases, regulatory burdens, or new operating restrictions on Arizona businesses.
A review of the measures’ introduced sponsorship records found that 92 had Democratic lead sponsors and 27 had Republican lead sponsors. One Democratic-led measure also listed Republican sponsors. All 23 measures classified in the report’s labor category had Democratic lead sponsors.
CSI used Regional Economic Models Inc. (REMI) simulation software to produce the statewide estimates. Most individual estimates represent direct, first-order costs, while researchers applied a broader REMI TaxPI+ analysis to selected proposals.
The projections describe hypothetical effects, not recorded losses. The report assumes sudden and simultaneous enactment of the modeled proposals and cautions that actual costs could vary with implementation. None of the 119 measures became law.
The authors wrote, “An initial econometric analysis using CSI’s REMI simulation software suggests enactment of 88 of the 119 bills identified and tracked by the Arizona Chamber would have imposed at least $31 billion in new annual costs on Arizona.”
The report’s methodology footnote gives a different count, stating that CSI limited its quantitative analysis to 31 proposals whose costs could be estimated from tax and fee provisions or existing academic research. It says the remaining proposals could impose additional costs that were not readily estimable for the report.
CSI reported that its economic simulation estimated that simultaneous implementation of the modeled proposals could have reduced statewide employment by 424,400 jobs, or 9 percent; lowered real disposable personal income per resident by as much as $4,100 annually, or 7 percent; and reduced Arizona’s real gross domestic product by $48 billion, or 8 percent, once the effects were fully realized.
The largest estimated cost category consisted of labor measures, with 23 proposals carrying an estimated combined cost exceeding $17.5 billion.
These included proposals to repeal Arizona’s constitutional and statutory right-to-work protections. SCR 1035 and HCR 2022 proposed placing the repeal of Article XXV of the Arizona Constitution before voters. If voters approved the constitutional change, the related HB 2464 would have repealed Arizona’s statutory right-to-work provision.
Article XXV prohibits denying a person employment because of nonmembership in a labor organization and prohibits agreements that exclude people from employment on that basis.
CSI’s modeling assumed repeal would lower Arizona’s projected average annual GDP growth over five years from 3.86 percent to 3.05 percent, a reduction of approximately 21 percent from the baseline growth rate. The model projected between 30,000 and 40,000 fewer jobs.
Other labor proposals included mandatory paid-leave programs, minimum-wage increases, workplace heat regulations, and changes to scheduling, meal breaks, and overtime requirements. The report estimated $1.8 billion in costs from proposed paid-leave programs and up to $1.9 billion from minimum-wage increases.
- HB 2466 would have required overtime compensation for work exceeding eight hours in a workday, double pay for hours beyond 12 in a workday, and additional meal and rest breaks. CSI placed the measure’s estimated annual cost at $2.5 billion.
The report estimated that tax proposals would have imposed a combined cost of nearly $3.8 billion.
- HB 4095 proposed an additional 3.5 percent tax on federal adjusted gross income exceeding $250,000 for single filers and married people filing separately, or $500,000 for married couples filing jointly and heads of household. Revenue would have been divided equally between the Classroom Site Fund and the Emergency Deficiencies Correction Fund.
CSI estimated the measure would have generated approximately $1.5 billion in additional annual tax liability.
- HB 2636 would have retained the state’s 2.5 percent rate on taxable income through $1 million and applied an 8 percent rate to income above that threshold. The report’s narrative incorrectly identifies that proposal as HB 2629; its appendix identifies it correctly.
- Separately, HB 2629 would have increased the minimum annual corporate income tax from $50 to $1,000 for otherwise taxable corporations with at least 50 employees. CSI estimated approximately $3.9 million in additional annual costs.
- SB 1575 would have changed Arizona’s formula for allocating the income of multistate corporations by ending the option to calculate business income using only the sales factor. CSI estimated approximately $292.9 million in annual costs.
- HB 2461 proposed a workforce-development surcharge on businesses with at least 50 employees. The bill set the surcharge at 1 percent of payroll taxes paid during the taxable year. CSI estimated an annual cost of $32.6 million.
Energy and environmental proposals accounted for an estimated $7.1 billion in annual costs, according to the report.
- HB 2551 would have required Arizona electric distribution utilities to generate at least 50 percent of their electricity from renewable sources by January 1, 2035. It also proposed establishing an Office of Resiliency within the governor’s office.
- SB 1385 proposed a similar renewable energy requirement taking effect by January 1, 2036.
CSI estimated that the renewable-generation requirements could have increased electricity costs by approximately $3 billion after accounting for generation and backup-capacity expenses.
The study also examined HB 2467, which would have removed transaction privilege and use-tax exemptions for qualifying data-center equipment. The bill would have required data centers to use renewable electricity with battery storage beginning in 2027 while imposing limits on water-consuming cooling systems.
The report identified 66 measures involving legal or administrative requirements, with an estimated combined cost of $3.3 billion. Those proposals addressed rent regulation, mandatory acceptance of cash, pharmacy benefit managers, consumer refunds, and price restrictions during emergencies.
“No single policy determines the entire direction of an economy, but policy choices compound over time,” CSI Arizona Executive Director Katie Ratlief said. “That’s exactly why we do this analysis every year. A tax here, a new mandate there, another regulatory requirement somewhere else may not seem significant on its own. But put them all together, and the economic picture can change dramatically. Our job is to connect those dots and give Arizonans a clear view of what these policy choices could mean for jobs, investment and the future of our economy.”
The analysis also compared Arizona’s economic performance with Colorado’s. CSI reported that Arizona’s inflation-adjusted GDP has grown at an average rate approximately 20 percent faster than Colorado’s since 2016. Arizona’s average annual population-adjusted net interstate migration increased 18.5 percent since 2020 compared with its average during the previous decade, while Colorado’s comparable measure declined by more than 90 percent, according to CSI.
CSI estimated that Arizona would have approximately 154,405 fewer workers and $26.4 billion less in real GDP if the state had followed Colorado’s economic growth trajectory since 2019. That comparison is also a modeled counterfactual rather than a measurement of losses Arizona experienced.
“Arizona’s economic success is not an accident,” Arizona Chamber President and CEO Danny Seiden said. “It reflects years of policy choices that have kept taxes competitive, preserved a flexible labor environment, cut red tape, and given businesses the confidence to invest and hire here.”
“We’re fortunate none of these bills became law. If they had, Arizona’s competitive advantages could have been dramatically undermined. Arizona’s competitive position is strong, but we can’t take it for granted,” he added.
Matthew Holloway is a senior reporter for AZ Free News. Follow him on X for his latest stories, or email tips to Matthew@azfreenews.com.
