by Ethan Faverino | Mar 10, 2026 | Economy, News
By Ethan Faverino |
The U.S. labor market experienced a sharp downturn in February 2026, with nonfarm payroll employment declining by 92,000 jobs, according to the latest Employment Situation report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, released March 6. This marked a significant reversal of January’s stronger-than-expected performance and fell well short of economists’ consensus forecasts for modest gains.
The Joint Economic Committee highlighted the figures in its Monthly Employment Update, noting that the decline consisted of -86,000 jobs in the private sector and -6,000 in government.
The headline unemployment rate (U-3) rose 0.1% to 4.4% while the broader U-6 measure—which includes underemployed workers—improved slightly, falling 0.2% to 7.9%. The labor force participation rate dipped 0.1% to 62%, and the employment-to-population ratio decreased to 59.3%.
Significant downward revisions to prior months compounded the weaker outlook. December 2025 was revised to show a net loss of 17,000 jobs (from an initial gain of 45,000), and January 2026 was adjusted down by 4,000 to 126,000 jobs. Combined, these revisions reduced reported employment gains for December and January by 69,000 jobs.
Sector performance in February showed mixed results. Gains were led by financial activities (+10,000 jobs) and other services (+8,000 jobs). Losses were concentrated in private education and health services (-34,000 jobs, influenced by strike activity in health care) and leisure and hospitality (-27,000 jobs).
On a year-over-year basis (February 2025 to February 2026), total nonfarm payroll rose by approximately 156,000 jobs, with strong contributions from private education and health services (+658,000) and leisure and hospitality (+126,000). However, notable declines occurred in federal government (-314,000) and trade, transportation, and utilities (-191,000).
Wage growth remained positive amid the slowdown. For all private non-farm employees, average hourly earnings increased 3.84% year-over-year to $37.32, while average weekly earnings rose 4.14% to $1,280.08. Among production and nonsupervisory employees, hourly earnings grew 3.69% to $32.03, and weekly earnings advanced 4.31% to $1,082.61.
The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey data (for December 2025) indicated cooling demand, with nonfarm job openings falling by 386,000 to 6.54 million. Hires rose by 172,000 to 5.29 million, while separations increased by 107,000 to 5.25 million, including modest gains in quits and larger rises in layoffs and discharges.
The data points to emerging softness in the labor market, influenced by temporary factors including the severe winter weather and significant strike activity in health care, though broader indicators like wage growth and a still-low unemployment rate suggest resilience.
Ethan Faverino is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
by Matthew Holloway | Feb 28, 2026 | Economy, News
By Matthew Holloway |
The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Arizona issued a policy statement this week urging state lawmakers to prioritize tax certainty for small businesses in the upcoming legislative session.
In a press release, NFIB Arizona urged Arizona policymakers to “take action and align Arizona’s income tax code with the small business provisions that are permanent in federal law,” and consider tax policy changes this year. The group argued that stable and predictable tax policy is essential for small businesses to plan, invest, and grow.
NFIB Arizona also highlighted concerns about potential tax increases and shifting tax policy, emphasizing that uncertainty in state taxes could discourage investment and expansion by small businesses across Arizona. The organization represents thousands of small business owners in the state.
In its release, NFIB Arizona pointed to the Arizona House and Senate GOP plan to protect taxpayers during the filing season, stating that lawmakers should avoid policies that could lead to higher costs or an unstable tax environment for small business operators.
“It’s good to hear that the legislative majority has the back of small business and will not allow for a surprise tax increase for the 2025 tax year,” NFIB State Director Chad Heinrich said in a statement. “That’s great for 2025, which is in the books.”
He added, “Small businesses are actively operating in 2026 without having the certainty needed to make investments now. We will continue to urge lawmakers to take action and align Arizona’s income tax code with the small business provisions that are permanent in federal law so that Main Street can operate and grow their businesses with certainty.”
NFIB Arizona’s statement follows an ongoing debacle at the Arizona State Capitol over the state’s conformity with 2025 federal tax changes between the Republican-led legislature and Democrat Governor Katie Hobbs. Hobbs vetoed a Republican bill, HB 2785, which would have brought Arizona’s income tax law into full conformity with the federal Internal Revenue Code on Feb. 12. The group said tax certainty would help small businesses make long-term hiring and investment decisions.
At the time, the NFIB wrote in a statement, “Twice, the Legislature has taken responsible action to protect hardworking Arizonans from tax uncertainty. Twice, Governor Hobbs has chosen political gamesmanship instead—turning something as mundane as tax conformity into a partisan game.”
Matthew Holloway is a senior reporter for AZ Free News. Follow him on X for his latest stories, or email tips to Matthew@azfreenews.com.
by Ethan Faverino | Feb 28, 2026 | Economy, News
By Ethan Faverino |
As the 2026 Cactus League Spring Training season kicks off, bringing fifteen Major League Baseball teams to ten stadiums across the Valley, a comprehensive new analysis from the Common Sense Institute (CSI) highlights the significant economic benefits of this annual tradition.
The report estimates that the season, running from February 20 through March 24 with 225 scheduled games, will generate between $210 and $953 million in GDP for Arizona, driven primarily by new spending from out-of-state visitors.
“Spring training is when Arizona’s tourism industry truly steps up to the plate,” wrote Katie Ratlief, Executive Director of CSI. “Each February and March, fans from across the country bring new spending into our hotels, restaurants, and small businesses — supporting jobs, generating tax revenue, and driving measurable economic growth.”
According to the CSI and Cactus League, an estimated 1.8 million fans are expected to flock to venues all over the Valley. About 65% of attendees are projected to come from outside Arizona, injecting fresh dollars into the state’s economy.
Out-of-state visitors—including fans, players, coaches, team staff, and their companions—are anticipated to spend between $210 million and $590 million directly on categories such as lodging, restaurants and bars, groceries, in-state transportation, and game tickets. Key spending breakdowns include:
- Hotels: $74 million to $335 million
- Restaurants and bars: $46 million to $105 million
- Groceries: $23 million to $52 million
- Transportation: $10 million to $45 million
- Game Tickets: Approximately $52 million
This direct spending is expected to ripple through the economy, resulting in:
- Total business sales output: $341 million to $1.6 billion
- GDP Boost: $210 million to $953 million
- Personal income increase: $46 million to $556 million
- Disposable personal income boost: Up to $486 million
- Jobs supported statewide: 668 to 9,697
The report notes that, for the first time, favorable conditions—including strong attendance and potentially higher per-visitor spending—could push the overall economic impact beyond the $1 billion mark this year.
The influx is also projected to generate between $12 million and $33 million in additional State Transaction Privilege Tax (TPT)—Arizona’s equivalent of sales tax—providing a further boost to state and local coffers.
“Arizona’s strong policy environment and world-class quality of life make it possible to attract major recurring events like the Cactus League,” added Ratlief, “and it is a big part of why tourism is a consistent and powerful contributor to our state’s economy.”
Ethan Faverino is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
by Ethan Faverino | Feb 27, 2026 | Economy, News
By Ethan Faverino |
In response to the U.S. Supreme Court’s February decision in Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump, which held that the International Emergency Powers Act (IEEPA) does not authorize the President to impose tariffs, Joint Economic Committee (JEC) Chairman David Schweikert (AZ-01) issued a statement encouraging a shift toward a more stable and growth-oriented tax framework.
In a 6-3 ruling, the Supreme Court invalidated sweeping tariffs imposed under IEEPA, concluding that the statute does not grant the executive branch authority to levy import duties. The Court reaffirmed that Congress holds constitutional authority over tariffs and taxation, rejecting arguments that IEEPA’s provisions governing economic measures during national emergencies extend to imposing duties.
Chairman Schweikert emphasized the broader implications for America’s tax system amid rising federal spending. “As our nation’s spending continues to grow, we must be honest about the math,” he stated. “To sustain essential programs and protect our fiscal health, we need a tax system that produces stable, predictable receipts without stifling growth. Today’s ruling underscores the uncertainty in our current tax framework, uncertainty that limits investment, hiring, and innovation.”
Schweikert advocated for transitioning to a border-adjusted, destination-based cash flow tax (DBCFT) as a superior alternative to tariffs for promoting domestic production and economic competitiveness. “To bring greater stability and competitiveness to our economy, and address tax arbitrage arising from other countries’ tax policies, I believe the U.S. should move toward a border-adjusted, destination-based cash flow tax. In line with the goals of tariffs, a DBCFT supports U.S.-based production and American workers. But tariffs distort markets and reduce overall output. A destination-based cash flow tax achieves these same objectives through a more economically rational, growth-oriented framework.”
He highlighted key advantages of the DBCFT, including immediate deductions for business investments to encourage reinvestment and growth, taxation based on where goods are consumed rather than where they are produced, and border adjustments that tax imports while exempting exports.
This approach, Schweikert noted, discourages offshoring, provides businesses with predictability for long-term planning, and helps ensure stable tax revenues to support increasing federal expenditures.
“I will be holding a hearing on this important topic in the coming weeks,” he added. “America’s long-term prosperity hinges on our ability to keep U.S. companies competitive both at home and globally. A destination-based cash flow tax strengthens that foundation.”
Ethan Faverino is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
by Ethan Faverino | Feb 18, 2026 | Economy, News
By Ethan Faverino |
The Joint Economic Committee released its Monthly Inflation Update for January 2026 last week, highlighting a modest cooling in consumer price pressures as headline inflation declined below expectations.
According to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 2.39% year-over-year in January, down from 2.68% in December 2025. This marks a continued easing trend and comes in slightly below Cleveland Federal Reserve’s forecast of 2.36%.
Core CPI-U, which excludes volatile food and energy components, increased 2.50% over the same period, compared to 2.64% the prior month. Month-over-month, headline CPI-U advanced 0.17% from December to January, while core CPI-U rose 0.30%.
Key drivers included a sharp decline in energy prices, which fell -1.47% month-over-month and -0.14% year-over-year, a drop of 2.44 percentage points from December’s year-over-year figure. Food prices, meanwhile, increased 0.19% monthly and 2.88% annually, up 0.38 percentage points from the previous year.
Inflation continued to ease across all regions in January 2026, though rates varied geographically. The Northeast posted the highest inflation at 2.8%, followed by the West at 2.7% and the Midwest at 2.4%, while the South recorded the lowest rate at 1.9%. Each region experienced a decline from December levels.
The report also highlighted positive developments in workers’ purchasing power. Real average weekly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose 0.53% from December to January and climbed 1.88% year-over-year. Real average hourly earnings increased 0.26% monthly and 1.25% annually. For production and nonsupervisory employees, real weekly earnings grew even more robustly at 2.16% year-over-year.
These gains reflect wages outpacing inflation, providing American workers with improved real income amid moderating price pressures.
Ethan Faverino is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
by Ethan Faverino | Feb 14, 2026 | Economy, News
By Ethan Faverino |
The latest survey from the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) reveals that small business optimism in the U.S. dipped slightly at the start of 2026. The Small Business Optimism Index declined by just 0.2 points in January to 99.3, yet it remains above the 52-year average of 98.
Among the index’s 10 key components, 7 declined, while only 3 improved. The positive standout shift came in expectations for real sales volumes, which jumped by 6 points, with a net 16% of owners now anticipating stronger sales in the coming quarter.
However, uncertainty notably climbed, as the Uncertainty Index increased by 7 points to 91. Much of this rise stemmed from more owners expressing doubt about whether the current environment favors business expansion.
“While GDP is rising, small businesses are still waiting for noticeable economic growth,” stated NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “Despite this, more owners are reporting better business health and anticipating higher sales.”
In Arizona and similar regions, a cautious mood persists, with many business owners hesitant to pursue expansion. NFIB Arizona State Director Chad Heinrich noted that ongoing tax-related uncertainties are adding to these concerns, while NFIB data shows taxes are the leading problem for 18% of business owners.
“The optimism index remains stable, but small business owners remain cautious about the future and whether it’s a good time to expand their operations,” explained Heinrich. “The limbo Main Street Arizonans find themselves in this tax season only exacerbates their uncertainty. Small business owners need tax conformity from policymakers now.”
A new addition to this month’s report, the Small Business Employment Index, registered 101.6 in January—down nearly a point from December but still 1.5 points above its historical average of 100 and marginally higher than the 2025 average. This suggests the labor market for small businesses remains relatively balanced.
According to the NFIB Monthly Jobs Report, overall business conditions showed improvement in owners’ self-assessments, with 14% now rating their operations as excellent (up 5 points) and fewer classifying them as only fair (down 7 points to 27%).
Investment activity picked up as 60% of owners reported capital expenditures over the past six months—the highest share since late 2023—mostly directed toward new equipment.
On the labor front, challenges eased somewhat, with businesses citing labor quality as their top issue; the share fell for the third straight month to 16%, and unfilled job openings dropped to 31% (still above the long-run norm).
Inflationary pressures linger, however, as 26% of owners reported raising prices in January, and 32% plan increases in the next few months.
Ethan Faverino is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
