Arizona’s affordable housing shortage is primarily the result of years of underbuilding after the Great Recession, not the rise of short-term rental (STR) platforms like Airbnb, according to a new report from the Common Sense Institute.
The report, titled “Home Prices, the Great Recession, and the Sharing Economy: Evidence from Arizona and Airbnb,” found that Arizona homebuilders sharply reduced construction following the 2008 housing crash and never returned to pre-recession levels, even as population growth resumed. Permit activity in Arizona fell from nearly 90,000 annual authorizations in 2005 to just 12,600 in 2010. By 2019, the state was still authorizing only about 45,000 new housing units per year, roughly half its pre-recession pace.
According to CSI, Arizona built roughly 38,000 fewer housing units per year between 2008 and 2023 than would have been needed to keep pace with long-term historical trends. Researchers concluded that this persistent gap in construction created a housing deficit that continues to drive up prices across the state.
Before the housing crash, Arizona was building at a rapid pace:
• ~400,000 homes built from 2003–2007 After the Great Recession, construction slowed significantly: • ~211,000 homes built from 2010–2019
— Common Sense Institute Arizona (@CSInstituteAZ) April 16, 2026
While Airbnb and similar platforms have drawn criticism for reducing housing supply, the report found that short-term rentals account for only a small share of Arizona’s housing stock and are concentrated in tourism-heavy markets rather than spread evenly across the state. According to the Arizona Association of Realtors, CSI found “no observable statistical relationship” between the growth of short-term rentals and rising home prices across most Arizona communities.
Then the pandemic hit an already tight housing market. Demand surged as more people looked to move or buy, but supply had not caught up.
• Home prices increased by over 64% from 2019 to 2022
— Common Sense Institute Arizona (@CSInstituteAZ) April 16, 2026
The institute stated that under a new analysis examining “the underlying causes of Arizona’s housing shortage and the role of the short-term rental market,” it found “no consistent statistical relationship between short-term rental growth and home price appreciation across Arizona communities.”
CSI further observed that short-term rentals represent less than 2% of Arizona’s 3.3 million housing units and that, statewide over ten years, “there is no — and sometimes even a negative — relationship between home price increases and the concentration of STRs.”
The report notes that Arizona’s housing market never fully recovered from the collapse of the mid-2000s housing boom. Phoenix-area home values fell by more than 50 percent during the recession, foreclosures surged, and builders dramatically slowed new construction. Although Arizona’s economy and population later rebounded, homebuilding lagged far behind demand.
CSI estimated that as of the second quarter of 2025, Arizona faced an immediate housing shortage of roughly 52,800 units statewide. Using a broader, long-term measure, the organization estimated that the state’s housing supply was short by more than 121,000 units at the time. Maricopa County alone is projected to have a deficit of more than 34,700 homes.
Housing affordability remains a major issue for Arizona families. CSI estimates the average home in Arizona now costs more than $426,000, approximately $53,000 more than it would have if home prices had continued along their pre-pandemic trend. The organization estimates Arizona households now need an annual income of about $95,800 to afford the average home under conventional mortgage guidelines, or roughly 92% of the state’s average household income.
The analysis also finds no consistent statistical relationship between short-term rental growth and home price increases across communities.
The bigger driver is a long-term supply shortage — years in the making, before STRs became a major part of the conversation.
— Common Sense Institute Arizona (@CSInstituteAZ) April 16, 2026
“Arizona’s housing challenge is fundamentally a supply issue,” Glenn Farley, Director of Policy and Research at Common Sense Institute, said in a statement. “Homebuilding slowed dramatically after the Great Recession and has struggled to catch back up, even as Arizona continued adding people and jobs. The data consistently show that when housing production falls behind demand, whether because of permitting constraints, construction slowdowns, or long-term underbuilding, prices rise. Expanding housing supply will be essential to improving affordability across the state.”
The Joint Economic Committee released its Monthly Expenditures Update for March 2026 alongside the advance estimate for first-quarter 2026 Gross Domestic Product (GDP), painting a picture of an economy experiencing above-target inflation alongside continued, albeit moderating, real consumption growth and accelerating nominal activity.
From February to March 2026, headline Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index inflation accelerated to 0.66%, up from 0.38% the prior month.
Core PCE inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.29% compared to 0.37% (durable goods +0.42%; nondurable goods +1.98%), while services inflation stood at 0.32%. Gasoline and other energy goods posted a sharp 19.23% month-over-month rise.
Real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) advanced 0.24% ($39.57 billion), in the period. Real spending on goods rose 0.55% ($31.34 billion), led by durable goods (+0.94% or $20.12 billion), while services spending increased a more modest 0.10% ($10.63 billion). The nominal personal savings rate declined 0.3 percentage points to 3.6%.
On the income side, headline personal income grew 0.56% ($149.22 billion). However, real disposable personal income per capita edged down 0.07%, indicating that after-tax income growth lagged behind price increases.
Year-over-year measures showed headline PCE inflation at 3.50% in March 2026 compared to March 2025—well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target—while core PCE inflation registered 3.20%. Both figures accelerated from the prior year’s pace.
GDP Advance Estimate
In its Q1 2026 GDP Advance Estimate the Committee reported that real GDP increased at a 1.99% annualized rate from the fourth quarter of 2025. Current-dollar GDP rose 5.64% annualized, or $433.731 billion, reaching $31.856 trillion. The GDP deflator contributed approximately 3.6 percentage points to nominal growth.
Consumer spending contributed 1.1 percentage points to real GDP growth, while nonresidential fixed investment provided a strong 1.4 percentage point boost. Government spending added 0.7 points, and private inventories contributed 0.4 points. Net exports subtracted 1.3 points, and residential investment was a slight drag at -0.3 points.
Category highlights (Nominal PCE Levels, March 2026)
Housing and utilities: $3,904.5 billion (17.86% of total)
Health care: $3,741.3 billion (17.11%)
Financial services and insurance: $1,822.6 billion (8.34%)
Food and beverages: $1,547.8 billion (7.08%)
Food services and accommodations: $1,526.4 billion (6.98%)
Notable year-over-year nominal increases included financial services and insurance (+10.46%), health care (+8.02%), and transportation services (+9.53%). Gasoline and other energy goods rose sharply both month-over-month (+19.23%) and year-over-year (20.97%).
Ethan Faverino is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
Arizona House Republicans announced passage of a state budget proposal this week, saying it delivers significant tax relief while reducing overall spending compared to Governor Katie Hobbs’ plan.
In a press release, House GOP leaders said the budget includes what they described as one of the largest tax cuts in Arizona history while maintaining funding for core government services.
The proposal has advanced through a series of budget-related bills in the House and Senate, including House Bill 4140, which implements key components of the fiscal year 2026–2027 budget.
According to the release, the proposal is designed to provide cost-of-living relief for families, seniors, workers, and small businesses and would spend approximately $800 million less than Hobbs’ budget.
Republican lawmakers said the plan maintains a balanced budget while prioritizing affordability, drawing a contrast with Hobbs’s budget plan.
“Arizona Republicans are delivering one of the largest tax cuts in state history, and our proposal has the votes to pass both chambers,” Arizona Senate President Warren Petersen (R-LD14) said in a statement.
“For months, Governor Hobbs told us full conformity to federal tax relief, including tax cuts for tipped workers, hourly employees, seniors, and small business owners, was impossible. It’s not,” he continued. “Under President Trump, Washington delivered relief for working Americans, and Arizona Republicans are making sure our taxpayers receive those same Trump tax cuts here at home. Republicans balanced the budget with honest numbers, protected core priorities, and provided real relief for families still struggling with higher costs. Arizona is leading the nation as the only state we are aware of advancing the full Trump tax cuts into law. Despite the Governor’s stunts, Republicans stayed at work and got the job done for our citizens.”
The budget proposal comes amid an ongoing policy dispute between the Republican-controlled legislature and the governor over taxes and spending priorities. Earlier in the session, Republican leaders advanced tax proposals they described as among the largest in state history, while Hobbs outlined a separate approach focused on targeted relief and new revenue mechanisms.
Arizona House Speaker Steve Montenegro (R-LD29) said in a statement, “House and Senate Republicans put forward a serious budget built on facts, not wishful thinking.”
He added, “It delivers major tax relief, eases cost pressures on Arizona families, fully funds core state services, and spends far less than the Governor’s proposal. It does not rely on gimmicks, inflated projections, or money that may never show up to balance the budget. In divided government, responsible leadership means facing the math, making hard choices, and protecting taxpayers. Republicans have done that, putting a workable budget on the table and giving Arizona a clear path to finish the session responsibly. The proposal is ready to move, and so is the Legislature. It is time to pass the bills and deliver for Arizona.”
In a post on X, Montenegro and Petersen said the proposal delivers tax relief, reduces spending, and fully funds core state services.
Arizona Republicans are delivering a serious, balanced budget for our state that spends about $800 million less than Governor Hobbs’ plan.
This plan cuts taxes, lowers costs for families, and fully funds the core services Arizonans rely on, all while staying within a responsible… pic.twitter.com/cRxSfV4nJ6
— Arizona House Republicans (@AZHouseGOP) April 27, 2026
Additional details on specific tax provisions and final budget allocations are expected to be addressed as the proposal moves through the legislative process and negotiations continue with the governor’s office.
On Monday, House Republicans put forth what they called a balanced budget of $17.9 billion.
By Tuesday, Gov. Katie Hobbs said the proposal was all but dead.
The leaders of both chambers characterized their budget as uniquely reflective of total conformity with federal tax law — no other states adopted the entire slate of tax cuts — which Hobbs doubted could be accomplished. They estimated tax relief would amount to $1.5 billion over the next three years, and Republicans claim working families would feel the most benefit from the cuts.
“Politics are easy; governing is harder. We chose governing,” said Sen. President Warren Petersen (R-LD14). “We’re moving a budget that cuts taxes, funds core services, shrinks government, includes priorities both sides have raised, and gives Arizona a full path to finish the session.”
As budget talks have failed to progress in a meaningful way, the legislature stagnates under the weight of a bill moratorium.
In a statement issued Tuesday, Hobbs did acknowledge Republicans for working with her to adopt certain components of her preferred budget like middle class tax cuts and reductions to childcare cost. However, she disputed Republican leaders on their claims of fiscal responsibility.
She accused Republicans of siding with “billionaires, data centers, and special interests” as well as “kicking Arizonans off their healthcare and taking food off their tables.” The governor said she won’t engage in negotiations further unless they adopt her preferred budget.
Contentious aspects of the Republican-proposed budget included cuts to state agency budgets, and SNAP and Medicaid program funding.
“Until they also engage in good-faith negotiations rather than attempting to force through a partisan budget, I will be closely monitoring the situation in the coming days to determine whether the legislative majority is willing to negotiate in good-faith bipartisan negotiations and have the bill moratorium lifted,” said Hobbs.
NEW: @GovernorHobbs reacts to the newly released Republican budget: “Just like in Washington, they’re paying for tax breaks for billionaires, data centers and special interests by kicking Arizonans off their healthcare and taking food off their tables.” pic.twitter.com/8UlFIqa5S1
Hobbs also discussed the budget talks during a press conference for a separate topic on Tuesday, Reentry 2030. Hobbs tentatively praised Republicans for some concessions on their part, but generally was critical of them for balking at her $18.7 billion spending plan. A key part of that plan Hobbs hopes to win through in budget talks concerns draining the public land trust to boost K-12 education funding.
“I’m glad to see the Republicans have shown their budget proposal, there’s some things I’m encouraged about in their proposal, but across-the-board agency cuts is not one of them,” said Hobbs. “I’m hopeful that we can get back to the table and start having real conversations about a budget that works for Arizona.”
Legislative leaders have said Hobbs’ proposal is a nonstarter because the Public Land Trust was intended for long-term funding. Hobbs’ plan intends to renew funding through the yet-approved Proposition 123. Senate President Petersen said Hobbs’ plan wasn’t feasible and would push the state $1.5 million further into debt.
“We’re spending about $800 million less than what the governor has proposed, and the governor has proposed to raise taxes,” said House Speaker Montenegro (R-LD29) in an interview with Fox News.
“[H]er math doesn’t work,” said Petersen.
Hobbs has vetoed tax conformity efforts and walked away from budget negotiations multiple times since the start of the year.
The legislature began hearing budget bills on Tuesday during a joint hearing of the Senate and House Appropriations Committees.
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Arizona’s job growth has fallen behind national trends over the past year, with the state recording a net loss of jobs and rising unemployment, according to a new report from Republicans on the Joint Economic Committee.
The February employment update for Arizona found the state added approximately 11,000 jobs month-over-month, but posted a net loss of about 300 jobs over the previous 12 months.
The report ranked Arizona 24th in the nation for job growth during that period.
Arizona’s unemployment rate rose to 4.6 percent, up from 4.2 percent one year earlier, while the state’s labor force participation rate declined to 61.7 percent, down 0.4 percentage points year-over-year.
Nationally, the labor market continued to expand, with U.S. payrolls increasing by roughly 178,000 jobs in March, while the national unemployment rate remained lower at approximately 4.3 percent.
The report indicates Arizona’s recent performance has lagged the national pace on several key labor metrics, including year-over-year job growth and unemployment trends.
At the same time, the data shows continued monthly job gains in Arizona, reflecting ongoing hiring activity despite weaker longer-term growth.
Other analyses have also pointed to slowing job growth in the state. A December 2025 update from the Common Sense Institute found Arizona’s job growth had moderated significantly compared to earlier post-pandemic years.
Separately, the Arizona Chamber Foundation reported that job growth in 2025 was minimal following revisions to earlier employment data.
Conversely, state officials have highlighted other economic indicators in recent months. Governor Katie Hobbs’ office cited a report ranking Arizona second nationally in overall economic performance, which includes measures such as population growth, domestic migration, and gross domestic product.
The Joint Economic Committee report focuses specifically on labor market conditions, including employment levels, unemployment, and workforce participation.
Congressman Abraham Hamadeh (R-AZ-08) announced his letter to Secretary of Veterans Affairs Doug Collins to adopt common-sense reforms to the VA Home Loan Guarantee Program.
The goal is to eliminate outdated bureaucratic hurdles, reduce unnecessary costs, and better align the program with today’s competitive housing market so more young veterans can achieve the American Dream of homeownership.
In a formal letter to Secretary Collins, Congressman Hamadeh highlighted the Trump administration’s strong progress in refocusing the Department of Veterans Affairs on its core mission: delivering timely benefits, expanding access to quality care, slashing the claims backlog, and eliminating waste. Building on that momentum, Hamadeh expressed confidence that practical improvements to the home loan program will receive serious consideration.
“As my fellow veteran and Committee member, Congressman Van Orden said in our hearing on the subject, we must find ways to eliminate the unnecessary administrative costs of the VA Home Loan program and better align it with other Federal housing programs,” said Congressman Hamadeh. “My family is in real estate. I am very familiar with housing, and I know the unintended consequences of bureaucratic policies that have little to no protective value and ignore the realities of the marketplace.”
Congressman Hamadeh’s recommendations focus on four key areas where the VA Home Loan program lags behind other federal housing programs, such as FHA and USDA loans:
Ending Origination Fee Stacking: VA rules cap lender origination and administrative fees at 1% of the loan amount, intended to cover all lender labor and overhead. However, veterans report lenders charging the full 1% while adding separate itemized fees for processing, underwriting, and other services. This practice amounts to an unfair cash grab that increases costs for veterans and should be strictly enforced.
Modernizing Underwriting Process: The VA continues to rely heavily on manual underwriting, resulting in average closing times of about 10 business days. In contrast, the FHA has implemented semi-automated systems that can approve straightforward loans in as little as 2 to 7 days. The Mortgage Bankers Association has testified that automated underwriting would accelerate the process and help reduce the perception that VA loans are slower and more cumbersome.
Raising the Seller Concessions Cap: The VA currently limits seller concessions to 4% of the home’s reasonable value. Both FHA and USDA programs allow up to 6%. In competitive markets, this 2-percentage point difference can mean the difference between a veteran’s offer being accepted or denied.
Addressing Appraiser Shortages Through Reasonable Certification Requirements: The VA has identified 436 counties in 31 states facing appraiser shortages that delay loans and drive up costs. A major contributor is the VA’s stringent experience requirement of 3 to 5 years for certification, compared to just 12 to 18 months for FHA and USDA programs. Aligning standards would increase the pool of qualified appraisers, shortening waiting times and lowering fees.
These targeted reforms would remove barriers without compromising program integrity, helping young veterans secure homes more efficiently and affordably. By modernizing the program, VA can better fulfill its promise to those men and women who have sacrificed for our country.
Ethan Faverino is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
