by Staff Reporter | May 27, 2026 | Economy, News
By Staff Reporter |
A new analysis of housing data found that less than half of households in Arizona could afford their monthly mortgage in 2025.
A new report from the Common Sense Institute (CSI) determined that only 42% of Arizona households could afford their mortgages last year.
In 2019, 66% of Arizona households could afford their monthly mortgages.
The report also found that the state faces a 56,000-unit housing shortfall, and estimated a long-term cumulative housing deficit of 110,800 units.
Based on those estimations, CSI predicted that it would take well over a century — 119 years — to close the housing gap in Arizona.
CSI found that Arizona households need to make $87,000 annually or nearly 60 hours of work per month at the average hourly wage rate ($35.10) to afford a typical home mortgage. In 2019, the hours of work per month needed to afford an average mortgage amounted to just under 40 hours.
CSI’s analysis found that housing costs remain elevated while building permits have declined.
Although home prices fell by about 3% in 2025, the average home was estimated to cost nearly $42,000 (or 11%) above the pre-pandemic pricing — nowhere close to historical trends or price-to-income ratios. Home prices peaked in 2022.
At present, the average house in Arizona costs nearly $421,000. That figure represents a 3.4% decline from summer 2024 and an 8.6% decline since summer 2022. However, that average home cost sits $142,900 higher than the average cost in 2019.
As of February, the average 30-year mortgage rate was over 6%.
Compared to the earliest data provided (2015), many things have increased greatly for Arizonans: the average home price (doubled), the average mortgage payment (nearly tripled), and the hours of work required (nearly doubled).
The average home pricing in December 2015 was just over $211,100, with a 30-year mortgage rate just under 4%, an average mortgage payment of $800, and the average wage rate of $23.23 requiring 35 hours of work per month.
Average monthly mortgage payments doubled from 2019 to 2025: about $1,000 in 2019 to $2,000 in 2025.
The state issued just under 51,000 residential building permits last year, representing a 14% decline from 2024.
Though lower, last year’s total permits fell within the range for keeping up with population growth and housing demand. CSI estimated that the state needs between 45,000 to 60,000 permits annually to keep pace with growth and demand. Maintaining that safety range doesn’t appear to be the reality shaping up for 2026, however. The state authorized about 3,000 new housing units in January, putting the state on pace to have 36,700 units by the year’s end — well below the necessary annual permit range.
This report on the state of housing was released around the same time as the latest employment report from the Senate’s Joint Economic Committee (JEC).
The JEC found that the unemployment rate remained unchanged in April (4.7%), which is higher than the national unemployment rate (4.3%). The state had an increase in about 8,100 net payroll jobs, one of 42 states to experience an increase; in March, the state had a 1,900-job increase.
Over the past year, Arizona added 13,300 payroll jobs and the unemployment rate rose by 0.5%.
AZ Free News is your #1 source for Arizona news and politics. You can send us news tips using this link.
by Matthew Holloway | May 24, 2026 | Economy, News
By Matthew Holloway |
Arizona added 8,100 nonfarm jobs in April, outperforming the national monthly growth rate and ranking 16th among all states and Washington, D.C., according to a new analysis released by the Common Sense Institute (CSI) Arizona. The report, based on the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics data, found that while Arizona’s labor market showed improvement in April, broader employment growth in the state remains historically weak.
According to CSI’s Arizona Jobs and Labor Force April 2026 Update, Arizona posted a monthly employment increase of 0.25%, placing the state 16th nationally for job growth during the month. CSI reported that Arizona added 13,300 jobs over the past year, representing annual growth of 0.41% and marking the first positive year-over-year employment growth recorded in the state since August 2025.
Despite the gains, CSI’s analysis concluded that Arizona’s labor market continues to face longer-term challenges with growth “unusually and persistently slow.”
The report noted that statewide job growth has remained effectively flat over the past two years and follows several months of mixed labor market performance. In CSI’s previous employment update covering March 2026, Arizona lost 2,600 nonfarm jobs and recorded its seventh consecutive month of year-over-year job losses before April’s rebound returned annual growth to positive territory.
Arizona’s manufacturing sector continued to lag behind broader employment gains, while Mining and Logging posted the fastest monthly growth. The sector added 100 jobs over March, an increase of 0.60%. The report noted that “This is a comparatively small sector but it has shown consistent growth over the last five years; today the state’s mining sector employs 44% more workers than it did in June 2020.”
CSI reported that Arizona lost 500 manufacturing jobs year-over-year in April, while 39 states reported declines in manufacturing employment during the same period. The organization noted that manufacturing weakness has persisted both in Arizona and nationally in recent months.
Labor force indicators, including the unemployment rate and the labor force participation rate (LFPR), have remained largely unchanged since March.
Arizona’s unemployment rate held steady at 4.7% in April, matching the rate recorded in March, while labor force participation remained at 61.4%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics and CSI’s analysis. State labor data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics similarly shows Arizona maintaining a 4.7% unemployment rate during April.
The report also found continued wage growth among Arizona workers.
According to CSI, average private-sector wages in Arizona increased 3.8% year-over-year, ranking the state third nationally in annual wage growth. Arizona workers now earn an average of $36.02 per hour, while real wages, adjusted for inflation, increased approximately 0.8% over the past year. By comparison, the average U.S. worker earned $37.41 per hour in April, an increase of 3.57% year over year.
CSI stated that although April represented a positive month for Arizona employment, the state’s labor market remains substantially weaker than the rapid growth experienced during the post-pandemic recovery period and continues to show signs of slower long-term expansion.
Matthew Holloway is a senior reporter for AZ Free News. Follow him on X for his latest stories, or email tips to Matthew@azfreenews.com.
by Matthew Holloway | May 21, 2026 | Economy, News
By Matthew Holloway |
The Maricopa County Board of Supervisors (MCBOS) approved a tentative $4.1 billion FY 2027 budget this week and scheduled a Truth in Taxation hearing over proposed increases in the county’s primary property tax levy and primary property tax rate.
In a May newsletter emailed to constituents, District 1 Supervisor Mark Stewart described the tentative budget as consistent with a focus “on keeping property taxes low,” despite the increases noted in the county’s Truth in Taxation Calculation.
According to Maricopa County, the tentative budget unanimously approved on May 18 reflects what county officials described as a fiscally conservative approach focused on maintaining services, preserving reserves, and reducing the overall property tax rate for a sixth consecutive year. County officials stated that the county’s tax levy remains $278.4 million below the maximum permitted under Arizona law.
In a press release announcing the tentative budget approval, Board Chair Kate Brophy McGee said county officials faced difficult fiscal decisions amid economic uncertainty.
“There’s no way to sugarcoat this: with an uncertain statewide economic outlook, it’s a tough year to budget,” Brophy McGee said. “To best serve our taxpayers, we had to say ‘no’ to most spending requests.”
Vice Chair Debbie Lesko said the county continues to prioritize limiting tax burdens on residents. “Keeping your taxes as low as possible has always been one of my top priorities,” Lesko said. “This year, we are once again voting to cut your property tax rate, showing that Maricopa County leads the way in fiscal responsibility.”
However, documents accompanying the tentative budget show, as in 2025, the county is proposing an increase in its primary property tax levy that requires a Truth in Taxation hearing under Arizona law.
According to Maricopa County’s FY 2027 Truth in Taxation calculation, the proposed primary property tax levy would increase from $719.1 million, the maximum amount that could be imposed without a Truth in Taxation hearing, to approximately $735.9 million. After excluding new construction, the proposed increase totals approximately $16.46 million, or 2.34%. The proposed primary tax rate would be 1.1463, compared to 1.1201, the maximum rate that could be imposed without triggering a Truth in Taxation hearing.
A home assessed at $100,000 would see the county’s primary property tax rise from $112.01 to $114.63, an increase of $2.62. The county’s Truth in Taxation calculation estimates the proposed levy exceeds the non-hearing threshold by approximately $16.46 million.
The Truth in Taxation analysis provided by the county states that the current primary property tax levy totals approximately $703.9 million and reflects assessed valuation and new construction calculations required under Arizona law.
County officials have emphasized that property valuations are determined separately from the Board’s tax-rate decisions and that Maricopa County receives only a portion of overall property tax collections. In prior Truth in Taxation notices, the county stated that it historically receives approximately 11 cents of every property tax dollar collected.
The Board of Supervisors is scheduled to hold a public Truth in Taxation hearing on June 22, 2026, at 9:30 a.m. at the Board of Supervisors’ Auditorium before final adoption of the FY 2027 budget and tax levy.
Matthew Holloway is a senior reporter for AZ Free News. Follow him on X for his latest stories, or email tips to Matthew@azfreenews.com.
by Staff Reporter | May 19, 2026 | Economy, News
By Staff Reporter |
Arizona’s rising marriage rate is having a positive impact on its poverty rate, according to a new study.
The Center for Arizona Policy (CAP) and the Institute for Family Studies (IFS) published a 75-page report last week assessing the impact of family structures on childhood outcomes, academic performance, and community prosperity across the state.
CAP said the report indicated marriage to be an exceedingly powerful, though heavily underutilized, anti-poverty and life success tool.
Since the first year of the pandemic, 2020, Arizona rose from 39th to 35th on the nation’s Family Structure Index, which measures healthy family structure trends.
In 2011, 58 percent of children in Arizona lived with married parents. In 2024, that number rose to 62 percent.
From 2022 to 2024, 85 percent of Arizona children ages six to 17 living with married parents received A’s and B’s in class, whereas only 64 to 65 percent of children in that age range who lived with a single mother or other family structures received those higher grades.
15 percent of Arizona children living with married biological parents received poor grades (mostly B’s and C’s or lower). Comparatively, over one-third of children from single-mother or other homes received those poorer grades.
Additionally, reading proficiency scores tended to increase within districts with higher shares of married-couple households. 60 percent of students within the Higley Unified School District (HUSD) tested proficient in reading; 77 percent of households with children in that district have married parents.
The Flowing Wells Unified School District — which spends about 60 percent more per student on classroom support than HUSD — had a student reading proficiency rate of 35 percent aligning with its married-parent household with children rate of 54 percent.
The report found that the correlation between higher reading proficiency rates and higher marriage rates proved to be true regardless of race.
Marriage rates also proved to have an impact on Arizona children’s mental health. In non-intact families, girls were 60 percent more likely to be depressed and boys were 57 percent more likely to be depressed.
Arizona children in intact homes were less likely to be living in poverty. Less than one in 10 children from married homes were found to be living in poverty, compared to more than one in five children with cohabitating parents and one in four children in single-mother homes.
Unlike with academic outcomes, race did appear to have an impact on poverty. White children in Arizona had starkly lower poverty rates within both married and unmarried households than non-white children.
Three percent of white children living in intact homes were in poverty in Arizona, compared to 14 percent of Hispanic children, 20 percent of Native American children, and 22 percent of black children.
15 percent of white children living in non-intact homes were in poverty in Arizona, compared to 23 percent of Hispanic children, 27 percent of Native American children, and 31 percent of black children.
CAP President Peter Gentala said in a press release that Arizona, historically a frontier state, has a new frontier with building families.
“The American Dream — the Arizona Dream — is still within reach for every Arizonan, and strong families are how we get there together,” said Gentala. “This report isn’t partisan. It’s a data-driven invitation to every Arizonan who cares about the future of our state.”
The report, titled “Renewing Arizona Families: Why Strong Families Are Central to Arizona’s Future,” was co-produced with University of Virginia researcher and National Marriage Project director W. Bradford Wilcox.
AZ Free News is your #1 source for Arizona news and politics. You can send us news tips using this link.
by Ethan Faverino | May 17, 2026 | Economy, News
By Ethan Faverino |
Arizona continues to experience relatively slower inflation than much of the nation, according to a new analysis from the Common Sense Institute (CSI) examining the latest U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for April 2026.
The Phoenix metro area CPI rose 3% year-over-year in April, up from 1.7% in February. While this marks an acceleration, it remains well below the national rate, which increased from 2.4% to 3.8% over the same period.
The uptick in both local and national figures was driven primarily by surging energy prices amid fallout from the conflict with Iran.
In the Phoenix Metro area, energy costs climbed 22.9% year-over-year, outpacing the national increase of 17.5%. Stripping out this volatile category reveals significantly more moderate underlying price pressures: Phoenix inflation excluding energy stood at 1.7% (down from 1.9% in February), compared to 2.8% nationally (up from 2.6%).
Since April 2019, consumer prices in the Phoenix metro area have risen 34.6%, resulting in an estimated additional $1,647 in monthly costs for a typical Arizona household. Nationally, prices have increased 30.2% over the same seven-year period. In a typical seven-year span, cumulative inflation would be expected to total closer to 14.9%.
More recently, however, Phoenix inflation has tracked below the Federal Reserve’s 2% annual benchmark. Cumulative inflation in the metro area since April 2024 stands at just 3.4%, below the roughly 4% that would align with steady 2% annual growth.
Among the 23 metro areas tracked by the CPI, Phoenix recorded the 8th slowest year-over-year inflation rate in April. For the 14 regions that reported data, it posted the 2nd slowest. A key contributor is the shelter category, where Phoenix inflation measured just 0.8% year-over-year — substantially lower than the national figure of 3.3%.
While headline CPI figures are conventionally used as a proxy for inflation, CSI noted that the metric measures a fixed basket of goods and can be heavily influenced by volatile components like energy.
The recent national spike to 3.8% is largely attributable to relative price increases in energy rather than broad-based inflationary pressure. Core inflation (excluding energy) remains meaningfully lower, though national prices have not returned sustainably to the 2% target.
Sustained inflation above 2% since 2021 reflects structural challenges, including elevated federal deficits. National inflation trends have historically followed federal deficits patterns with a 12 to 24-month lag, and persistent high deficits — averaging $2.2 trillion annually from 2020 to 2024 — continue to complicate efforts to achieve price stability through monetary policy alone.
The annualized federal deficit for early 2026 remains at $2.2 trillion.
Ethan Faverino is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
by Matthew Holloway | May 15, 2026 | Economy, News
By Matthew Holloway |
The Consumer Price Index rose to 3.81 percent year-over-year in April, marking the highest annual inflation rate in nearly three years, according to the latest Monthly Inflation Update released Tuesday by Republicans on the Joint Economic Committee (JEC).
According to the report, headline Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased from 3.26 percent in March to 3.81 percent in April. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose to 2.75 percent year-over-year in April, up from 2.60 percent in March.
April’s increase marked the highest annual headline inflation rate reported since mid-2023, reversing several months of comparatively slower price growth.
The JEC reported that energy prices experienced the sharpest annual increase among major categories, with energy inflation reaching 17.87 percent year-over-year in April, representing a 21.61 percentage point increase compared to April 2025.
Food prices also increased year-over-year. According to the report, food inflation reached 3.18 percent in April, 0.42 percentage points higher than the same period last year.
Regionally, inflation rose across all major areas of the country between March and April. The Northeast recorded the highest inflation rate at 4.4 percent, followed by the Midwest at 4.1 percent and the South at 3.6 percent. The West recorded the lowest regional inflation rate at 3.5 percent.
While the West recorded the nation’s lowest regional inflation rate, the 3.5 percent increase still remained above the Federal Reserve’s long-term two percent inflation target. Declining real wages indicate that inflation continued to outpace earnings growth for many workers during the month, reducing purchasing power despite nominal wage increases.
The JEC’s Monthly Inflation Update compiles and analyzes federal inflation data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The report also found that inflation-adjusted earnings declined during the month.
According to the JEC, real average weekly earnings for all employees decreased by 0.19 percent from March to April. Real average hourly earnings declined by 0.53 percent year-over-year, representing a 0.44 percentage point decrease compared to April 2025.
Matthew Holloway is a senior reporter for AZ Free News. Follow him on X for his latest stories, or email tips to Matthew@azfreenews.com.
