by Ethan Faverino | Apr 18, 2026 | Economy, News
By Ethan Faverino |
Small business optimism weakened in March as a sharp drop in reported profit trends and softening expectations for business conditions weighed on the outlook, according to the latest survey from the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB).
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell 3 points to 95.8, slipping below its 52-year historical average of 98 for the first time since April 2025. At the same time, the Uncertainty Index rose 4 points to 92, significantly above its long-term average of 68.
“The 20% Small Business Deduction and other supportive small business tax provisions in the Working Families Tax Cut Act have had many positives for small business owners,” stated NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “However, the dramatic spike in oil prices has spooked consumers and owners alike. Small business owners are having to absorb those higher input costs and pass them along to their customers.”
Key Declines Drive the Drop in Optimism
The decline in the Optimism Index was driven primarily by two key components: the frequency of reports of positive profit trends, which plunged 11 points to a net negative 25%—the largest contributor to the overall drop—and the net percentage of owners expecting better business conditions, which fell 7 points to a net 11%, marking the third consecutive monthly decline and the lowest reading since October 2024.
Other notable movements included:
Employment Index – Fell from 103.5 to 101.6. While still above the 2025 average (101.2) and historical average (100), the 1.9-point decline signals moderation in labor market conditions.
Capital outlays – Only 16% of owners plan capital investments in the next six months, down 2 points and the lowest level since November 2009.
Sales – A net negative 5% reported higher nominal sales in the past three months (down 6 points), ending four months of improvement. Expectations for higher real sales volumes over the next quarter eased to a net 7%.
Inventory – Plans for inventory investment turned more cautious, reaching a net negative 5%, the lowest since May 2024.
Labor Market and Compensation Trends
Hiring activity showed signs of cooling. A seasonally adjusted 32% of owners reported job openings they could not fill (down 1 point), though this remains well above the historical average of 24%. Skilled worker openings stood at 27%, while unskilled openings rose slightly to 12%.
A net 12% of owners plan to create new jobs in the coming three months, unchanged from February and near the long-term average. Compensation pressures eased modestly: a net 33% reported raising compensation; plans to raise compensation in the next three months fell 4 points to a net 18%—the lowest since July 2025. Despite the declines, both actual and planned compensation remain above historical averages.
Pricing, Supply Chains, and Business Health
Actual price increases ticked up, with a net 25% of owners raising average selling prices (up 1 point and well above the historical average). Planned price hikes, however, declined 4 points to a net 24%. Supply chain disruptions affected 62% of owners to some degree (up 3 points), with most reporting only mild or moderate impacts.
When rating the overall health of their businesses, 13% called it “excellent” (up 1 point), 51% “good” (down 4 points), 30% “fair” (up 4 points), and 4% “poor” (down 1 point).
Top Business Problems and Credit Conditions
Taxes remained the single most important problem for 19% of owners (unchanged and still ranked #1), followed by labor quality at 15% (#2), and inflation at 14% (#3).
Credit conditions stayed relatively stable but tight. The net percent expecting easier credit held at negative 5%, while the average interest rate on short-term loans edged down to 7.9%. Only 24% of owners reported borrowing regularly, a historically low level. Just 11% viewed it as a good time to expand (down 4 points and below the historical average).
“Small business owners are certainly keeping a close eye on the price of oil,” added NFIB State Director Chad Heinrich. “As those cost pressures grow and Arizona’s officeholders dawdle on tax conformity, small businesses are doing everything they can to minimize price increases for their consumers and stay competitive. It’s essential that state policymakers give our small businesses certainty and fully conform with the provisions of the Working Families Tax Cut Act.”
Ethan Faverino is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
by Ethan Faverino | Apr 16, 2026 | Economy, News
By Ethan Faverino |
Earlier this week, the Joint Economic Committee released its Monthly Fiscal Update, revealing that the federal government recorded a deficit of $164.10 billion in March 2026.
For the first half of FY26, cumulative deficits reached $1.169 trillion, meaning 32.01% of outlays were unfunded by revenues, with the government spending $1.47 for every dollar received in revenue.
The year-to-date deficit for FY26 is 10.60% lower than the $1.307 trillion recorded in the same period of FY25. Full-year deficits in FY25 totaled $1.776 trillion.
According to the most recent 10-year budget projections from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), federal deficits are expected to total $1.853 trillion in FY26, $1.887 trillion in FY27, and $2.080 trillion in FY28.
In March, total federal net outlays amounted to $548.96 billion. Cumulative net outlays from the start of the fiscal year through March stood at $3.651 trillion.
This represents a 2.35% increase compared to the $3.567 trillion in net outlays for the same period in FY25. Full-year net outlays in FY2025 totaled $7.010 trillion. The CBO projects net outlays will reach $7.772 trillion in FY27 and $8.151 trillion in FY28.
Total federal net receipts in March were $384.86 billion, bringing year-to-date net receipts to $2.483 trillion. This marks a 9.84% increase from the $2.260 trillion in net receipts recorded in the comparable period of FY25. Full-year net receipts in FY25 were $5.235 trillion. The CBO forecasts net receipts of $5.596 trillion in FY2026, $5.885 trillion in FY27, and $6.071 trillion in FY28.
Key figures for March 2026 show net outlays of $548.96 billion, net receipts of $384.86 billion, and a deficit of $164.10 billion. For FY26 year-to-date through March, net outlays totaled $3.651 trillion, net receipts totaled $2.483 trillion, making the deficit $1.169 trillion.
Ethan Faverino is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
by Matthew Holloway | Apr 15, 2026 | Economy, News
By Matthew Holloway |
A new report from the Common Sense Institute finds that rising costs for housing, groceries, insurance, and child care continue to strain affordability for Arizona families, even as inflation has cooled from its post-pandemic peak.
According to CSI’s latest affordability rankings, Arizona is now the seventh least affordable state in the nation and ranks 45th overall when comparing household incomes to the cost of essential expenses. The state has fallen 12 spots in affordability since 2019, but remains more affordable than Florida, Oregon, New York, Massachusetts, and California, which ranked 46th through 50th, respectively.
CSI’s analysis found that Arizona households retain about 19.6% of their gross income after paying for taxes and basic expenses such as shelter, groceries, health insurance, car insurance, gasoline, and child care. That amounts to about $1,700 per month left over, compared to the national average of 24.7% ($2,170 per month).
The report found that Arizona households are spending about $19,300 more per year on essential expenses than they did in 2019, exceeding the national average increase of $15,400. CSI estimates that Arizona households have effectively lost 3.8% of their gross income to rising prices since before the pandemic.
Housing costs have continued to be the primary cause of affordability challenges in the state. According to a recent report, shelter and utility costs for Arizona households rose by $9,012 annually between 2019 and 2025, a 59% increase that ranked as the fourth-largest increase in the country. Arizona also experienced some of the nation’s fastest-growing grocery and car insurance costs during the same period.
CSI reported that grocery costs rose by $3,375, child care costs by $3,950, health insurance costs by $1,302, car insurance costs by $1,355, and gasoline costs by $313 between 2019 and 2025.
The report found that child care remains a major expense for working families. In Arizona, one full-time working parent must devote about 38% of their gross income to cover child care costs, slightly below the national average of roughly 40%. Nationally, CSI estimated that the average household spends about 16.9% of gross income on child care for preschool- and school-aged children.
“Inflation reports may show things are cooling, but that doesn’t mean life is getting more affordable for Arizonans,” said Zachary Milne, Senior Economist and Research Analyst for the Common Sense Institute AZ. “Our analysis shows the cost of everyday essentials is still significantly higher than it was before the pandemic, and for many families, incomes haven’t kept pace. That gap is what continues to drive the affordability challenges we’re seeing across Arizona today.”
CSI noted that inflation in the Phoenix area has moderated in recent months, with consumer prices rising 2.2% year over year in December. However, according to CSI’s Arizona inflation update, prices in the Phoenix metro area remain 28.9% higher than they were in December 2019, resulting in an additional $1,441 in average monthly costs for a typical Arizona household.
Arizona households are also carrying greater debt, coupled with declining credit scores and rising delinquency rates, at levels significantly higher than the national average, according to CSI’s April 1 report.
CSI detailed its data sources and methodology on its website.
Matthew Holloway is a senior reporter for AZ Free News. Follow him on X for his latest stories, or email tips to Matthew@azfreenews.com.
by Ethan Faverino | Apr 12, 2026 | Economy, News
By Ethan Faverino |
New data from the Common Sense Institute’s Arizona Jobs and Labor Force Update shows Arizona added 5,100 non-farm jobs on a seasonally adjusted basis in January, representing a modest 0.16% increase from December. This gain ranked the state 25th highest among all 50 states and Washington, D.C. Nationally, the U.S. economy added 160,000 jobs in January, with 44 states reporting month-over-month job gains.
However, on a year-over-year basis, Arizona’s labor market weakened significantly. The state lost 15,000 jobs compared to January 2025, marking a stark contrast to the national gain of +0.20%. Arizona ranked 43rd in year-over-year job growth, one of 24 states experiencing annual job losses. This marked the 22nd consecutive month of annual job growth below 2% in Arizona.
Revised data now indicate the state has been experiencing year-over-year job losses since August 2025—the first negative annual reading since September 2024 and the largest percentage decline since March 2021.
Arizona’s manufacturing sector provided a bright spot in January, adding approximately 600 jobs. The state was one of only 20 to add manufacturing jobs that month. However, on an annual basis, manufacturing employment continued to contract, down 0.7% from January 2025, with Arizona among 40 states losing manufacturing jobs over the year.
Unemployment in Arizona edged up slightly to 4.5% in January from a revised 4.4% in December, giving the state the 35th highest unemployment rate nationally. The state’s labor force participation rate held steady at 62%. Nationally, the unemployment rate declined modestly to 4.3% in January and has remained at that level through March 2026.
Sector performance in January varied. The “Other Services” sector led growth, adding 1,300 jobs (+1.3%), though it remains one of Arizona’s smaller supersectors with just 105,000 workers. Construction added 800 jobs month-over-month.
On an annual basis, the Mining and Logging sector continued to outperform, expanding 7.2% since January 2025. Meanwhile, the state’s largest supersector—Trade, Transportation, and Utilities—added only 200 jobs in January. The Information sector posted the weakest annual performance, declining 1.83% year-over-year.
While employment growth has slowed, wage growth in Arizona remained robust at the start of 2026. Average hourly wages rose $0.47 in January, ranking the state 9th nationally for monthly wage growth. Over the past year, Arizona’s average hourly wage increased by $1.10, placing it 29th in the U.S. for annual wage growth. Private Sector workers in Arizona now earn an average of $35.32 per hour, up from $34.22 a year ago.
Nationally, average hourly wages rose 0.35% in January and have continued growing, with the U.S. rate reaching 3.5% year-over-year as of March. Real (inflation-adjusted) wages in Arizona were up 1.2% as of January. Roughly in line with national trends, though they remain down 3.4% since April 2020.
Ethan Faverino is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
by Ethan Faverino | Apr 9, 2026 | Economy, News
By Ethan Faverino |
The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) March Jobs Report, released earlier this week, shows the Small Business Employment Index declined 1.9 points to 101.6. While the index pulled back from February, it remains above the 2025 average of 101.2 and the long-term historical average of 100.
In March, a seasonally adjusted 32% of small business owners reported having job openings they could not fill, down just 1 point from the prior month but still well above the historical average of 24%. Of those, 27% had openings for skilled workers (down 1 point), and 12% had openings for unskilled labor (up 2 points).
“While small businesses are not hiring extensively, they continue to face difficulties related to labor cost and quality,” stated Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “Despite the current stagnant employment growth, economic conditions could change rapidly.”
NFIB State Director Chad Heinrich added, “The numbers tell a clear story — small businesses want to hire, but qualified applicants are hard to find. Add the uncertainty around tax conformity, and owners simply can’t plan with confidence. Inaction at the Capitol has a real cost.”
A seasonally adjusted net 12% of owners reported plans to create new jobs over the next three months, unchanged from February and near the historical average of net 11%. Overall, 52% of owners said they were hiring or trying to hire in March, down 2 points from the previous month.
Among those attempting to hire, 45% reported few or no qualified applicants for the open positions, down 1 point from February. Specifically, 22% reported few qualified applicants (down 3 points) and 23% reported none (up 2 points).
Labor quality remained a top concern, with 15% of small business owners citing it as their single most important problem—unchanged from February and above the historical average of 12%. This marks the first time since December 2016 that labor quality has consistently registered at or above 15%. Meanwhile, 10% of owners identified labor costs as their top problem, up 1 point from February.
On the compensation front, a seasonally adjusted net 33% of owners reported raising worker pay in March, down 1 point from February. Looking ahead, a net 18% plan to increase compensation over the next three months, down 4 points from the prior month and the lowest reading since July 2025. Despite the recent softening, both actual and planned compensation levels remain above their historical averages.
“Employment growth has stagnated, as hiring plans continue to slide toward the historical average,” the report noted. Job openings have reached their lowest levels since the recovery from the COVID-19 recession.
Ethan Faverino is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
by Ethan Faverino | Apr 7, 2026 | Economy, News
By Ethan Faverino |
The Joint Economic Committee released its analysis of the latest Monthly Trade Update, drawing on data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Census Bureau, Treasury Department, and Bureau of Labor Statistics. The U.S. recorded a total trade deficit of $57.35 billion in February 2026, an increase of $2.67 billion from January but 11% below the 12-month average.
The goods trade deficit stood at $84.60 billion in February, up $2.47 billion from the previous month and 8% below the 12-month average. Meanwhile, the services trade surplus narrowed slightly to $27.26 billion, down $204 million from January and 1% below the 12-month average.
Over the 12 months through February 2026, the cumulative U.S. trade deficit totaled $775.60 billion. This included a goods trade deficit of $1.11 trillion, partially offset by a services trade surplus of $329.60 billion.
Largest Goods Trade Deficits and Surpluses
During the 12 months, the United States recorded its largest goods trade deficit with Mexico ($194.61 billion, representing 17.76% of the total goods deficit), Vietnam ($187.93 billion, 17.15%), and China ($172.90 billion, 15.78%).
The largest goods trade surpluses were with the Netherlands ($65.56 billion), the United Kingdom ($42.57 billion), and Hong Kong ($36.16 billion).
Key Export and Import Categories
The top exported goods by value over the 12 months were civilian aircraft, engines, equipment, and parts; pharmaceutical preparations; and non-monetary gold. These categories together accounted for 17.14% of total U.S. goods exports.
On the import side, the leading categories were pharmaceutical preparations, computers, and passenger cars, which together made up 20.25% of the value of all imported goods.
February Trade Flows
Total exports in February reached $314.79 billion, up $12.56 billion from January and 8% above the 12-month average. Goods exports rose to $206.92 billion, while services exports increased to $107.87 billion.
Total imports climbed to $372.14 billion, up $15.23 billion from January and 5% above the 12-month average. Goods imports totaled $291.52 billion, and services imports reached $80.61 billion.
12-month Overview
Over the full 12-month period through February 2026:
- Total exports amounted to $3.49 trillion ($2.25 trillion in goods and $1.25 trillion in services)
- Total imports reached $4.27 trillion ($3.35 trillion in goods and $917.14 billion in services)
The U.S. exported the most to Mexico ($343.77 billion), Canada ($327.91 billion), and the United Kingdom ($105.71 billion), which together represented 34.89% of total exports. Imports were highest from Mexico ($538.38 billion), Canada ($367.20 billion), and China ($275.12 billion), accounting for 35.52% of total imports.
Major export port districts included New York City, NY ($268.93 billion), Houston-Galveston, TX ($242.43 billion), and Laredo, TX ($166.74 billion). On the other side, the leading ports were Los Angeles, CA ($369.30 billion), Chicago, IL ($352.76 billion), and New York City, NY ($319.81 billion).
Import Duties and Tariff Rates
In February 2026, the U.S. collected $21.24 billion in import duties, 13.25% below the 12-month average. Over the 12 months, total calculated duties reached $293.80 billion.
The average applied duty rate in February was 8.48%, 0.56 percentage points lower than the 12-month average. The top categories by duty revenue were passenger cars ($28.62 billion at 16.54%); other parts and accessories of vehicles ($19.12 billion at 14.21%); and electric apparatus ($15.11 billion at 15.09%).
The leading countries of origin by calculated duty revenue were China ($94.80 billion at an average rate of 35.99%), Mexico ($22.93 billion at 4.28%), and Vietnam ($20.84 billion at 10.06%).
Terms of Trade and Currency Movements
The U.S. dollar weakened against several major currencies over the period: down 5.8% against the Chinese yuan, 12% against the euro, 6.4% against the British pound, and 16.1% against the Mexican peso. However, it strengthened 3.6% against the Japanese yen.
Export prices rose 3.54% year-over-year (2.22% for agricultural exports and 3.76% for non-agricultural). Import prices increased 7.44% overall, with fuel imports falling 10.53% while non-fuel imports rose 8.64%.
Ethan Faverino is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
