Inflation Accelerates In March As Consumer Spending Rises

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May 4, 2026

By Ethan Faverino |

The Joint Economic Committee released its Monthly Expenditures Update for March 2026 alongside the advance estimate for first-quarter 2026 Gross Domestic Product (GDP), painting a picture of an economy experiencing above-target inflation alongside continued, albeit moderating, real consumption growth and accelerating nominal activity.

From February to March 2026, headline Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index inflation accelerated to 0.66%, up from 0.38% the prior month.

Core PCE inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.29% compared to 0.37% (durable goods +0.42%; nondurable goods +1.98%), while services inflation stood at 0.32%. Gasoline and other energy goods posted a sharp 19.23% month-over-month rise.

Real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) advanced 0.24% ($39.57 billion), in the period. Real spending on goods rose 0.55% ($31.34 billion), led by durable goods (+0.94% or $20.12 billion), while services spending increased a more modest 0.10% ($10.63 billion). The nominal personal savings rate declined 0.3 percentage points to 3.6%.

On the income side, headline personal income grew 0.56% ($149.22 billion). However, real disposable personal income per capita edged down 0.07%, indicating that after-tax income growth lagged behind price increases.

Year-over-year measures showed headline PCE inflation at 3.50% in March 2026 compared to March 2025—well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target—while core PCE inflation registered 3.20%. Both figures accelerated from the prior year’s pace.

GDP Advance Estimate

In its Q1 2026 GDP Advance Estimate the Committee reported that real GDP increased at a 1.99% annualized rate from the fourth quarter of 2025. Current-dollar GDP rose 5.64% annualized, or $433.731 billion, reaching $31.856 trillion. The GDP deflator contributed approximately 3.6 percentage points to nominal growth.

Consumer spending contributed 1.1 percentage points to real GDP growth, while nonresidential fixed investment provided a strong 1.4 percentage point boost. Government spending added 0.7 points, and private inventories contributed 0.4 points. Net exports subtracted 1.3 points, and residential investment was a slight drag at -0.3 points.

Category highlights (Nominal PCE Levels, March 2026)

Housing and utilities: $3,904.5 billion (17.86% of total)
Health care: $3,741.3 billion (17.11%)
Financial services and insurance: $1,822.6 billion (8.34%)
Food and beverages: $1,547.8 billion (7.08%)
Food services and accommodations: $1,526.4 billion (6.98%)

Notable year-over-year nominal increases included financial services and insurance (+10.46%), health care (+8.02%), and transportation services (+9.53%). Gasoline and other energy goods rose sharply both month-over-month (+19.23%) and year-over-year (20.97%).