A new poll of Arizona’s Second Congressional District shows Republican Rep. Eli Crane leading Democratic challenger Jonathan Nez by 11 points in their rematch for the northeastern Arizona seat.
The Peak Insights survey, conducted August 17-20, found Crane supported by 53% of respondents and Nez by 42%, with 5% selecting neither candidate or saying they did not know.
The poll places Crane above 50% in the initial ballot test with just over two months remaining before the general election.
Per source, Freedom Caucus member Eli Crane up double digits in a competitive northern Arizona district pic.twitter.com/6Yp5Tp9djC
Peak Insights conducted 400 live telephone interviews with a representative sample of 2026 general election voters in the district using landlines and cell phones. The poll carries a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.
The memo does not identify who commissioned or paid for the survey.
The poll’s ballot test listed Crane, Nez, and “Neither/don’t know.” It did not include Libertarian Curtis Goodwin, who advanced from the July 21 Libertarian primary and is also a candidate in the general election.
The Peak Insights memo also reported a positive job-approval rating for Crane. 41% of respondents approved of his performance in Congress, while 25% disapproved.
President Donald Trump was viewed favorably by 51% of respondents and unfavorably by 45%, according to the survey. Among voters who viewed Trump favorably, Crane led Nez 95% to 2%.
Peak Insights also examined the remaining undecided voters and reported that a majority are registered Republicans who supported Trump over former Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election.
The pollster characterized that group as favoring Crane based on its partisan composition and previous voting behavior.
Nez drew 42% in the ballot test, which Peak Insights noted matched Harris’ 2024 share of the presidential vote in the district. The memo reported that Nez received support from 2% of respondents who said they voted for Trump in 2024.
The candidates are meeting for a second consecutive general election after Crane defeated Nez in 2024. Alongside the release of his latest ad in early August, Crane said, “The same D.C. Democrats who look down on rural Arizonans because we don’t share their woke values want to pretend like they all of the sudden care about AZ-02. What they really care about is power.”
Crane won the 2024 contest with 54.5% of the vote to Nez’s 45.5%, a nine-point margin. The Cook Political Report notes that Nez ran ahead of Harris in the district, which Trump carried by approximately 15 points.
Cook currently rates the 2026 race “Likely Republican” and gives Arizona’s Second Congressional District a Republican-leaning R+7 Partisan Voting Index.
Crane, a former Navy SEAL first elected to Congress in 2022, is seeking a third term. Nez served as president of the Navajo Nation from 2019 to 2023.
Both advanced through the July 21 primary. The official state canvass recorded 89,205 votes for Crane in the Republican primary and 65,118 for Nez in the Democratic primary, with neither facing a listed opponent in his respective party contest.
The race has also drawn substantial campaign spending. Federal Election Commission (FEC) records through July 1 show Crane’s campaign with approximately $2.84 million in cash on hand, while Nez reported approximately $1.91 million.
Crane’s campaign had raised approximately $9.48 million during the 2025-26 election cycle through July 1, compared with approximately $3.52 million raised by Nez’s campaign, according to the FEC.
The Second Congressional District covers a large portion of northern and eastern Arizona, including Flagstaff, Prescott, and much of the Navajo Nation.
Arizona Senate President Warren Petersen (R-LD14) launched his first general election advertisement on Monday in his bid to unseat Democratic Attorney General Kris Mayes. The ad highlights tax cuts enacted during Petersen’s tenure as Senate president and endorsements from law enforcement organizations across the state.
The 30-second advertisement, focused around Petersen’s “common sense leadership” message, comes 71 days before Arizona voters head to the polls for the Nov. 3 general election.
“Arizona needs an Attorney General who solves problems,” the ad begins before highlighting Petersen’s legislative record and support from police organizations.
The spot says Petersen “worked with both parties to deliver historic tax relief for Arizona families,” specifically citing the elimination of taxes on residential rent and overtime income.
🚨 FIRST TV AD
As Senate President, I delivered real results for Arizona families, working across the aisle and delivering historic tax cuts. As Attorney General, I’ll bring that same problem-solving approach and actually stand with the officers who protect our communities. The…
Municipal transaction privilege taxes on residential rentals were eliminated through legislation enacted in 2023 during Petersen’s tenure as Senate president. Senate Bill 1184 banned municipal excise taxes on residential leases with the change taking effect on January 1, 2025, and the Arizona Department of Revenue says cities and towns can no longer impose transaction privilege taxes on long-term residential rentals.
The overtime provision came this year through the Fiscal Year 2027 budget agreement negotiated between Governor Hobbs and Republican legislative leaders. The agreement included full conformity with federal tax provisions eliminating state taxes on qualified tips and overtime while increasing the standard deduction and adding other tax deductions and credits.
Petersen, who has served as Senate president since 2023, said his legislative work would inform how he approaches the Attorney General’s Office.
“As Senate President, I’ve proven that I can work with both parties to deliver results for everyday Arizonans,” Petersen said. “I will continue that approach as Arizona’s next Attorney General.”
The ad also highlights Petersen’s backing from law enforcement groups, saying he is supported by “every major law enforcement organization in Arizona.”
Petersen has accumulated endorsements from organizations including the Arizona Fraternal Order of Police, Arizona Police Association, Arizona State Troopers Association, Arizona Conference of Police & Sheriffs, Combined Law Enforcement Associations of Arizona, Maricopa County Colleges Police Officers Association, and Phoenix Police Sergeants and Lieutenants Association.
The campaign also lists endorsements from Maricopa County Sheriff Jerry Sheridan, Maricopa County Attorney Rachel Mitchell, Pinal County Sheriff Ross Teeple, Yavapai County Sheriff David Rhodes, and several county attorneys. Republican attorneys general Raúl Labrador of Idaho, Todd Rokita of Indiana, Mike Hilgers of Nebraska, Derek Brown of Utah, and J.B. McCuskey of West Virginia have also endorsed Petersen.
The Republican nominee also used Monday’s announcement to renew his criticism of Mayes following her decision last week against bringing criminal charges against Hobbs in the Sunshine Residential Homes investigation.
“For four years, we’ve had a chief law enforcement officer who has been more interested in politicizing her office than supporting the brave men and women who protect our communities,” Petersen said. He accused Mayes of failing to hold Hobbs accountable over a “pay-to-play scheme.”
Mayes announced last Friday that her office would not pursue charges after a two-year criminal investigation into allegations involving political contributions connected to Sunshine Residential Homes and substantial increases in the rates the Department of Child Safety paid the foster care provider.
Petersen rejected the conclusion and has argued that Mayes’ handling of the case demonstrates the need for a change in leadership at the Attorney General’s Office.
“Mayes’ destructive brand of leadership will end January 2027,” Petersen said.
The campaign ad itself makes a broader criticism of Mayes without referring specifically to the Sunshine investigation, saying Petersen “delivers for Arizona, while his opponent wastes tax dollars on her political agenda.”
Mayes has also begun advertising in the general election. Her campaign launched a television spot titled “Not Finished” on August 13.
Petersen secured the Republican nomination in the primary against Rodney Glassman, while Mayes advanced unopposed on the Democratic side.
The U.S. Small Business Administration has opened low-interest federal disaster loans to small businesses and private nonprofit organizations that suffered economic losses from the Pocket Fire.
The SBA issued the disaster declaration Aug. 11 after receiving a request from Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs on Aug. 7. The declaration covers Coconino, Gila, La Paz, Maricopa, Mohave, Navajo, and Yavapai counties in Arizona, along with Kane and San Juan counties in Utah.
Businesses and private nonprofits in the affected counties may apply through the SBA’s Economic Injury Disaster Loan program (EIDL). Eligible applicants include small businesses, small agricultural cooperatives, and private nonprofit organizations, including faith-based organizations, that suffered financial losses directly related to the fire.
ICYMI – The @SBAgov is offering low-interest federal disaster loans for Arizonans experiencing economic losses from the Pocket Fire.
Applicants may qualify even if their business did not sustain physical damage to account for lost revenue.
The SBA said agricultural producers, farmers, and ranchers generally are not eligible for disaster loans under the declaration, with an exception for aquaculture enterprises.
Economic Injury Disaster Loans may be used for working capital expenses including fixed debts, payroll, accounts payable, and other bills that could not be paid because of the disaster. Applicants may qualify even if their business or nonprofit did not sustain physical damage.
Loans are available for up to $2 million, with interest rates as low as 4% for businesses and 3.625% for private nonprofits. Repayment terms may extend as long as 30 years. Interest does not accrue, and payments are not required during the first 12 months after the initial loan disbursement.
“SBA loans help eligible small businesses and private nonprofits cover operating expenses after a disaster, which is crucial for their recovery,” said Chris Stallings, Associate Administrator of the Office of Disaster Recovery and Resilience at SBA. “These loans not only help business owners get back on their feet but also play a key role in sustaining local economies in the aftermath of a disaster.”
The SBA determines eligibility, loan amounts, and repayment terms based on each applicant’s financial condition.
“If your business or nonprofit experienced challenges caused by the Pocket Fire, I encourage you to review this avenue of assistance from the SBA,” said Rep. Eli Crane (R-AZ02). “The EIDL program offers eligible applicants low-interest loans, which can help offset losses from this disaster.”
Crane also thanked SBA Administrator Kelly Loeffler and the agency for issuing the declaration and encouraged affected Arizonans to examine the assistance available through the program.
The Pocket Fire began June 19 about seven miles north of Sedona. The fire remained at zero percent containment through June 30, 12 days after it began, and ultimately burned more than 27,000 acres. The Arizona Emergency Information Network reported on July 30 that the fire had reached 100% containment, allowing officials to substantially reduce the surrounding closure area.
The SBA has also opened a Business Recovery Center at the Sedona Chamber of Commerce Administrative Office, 45 Sunset Drive. SBA representatives are available Monday through Friday from 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. to answer questions and assist applicants. Walk-ins are accepted, and appointments may be scheduled in advance.
Crane’s office also publicized the availability of SBA federal disaster loans following the 2025 Dragon Bravo and White Sage fires.
Applications can also be submitted through the SBA’s disaster assistance website. The deadline for Economic Injury Disaster Loan applications related to the Pocket Fire is May 11, 2027.
Democratic congressional candidate JoAnna Mendoza said immigrants are “the only folks” who will perform some jobs in Arizona’s agricultural industry in a resurfaced video highlighted this week by the Republican National Committee (RNC). She also cited construction, service-sector work, and caregiving as industries dependent on immigrant labor.
In the video, Mendoza discussed immigration’s effect on the labor force.
“Immigration. It’s also impacting our economy, labor. Here we have a huge Ag industry. So, you know, the only folks that will really do that are immigrants,” Mendoza said. “Cows that need to be milked twice a day, 365 days a year. You know, they don’t have the labor for it. Construction, service, service industries. We’re talking about caregivers in hospitals or, you know, that go to the home.”
Democrat Congressional candidate JoAnna Mendoza thinks that illegal immigrants are the only people who do manual labor:
“It’s also impacting our economy, labor. Here we have a huge ag industry so the only folks that will really do that are immigrants.” pic.twitter.com/geOdliJvSi
The RNC characterized the remarks as an endorsement of illegal-immigrant labor, but Mendoza did not use the term “illegal immigrants” in the excerpt provided to AZ Free News.
Mendoza, a retired Marine running against Republican Rep. Juan Ciscomani in Arizona’s Sixth Congressional District, has also questioned whether the Trump administration deserves credit for reducing illegal immigration.
In another video cited by Republicans, Mendoza was asked whether the Trump administration deserved any credit for slowing illegal immigration.
After 14 months of zero illegal aliens being released — JoAnna Mendoza lies that illegal immigration hasn’t slowed.
Q: Do you think the Trump admin deserves credit for slowing the flow of illegal aliens coming across the border?
“Unfortunately, we have not seen that play out,” Mendoza responded.
Federal border data show a sharp decline in Border Patrol apprehensions during President Donald Trump’s second administration. U.S. Customs and Border Protection reported that Southwest Border Patrol apprehensions during fiscal year 2025 fell to their lowest level since 1970.
The issue has particular significance in southern Arizona. The Tucson Sector, which covers much of the border area within and near the Sixth Congressional District, experienced a dramatic increase in encounters during the previous border surge. Federal data show encounters rose from approximately 66,000 in 2020 to more than 250,000 in 2022, according to the Department of Homeland Security’s Office of Homeland Security Statistics.
Mendoza’s criticism of federal border enforcement predates her current congressional campaign.
In a 2019 letter to the Casa Grande Dispatch, published by PinalCentral, Mendoza described then-President Trump’s proposed border wall as racist.
“Families across the nation are suffering and racism has found a new shape — the wall,” Mendoza wrote.
“The wall will not only be a waste of taxpayer dollars, but what will the presence of a wall do to future generations?” she continued. “It will be a symbol of racism and hatred. It will ignite anger and violence. As it stands, it’s already tearing our country apart.”
Mendoza wrote the letter shortly before Martin Luther King Jr. Day and connected her criticism of the wall to an encounter in which she said someone made racist remarks toward her.
More recently, Mendoza has sharply criticized Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).
In one video excerpt from Meidas Touch, Mendoza said, “These ICE agents are not living up to their oath.”
Another video shows Mendoza calling for ICE operations to stop. “First and foremost, what we need to address is… we need to stand down for ICE and all ICE operations right now, because an external, independent investigation needs to happen,” Mendoza said.
Arizona Democrat JoAnna Mendoza wants to put innocent Americans at risk to stop ICE from arresting violent criminal illegal aliens.
In a separate clip from Meidas Touch, Mendoza compared conditions under current federal immigration enforcement to those of a developing country. “Like we’re living in a third world country,” Mendoza said. “I never thought I would see the government and its federal law enforcement agency turn against the American people.”
In more recent appearances, however, Mendoza has argued that ICE should continue receiving federal funding while operating under greater oversight. In a March 2026 op-ed highlighted by her campaign, she wrote, “The answer is not to defund law enforcement – it’s to fund law enforcement with intention. That includes ICE.”
The RNC seized on Mendoza’s earlier remarks as the Sixth District race heads toward November.
“JoAnna Mendoza wants Arizona to be full of criminal illegal immigrants and let the inmates run the asylum,” RNC spokesman Nick Poché said. “That is not serious border security – It’s a recipe for more of the chaos southern Arizona already endured.”
Ciscomani has made border security a central issue during his tenure in Congress. His congressional office lists multiple border-focused bills introduced during the 118th and 119th Congresses.
Among them is the Agent Raul Gonzalez Officer Safety Act, H.R. 35, which establishes federal penalties for individuals who intentionally flee Border Patrol agents, or law enforcement officers assisting Border Patrol, in a motor vehicle within 100 miles of the border.
Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes declined to prosecute Gov. Katie Hobbs on Friday over allegations of a pay-to-play arrangement involving Sunshine Residential Homes. The decision prompted Senate President Warren Petersen (R-LD14), Mayes’ Republican opponent in the November election, to accuse the attorney general of protecting a political ally.
Mayes announced that her office found no evidence establishing that political contributions from Sunshine were exchanged for rate increases granted by the Arizona Department of Child Safety (DCS).
“The investigation has not uncovered any evidence of the necessary quid pro quo to support a bribery charge,” Mayes said.
The decision followed a two-year criminal investigation that included 12 interviews and reviews of campaign-finance records, procurement records, bank documents, and state communications comprising more than one terabyte of data and more than 100,000 documents.
The investigation began in June 2024 after Republican Sen. T.J. Shope (R-LD16) requested reviews by both Mayes’ office and the Maricopa County Attorney’s Office following reporting about Sunshine’s political contributions and subsequent rate increases.
Sunshine gave $200,000 to the Arizona Democratic Party before Hobbs’ 2022 election, $100,000 to her inaugural fund, and another $100,000 to the party in August 2023. Sunshine founder Simon Kottoor and his wife, Elizabeth, also contributed to Hobbs’ gubernatorial campaigns. Arizona campaign-finance records showed Hobbs was the only Arizona candidate to receive contributions from either Kottoor during the 2022 and 2024 election cycles.
Sunshine received a mid-contract increase in May 2023 that raised its rate to $195 per bed, followed by an increase to $234 per bed during its April 2024 contract renewal. The Attorney General’s memorandum said the company’s rate increased 56% from 2019 to 2024, although two other providers received larger percentage increases over that period while maintaining lower daily rates.
Investigators found that DCS officials were aware of Sunshine’s political contributions while considering its request. According to the memorandum, then-DCS official Robert Navarro told agency officials during a February 2023 meeting that Sunshine was likely to request an increase and added that the company was a donor to the governor. Internal teams messages also included discussions of Sunshine’s contributions.
Navarro told investigators that the donations created perceived pressure, but the Attorney General’s Office concluded that the pressure resulted from his knowledge of the contributions and found no evidence that Hobbs or her office directed DCS to raise Sunshine’s rate.
The investigation instead concluded that Sunshine’s rate increases “appear as the result of its outsized leverage” over the state’s congregate-care system. The company has been one of Arizona’s largest group-home providers and accounted for approximately 20% to 25% of the state’s non-Division of Developmental Disabilities congregate-care beds, according to the AG memorandum.
DCS officials told investigators that Sunshine had indicated it could shift beds to the federal Office of Refugee Resettlement, which was paying substantially higher rates to house unaccompanied migrant children. Officials expressed concern that losing Sunshine’s capacity would make it more difficult to keep siblings in foster care together. Two other providers had already left state contracts in favor of federal work.
Mayes would not say whether Hobbs would ultimately sit for questioning, while saying the investigation was nearing completion. The memorandum released Friday says Hobbs declined to sit for an in-person interview with investigators but submitted two written statements through her attorneys on Aug. 17, one in her capacity as governor and another as a candidate.
Hobbs wrote that she “has never discussed DCS contract rates, Sunshine’s rates, or any DCS procurement decision” with Kottoor or anyone affiliated with Sunshine. She also denied directing anyone else to have such discussions and said neither Sunshine’s contributions nor other financial support influenced state decisions concerning the company.
Petersen criticized Mayes’ decision in a statement released through Arizona Senate Republicans Friday.
“Mayes’ decision was predictable in an election season,” Petersen said. He accused Mayes of having “shamefully shifted accountability and protected her political ally, turning a blind eye to Hobbs’ misconduct” and said she had placed politics ahead of law enforcement.
Petersen’s office said Sunshine made three $100,000 contributions to the Arizona Democratic Party during Mayes’ investigation. However, AZ Free News previously reported that Sunshine gave the party $200,000 in September and October 2022 and another $100,000 in August 2023, before Mayes opened her investigation in June 2024. The Attorney General’s findings released Friday do not identify any additional Sunshine contributions made during the investigation.
Petersen won the Republican nomination for attorney general in July and will face Mayes in the general election.
Mayes called for new state contracting transparency laws while announcing the decision, saying the absence of evidence sufficient for prosecution did not eliminate concerns about disclosure requirements surrounding state contractors and political donations.
The Legislature has previously sent Hobbs two bills sponsored by Shope addressing those issues. SB 1612 in 2025 would have required companies responding to state requests for proposals or seeking grants to disclose items of value provided during the previous five years to the governor, gubernatorial political committees, inaugural funds, and related entities. It also included procurement-record retention requirements and removed an Arizona Health Care Cost Containment System (AHCCCS) exemption from state procurement laws. Hobbs vetoed the measure.
Shope returned this year with SB 1186, which retained the political-contribution disclosures and record-retention provisions without the AHCCCS provision. Hobbs vetoed the bill in June after lawmakers sent it to her amid the continuing Sunshine investigation.
Hobbs separately proposed her own procurement and campaign-finance changes earlier this year, including limits on political giving while companies were bidding for state contracts and a searchable database of state contractors. The competing proposals did not produce legislation acceptable to both the governor and Legislature before lawmakers adjourned.
Mayes’ criminal division recommended closing its investigation into the alleged pay-to-play arrangement involving Hobbs and Sunshine. The memorandum said the office would keep its investigation open for the limited purpose of assisting the Arizona Auditor General if requested. A separate investigation involving Maricopa County Attorney Rachel Mitchell and the Arizona Auditor General also remains ongoing.
