Holiday retail sales in the United States are projected to exceed $1 trillion for the first time in 2026, according to a new forecast from the National Retail Federation (NRF). The milestone comes despite persistent inflation, rising gas prices, and pressure on household budgets.
The NRF projects that retail sales during November and December will increase 4.2% over 2025, reaching approximately $1.013 trillion. The forecast represents an increase of roughly $41 billion from last year’s holiday sales of $972.3 billion, which grew 3.1% over 2024.
The projected growth comes as retailers prepare for the holiday shopping season amid ongoing economic uncertainty, with consumers continuing to prioritize holiday purchases while remaining cautious about their household budgets.
“This year’s forecast reflects our confidence that consumers will prioritize the holiday season even as they remain mindful of their budgets,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “Retailers are prepared to meet that demand with competitive prices, value and choices for every budget.”
According to the NRF’s historical data, holiday retail sales have increased substantially over the past decade, rising from approximately $629.4 billion in 2016 to the projected $1.013 trillion in 2026.
The forecast also follows several years of continued holiday spending growth, including an 8.8% increase in 2020 and a 12.6% increase in 2021, followed by more moderate increases in subsequent years.
NRF Chief Economist and Executive Director of Research Mark Mathews said consumer spending remains a key driver of economic activity, although financial pressures could affect households differently depending on their income levels.
“We head into the holiday season with strong spending momentum, as consumers remain the bright spot in the economy,” Mathews said. “At the same time, inflation, rising gas prices and pressure on household spending will affect consumers differently across income groups.”
In addition to increased retail spending, the NRF expects retailers nationwide to hire between 325,000 and 375,000 seasonal employees to accommodate holiday demand.
The projected hiring range is consistent with the estimated 356,000 seasonal retail jobs during the 2025 holiday season.
However, the organization noted that retailers are approaching seasonal hiring cautiously as higher interest rates, persistent inflation, elevated consumer debt, and rising fuel costs continue to influence business decisions and household finances.
The NRF’s holiday forecast is developed using economic modeling that considers consumer spending, disposable personal income, employment, wages, inflation, and previous monthly retail sales data.
The organization defines the holiday shopping season as November 1 through December 31 and excludes car dealerships, gas stations, and restaurants from its retail sales calculations.
Ethan Faverino is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
As Arizona families mourned loved ones and homes lost in this weekend’s historic flooding and lawmakers pleaded for emergency relief, Gov. Katie Hobbs went for a morning hike to work off the stress of her reelection campaign.
“Nothing like hitting the trail for a morning hike before hitting the campaign trail,” posted Hobbs.
Nothing like hitting the trail for a morning hike before hitting the campaign trail. pic.twitter.com/t01PglGGne
As Hobbs was hiking, Arizona families were assessing the scope of what they’d lost.
Among them, two men who perished in the floodwaters that ravaged Flagstaff: one who remains unidentified as of this report, and Williams Singavarapu, 73. Another man, 63-year-old Benny Sutton Jr. from Yavapai County, remains missing near the Castle Springs area.
Initial tallies indicate that dozens of homes have been flooded and destroyed.
Floodwaters also trapped residents in the area and destroyed critical infrastructure, resulting in evacuation orders for multiple communities.
FLOODWATERS TRAP RESIDENTS AS ROOFTOP RESCUES UNFOLD IN SEDONA
A dangerous flood emergency is unfolding in Sedona, Arizona, where rapidly rising waters have surrounded homes and left residents stranded.
Porter mountain rd, by the Humane Society. The bridge is gone! People nearby ran as the pipe shifted toward them in the rushing floodwater. pic.twitter.com/7liWJT5Q0d
The flooding in Oak Creek through Sedona is absolutely intense. The water is roaring, roads are gone, and homes near the creek are under serious threat.
As floods ravaged multiple counties throughout the state, Hobbs drove past the displaced residents to head to Tucson for several campaign stops as part of a final push to secure enough votes for reelection.
Lowering costs and standing up for small businesses will always be one of my top priorities. Thank you to Gibson Food Hall & Market for showing @johngiles4AZ and me around their beautiful business today here in Tucson. pic.twitter.com/yTfinu6nOD
As @johngiles4AZ and I have traveled the state, we’ve seen how hard our volunteers have worked to make this moment happen.
I couldn’t be more grateful to everyone who's knocked doors, talked to friends and family, and fought every day for the freedom, opportunity, and security… pic.twitter.com/3vrtSzBJcT
Residents questioned why Hobbs wasn’t taking action to provide emergency relief earlier, noting that their neighbors were trapped by the flooding.
The roads are washed out on all sides of my community to the point that me and all my neighbors are effectively trapped here, but it’s a relief to know it’s a nice day for our governor to go on a recreational hike. https://t.co/NIScvyQarS
Multiple Republican lawmakers had urged the governor to call a state of emergency as early as Sunday night.
State Rep. Walt Blackman (R-LD-7) had pleaded for emergency aid for his constituents and the surrounding areas. Blackman also petitioned Rep. Eli Crane (R-AZ-02) to coordinate federal support for the congressman’s district.
Blackman expressed particular concern for the rural and tribal communities where existing aid and resources are already scarcer than in other parts of the state.
“Families facing rising water need immediate help, clear information, and a reliable path to recovery,” said Blackman. “Rural and tribal communities cannot be overlooked. A washed-out road can cut a family off from medical care, groceries, and emergency services. We need direct coordination with people on the ground to identify unmet needs and get help where it belongs.”
State Rep. Alexander Kolodin (R-LD-3) asked Hobbs to call a state of emergency due to the potential for Arizonans to be stranded with no way to vote.
🚨 Emergency Declaration Needed in Maricopa County To Protect Election Day Access for Flood Impacted Rio Verde Foothills Voters
Washed out roads in Rio Verde Foothills could keep voters from the polls tomorrow.
It wasn’t until later on Monday afternoon that Hobbs fulfilled the request of the lawmakers for emergency relief. The announcement immediately unlocked $200,000 in emergency funding for local communities.
The safety of every Arizonan is my top priority. Today, I declared a Statewide State of Emergency to unlock critical funding and state resources for communities impacted by recent severe storms and flash flooding. We're working closely with local leaders to clear roads, repair… pic.twitter.com/XzUrc5kZRJ
A Maricopa County Superior Court judge has declared Arizona’s cage-free egg rule invalid and unenforceable, finding that the Arizona Department of Agriculture lacked the specific statutory authorization required to impose the mandate.
In his ruling, Judge Scott A. Blaney granted part of the plaintiffs’ motion for summary judgment and denied the state’s competing motion. The challenge was brought by Tucson restaurateur Grant Krueger and Union Hospitality Group, represented by the Goldwater Institute and Pacific Legal Foundation.
The rule, adopted in 2022, required, with limited exceptions, that egg-laying hens in Arizona be housed in cage-free environments and that eggs sold in the state come from hens housed under those conditions. Egg ranches with fewer than 20,000 egg-laying hens were exempt.
Arizona restaurateur sues the "egg bureaucrats" to stop illegal power grab.
Today Goldwater and @PacificLegal are challenging a cage-free egg mandate that bureaucrats imposed with no checks and balances. Read about the lawsuit here: https://t.co/kD0o9rZsPZ
Blaney concluded that the regulation violated A.R.S. § 41-1030(D)(3), which prohibits agencies from making rules that are not specifically authorized by statute.
The Agriculture Department relied on A.R.S. § 3-710(J), which requires its director to “adopt rules for poultry husbandry and the production of eggs sold in this state.” Blaney found that general authority insufficient to authorize the cage-free requirements.
“[T]he language of the statute must not only be broad enough to authorize or permit the mandates/standards that the agency seeks to impose through its rule, that authorization must also be specific enough to suggest that the Legislature contemplated or anticipated the mandates or standards in the proposed rule,” Blaney wrote.
The judge found that the department’s interpretation would effectively remove the word “specifically” from the statutory restriction on agency rulemaking.
“Nothing in the broad language of the statute suggests that the Legislature intended to specifically authorize Defendant to institute an entirely new ban on the sale of all eggs that were not produced in a ‘cage free’ environment, with only a limited exemption for small producers,” the ruling stated.
The plaintiffs also challenged the constitutionality of the Legislature’s delegation of authority to the department. Blaney expressly declined to decide that argument because the statutory issue resolved the dispute. He likewise found it unnecessary to decide whether the rule was reasonably necessary.
The court’s findings addressed the regulation’s anticipated financial effects on consumers and restaurants. Holding other factors constant, Blaney found that cage-free requirements increase egg prices for consumers and retailers.
The ruling cited the department’s own rulemaking estimates, including a projected long-run wholesale increase of 39 cents per dozen and estimated annual consumer costs of $2.71 to $8.79 per person. Those figures were projections associated with the rule, rather than findings of actual statewide losses.
The department had concluded during rulemaking that anticipated public and animal welfare benefits outweighed the potential economic costs.
Union Hospitality Group purchased 104,040 eggs between November 2022 and October 2023, the ruling stated. The court found that the mandate would restrict the restaurant group’s purchasing options and would very likely increase its costs for eggs and egg products.
Blaney also found that Krueger would face restricted purchasing choices and higher prices as an individual consumer. Those anticipated effects supported the plaintiffs’ standing to challenge the regulation.
Implementation had already been delayed. According to the ruling, the department suspended full implementation until 2027 amid bird flu, egg shortages, and rising prices. In March 2025, Gov. Katie Hobbs directed a further delay until 2034. The court cited the department’s expectation that postponement would allow additional producers to supply Arizona and help reduce prices through increased availability.
Goldwater Institute Vice President for Legal Affairs Timothy Sandefur credited HB 2599, the 2021 legislation that established the specific-authorization requirement, as central to the challenge.
“Today’s ruling is not only a win for businesses and consumers in Arizona, but a superb example of how the administrative state—perhaps the single largest threat to constitutional democracy in this country—can be reined in,” Sandefur wrote. “Bureaucratic agencies too often exercise the legislative, executive, and judicial powers together, in violation of one of our most important constitutional principles, in order to write rules that have the force of the law—even though the employees of these agencies have never been elected by the people.”
Sandefur broadened his argument, adding, “And it’s not just questions about food production—which are important enough. Virtually every aspect of our lives today is touched in some manner by the power of the administrative state. That threatens to turn our free society into what we call the Permission Society—in which the individual has no rights, but only permissions, and must ask the government ‘mother may I?’ for every act in his or her life.”
Blaney directed the plaintiffs to submit a proposed judgment by November 20, along with any application for attorney’s fees and taxable costs. Defendants will have 20 days afterward to submit objections or responses. The ruling did not award a specific amount in fees or costs.
The City of Scottsdale celebrated the reopening of Monterra at WestWorld following extensive renovations that transformed the longtime event venue into a fully climate-controlled facility capable of hosting weddings, corporate gatherings, and community events year-round.
City officials and WestWorld partners marked the reopening with a ribbon-cutting ceremony and open house on October 23, highlighting the improvements and the city’s expanded role in managing the facility.
Originally opened in 1990, Monterra operated under a private agreement for more than three decades before the Scottsdale City Council approved transferring operating rights to the city in November 2024.
The venue is now managed directly by the city as part of WestWorld of Scottsdale, providing additional opportunities to host private celebrations, banquets, and receptions associated with the facility’s signature events.
“Bringing Monterra back into city operation gives us an opportunity to make better use of a community asset,” said City Manager Greg Caton. “These improvements expand what WestWorld can offer throughout the year, whether we’re hosting a local celebration or welcoming visitors for one of Scottsdale’s signature events.”
The renovations included the installation of a new heating and cooling system, a new roof, updated indoor and outdoor flooring, and fresh interior and exterior paint. The city also upgraded the facility’s restrooms to improve accessibility for individuals with disabilities.
Located at the western end of WestWorld, Monterra features a ballroom with a full bar, three outdoor function spaces, and patios overlooking the facility’s 20-acre polo field and the McDowell Mountains.
The venue offers approximately 5,580 square feet of space, with a reception capacity of 800 guests, theater-style seating for 500, and banquet seating for 450.
WestWorld’s food and beverage partner, M Culinary Concepts, will provide exclusive catering and bar services for events hosted at the facility.
According to city officials, the improvements are intended to expand Monterra’s availability throughout the year, particularly during Arizona’s warmer months, while accommodating events ranging from, business meetings and conventions to weddings and private celebrations.
“Monterra pairs views of the McDowell Mountains with the convenience of being right here at WestWorld,” said WestWorld Director Cassie Johnson. “With the new climate-control system and updated spaces, we can welcome guests year-round and help event organizers bring everything from a wedding reception to a large banquet together in one location.”
In September, the Scottsdale City Council approved a one-year pilot program establishing daily rental rates of $3,000 Thursday through Sunday and $750 Monday through Wednesday. The rates were developed following a market study of comparable event venues.
Ethan Faverino is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
Buckeye police arrested a man for carrying out an online plot to have a stranger sexually assault his fiancée, the mother of his two children.
Police arrested Zarian Ray Dyer, 23, on Thursday while he was at work. Dyer faces charges of aggravated assault, sexual abuse, attempted sexual assault, kidnapping, and conspiracy.
The Buckeye Police Department issued a statement following Dyer’s arrest explaining that Dyer arranged to have Adrian Nicholas Ayala, a 20-year-old resident of Goodyear, come to their home to sexually assault Bella Torres, his fiancée and the mother of his two children, a 17-month-old daughter and 2-month-old son.
Ayala faces felony charges of kidnapping, sexual abuse, aggravated assault, and burglary.
Buckeye police explained they discovered Dyer’s plot after seizing Dyer and Alaya’s respective electronic devices.
“In reviewing data from those devices, investigators found evidence that Ayala and Dyer were communicating about the planned assault. The motive behind the plot is unknown at this time,” stated the department.
Detectives have arrested the fiancé of a Buckeye mom who was assaulted by a home intruder earlier this month. This assault was part of a plot between the victim’s fiancé and a Goodyear man he met online. More info: https://t.co/qZSi0jaeN2pic.twitter.com/DwCpfpBiud
On Friday, Oct. 16, Torres was home alone preparing her two children for a trunk or treat event when Ayala came to their front door and triggered the house alarm. Dyer had left shortly before Ayala’s arrival to get groceries, according to court records.
According to Torres, Ayala asked to come inside and use her restroom. Torres attempted to close the door on Ayala, but he charged at her and began choking her.
Torres said that Ayala tackled her to the ground and groped her, kicked her daughter, and demanded that she remove her clothing. Torres managed to escape from Ayala’s grasp and run to the open front door, screaming for help.
Surveillance footage from Torres’ home depicts her fighting off Ayala in her driveway. Ayala repeated that he was “on drugs” and insisted that Dyer, whom he referred to as her “boyfriend,” had sent him to her house.
“Your boyfriend sent me,” said Ayala. “He told me you were into this.”
Surveillance footage showed Ayala fleeing after Dyer returned home. Police arrested Ayala the day after the attack. According to court records, a relative of Ayala’s recognized him from a video of the incident posted to social media.
Ayala later claimed that he and Dyer had agreed to the encounter on Reddit, and his attorney claimed that Dyer invited him over as part of a roleplay scenario.
“This is a giant misunderstanding,” said Ayala’s attorney. “He understood from the victim’s boyfriend that this is something that they did and the victim was consenting to [it].”
The judge rejected the justification for the incident offered by Ayala and his attorney.
“I don’t care if her husband [sic] said he could go in there and do that. That’s not a defense,” said the judge. “That’s problematic.”
Records reflect that Dyer is the owner of Zenith Home Intelligence, a security system provider that was registered by Dyer and Torres with the Arizona Corporation Commission last December.
Dyer moved to Arizona from California within the last few years, according to his personal Facebook page.
AZ Free News is your #1 source for Arizona news and politics. You can send us news tips using this link.
The first confirmed animal case of New World screwworm was announced this week.
The Arizona Department of Agriculture (AZDA) announced on Wednesday that the first case of the parasite was discovered in a dog in Cochise County.
New World screwworms are flies that feed on the living tissue of warm-blooded animals. These flies lay their eggs in open wounds and cavities such as the eyes, ears, nose, genitals, or mouth. The eggs hatch into parasitic maggots that burrow into and feed on the flesh.
AZDA reported that a local veterinarian discovered the screwworm during an examination of the animal on Monday, Oct. 26. The canine had a wound on its back that was heavily infested with maggots exhibiting New World screwworm traits.
Further testing through AZDA and federal partners confirmed the presence of the New World screwworm. The dog was under veterinary care as of the press release. AZDA stated that it is working with the treating veterinarian and the dog’s owner to gather additional information in order to determine necessary next steps for epidemiologic investigation and local response.
Ryan Wolker, AZDA state veterinarian, said the agency has been ready to address the eventual discovery of the New World screwworm in Arizona. Wolker expressed confidence in the state’s ability to identify and contain the parasite to prevent rapid spread.
“We have been preparing for this possibility for a long while and are acting swiftly,” said Wolker. “Because of the extensive outreach, coordination, and surveillance already in place, Arizona producers, veterinarians, and pet owners know what to look for and how to report suspected cases. That preparation is allowing us to move quickly to protect animal health in the state.”
These proactive measures reportedly included communications with livestock owners, pet owners, tribal partners, industry stakeholders, and animal health professionals about New World screwworm detections in the Southwestern states. Additionally, AZDA and the University of Arizona’s Arizona Livestock Incident Response Team have conducted dozens of educational events, including tabletop exercises, industry workshops, and train-the-trainer sessions.
In late July, the Department of Agriculture (USDA) announced plans for a new sterile fly dispersal facility at the Douglas Port of Entry, funded with a $25 million investment. The facility would assist the USDA in combatting the spread of the New World screwworm.
Rep. Andy Biggs (AZ-05), Republican nominee for governor, secured the establishment of the new facility. That facility has not yet opened; officials aim to complete it by the end of the year.
As of Thursday, USDA reported 74 total confirmed cases of New World screwworm in animals. 73 of those cases involved domesticated animals, and one involved a wild or feral animal. Apart from the first case in the southeastern corner of Arizona, cases have been confirmed across the southern borders of New Mexico and Texas.
AZDA is asking the public to be vigilant and observant with animals in their care or custody as well as wildlife. Signs of New World screwworm infestation include visible maggots in wounds or body openings; open, draining, or enlarging wounds; foul-smelling injuries; and animals that appear weak, lethargic, isolated, or in distress.
Unusual wounds in domesticated animals that appear to be infested with maggots consistent with New World screwworm should be reported immediately to diseasereporting@azda.gov or by calling AZDA at 602-542-4293 during business hours 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. Monday through Friday.
Signs of New World screwworm in wildlife should be reported immediately, along with GPS coordinates of the animal’s approximate location, to the Arizona Game and Fish Department at 623-236-7201.
AZ Free News is your #1 source for Arizona news and politics. You can send us news tips using this link.
