by Ethan Faverino | Nov 18, 2025 | Economy, News
By Ethan Faverino |
As retailers gear up for Black Friday and the holiday rush, a new analysis of FBI crime data highlights significant variations in shoplifting risks across the U.S., with Oregon emerging as the state most vulnerable to theft this November.
The study examined shoplifting reports per 100,000 residents in November over the past four years (2021-2024).
“As retailers prepare for Black Friday and the peak winter shopping months, these variations underscore the need for tailored, state-specific strategies,” said CEO of Turvallinen Markus Kanerva, whose company conducted the study. “Stores in high-incident areas may need to increase security personnel, deploy advanced surveillance technology, or implement stricter inventory controls. “
Oregon leads the nation with an average of 59.90 incidents per 100,000 people—a staggering 89.68% above the national average of 31.58.
New Mexico ranks second with 57.85 incidents per 100,000 (+83.19% above the national average), followed by Delaware in third with 48.48 (+53.51%). New York and Arizona round out the top five with scores of 47.47 (+50.32%) and 46.91 (48.54%), respectively, showing elevated risks in the Southwest and Northeast regions.
Vermont (46.72, +47.94%), Pennsylvania (46.27, +46.52%), Virginia (45.60, +44.40%), Maryland (42.76, +35.40%), and Tennessee (39.76, +25.90%) complete the top ten.
On the other side of the list is Idaho, which reports the lowest rate in the nation with 15.45 incidents per 100,000 residents—51.08% below the national average. Following is Rhode Island with 18.72 (-40.72%), Alaska with 19.08 (-39.58%), Hawaii with 19.09 (-39.55%), and Maine with 19.21 (-39.17%).
“Relying on broad, national-level policies is no longer sufficient; the data suggests that nuanced approaches and being responsive to local risk patterns are far more effective in preventing theft,” Kanerva added. “As holiday shopping ramps up, businesses that proactively address local shoplifting trends are likely to be better positioned to navigate one of the busiest retail periods of the year.”
Ethan Faverino is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
by Ethan Faverino | Nov 15, 2025 | Economy, News
By Ethan Faverino |
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index declined 0.6 points in October to 98.2 points. Despite the small decline, it remains above its 52-year historical average of 98. In a positive sign, the Uncertainty index dropped 12 points to 88, marking the lowest level this year.
NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg said, “Optimism among small businesses declined slightly in October as owners report lower sales and reduced profits. Additionally, many firms are still navigating a labor shortage and want to hire but are having difficulty doing so, with labor quality being the top issue for Main Street.”
Labor challenges persisted, with a seasonally adjusted 32% of owners reporting unfilled job openings, unchanged for the second straight month, and the lowest since December 2020.
Labor quality was cited by 27% of owners as their single most important problem, up 9 points from September and the highest since November 2021, when it reached 29%. It ranked 11 points above taxes, the second-largest concern. Of the 56% of owners hiring or trying to hire, 88% reported little to no qualified applicants.
Sales and profits declined, as a net negative 13% of owners reported higher nominal sales over the past three months, down 6 points. Positive profit trends fell 9 points to a net negative 25%—the largest contributor to the Index decline.
Among those with lower profits, 33% blamed weaker sales, 16% noted rising material costs, and 9% pointed to both labor costs and price changes.
Pricing pressures eased slightly, with the net percentage of owners raising average selling prices falling from 24% to 21%, though it is still above the historical monthly average of 13%.
30% of small businesses plan to raise prices in the next three months, just down 1 point. An unadjusted 31% reported higher prices, while just 12% reported lower prices.
Inventory gains dropped 3 points to a net negative of 6%. 10% reported stock increases while 15% reported reductions. Supply chain disruptions were cited as the biggest reason for inventory problems, with 60% of owners saying it affected them to some extent.
Capital investments saw 55% of owners reporting outlays in the past six months. Among them, 36% spent on new equipment, 22% on vehicles, and 14% on facility improvements or expansions. 23% plan outlays in the six months.
20% of small business owners expect better conditions, the lowest since April, but well above the historical average of 4%. Only 13% view it as a good time to expand. Business health assessments shifted, with 12% rating their business as excellent, 51% good, 33% fair, and 4% poor.
“A reduction in sales and profits has certainly taken a toll on small business owners’ optimism,” NFIB State Director Chad Heinrich said. “Despite these challenges and the ongoing labor shortage, our members are resilient, with many still trying to create good-paying jobs for Arizonans.”
Ethan Faverino is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
by Ethan Faverino | Nov 13, 2025 | Economy, News
By Ethan Faverino |
A comprehensive new analysis of the U.S. Census Bureau data by the Retirement Living Research Team reveals a seismic shift in American migration patterns, with eight of the top ten states for net population growth located in the South, joined by Arizona and Nevada.
The 2025 report, which segments migration by generation, shows Texas leading the nation with a net annual gain of 72,700 residents. On the other hand, California recorded the largest net loss at 254,332 people, almost double that of the next-ranked state, New York, with a net loss of 130,145 people annually.
The study revealed a unifying trend that every generation is leaving California, which posted the highest net migration across all age groups. High cost of living, along with recent wildfires, were cited as causes of leaving the state.
Arizona continues to solidify its status as a migration powerhouse, welcoming a net total of 55,160 new residents—equivalent to 151 people moving daily. The state saw 234,926 inflows against 179,766 outflows, driven largely by baby boomers and millennials.
- Baby Boomers (ages 60-74): Arizona ranks #2 nationally with a net gain of 13,476
- Millennials (ages 25-44): Net gain of 14,359
- Gen X (ages 45-59): Net gain of 8,001
- Gen Z (ages 18-24): Net gain of 7,695
- Silent Generation (75+) Net gain of 2,363
Florida dominates the retirement migration with a net gain of 37,924 baby boomers annually—the largest single age group migration in the country. Next is Gen X with a net gain of 22,555, signaling early retirement planning.
Younger generations are choosing different paths of migration, with Millennials flocking to Texas (+35,445 net) and Washington state (+18,959), and Gen Z moving to South Carolina (+15,925) and Washington, D.C. (+12,792 net).
The report points to cost of living, climate, tax policies, and job opportunities as primary motivators. Southern states like Texas, Florida, and South Carolina dominate due to affordability and warm weather, while high-cost states like California, New York, and Illinois see sustained outflows.
Ethan Faverino is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
by Jonathan Eberle | Nov 7, 2025 | Economy, News
By Jonathan Eberle |
As more Americans look beyond the traditional 9-to-5 for additional income, new research highlights the U.S. cities most actively exploring side-hustle opportunities — and one Arizona community, Tempe, has earned a spot among the nation’s top hotspots.
A study by Ninja Transfers, which examined monthly Google search activity for more than 80 side-hustle-related jobs across over 170 U.S. cities, found that Atlanta, Georgia, leads the nation in interest for earning extra income. Search terms included queries such as “how to make money with [job],” “does [job] pay well,” and “[job] gig,” spanning roles from online tutoring to podcasting, freelance writing, mystery shopping, and more.
The analysis comes as nationwide searches for “side jobs” hit a record 279,000 in July 2025—underscoring rising demand for supplemental income amid cost-of-living pressures. With an average of 1,914 monthly searches related to side hustles—equating to 384 searches per 100,000 residents—Atlanta ranked first in the country. Georgia’s capital also showed a strong preference for podcasting, online tutoring, and freelance tutoring as the most-researched side-gig categories.
Orlando, Florida, ranked second with 361 monthly searches per 100,000 people, and Florida placed strongly overall, with Fort Lauderdale (275) and Miami (269) also landing in the top 10. Salt Lake City, Utah, secured third place with 319 searches per 100,000 residents, making it the top Western U.S. city for side-hustle interest. Midwestern representation came from St. Louis, Missouri (284), in fourth place, and Minneapolis, Minnesota (270), in seventh.
Rounding out the top five was Birmingham, Alabama, with 283 searches per 100,000 residents.
Tempe ranked 21st in the nation for side-hustle search activity. According to the study, residents conduct about 380 monthly searches tied to side-gig opportunities—equivalent to 204.4 searches per 100,000 people.
With a study population of 185,950, Tempe’s ranking suggests strong local interest in supplemental income streams, particularly among gig-friendly demographics such as college students, young professionals, and remote workers.
Researchers say both economic realities and entrepreneurial ambition are driving this shift. “Many Americans nowadays are looking to explore further than the standard 9-to-5,” said Victor Ilisco, Director of Sales & Operations at Ninja Transfers. “A Bankrate study from back in 2023 found that 39% of Americans have a side hustle, and this number has likely grown since then. They are becoming increasingly accessible thanks to digital platforms and tools, and the barrier for starting one is a lot smaller than what it used to be.”
Southern and Rust Belt cities featured prominently throughout the rankings, signaling a growing appetite for supplemental income in both growth markets and historically industrial regions facing economic transitions.
Jonathan Eberle is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
by Ethan Faverino | Nov 6, 2025 | Economy, News
By Ethan Faverino |
Arizona has emerged as one of the nation’s hotspots for shoplifting, ranking third highest in the United States with 587.83 incidents per 100,000 residents in 2024, according to a new report by Summit Defense.
This rate is 56% above the national average, highlighting a growing challenge for retailers and law enforcement across the state. The study, which analyzed FBI Crime Data Explorer figures for the full 2024 calendar year, underscores Arizona’s position in a troubling trend that has been dominating Western states.
“Shoplifting may seem tempting for many, but it’s just not worth the risk, and when people adopt the mindset of seeing shoplifting as a more insignificant crime, then more people often commit it, and the effect that this can have on businesses is enormous,” said Rabin Nabizadeh of Summit Defense. “This study highlights where shoplifting is an epidemic and needs urgent attention from lawmakers, law enforcement, and local businesses in the state.”
Under Arizona Revised Statutes (ARS) 13-1805, shoplifting is defined as knowingly obtaining goods from a retail establishment with the intent to deprive the owner, including actions like removing items without payment, altering price tags, transferring goods between containers, or concealing merchandise.
Penalties in Arizona escalate based on the value of stolen goods and aggravating factors:
- Less than $1,000: Class 1 misdemeanor (unless a firearm, then Class 6 felony)
- $1,000- $1,999: Class 6 felony
- $2,000 or more: Class 5 felony
- Repeat offenders (two or more prior theft-related convictions in 5 years): Class 4 felony
- Organized retail theft (involving intent to resale or tools to remove merchandise): Class 4 felony
Nationally, New Mexico leads with 777.97 incidents per 100,000 residents—106% above average—followed by Oregon at 675.98 (79% above). Arizona’s third-place ranking puts it ahead of Delaware (581.84 per 100,000, 54% above) and New York (558.55 per 100,000, 48% above).
At the other end of the chart, Idaho reports the lowest rate of shoplifting at 176.90 incidents per 100,000, putting it 53% below the national average. Maine is ranked second with 211.70 per 100,000 (44% below), followed by Rhode Island at 216.25 per 100,000 (43% below), Hawaii at 217.22 per 100,000 (42%), and Alaska at 232.22 per 100,000 (38%).
The 30-39 age group dominates shoplifting demographics in 46 states, including Arizona, accounting for around 30% of all reports nationwide.
Ethan Faverino is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
by Ethan Faverino | Oct 28, 2025 | Economy, News
By Ethan Faverino |
According to the newly released 2025 Retail Returns Landscape, U.S. retailers project that nearly $850 billion in merchandise will be returned this year, equivalent to 15.8% of total sales.
The figure, while substantial, reflects a slight decline from last year’s 16.9% return rate and $890 billion in total returns.
“Returns are no longer the end point of a transaction,” said NRF Vice President of Industry and Consumer Insights Katherine Cullen. “They provide an opportunity for retailers to create a positive experience for customers and can translate to brand loyalty. Retailers are constantly evolving and working to meet customer expectations, and they recognize the importance the returns process plays.”
While overall return rates remain steady, online sales continue to drive higher volumes, with an estimated 19.3% of e-commerce purchases expected to be returned in 2025.
Generational shifts are amplifying these trends, particularly among Gen Z shoppers (age 18-30) who averaged 7.7 online returns over the past 12 months, more than any age group.
Consumer demands for seamless returns are intensifying as 82% of shoppers now cite free returns as a major factor in their purchasing decisions, up from 76% last year. Additionally, 76% of shoppers are more likely to choose the return method offering instant refunds or exchanges.
However, a negative returns experience carries significant consequences: 71% of consumers report they are less likely to shop with a retailer again following a poor encounter, rising from 67% in 2024. Four out of five consumers say they are likely to share their bad experience with friends and family, potentially magnifying reputational damage.
Retailers are navigating these expectations while contending with escalating operational costs and external pressures. Surveyed merchants identified increasing online sales and reducing return rates as their top priorities in 2026.
Key drivers for charging return fees include:
- Processing costs (40%)
- Higher carrier shipping expense (40%)
- Economic uncertainty tied to tariffs (33%)
Return fraud remains another persistent challenge, accounting for 9% of all returns. Among retailers tracking fraud, 71% reported an increase in overstated return quantities, 65% noted “empty box” or “box of rocks” incidents, and 64% saw rises in decoy returns involving counterfeit items. To combat return fraud, 85% of retailers have begun to use AI to detect or prevent fraud from happening.
Notably, 45% of consumers—particularly when dissatisfied— believe that “bending the truth” is acceptable during a return.
David Sobie, co-founder and CEO of Happy Returns, said, “Return policies and their overall process have transformed into a strategic touchpoint for retailers, influencing how younger consumers shop from the outset. To stay competitive amid rising return rates and behaviors like bracketing, retailers must modernize their reverse logistics to enhance customer satisfaction, reduce fraud, and safeguard their operations in today’s high-pressure retail landscape.”
Looking into the holiday season, retailers anticipate 17% of holiday sales will be returned, consistent with prior years. To manage this surge, 49% plan to lean on third-party logistics partners, 43% will hire seasonal staff, and 37% intend to extend return windows.
Ethan Faverino is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
