by Ethan Faverino | Nov 24, 2025 | Economy, News
By Ethan Faverino |
The American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) released its 40th annual Thanksgiving Dinner Cost Survey, revealing welcoming news for American families. The average cost of a classic Thanksgiving meal for 10 people has fallen to $55.18, or $5.52 per person—a decrease of more than 5% from 2024 and the third straight year of declines.
While the drop provides some relief at the checkout, AFBF cautions that prices remain well above pre-2022 levels, following a record-high average of $64.05.
AFBF Economist Faith Parum, Ph.D., said, “It’s encouraging to see some relief in the price of turkeys, as it is typically the most expensive part of the meal. Farmers are still working to rebuild turkey flocks that were devastated by avian influenza, but overall demand has also fallen. The combination will help ensure turkey will remain an affordable option for families celebrating Thanksgiving.”
2025 Classic Thanksgiving Menu Price Changes (for 10 people)
- 16-lb turkey: $21.50 (−16.3%)
- Stuffing (14 oz): $3.71 (−9%)
- Dinner rolls (1 dozen): $3.56 (−14.6%)
- Sweet potatoes (3 lbs): $4.00 (+37%)
- Veggie tray (1 lb carrots & celery): $1.36 (+61.3%)
- Fresh cranberries (12 oz): $2.28 (−2.8%)
- Pumpkin pie mix (30 oz): $4.16 (+0.1%)
- Whipping cream (½ pint): $1.87 (+3.2%)
- Frozen peas (1 lb): $2.03 (+17.2%)
- Pie crusts (2): $3.37 (−0.8%)
- Milk (1 gal): $3.73 (+16.3%)
- Misc. ingredients: $3.61 (−4.7%)
Thanksgiving dinner costs vary significantly across different regions. Families in the South enjoy the nation’s lowest average price for a classic meal for 10 at $50.01, followed by the Midwest at $54.38, the Northeast at $60.82, and the West at $61.75.
When adding ham, russet potatoes, and green beans to create an expanded menu, the South remains the most affordable at $71.20, while the West is the priciest at $84.97.
“We are blessed to live in a country capable of producing such an abundant food supply, and for that we should be thankful,” said AFBF President Zippy Duvall. “Despite modest declines this Thanksgiving, food prices remain a real concern for many families — including farm families. We lost 15,000 farms last year due to low crop prices, high input costs, and trade uncertainty. Every farm lost moves us closer to greater consolidation and reliance on foreign food sources. We urge Congress to address these challenges so America’s farm families can continue growing the safe, affordable food we all depend on every day of the year.”
The White House also celebrated the lower cost of Thanksgiving this year, noting President Trump’s promise to lower prices and cut inflation. Retailers are stepping up with their cheapest Thanksgiving meals in years:
- Walmart’s feast for 10 is down 25% from last year, with its lowest turkey price since 2019 at under $4 per person.
- Lidl’s Thanksgiving meal is $10 less, clocking in at $3.60 per person for 10.
- Aldi’s Thanksgiving meal is $7 cheaper and at 2019 lows, $4 per person for 10.
- Target’s meal for four is at its lowest price ever, at $5 per person.
- Schnucks, one of the nation’s largest privately held supermarket chains, is selling turkeys at prices not seen in over 15 years.
Ethan Faverino is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
by Matthew Holloway | Nov 21, 2025 | Economy, News
By Matthew Holloway |
A new report from the Common Sense Institute (CSI) Arizona examines the state’s management of its state trust lands, set aside in 1912. It makes the case that the lands represent a “$140 Billion Missed Opportunity.” CSI Arizona argues that the beneficiaries of the trust, primarily K-12 education, could benefit from developing the land, while potentially addressing Arizona’s growing demand for developable space.
Released by the nonpartisan research organization, the full report, “Building What Was Promised: Correcting the Missed Opportunity of Arizona’s Land Grant While Addressing its Growing Need for Space,” details the history, current status, and projected impacts of the Arizona State Land Department’s (ASLD) administration of approximately 9.2 million acres of trust land.
In a release posted to X on Wednesday, the CSI wrote, “Arizona’s State Land Trust was supposed to be a generational funding engine for K–12 schools. But new research shows how much potential has been left on the table. CSI finds Arizona could have distributed up to $140 billion to K–12 students if trust land had been sold and reinvested more efficiently over the last century — compared to just $5.8 billion distributed to date.”
Arizona received about 10.96 million acres under The Arizona-New Mexico Enabling Act of 1910, with roughly 8 million acres dedicated to K-12 education—one of the largest such grants in the nation. As of 2024, the state retains approximately 84% of its original grant, compared to an average of 36% across other land-grant states. More than 80% of the remaining trust land is used for low-intensity purposes such as grazing or rights-of-way, generating an average annual return of $8.40 per acre for K-12 beneficiaries.
The report estimates that historical delays in selling and developing trust lands have cost beneficiaries approximately $134 billion in lost distributions over the past century. Had lands been sold early (1913–1923) and proceeds invested at market rates, the K-12 Permanent Land Endowment Trust Fund (PLETF) could be worth $163 billion today, compared to its current combined value (distributions plus assets) of approximately $19 billion.
The ASLD has grown the trust’s value from $811 million in 1995 to $8.7 billion today, with the PLETF reaching over $9 billion in 2024. However, only 80,000 acres statewide are under commercial lease, and since 1998, the department has sold 101,600 acres while initiating new commercial leases on just 588 acres.
The report identifies up to 3 million acres of trust land within a 10-mile radius of population centers and argues that even if a portion of this land were sold or leased strategically, Arizona could add more than 1 million new housing units over the next 20 years easing pressure on a market where prices have risen more than 40% since the pandemic.
An econometric model using REMI TaxPI+ projects that an orderly sale of remaining trust lands over the next decade could generate $18.5 billion in direct revenue, $55 billion in new economic activity, and an additional $65 billion in distributions to public schools over 50 years, while reducing housing prices by approximately 10% over two decades.
Arizona remains one of the most land-constrained states in the country. Roughly 83% of all land within its borders is publicly owned, in the form of federal, tribal, or state trust land, leaving comparatively little privately held land for growth.
CSI argues that this structural constraint has pushed up development costs and slowed housing construction, even as the state’s population has more than doubled over the past 30 years.
The study concluded that modernizing ASLD’s statutory framework, improving development timelines, and exploring new leasing and disposition tools could unlock long-untapped value for taxpayers, schools, and communities.
Matthew Holloway is a senior reporter for AZ Free News. Follow him on X for his latest stories, or email tips to Matthew@azfreenews.com.
by Ethan Faverino | Nov 20, 2025 | Economy, News
By Ethan Faverino |
While entrepreneurship is surging across the United States, a new nationwide study by iPostal1, using U.S. Census Bureau data, reveals that not every state is riding the same wave.
Arizona lands solidly in the middle at 24th place, recording 1,275 business applications per 100,000 residents and a total of 121,091 new filings in 2024—a healthy 58.2% increase since 2019.
That positions Arizona just behind regional neighbor Nevada (23rd, 1,695 per 100,000) and ahead of New Mexico (28th, 952 per 100,000), making it a moderate but steady player in the national entrepreneurial boom.
Nationally, New York tops the list with a staggering 39,422 business applications per 100,000 residents and 291,773 total filings in 2024 alone—nearly doubling Florida in second place (20,461 per 100,000). Florida recorded the highest raw total at 631,896 applications in 2024 (up 61.3% since 2019), followed by Georgia with 242,706 (up 41.1% since 2019).
At the opposite end, North Dakota ranked last with only 95 applications per 100,000 residents—less than 0.25% of New York’s rate. Rounding out the bottom five are Delaware (145 per 100,000), Idaho (156 per 100,000), Vermont (170 per 100,000), and South Dakota (191 per 100,000).
While many states remain sluggish, some showed explosive growth. Wyoming led the nation with a 215.8% surge in applications since 2019, followed by Delaware with a 121.6% increase. Alaska, however, saw the smallest growth in the nation at just 12.2%.
“The U.S. has no shortage of ambition, but opportunity isn’t spread evenly,” said Jeff Milgram, CEO and founder of iPostal1. “In states like New York, Florida, and Texas, entrepreneurship is booming – people are starting businesses, taking risks, and finding opportunity. But other states are still catching up. Sometimes it’s access to funding, sometimes local policy, or just the confidence that new ventures will be supported. Those details matter more than most people think.”
“When small businesses can find funding, mentorship, and a clear path through regulation, as well as the tools and resources to set up their businesses which include virtual mailing addresses and digital mailboxes, we see numbers rise fast,” Milgram concluded, “as we’ve seen not just in Wyoming and Delaware, but across much of the South and Northeast.”
Ethan Faverino is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
by Ethan Faverino | Nov 18, 2025 | Economy, News
By Ethan Faverino |
As retailers gear up for Black Friday and the holiday rush, a new analysis of FBI crime data highlights significant variations in shoplifting risks across the U.S., with Oregon emerging as the state most vulnerable to theft this November.
The study examined shoplifting reports per 100,000 residents in November over the past four years (2021-2024).
“As retailers prepare for Black Friday and the peak winter shopping months, these variations underscore the need for tailored, state-specific strategies,” said CEO of Turvallinen Markus Kanerva, whose company conducted the study. “Stores in high-incident areas may need to increase security personnel, deploy advanced surveillance technology, or implement stricter inventory controls. “
Oregon leads the nation with an average of 59.90 incidents per 100,000 people—a staggering 89.68% above the national average of 31.58.
New Mexico ranks second with 57.85 incidents per 100,000 (+83.19% above the national average), followed by Delaware in third with 48.48 (+53.51%). New York and Arizona round out the top five with scores of 47.47 (+50.32%) and 46.91 (48.54%), respectively, showing elevated risks in the Southwest and Northeast regions.
Vermont (46.72, +47.94%), Pennsylvania (46.27, +46.52%), Virginia (45.60, +44.40%), Maryland (42.76, +35.40%), and Tennessee (39.76, +25.90%) complete the top ten.
On the other side of the list is Idaho, which reports the lowest rate in the nation with 15.45 incidents per 100,000 residents—51.08% below the national average. Following is Rhode Island with 18.72 (-40.72%), Alaska with 19.08 (-39.58%), Hawaii with 19.09 (-39.55%), and Maine with 19.21 (-39.17%).
“Relying on broad, national-level policies is no longer sufficient; the data suggests that nuanced approaches and being responsive to local risk patterns are far more effective in preventing theft,” Kanerva added. “As holiday shopping ramps up, businesses that proactively address local shoplifting trends are likely to be better positioned to navigate one of the busiest retail periods of the year.”
Ethan Faverino is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
by Ethan Faverino | Nov 15, 2025 | Economy, News
By Ethan Faverino |
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index declined 0.6 points in October to 98.2 points. Despite the small decline, it remains above its 52-year historical average of 98. In a positive sign, the Uncertainty index dropped 12 points to 88, marking the lowest level this year.
NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg said, “Optimism among small businesses declined slightly in October as owners report lower sales and reduced profits. Additionally, many firms are still navigating a labor shortage and want to hire but are having difficulty doing so, with labor quality being the top issue for Main Street.”
Labor challenges persisted, with a seasonally adjusted 32% of owners reporting unfilled job openings, unchanged for the second straight month, and the lowest since December 2020.
Labor quality was cited by 27% of owners as their single most important problem, up 9 points from September and the highest since November 2021, when it reached 29%. It ranked 11 points above taxes, the second-largest concern. Of the 56% of owners hiring or trying to hire, 88% reported little to no qualified applicants.
Sales and profits declined, as a net negative 13% of owners reported higher nominal sales over the past three months, down 6 points. Positive profit trends fell 9 points to a net negative 25%—the largest contributor to the Index decline.
Among those with lower profits, 33% blamed weaker sales, 16% noted rising material costs, and 9% pointed to both labor costs and price changes.
Pricing pressures eased slightly, with the net percentage of owners raising average selling prices falling from 24% to 21%, though it is still above the historical monthly average of 13%.
30% of small businesses plan to raise prices in the next three months, just down 1 point. An unadjusted 31% reported higher prices, while just 12% reported lower prices.
Inventory gains dropped 3 points to a net negative of 6%. 10% reported stock increases while 15% reported reductions. Supply chain disruptions were cited as the biggest reason for inventory problems, with 60% of owners saying it affected them to some extent.
Capital investments saw 55% of owners reporting outlays in the past six months. Among them, 36% spent on new equipment, 22% on vehicles, and 14% on facility improvements or expansions. 23% plan outlays in the six months.
20% of small business owners expect better conditions, the lowest since April, but well above the historical average of 4%. Only 13% view it as a good time to expand. Business health assessments shifted, with 12% rating their business as excellent, 51% good, 33% fair, and 4% poor.
“A reduction in sales and profits has certainly taken a toll on small business owners’ optimism,” NFIB State Director Chad Heinrich said. “Despite these challenges and the ongoing labor shortage, our members are resilient, with many still trying to create good-paying jobs for Arizonans.”
Ethan Faverino is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
by Ethan Faverino | Nov 13, 2025 | Economy, News
By Ethan Faverino |
A comprehensive new analysis of the U.S. Census Bureau data by the Retirement Living Research Team reveals a seismic shift in American migration patterns, with eight of the top ten states for net population growth located in the South, joined by Arizona and Nevada.
The 2025 report, which segments migration by generation, shows Texas leading the nation with a net annual gain of 72,700 residents. On the other hand, California recorded the largest net loss at 254,332 people, almost double that of the next-ranked state, New York, with a net loss of 130,145 people annually.
The study revealed a unifying trend that every generation is leaving California, which posted the highest net migration across all age groups. High cost of living, along with recent wildfires, were cited as causes of leaving the state.
Arizona continues to solidify its status as a migration powerhouse, welcoming a net total of 55,160 new residents—equivalent to 151 people moving daily. The state saw 234,926 inflows against 179,766 outflows, driven largely by baby boomers and millennials.
- Baby Boomers (ages 60-74): Arizona ranks #2 nationally with a net gain of 13,476
- Millennials (ages 25-44): Net gain of 14,359
- Gen X (ages 45-59): Net gain of 8,001
- Gen Z (ages 18-24): Net gain of 7,695
- Silent Generation (75+) Net gain of 2,363
Florida dominates the retirement migration with a net gain of 37,924 baby boomers annually—the largest single age group migration in the country. Next is Gen X with a net gain of 22,555, signaling early retirement planning.
Younger generations are choosing different paths of migration, with Millennials flocking to Texas (+35,445 net) and Washington state (+18,959), and Gen Z moving to South Carolina (+15,925) and Washington, D.C. (+12,792 net).
The report points to cost of living, climate, tax policies, and job opportunities as primary motivators. Southern states like Texas, Florida, and South Carolina dominate due to affordability and warm weather, while high-cost states like California, New York, and Illinois see sustained outflows.
Ethan Faverino is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
