by Matthew Holloway | Jun 7, 2025 | News
By Matthew Holloway |
In the wake of what Turning Point PAC has declared “the largest launch event in Arizona gubernatorial primary history,” the political action committee has announced a massive initial media buy supporting Andy Biggs in his primary challenge against fellow-Republican Karrin Taylor Robson.
The upcoming media-buy is set to total over $500,000 without accounting for the Saturday “Biggs for Governor” Rally hosted by Turning Point Action and Turning Point PAC, which itself amounted to “an additional $780,000 in earned media value (EMV),” according to a press release.
Per the PAC, the $500k media buy will include “impactful ad placements that go live on strategic cable, over-the-top, radio and direct-to-voter placements most watched and listened to by local Arizonans.”
The $780k earned media value of the launch event includes clips, speeches, and promotional materials which were widely shared online during the weekend and reportedly generated 52.1 million impressions on social media according to Turning Point PAC.
“Taken as a whole with Turning Point PAC’s $500,000 media buy announcement, the organization’s independent expenditures and organizing to support Biggs’s primary launch already amounts to over $1,400,000,” the committee said in a statement.
“To see a room packed with thousands of Biggs supporters this far out from the primary was truly historic, and it’s proof of the grassroots energy that is already gathering behind his campaign. There isn’t a world in which voters will not be aware of Andy Biggs being on the ballot, and the more who find out, the more his double-digit lead over all other competitors will grow,” said Charlie Kirk, founder and president of Turning Point USA & Turning Point Action. “Andy Biggs is ready to bring a President Trump and Ron DeSantis level of leadership and competency to governing Arizona, and Turning Point is proud to get behind his campaign.”
Tyler Bowyer, COO of Turning Point Action and Turning Point PAC added, “Andy Biggs was the best Senate President Arizona has had in decades and he has been President Trump’s most reliable friend in Congress. He is Trump-endorsed, Charlie Kirk endorsed, and Turning Point Action endorsed. His campaign momentum is already building at an incredible clip and we’ve barely just begun. The media buy combined with Biggs’s impressive earned media exposure shows how enthusiastic the grassroots is to make Andy Biggs the next governor of Arizona.”
The media spending blitz comes alongside more good news for Biggs. A recent poll from American Commitment shows Biggs with a commanding lead over Taylor Robson in the 2026 Republican primary election for governor. Conducted by Kreate Strategies, the poll shows Biggs (57% support) leads Taylor Robson (25% support) by 32 points.
Matthew Holloway is a senior reporter for AZ Free News. Follow him on X for his latest stories, or email tips to Matthew@azfreenews.com.
by Matthew Holloway | Dec 12, 2024 | News
By Matthew Holloway |
Noble Predictive Insights (NPI) released its Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) results on Thursday, offering the closest to a full exit-poll that has been generated in the state so far after the election. Conducted in the last pre-Thanksgiving week of November, the survey spoke to 988 registered voters in Arizona and among other things asked voters specifically, “WHY they voted the way they did.”
The pollsters asked voters to express their reasoning for voting for President-elect Donald Trump versus Vice President Kamala Harris and for Congressman and Senator-elect Ruben Gallego instead of Kari Lake in particular.
Of all concerns that dominated the presidential election, the outlet found, as many polls prior to the election did, that the economy predominated being the most important issue in voters’ decision with 27% of respondents. This was followed by immigration, “Threats to Democracy”, and the “candidate’s background or policy record.”
The pollster’s noted:
“Trump’s GOP has made immigration a signature issue for the party, and Democrats – the party in power – own both the positive and negative aspects of the economy. Translation: The two top issues were great for Republicans.“
Republicans and Independents both were motivated first by the economy and then by immigration, while Democrats were motivated by the perceived “threats to Democracy,” followed by the economy and abortion.
David Byler, NPI Chief of Research explained, “Republican and Democratic candidates ran like they were living in different universes. Democrats cared about abortion and threats to democracy much more than immigration. Republicans saw immigration and the economy as crises caused by the Biden Administration.”
“We saw this same pattern in the pre-election polling. But the election proved that the GOP argument – about the economy, immigration, and dissatisfaction with how Biden governed – won the day.”
The pollster also observed that a potentially fatal flaw in Harris’ campaign was her deep integration within the deliberately named Biden-Harris Administration, which precluded her making a clean-break from an extremely unpopular presidency among Arizona voters.
“As Biden’s VP, most voters (56%) view Harris as an extension of the Biden administration rather than a new politician forging a different path (33%). Arizonans disapproved of Biden’s job performance for most of his tenure as President – which suggests he may have been a liability for the Harris campaign.”
Mike Noble, NPI Founder & CEO noted, “Hindsight is 20/20, but this might be one of the biggest mistakes of the 2024 Democratic process for replacing Biden. They chose someone who was part of the Biden Administration, knowing that he had a poor approval rating. Harris could be tied to Biden in a way that almost nobody could.”
Turning to the Senate race, the results took on a different character entirely. Rather than addressing particular issues or positions as they did in the presidential race, the pollsters’ questioning yielded more emotionally driven responses related to Kari Lake’s favorability, thus not offering a similar distinction in the Senate race. The outlet wrote, “This AZPOP asked voters who had an unfavorable view of Lake (53%) WHY they disliked her, and allowed them to select multiple reasons.”
Based on the narrow breadth of the question and its scope being limited to those who voted against Lake, Noble Predictive Insights found a majority of Gallego supporters either did so because she “denied her 2022 loss in the governor race,” because the respondent “did not like her personally,” or because she “imitated Trump without offering new ideas.”
Matthew Holloway is a senior reporter for AZ Free News. Follow him on X for his latest stories, or email tips to Matthew@azfreenews.com.
by Staff Reporter | Nov 5, 2024 | News
By Staff Reporter |
The last polls before Election Day showed Democratic candidate Ruben Gallego with a slim lead over Republican candidate Kari Lake.
Of the multiple polls conducted over this past weekend, only one showed Lake with a slim lead over Gallego.
Patriot Polling asked over 800 likely voters over the weekend who they would support. Over half — 51 percent — backed Gallego, while 48 percent said they were supporting Lake.
Victory Insights asked over 700 likely voters from last Friday through Sunday who they would support. 50 percent said they would support Gallego, and 47 percent said they would support Lake.
InsiderAdvantage asked 800 likely voters last Friday and Saturday who they would support. 49 percent said Gallego and 47 percent said Lake.
The only polling to show Lake ahead came from Atlas Intel. They asked over 900 likely voters, also on Friday and Saturday, who they would support. 49 percent said Lake while 47 percent said Gallego.
Of the 900 likely voters polled by Emerson College from last Wednesday, 50 percent said they would support Gallego and 45 percent said they would support Lake.
The New York Times and Siena College (polling from October 25 through last Saturday, or nine days total) received the same results as Emerson College when they polled just over 1,000 likely voters.
An average of all polling results from Project FiveThirtyEight show Gallego with a lead of over 49 percent to Lake’s 45 percent.
These latest polling results are consistent with past polling, which have reflected Gallego maintaining a slim lead over Lake.
It would appear that the release of Gallego’s divorce records had no impact on the race, though they were anticipated to measure up as an October surprise and described as “damning” by Lake’s senior advisor Caroline Wren. The records in question contained little beyond what had been covered previously by the media and disclosed voluntarily by Gallego himself. Yavapai Superior Court Judge John Napper described the records as “one of the most garden-variety divorce files” he’d ever come across.
Gallego has built up a consistent lead in the polling, despite recently telling The Bulwark that Arizona remains a “center-right state,” more so than a moderate one based on his experiences.
The Democratic candidate told MSNBC over the weekend that Lake would “contest” the election results if she lost.
“What matters though is most Arizonans want to move beyond election denialism,” said Gallego. “What Kari Lake has done is not just funny and weird — it’s actually very corrosive, and it’s dangerous.”
On Monday, in a late bid to convince the remaining voters to vote for her, Lake’s team released a video taken during one of Gallego’s private fundraisers in which the Democratic candidate admitted that he wasn’t “allowed” to post on his own social media.
“I’m not allowed to tweet out anymore,” said Gallego.
In past years, Gallego has posted inflammatory content on controversial issues, such as deriding prayers in response to tragedy.
“F*** your prayers,” said Gallego.
Gallego’s team took a different approach on Monday. They posted videos depicting Gallego as a family man capable of having non-political conversations.
AZ Free News is your #1 source for Arizona news and politics. You can send us news tips using this link.
by Staff Reporter | Oct 30, 2024 | News
By Staff Reporter |
The outcome of a new poll is indicating the defeat of Proposition 140, the “Make Elections Fair Act,” which proposes to overhaul Arizona elections with ranked-choice voting and open primaries.
The Arizona Free Enterprise Club (AFEC) released the poll on Tuesday, conducted by Data Orbital. The pollster surveyed over 500 voters over the past weekend to gauge their support for Prop 140; only 42 percent of respondents expressed support for the measure, with those who have already voted at 38 percent in support.
AFEC President Scot Mussi stated in a press release that the poll results indicated an opposition to election reforms similar to those adopted by California.
“This latest poll demonstrates that Arizonans do not appreciate these special interests attempting to commandeer our elections for their radical agenda,” said Mussi. “Arizona voters are diligently doing their research on Prop 140, and they are being turned off by its dangerous effects on our state’s elections and future.”
Mussi remarked that the defeat of Prop 140 would be “sending a message to these out-of-state billionaires and California liberals” that Arizonans won’t adopt “a system run by a partisan election official and his band of unelected bureaucrats.”
By “partisan election official,” Mussi was referring to the Secretary of State — under Prop 140 reforms, the secretary decides the number of candidates who may qualify for the general election ballot in every race, even their own. Theoretically, that could mean a general election ballot consisting of only one party.
AFEC also criticized Prop 140 for its speculated potential to increase tabulation errors, lengthen voting lines, and delay election results.
41 percent of respondents said they were not supportive of the measure. Eight percent said they were undecided, and five percent said they could not recall on how they had already voted on the measure.
The poll surveyed 261 males and 289 females, and respondents were nearly evenly split on whether they were “extremely likely” to vote (291) or had already voted (231). A select few were only somewhat likely (15) or “50/50 likely” (13).
A majority of respondents were 65-and-over, white, Republican, in possession of some college education but no degree, and had voted in the last four elections.
Respondents were heavily weighted in the 65-and-over crowd at 33 percent (182 respondents), with decreasing numbers of participation as the age brackets went younger: 17 percent at ages 55 to 64, 14 percent at ages 45 to 54, 14 percent at ages 35 to 44, 13 percent at ages 25 to 34, and eight percent at ages 18 to 24.
A majority of respondents self-identified as white (71 percent), followed by Hispanic (20 percent), African American (four percent), Asian (two percent), and other (two percent).
Also, more respondents were Republicans: 39 percent. 32 percent of respondents were Democrats, 25 percent of respondents were independents or unaffiliated, and about four percent were “other” voters.
42 percent of respondents received some college education but no degree. 25 percent had a bachelor’s degree, 15 percent had a high school degree or an equivalent, over 14 percent had a graduate degree or higher, two percent didn’t have their high school diploma, and one percent refused to answer.
AZ Free News is your #1 source for Arizona news and politics. You can send us news tips using this link.
by Daniel Stefanski | Oct 27, 2024 | News
By Daniel Stefanski |
A new poll shows that former President Donald J. Trump is maintaining his lead in the Grand Canyon State with less than two weeks until the pivotal General Election.
InsiderAdvantage released the results of a survey of 800 likely voters, that had Trump leading his Democrat opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, by three percent (50-47).
The Republican nominee for President leads Harris with Male voters (53.6-42.2), White voters (50.3-45.8), Hispanic voters (50.2-48.6), and Independent voters (49.5-43.5).
According to the poll, when individuals were asked about how the majority of their neighbors would vote in the race for President, almost half (47.7) responded that those around them would vote for Trump. Only 23.1% believe that their neighbors would vote for Harris.
President Trump is leading Harris in the RealClearPolitics polling average for Arizona, with a 1.8% spread with the results over the past month (49.1-47.3).
Arizona has proven to be a critical battleground state in the race for the White House, leading to the candidates and their surrogates flooding the airwaves and campaigning repeatedly in the state during these presidential election years. Republican Vice-Presidential nominee, Senator J.D. Vance, was just in Arizona on Tuesday, stopping in Peoria and Tucson to rally support for his ticket. Trump was in Tempe on Thursday, making a curious pitstop in a region that is usually dominated by college and left-leaning voters. Another just-announced event by Trump and Tucker Carlson is for Glendale on October 31.
Democrats, led by Harris and her surrogates, have also barnstormed the state in recent weeks and months.
Daniel Stefanski is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
