A new poll of Arizona’s Second Congressional District shows Republican Rep. Eli Crane leading Democratic challenger Jonathan Nez by 11 points in their rematch for the northeastern Arizona seat.
The Peak Insights survey, conducted August 17-20, found Crane supported by 53% of respondents and Nez by 42%, with 5% selecting neither candidate or saying they did not know.
The poll places Crane above 50% in the initial ballot test with just over two months remaining before the general election.
Per source, Freedom Caucus member Eli Crane up double digits in a competitive northern Arizona district pic.twitter.com/6Yp5Tp9djC
Peak Insights conducted 400 live telephone interviews with a representative sample of 2026 general election voters in the district using landlines and cell phones. The poll carries a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.
The memo does not identify who commissioned or paid for the survey.
The poll’s ballot test listed Crane, Nez, and “Neither/don’t know.” It did not include Libertarian Curtis Goodwin, who advanced from the July 21 Libertarian primary and is also a candidate in the general election.
The Peak Insights memo also reported a positive job-approval rating for Crane. 41% of respondents approved of his performance in Congress, while 25% disapproved.
President Donald Trump was viewed favorably by 51% of respondents and unfavorably by 45%, according to the survey. Among voters who viewed Trump favorably, Crane led Nez 95% to 2%.
Peak Insights also examined the remaining undecided voters and reported that a majority are registered Republicans who supported Trump over former Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election.
The pollster characterized that group as favoring Crane based on its partisan composition and previous voting behavior.
Nez drew 42% in the ballot test, which Peak Insights noted matched Harris’ 2024 share of the presidential vote in the district. The memo reported that Nez received support from 2% of respondents who said they voted for Trump in 2024.
The candidates are meeting for a second consecutive general election after Crane defeated Nez in 2024. Alongside the release of his latest ad in early August, Crane said, “The same D.C. Democrats who look down on rural Arizonans because we don’t share their woke values want to pretend like they all of the sudden care about AZ-02. What they really care about is power.”
Crane won the 2024 contest with 54.5% of the vote to Nez’s 45.5%, a nine-point margin. The Cook Political Report notes that Nez ran ahead of Harris in the district, which Trump carried by approximately 15 points.
Cook currently rates the 2026 race “Likely Republican” and gives Arizona’s Second Congressional District a Republican-leaning R+7 Partisan Voting Index.
Crane, a former Navy SEAL first elected to Congress in 2022, is seeking a third term. Nez served as president of the Navajo Nation from 2019 to 2023.
Both advanced through the July 21 primary. The official state canvass recorded 89,205 votes for Crane in the Republican primary and 65,118 for Nez in the Democratic primary, with neither facing a listed opponent in his respective party contest.
The race has also drawn substantial campaign spending. Federal Election Commission (FEC) records through July 1 show Crane’s campaign with approximately $2.84 million in cash on hand, while Nez reported approximately $1.91 million.
Crane’s campaign had raised approximately $9.48 million during the 2025-26 election cycle through July 1, compared with approximately $3.52 million raised by Nez’s campaign, according to the FEC.
The Second Congressional District covers a large portion of northern and eastern Arizona, including Flagstaff, Prescott, and much of the Navajo Nation.
Arizona Senate President Warren Petersen (R-LD14) has widened his lead over attorney Rodney Glassman in the Republican primary for attorney general according to a new statewide poll released by NextGen Polling.
The survey found Petersen leading Glassman 43.4 percent to 28.2 percent, with 28.5 percent of likely Republican primary voters undecided. The poll was conducted July 8-9 among 1,707 likely voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.
Petersen’s advantage increased from approximately six points in a June survey conducted by the same firm. That poll placed Petersen at 25.8 percent and Glassman at 19.5 percent, while 54.6 percent of respondents remained undecided.
ATTORNEY GENERAL
JUNE 18TH: Petersen: 26% (+6%) Glassman: 20%
JULY 9TH: Petersen: 43% (+15%) Glassman: 28%
The most genuinely competitive race of the five down-ballot contests, but @votewarren's structural depth means he has a floor that Glassman cannot easily breach. Glassman… pic.twitter.com/QrZb1us5VB
Between the two surveys, Petersen’s support increased by nearly 18 percentage points, while Glassman gained approximately nine points. The undecided share fell by more than 26 points.
“This race proves again that Arizona voters continue to reject political charlatans who attempt to buy their seats in public office,” Petersen said in a statement released by his campaign. “I am truly grateful for the trust voters have placed in my candidacy for Attorney General. These polls demonstrate that Republicans understand we need a candidate who can defeat liberal Kris Mayes in November.”
Petersen’s campaign pointed to Glassman’s spending advantage while announcing the polling results. Campaign finance data compiled by Transparency USA through March 31 showed Glassman reporting nearly $284,000 in expenditures, compared with approximately $107,000 by Petersen, a ratio of about 2.7-to-1.
The same records showed Glassman reporting more than $2.3 million in contributions and Petersen reporting approximately $1.2 million. Those figures cover activity through the end of March and do not include spending during the final months of the primary campaign.
The July 21 primary will determine which Republican advances to face Democratic Attorney General Kris Mayes in the Nov. 3 general election. Mayes is seeking a second term and faces no opposition in the Democratic primary.
Petersen and Glassman have centered much of their campaign on their respective qualifications to oversee the Attorney General’s Office and their ability to defeat Mayes in November.
Petersen represents Legislative District 14 and has served as president of the Arizona Senate since 2023. He earned his law degree from Arizona State University in 2019 and was admitted to the State Bar of Arizona in December 2023.
Glassman is a private attorney, former Tucson City Council member, and lieutenant colonel in the U.S. Air Force Reserve Judge Advocate General’s Corps. He was the Democratic nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2010 and has since sought several offices as a Republican, including attorney general in 2022 and the Arizona Corporation Commission in 2018.
Both candidates have said they would place greater emphasis on working with law enforcement, prosecuting crime, addressing border security, and cooperating with the Trump administration. A May primary debate between the candidates focused heavily on their legal experience and political records.
A new survey of likely Arizona Republican primary voters shows Arizona Senate President Warren Petersen (R-LD14) with a lead over Rodney Glassman in the race for the Republican nomination for attorney general.
According to the poll, conducted by Stealth Analytics, Petersen leads Glassman 35% to 19% while 46% of respondents remain undecided. The poll surveyed 816 likely GOP primary voters from June 2-4 and reported a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
AZGOP Attorney General Primary
Petersen leads Glassman 35 to 19, with just under half of likely primary voters still undecided.
The findings suggest that while Petersen currently holds a significant advantage, a large portion of the Republican electorate has yet to settle on a candidate ahead of the July primary.
The survey also found Petersen with a stronger favorability rating among Republican voters. According to the poll, 46% of respondents viewed Petersen favorably compared to 12% unfavorably, while Glassman recorded a 38% favorable rating and a 22% unfavorable rating.
According to Stealth Analytics, Republican voters ranked illegal immigration (24%), election integrity (23%), water supply concerns (20%), and border security (14%) as the top priorities for Arizona’s next attorney general.
The survey also measured the potential influence of President Donald Trump on the race. According to the results, 67% of likely Republican primary voters said a Trump endorsement would make them more likely to support a candidate, while 20% said it would have no impact and 13% said it would make them less likely to support that candidate.
The poll comes as Republican voters prepare to choose a nominee in one of Arizona’s most closely watched contests.
The two candidates recently participated in a debate sponsored by the Arizona Citizens Clean Elections Commission. During the debate, Petersen highlighted issues including public safety, election integrity, and enforcement of Arizona law, while Glassman emphasized his legal experience and criticized incumbent Attorney General Kris Mayes’ handling of the office.
The winner of the Republican primary will advance to the November general election, where Democrat incumbent Attorney General Kris Mayes is seeking another term.
The full Stealth Analytics survey can be viewed here.
New polling reflects a continued high level of support for President Donald Trump’s mass deportations.
Earlier this week, the White House shared two sets of polling data that declare opinions of deportation remain positive.
Republicans, independents, and swing voters who responded all shared majority positive opinions on mass deportations in one poll from Cygnal: Republicans, 97%; independents, 59%; and swing voters, 64%. Only 25% of Democrat respondents expressed support for mass deportations, and 67% said they opposed.
This polling data came from just over 1,000 voters likely to vote in this year’s midterm general election.
A significant majority of all respondents also aligned when it came to interpretations of immigration law and enforcement.
73% of all respondents agreed that entering the country without permission constitutes breaking the law. 61% overall supported deportations for illegal aliens. 64% determined that illegal aliens were a very to somewhat severe problem: 33% of Democrats, 60% of independents, and 97% of Republicans.
A slimmer majority amounting to 58% of respondents rejected the Democrat-led proposal to defund Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). Less than that, 54% overall, supported ICE enforcing federal immigration laws.
The Democrats’ fight within Congress to defund ICE mustered a partial shutdown this week.
The shutdown arose beyond Democrats’ general disagreement with mass deportations. Democratic leaders oppose Department of Homeland Security (DHS) approaches to carrying out immigration enforcement. Two American activists in two separate incidents died last month after their protests against ICE turned into interference with law enforcement operations.
Both individuals, Renee Good and Alex Pretti, were shot by ICE agents after refusing law enforcement orders.
Anti-ICE activists have also taken to protesting across Arizona. The Phoenix ICE office has been vandalized repeatedly, sometimes with death threats, and been subjected to protests that have devolved into rioting as activists resisted law enforcement orders.
This week’s partial shutdown was much shorter-lived than the longest one in America’s history that occurred last year, lasting over 40 days from October to November. President Donald Trump signed a spending package lifting the shutdown on Tuesday.
The second poll shared by the Trump administration came from Harvard University Center for American Political Studies (CAPS) and Harris. That polling reflected that 73% of Americans believe criminal illegal aliens should be deported. 2,000 registered voters served as respondents. Most of the voters said that price increases, inflation, and affordability along with immigration were their top two concerns.
Overall, the Harvard-Harris polling found that Trump’s approval rating on key issues (the economy, immigration, foreign affairs, administering the government, handling inflation, reducing the cost of government, returning America to its values, tariffs and trade policy, and fighting crime in America’s cities) ranged from 39% to 47%. The president’s highest rating level was 51% for response to anti-ICE protests in Minneapolis.
Overall, 38% of voters said the country was on the right track: 74% of Republicans, 15% of Democrats, and 24% of independent voters. Likely voters, not weighted in the median total, were at 43%. Congressional approval was worse: 32% overall.
35% of overall voters said their financial situation was improving, and 40% said it was declining.
Other polls have found dramatically different sentiments among the American people. Another three-day poll conducted by Ipsos determined that 62% of Americans believe current ICE enforcement activities go too far.
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Congressman Andy Biggs continues to hold a dominant polling position in Arizona’s 2026 Republican gubernatorial primary, maintaining the same lead he’s had since September when he also polled ahead of Karrin Taylor Robson by 24 points.
The latest poll, conducted October 26–28 among 397 likely GOP primary voters, shows Biggs at 43 percent with Karrin Taylor Robson at 19 percent and David Schweikert at 2 percent. Another 35 percent remain undecided. The mixed-mode survey, which carries a ±4.9 percent margin of error, was conducted by the Phoenix-based research firm GrayHouse Research & Analysis.
ARIZONA POLL By Gray House (R)
GOP GOV Andy Biggs – 43% K. Taylor Robson – 19% David Schweikert – 2% Not sure – 35% —— AZ GOV GE 🟥 Republican: 44% 🟦 Katie Hobbs: 40% ⬜ Not sure: 19% —— 10/26-28 | 744 RV (GE) | 397 LV (R Gov)https://t.co/ArQ1TszY5Gpic.twitter.com/XXZm1qSSJg
Biggs, a five-term congressman representing Arizona’s 5th District and former chair of the House Freedom Caucus, has led every early-cycle measure of the prospective Republican field. His advantage reflects both high name recognition and continued grassroots strength among conservative voters focused on border security, spending restraint, and state sovereignty.
The poll underscores a steady pattern: Biggs’ lead hasn’t wavered despite increased visibility from Robson, who finished second in the 2022 gubernatorial primary, or speculation that Schweikert could consolidate the party’s establishment wing. With one-third of the electorate still uncommitted, the numbers suggest Biggs enters 2026 as the de facto frontrunner. As reported by AZ Free News, Biggs polled at 55% against Robson’s 31%, with 14% of voters undecided in a September poll from Pulse Decision Science. He also polled at 48.6% against Robson’s 26% in a June poll by NextGen Polling, barely edging out “Other” and “Undecided” with a combined 25.5%.
Turning Point USA Chief Operating Officer Tyler Bowyer shared the results in a post to X, remarking “Latest Arizona Poll out on @politico’s website shows @andybiggs4az up 24 points on Karrin Robson. This is consistent with every poll to date. Republicans need to get behind Biggs for Governor and prepare the resources now to win next year.”
Latest Arizona Poll out on @politico’s website shows @andybiggs4az up 24 points on Karrin Robson.
This is consistent with every poll to date. Republicans need to get behind Biggs for Governor and prepare the resources now to win next year. pic.twitter.com/DECK51z61F
In a similar sentiment, Richard Baris of Big Data Poll, Chairman of the National Association of Independent Pollsters and host of ‘Inside the Numbers’ commented, “Yep, Biggs has a significant lead. It’s not particularly close. Would be a waste of money to even challenge him. But nobody ever accused GOP donors of being smart, so…”
GrayHouse’s data, drawn from its statewide voter panel and Arizona voter file, also provided a detailed look at the primary electorate.
Republican vs Hobbs for Governor: R+4 (44-40%) Republican vs Fontes for Sec of State: R+4 (44-40%) Republican vs Democrat for Treasurer: R+6 (42-36%) Republican vs Mayes for…
In the attorney general primary, Senate President Warren Petersen started at 16% and former Tucson City Council member Rodney Glassman at 8%, with 76% undecided. After biographical information, Petersen rose to 48% and Glassman to 15%, with 37% undecided.
The poll also measured voter sentiment on state direction: 52% said Arizona is on the wrong track, 25% on the right track, and 22% did not know. For re-electing Gov. Katie Hobbs, 43% supported it, 48% preferred someone new, and 9% were undecided. Including Independents and Democrats, the poll surveyed 744 registered voters with a margin of error +/- 3.6%.
Arizona’s top issues ranked were affordability and cost of living at 29%, threats to democracy at 17%, and border security and immigration at 16%, followed by jobs and the economy at 9%, education and healthcare both at 7%, with crime/public safety and water both at 6%. Climate change and the environment came in at 3%, and abortion barely registered at 1%.
