A new poll has President Trump with another slight lead over his Democrat opponent in the Grand Canyon State as the November General Election approaches.
Emerson College Polling recently released its latest round of swing state surveys, showing former President and current Republican candidate for Commander in Chief, Donald J. Trump, with a narrow lead over Democrat candidate and current Vice President, Kamala Harris.
The poll, which was conducted September 27-28, has Trump up on Harris by three percent (50-47%). Emerson College Polling considered the responses of 920 likely Arizona voters to compose its results.
Some of the findings of the Arizona polling included the following:
37% of respondents approved of the job Joe Biden is doing as President, compared to 55% who disapproved.
40% approved of the job Katie Hobbs was doing as Arizona Governor, compared to 38%.
Just over two percent of voters were undecided between Trump and Harris in the survey. Of those undecideds, 78% of respondents leaned toward Trump.
Harris had a 49% favorable rating, compared to 51% unfavorable.
Trump had a 49% favorable rating, compared to 51% unfavorable.
The top two issues concerning voters in the survey were the economy (jobs, inflation, and taxes) and immigration.
53% of voters believed that Trump would be better for their personal financial situation, compared to 43% for Harris.
57% of respondents thought their communities were less safe than five years ago, compared to 19% who thought their neighborhoods were more safe.
60% of voters felt their economic situation was worse than it was five years ago, compared to 26% who felt it was better.
52% of respondents believed the U.S. government was spending too much on military aid for Ukraine, compared to 16% who believed there was too little American dollars for Ukraine.
Arizona’s eleven electoral votes will be critical for either candidate to win in the quest to hit 270 to win the White House.
Daniel Stefanski is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
The latest poll released from Noble Predictive Insights has shown that, when compared to a pre-abortion ban reversal poll last year, public opinion on abortion in Arizona has remained largely the same, with the state’s apparent rejection of abortion on demand or “legal under any circumstances” remaining consistent with 60% of respondents. Of the voters opposed, 11% said abortion should be illegal regardless of circumstances while 49% said it should be permitted “only under certain circumstances.”
The poll, conducted by NPI from May 7-14, compared consistently with a similar February poll that predated the state Supreme Court ruling on the 1864 abortion ban re-activated by the reversal of the Roe v. Wade ruling. David Byler, NPI Chief of Research said in a press release, “When Roe was overturned, a significant chunk of the electorate moved left on abortion. But the 1864 law didn’t have a comparable effect in Arizona. The governor and legislature moved quickly on the 1864 law, so it didn’t change the landscape much.”
Among the voters who agreed that abortion is acceptable under “certain circumstances” the support for each reason broke down as:
Cases where the mother’s life was endangered (85%)
Instances of rape (82%)
Cases of incest (78%)
Babies at risk of severe complications (57%)
Within a certain timeframe (45%)
47% support within the first 6 weeks of pregnancy (within the first missed menstrual cycle/prior to a heartbeat).
43% support up to 15 weeks (roughly the end of the first trimester of pregnancy).
Support significantly drops off at 24 weeks or late-term with only 9% and again at 40 weeks or full-term at just 1%.
The pro-abortion politicos and activists who are working on a ballot initiative to enshrine a “right to abortion” up to any point before fetal viability (typically between 22-24 weeks) are likely to find the battle a contentious one with Arizonans evenly split according to NPI at 41% in favor and 41% against, fighting for the 18% of undecided voters.
As noted above, only 9% of those polled were comfortable with the 22-24 week timeframe with a majority of the support resting at the six and fifteen week marks. Arizona’s current statute places the limit at fifteen weeks already.
As reported by Tucson.com, the language of the initiative could prove even more problematic with the determining point of “fetal viability” being “in the good faith judgment of a treating health care professional, is necessary to protect the life or physical or mental health of the pregnant individual.”
The poll also indicated that abortion, though important, is hardly an Arizonan’s top priority. Twenty-two percent of registered voters in Arizona said that immigration was the most important of their top three issues, with abortion only amounting to 12%. Inflation weighed heavily with 19% of voters naming it as their top issue. Affordable housing accounted for 12% of the first choice with climate change, taxes, national defense, healthcare, education, the income gap, LGBT rights, and gun policies all coming it at single digits.
Simply put, Tuesday’s poll appears to indicate that the upcoming election in Arizona could be far more decisively driven by economic factors than abortion, an issue where Arizonans’ opinions seem to be largely locked-in.
Arizonans may be ready to do an about-face on a candidate for President of the United States if recent polls are any indication of next year’s results in the November 2024 General Election.
On Tuesday, Noble Predictive Insights released a poll, showing that former President Donald J. Trump has an eight-point lead over current President Joe Biden in the Grand Canyon State.
The snapshot of the still-distant race has many encouraging signs for the 45th President, although sixteen percent of Arizona voters may still be undecided. Trump holds an eighty-point advantage within the Republican Party for the General Election, while Biden appears to only command a net sixty-seven points inside his own party. Independents, who are Arizona’s largest voting bloc, are split between the two candidates (37-34 Trump), and there are still a significant portion of those voters who are unsure about who they will vote for – if at all – in November’s crucial contest.
Noble Predictive Insights also released a poll of the Republican primary field, showing Trump with a commanding lead over any other competitors. Trump’s numbers in the November survey grew to 53% of the Republican electorate (up from 50% in July), while Governor Ron DeSantis lost three points (19% from 16%). Ambassador Nikki Haley doubled her standing from the July report, acquiring eight percent of the Arizona GOP field (from four percent in July). Vivek Ramaswamy remained at nine percent. This poll was fielded at the end of October, when former Republican contenders Mike Pence and Tim Scott were in the race; Pence pulled in three percent, and Scott, one percent.
In the press release announcing the results of this latest poll, David Byler, the Chief of Research for Noble Predictive Insights said, “An eight-point lead for Trump is striking, but not surprising. Poll averages have Trump ahead of Biden by about a point nationally – that’s a five point swing from the 2020 results. If Arizona – one of the most closely contested states of 2020 – also swung that much, we’d expect individual polls to give Trump a mid-to-high single-digit lead. That’s exactly what our poll – and other recent surveys – have shown.”
The Noble Predictive Insights poll tracks what other recent surveys have telegraphed about the state of the General Election in Arizona: Trump does appear to have a lead over Biden in the state. The latest New York Times / Siena College poll has Trump up by five in Arizona in a head-to-head match-up (49-49 with 603 Registered Voters). Emerson College has the former President leading by two points with a set of polls of both “Likely” and “Registered” voters. And Morning Consult has Trump up four points (46-42 with 800 Registered Voters).
The poll from Noble Predictive Insights computed from 1,010 registered Arizona voters and took placed between October 25-31.
Daniel Stefanski is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
It’s been an interesting couple of weeks to say the least. In the wake of severe distrust of the U.S. election system, multiple states throughout the country have been seeking to pass reasonable laws that protect our election process. You would think that’s something everyone could get behind.
But not the liberal media and the left. They would rather tell one lie after another, all to push their “big lie” that these bills are somehow voter suppression. The pressure from the woke left resulted in Major League Baseball moving its All-Star Game from Atlanta after Georgia passed its new voting laws. And even here in Arizona, multiple business leaders have taken a public stand against several election integrity bills.
Perhaps they should’ve checked in with voters first.
A poll conducted late last week by the Free Enterprise Club and Heritage Action shows that bipartisan majorities support sensible reforms that strengthen Arizona’s election laws.
The poll found that more than 80% of Arizona voters support requiring all voters to provide identification in order to vote, with 70% strongly supporting this requirement. Even a large majority of Democrats, 69%, support the idea of requiring all voters to provide ID prior to voting.
But there’s more.
Since there is a difference between asking about general support for election integrity laws and support for specific legislation, we decided to poll two specific bills being considered by the legislature. Both of these bills have been labeled “extreme” by the media and left.
The first was SB 1713, legislation that would require voters that vote by mail to include additional identification when voting. When asked if they would support this new requirement, 63.7% of Arizona voters said they would, including large majorities of Republican and Independent voters.
The other bill we asked voters about was SB 1485, legislation that would remove a person from the early voter list who does not vote by mail in 2 consecutive primary and 2 consecutive general elections from the early vote-by-mail list unless they return a notice within 30 days from the county indicating they would like to remain. Not surprisingly, a majority of voters support this reform as well.
So, shouldn’t lawmakers listen to the people by passing reasonable election reforms? After all, that’s why they were voted into office. Unfortunately, these widely popular bills may be stopped if the corporate media and Democrats get their way.
For example, Sen. Quezada (D-LD29) has already threatened the people of Arizona with losing the 2023 Super Bowl if SB1713 and SB1485 are signed into law. And inflammatory rhetoric such as “voter suppression” and “Jim Crow” is being regurgitated by liberal politicians and activists on a regular basis.
Enough is enough. It’s time for Arizona lawmakers to stand up to the woke bullying and threats and do what’s right. The vast majority of Americans support voter ID laws and election integrity reforms. They want an election system that makes voting both accessible fraud proof. And they understand that voter ID laws and clean voter rolls help make that happen. That means passing SB 1713 and SB 1485.
