by Staff Reporter | Feb 8, 2026 | News
By Staff Reporter |
New polling reflects a continued high level of support for President Donald Trump’s mass deportations.
Earlier this week, the White House shared two sets of polling data that declare opinions of deportation remain positive.
Republicans, independents, and swing voters who responded all shared majority positive opinions on mass deportations in one poll from Cygnal: Republicans, 97%; independents, 59%; and swing voters, 64%. Only 25% of Democrat respondents expressed support for mass deportations, and 67% said they opposed.
This polling data came from just over 1,000 voters likely to vote in this year’s midterm general election.
A significant majority of all respondents also aligned when it came to interpretations of immigration law and enforcement.
73% of all respondents agreed that entering the country without permission constitutes breaking the law. 61% overall supported deportations for illegal aliens. 64% determined that illegal aliens were a very to somewhat severe problem: 33% of Democrats, 60% of independents, and 97% of Republicans.
A slimmer majority amounting to 58% of respondents rejected the Democrat-led proposal to defund Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). Less than that, 54% overall, supported ICE enforcing federal immigration laws.
The Democrats’ fight within Congress to defund ICE mustered a partial shutdown this week.
The shutdown arose beyond Democrats’ general disagreement with mass deportations. Democratic leaders oppose Department of Homeland Security (DHS) approaches to carrying out immigration enforcement. Two American activists in two separate incidents died last month after their protests against ICE turned into interference with law enforcement operations.
Both individuals, Renee Good and Alex Pretti, were shot by ICE agents after refusing law enforcement orders.
Anti-ICE activists have also taken to protesting across Arizona. The Phoenix ICE office has been vandalized repeatedly, sometimes with death threats, and been subjected to protests that have devolved into rioting as activists resisted law enforcement orders.
This week’s partial shutdown was much shorter-lived than the longest one in America’s history that occurred last year, lasting over 40 days from October to November. President Donald Trump signed a spending package lifting the shutdown on Tuesday.
The second poll shared by the Trump administration came from Harvard University Center for American Political Studies (CAPS) and Harris. That polling reflected that 73% of Americans believe criminal illegal aliens should be deported. 2,000 registered voters served as respondents. Most of the voters said that price increases, inflation, and affordability along with immigration were their top two concerns.
Overall, the Harvard-Harris polling found that Trump’s approval rating on key issues (the economy, immigration, foreign affairs, administering the government, handling inflation, reducing the cost of government, returning America to its values, tariffs and trade policy, and fighting crime in America’s cities) ranged from 39% to 47%. The president’s highest rating level was 51% for response to anti-ICE protests in Minneapolis.
Overall, 38% of voters said the country was on the right track: 74% of Republicans, 15% of Democrats, and 24% of independent voters. Likely voters, not weighted in the median total, were at 43%. Congressional approval was worse: 32% overall.
35% of overall voters said their financial situation was improving, and 40% said it was declining.
Other polls have found dramatically different sentiments among the American people. Another three-day poll conducted by Ipsos determined that 62% of Americans believe current ICE enforcement activities go too far.
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by Matthew Holloway | Nov 9, 2025 | News
By Matthew Holloway |
Congressman Andy Biggs continues to hold a dominant polling position in Arizona’s 2026 Republican gubernatorial primary, maintaining the same lead he’s had since September when he also polled ahead of Karrin Taylor Robson by 24 points.
The latest poll, conducted October 26–28 among 397 likely GOP primary voters, shows Biggs at 43 percent with Karrin Taylor Robson at 19 percent and David Schweikert at 2 percent. Another 35 percent remain undecided. The mixed-mode survey, which carries a ±4.9 percent margin of error, was conducted by the Phoenix-based research firm GrayHouse Research & Analysis.
Biggs, a five-term congressman representing Arizona’s 5th District and former chair of the House Freedom Caucus, has led every early-cycle measure of the prospective Republican field. His advantage reflects both high name recognition and continued grassroots strength among conservative voters focused on border security, spending restraint, and state sovereignty.
The poll underscores a steady pattern: Biggs’ lead hasn’t wavered despite increased visibility from Robson, who finished second in the 2022 gubernatorial primary, or speculation that Schweikert could consolidate the party’s establishment wing. With one-third of the electorate still uncommitted, the numbers suggest Biggs enters 2026 as the de facto frontrunner. As reported by AZ Free News, Biggs polled at 55% against Robson’s 31%, with 14% of voters undecided in a September poll from Pulse Decision Science. He also polled at 48.6% against Robson’s 26% in a June poll by NextGen Polling, barely edging out “Other” and “Undecided” with a combined 25.5%.
Turning Point USA Chief Operating Officer Tyler Bowyer shared the results in a post to X, remarking “Latest Arizona Poll out on @politico’s website shows @andybiggs4az up 24 points on Karrin Robson. This is consistent with every poll to date. Republicans need to get behind Biggs for Governor and prepare the resources now to win next year.”
In a similar sentiment, Richard Baris of Big Data Poll, Chairman of the National Association of Independent Pollsters and host of ‘Inside the Numbers’ commented, “Yep, Biggs has a significant lead. It’s not particularly close. Would be a waste of money to even challenge him. But nobody ever accused GOP donors of being smart, so…”
GrayHouse’s data, drawn from its statewide voter panel and Arizona voter file, also provided a detailed look at the primary electorate.
In the attorney general primary, Senate President Warren Petersen started at 16% and former Tucson City Council member Rodney Glassman at 8%, with 76% undecided. After biographical information, Petersen rose to 48% and Glassman to 15%, with 37% undecided.
The poll also measured voter sentiment on state direction: 52% said Arizona is on the wrong track, 25% on the right track, and 22% did not know. For re-electing Gov. Katie Hobbs, 43% supported it, 48% preferred someone new, and 9% were undecided. Including Independents and Democrats, the poll surveyed 744 registered voters with a margin of error +/- 3.6%.
Arizona’s top issues ranked were affordability and cost of living at 29%, threats to democracy at 17%, and border security and immigration at 16%, followed by jobs and the economy at 9%, education and healthcare both at 7%, with crime/public safety and water both at 6%. Climate change and the environment came in at 3%, and abortion barely registered at 1%.
Matthew Holloway is a senior reporter for AZ Free News. Follow him on X for his latest stories, or email tips to Matthew@azfreenews.com.
by Matthew Holloway | Jun 7, 2025 | News
By Matthew Holloway |
In the wake of what Turning Point PAC has declared “the largest launch event in Arizona gubernatorial primary history,” the political action committee has announced a massive initial media buy supporting Andy Biggs in his primary challenge against fellow-Republican Karrin Taylor Robson.
The upcoming media-buy is set to total over $500,000 without accounting for the Saturday “Biggs for Governor” Rally hosted by Turning Point Action and Turning Point PAC, which itself amounted to “an additional $780,000 in earned media value (EMV),” according to a press release.
Per the PAC, the $500k media buy will include “impactful ad placements that go live on strategic cable, over-the-top, radio and direct-to-voter placements most watched and listened to by local Arizonans.”
The $780k earned media value of the launch event includes clips, speeches, and promotional materials which were widely shared online during the weekend and reportedly generated 52.1 million impressions on social media according to Turning Point PAC.
“Taken as a whole with Turning Point PAC’s $500,000 media buy announcement, the organization’s independent expenditures and organizing to support Biggs’s primary launch already amounts to over $1,400,000,” the committee said in a statement.
“To see a room packed with thousands of Biggs supporters this far out from the primary was truly historic, and it’s proof of the grassroots energy that is already gathering behind his campaign. There isn’t a world in which voters will not be aware of Andy Biggs being on the ballot, and the more who find out, the more his double-digit lead over all other competitors will grow,” said Charlie Kirk, founder and president of Turning Point USA & Turning Point Action. “Andy Biggs is ready to bring a President Trump and Ron DeSantis level of leadership and competency to governing Arizona, and Turning Point is proud to get behind his campaign.”
Tyler Bowyer, COO of Turning Point Action and Turning Point PAC added, “Andy Biggs was the best Senate President Arizona has had in decades and he has been President Trump’s most reliable friend in Congress. He is Trump-endorsed, Charlie Kirk endorsed, and Turning Point Action endorsed. His campaign momentum is already building at an incredible clip and we’ve barely just begun. The media buy combined with Biggs’s impressive earned media exposure shows how enthusiastic the grassroots is to make Andy Biggs the next governor of Arizona.”
The media spending blitz comes alongside more good news for Biggs. A recent poll from American Commitment shows Biggs with a commanding lead over Taylor Robson in the 2026 Republican primary election for governor. Conducted by Kreate Strategies, the poll shows Biggs (57% support) leads Taylor Robson (25% support) by 32 points.
Matthew Holloway is a senior reporter for AZ Free News. Follow him on X for his latest stories, or email tips to Matthew@azfreenews.com.
by Matthew Holloway | Dec 12, 2024 | News
By Matthew Holloway |
Noble Predictive Insights (NPI) released its Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) results on Thursday, offering the closest to a full exit-poll that has been generated in the state so far after the election. Conducted in the last pre-Thanksgiving week of November, the survey spoke to 988 registered voters in Arizona and among other things asked voters specifically, “WHY they voted the way they did.”
The pollsters asked voters to express their reasoning for voting for President-elect Donald Trump versus Vice President Kamala Harris and for Congressman and Senator-elect Ruben Gallego instead of Kari Lake in particular.
Of all concerns that dominated the presidential election, the outlet found, as many polls prior to the election did, that the economy predominated being the most important issue in voters’ decision with 27% of respondents. This was followed by immigration, “Threats to Democracy”, and the “candidate’s background or policy record.”
The pollster’s noted:
“Trump’s GOP has made immigration a signature issue for the party, and Democrats – the party in power – own both the positive and negative aspects of the economy. Translation: The two top issues were great for Republicans.“
Republicans and Independents both were motivated first by the economy and then by immigration, while Democrats were motivated by the perceived “threats to Democracy,” followed by the economy and abortion.
David Byler, NPI Chief of Research explained, “Republican and Democratic candidates ran like they were living in different universes. Democrats cared about abortion and threats to democracy much more than immigration. Republicans saw immigration and the economy as crises caused by the Biden Administration.”
“We saw this same pattern in the pre-election polling. But the election proved that the GOP argument – about the economy, immigration, and dissatisfaction with how Biden governed – won the day.”
The pollster also observed that a potentially fatal flaw in Harris’ campaign was her deep integration within the deliberately named Biden-Harris Administration, which precluded her making a clean-break from an extremely unpopular presidency among Arizona voters.
“As Biden’s VP, most voters (56%) view Harris as an extension of the Biden administration rather than a new politician forging a different path (33%). Arizonans disapproved of Biden’s job performance for most of his tenure as President – which suggests he may have been a liability for the Harris campaign.”
Mike Noble, NPI Founder & CEO noted, “Hindsight is 20/20, but this might be one of the biggest mistakes of the 2024 Democratic process for replacing Biden. They chose someone who was part of the Biden Administration, knowing that he had a poor approval rating. Harris could be tied to Biden in a way that almost nobody could.”
Turning to the Senate race, the results took on a different character entirely. Rather than addressing particular issues or positions as they did in the presidential race, the pollsters’ questioning yielded more emotionally driven responses related to Kari Lake’s favorability, thus not offering a similar distinction in the Senate race. The outlet wrote, “This AZPOP asked voters who had an unfavorable view of Lake (53%) WHY they disliked her, and allowed them to select multiple reasons.”
Based on the narrow breadth of the question and its scope being limited to those who voted against Lake, Noble Predictive Insights found a majority of Gallego supporters either did so because she “denied her 2022 loss in the governor race,” because the respondent “did not like her personally,” or because she “imitated Trump without offering new ideas.”
Matthew Holloway is a senior reporter for AZ Free News. Follow him on X for his latest stories, or email tips to Matthew@azfreenews.com.
by Staff Reporter | Nov 5, 2024 | News
By Staff Reporter |
The last polls before Election Day showed Democratic candidate Ruben Gallego with a slim lead over Republican candidate Kari Lake.
Of the multiple polls conducted over this past weekend, only one showed Lake with a slim lead over Gallego.
Patriot Polling asked over 800 likely voters over the weekend who they would support. Over half — 51 percent — backed Gallego, while 48 percent said they were supporting Lake.
Victory Insights asked over 700 likely voters from last Friday through Sunday who they would support. 50 percent said they would support Gallego, and 47 percent said they would support Lake.
InsiderAdvantage asked 800 likely voters last Friday and Saturday who they would support. 49 percent said Gallego and 47 percent said Lake.
The only polling to show Lake ahead came from Atlas Intel. They asked over 900 likely voters, also on Friday and Saturday, who they would support. 49 percent said Lake while 47 percent said Gallego.
Of the 900 likely voters polled by Emerson College from last Wednesday, 50 percent said they would support Gallego and 45 percent said they would support Lake.
The New York Times and Siena College (polling from October 25 through last Saturday, or nine days total) received the same results as Emerson College when they polled just over 1,000 likely voters.
An average of all polling results from Project FiveThirtyEight show Gallego with a lead of over 49 percent to Lake’s 45 percent.
These latest polling results are consistent with past polling, which have reflected Gallego maintaining a slim lead over Lake.
It would appear that the release of Gallego’s divorce records had no impact on the race, though they were anticipated to measure up as an October surprise and described as “damning” by Lake’s senior advisor Caroline Wren. The records in question contained little beyond what had been covered previously by the media and disclosed voluntarily by Gallego himself. Yavapai Superior Court Judge John Napper described the records as “one of the most garden-variety divorce files” he’d ever come across.
Gallego has built up a consistent lead in the polling, despite recently telling The Bulwark that Arizona remains a “center-right state,” more so than a moderate one based on his experiences.
The Democratic candidate told MSNBC over the weekend that Lake would “contest” the election results if she lost.
“What matters though is most Arizonans want to move beyond election denialism,” said Gallego. “What Kari Lake has done is not just funny and weird — it’s actually very corrosive, and it’s dangerous.”
On Monday, in a late bid to convince the remaining voters to vote for her, Lake’s team released a video taken during one of Gallego’s private fundraisers in which the Democratic candidate admitted that he wasn’t “allowed” to post on his own social media.
“I’m not allowed to tweet out anymore,” said Gallego.
In past years, Gallego has posted inflammatory content on controversial issues, such as deriding prayers in response to tragedy.
“F*** your prayers,” said Gallego.
Gallego’s team took a different approach on Monday. They posted videos depicting Gallego as a family man capable of having non-political conversations.
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