By Matthew Holloway |
Noble Predictive Insights (NPI) released its Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) results on Thursday, offering the closest to a full exit-poll that has been generated in the state so far after the election. Conducted in the last pre-Thanksgiving week of November, the survey spoke to 988 registered voters in Arizona and among other things asked voters specifically, “WHY they voted the way they did.”
The pollsters asked voters to express their reasoning for voting for President-elect Donald Trump versus Vice President Kamala Harris and for Congressman and Senator-elect Ruben Gallego instead of Kari Lake in particular.
Of all concerns that dominated the presidential election, the outlet found, as many polls prior to the election did, that the economy predominated being the most important issue in voters’ decision with 27% of respondents. This was followed by immigration, “Threats to Democracy”, and the “candidate’s background or policy record.”
The pollster’s noted:
“Trump’s GOP has made immigration a signature issue for the party, and Democrats – the party in power – own both the positive and negative aspects of the economy. Translation: The two top issues were great for Republicans.“
Republicans and Independents both were motivated first by the economy and then by immigration, while Democrats were motivated by the perceived “threats to Democracy,” followed by the economy and abortion.
David Byler, NPI Chief of Research explained, “Republican and Democratic candidates ran like they were living in different universes. Democrats cared about abortion and threats to democracy much more than immigration. Republicans saw immigration and the economy as crises caused by the Biden Administration.”
“We saw this same pattern in the pre-election polling. But the election proved that the GOP argument – about the economy, immigration, and dissatisfaction with how Biden governed – won the day.”
The pollster also observed that a potentially fatal flaw in Harris’ campaign was her deep integration within the deliberately named Biden-Harris Administration, which precluded her making a clean-break from an extremely unpopular presidency among Arizona voters.
“As Biden’s VP, most voters (56%) view Harris as an extension of the Biden administration rather than a new politician forging a different path (33%). Arizonans disapproved of Biden’s job performance for most of his tenure as President – which suggests he may have been a liability for the Harris campaign.”
Mike Noble, NPI Founder & CEO noted, “Hindsight is 20/20, but this might be one of the biggest mistakes of the 2024 Democratic process for replacing Biden. They chose someone who was part of the Biden Administration, knowing that he had a poor approval rating. Harris could be tied to Biden in a way that almost nobody could.”
Turning to the Senate race, the results took on a different character entirely. Rather than addressing particular issues or positions as they did in the presidential race, the pollsters’ questioning yielded more emotionally driven responses related to Kari Lake’s favorability, thus not offering a similar distinction in the Senate race. The outlet wrote, “This AZPOP asked voters who had an unfavorable view of Lake (53%) WHY they disliked her, and allowed them to select multiple reasons.”
Based on the narrow breadth of the question and its scope being limited to those who voted against Lake, Noble Predictive Insights found a majority of Gallego supporters either did so because she “denied her 2022 loss in the governor race,” because the respondent “did not like her personally,” or because she “imitated Trump without offering new ideas.”
Matthew Holloway is a senior reporter for AZ Free News. Follow him on X for his latest stories, or email tips to Matthew@azfreenews.com.
