By Staff Reporter |
The last polls before Election Day showed Democratic candidate Ruben Gallego with a slim lead over Republican candidate Kari Lake.
Of the multiple polls conducted over this past weekend, only one showed Lake with a slim lead over Gallego.
Patriot Polling asked over 800 likely voters over the weekend who they would support. Over half — 51 percent — backed Gallego, while 48 percent said they were supporting Lake.
Victory Insights asked over 700 likely voters from last Friday through Sunday who they would support. 50 percent said they would support Gallego, and 47 percent said they would support Lake.
InsiderAdvantage asked 800 likely voters last Friday and Saturday who they would support. 49 percent said Gallego and 47 percent said Lake.
The only polling to show Lake ahead came from Atlas Intel. They asked over 900 likely voters, also on Friday and Saturday, who they would support. 49 percent said Lake while 47 percent said Gallego.
Of the 900 likely voters polled by Emerson College from last Wednesday, 50 percent said they would support Gallego and 45 percent said they would support Lake.
The New York Times and Siena College (polling from October 25 through last Saturday, or nine days total) received the same results as Emerson College when they polled just over 1,000 likely voters.
An average of all polling results from Project FiveThirtyEight show Gallego with a lead of over 49 percent to Lake’s 45 percent.
These latest polling results are consistent with past polling, which have reflected Gallego maintaining a slim lead over Lake.
It would appear that the release of Gallego’s divorce records had no impact on the race, though they were anticipated to measure up as an October surprise and described as “damning” by Lake’s senior advisor Caroline Wren. The records in question contained little beyond what had been covered previously by the media and disclosed voluntarily by Gallego himself. Yavapai Superior Court Judge John Napper described the records as “one of the most garden-variety divorce files” he’d ever come across.
Gallego has built up a consistent lead in the polling, despite recently telling The Bulwark that Arizona remains a “center-right state,” more so than a moderate one based on his experiences.
The Democratic candidate told MSNBC over the weekend that Lake would “contest” the election results if she lost.
“What matters though is most Arizonans want to move beyond election denialism,” said Gallego. “What Kari Lake has done is not just funny and weird — it’s actually very corrosive, and it’s dangerous.”
On Monday, in a late bid to convince the remaining voters to vote for her, Lake’s team released a video taken during one of Gallego’s private fundraisers in which the Democratic candidate admitted that he wasn’t “allowed” to post on his own social media.
“I’m not allowed to tweet out anymore,” said Gallego.
In past years, Gallego has posted inflammatory content on controversial issues, such as deriding prayers in response to tragedy.
“F*** your prayers,” said Gallego.
Gallego’s team took a different approach on Monday. They posted videos depicting Gallego as a family man capable of having non-political conversations.
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