A border security ballot measure might be headed for victory this coming November if numbers from a recent poll hold up.
This week, Noble Predictive Insights (NPI) released a poll, showing that Proposition 314 (the Secure the Border Act) was receiving 63% support for passage. Only 16% of respondents indicated that they were opposing the measure at the ballot box.
According to a press release issued by NPI, “Not all components of the expansive Prop 314 are equally popular. According to the poll, supporters of the measure most strongly back two of its planks: holding drug dealers responsible for the death of a person who consumes a drug containing fentanyl (77% support), and requiring employers to verify the immigration status of workers (75% support). Their feelings are more mixed (56% support) about reforms surrounding how migrants obtain public benefits. Among those who oppose Prop 314, 31% oppose the punishments for fentanyl dealers, 47% are against immigration status verification in the workplace, and 64% oppose the portion determining how migrants obtain public benefits.”
“Opponents will have trouble pushing the argument ‘people are only supporting this because of the fentanyl stuff, they don’t care about the immigration’ – that’s what voters like most about Prop 314,” said Mike Noble, NPI Founder & CEO. “Prop 314 is popular across party lines, and that is a difficult trend to disrupt with only a couple of months until Election Day.”
Proposition 314 was referred to the ballot by Republicans in the Arizona Legislature after Democrat Governor Katie Hobbs and left-wing legislators rebuffed most efforts from conservative lawmakers to pass legislation over the past two years to help secure the border and give law enforcement more tools to protect their communities. After the measure was transmitted to the Arizona Secretary of State, progressive interest groups opposed to the efforts challenged the legislation in court in an attempt to keep it from the ballot. However, multiple state courts rejected those lawsuits and gave the greenlight for voter consideration of Prop 314 in the November General Election.
Arizona Senate President Warren Petersen, who was instrumental in making sure Prop 314 made the ballot, reacted to the news of the NPI polling, telling AZ Free News, “The polling goes hand in hand from what I am hearing from my constituents. They are worried about border security. I think it shows how out of touch our democratic legislators are at the Capitol. Every single Democrat voted ‘no’ on this measure. I’m glad the voters will get to decide this.”
House Speaker Ben Toma, who was the sponsor of the legislative vehicle for the measure, added, “The polling is consistent with what we’ve been hearing from Arizonans all along—they are frustrated with the open border policies of the Biden-Harris administration and are demanding change. They want a secure border and safer communities. Proposition 314 offers meaningful, commonsense reforms to protect our communities, and I am confident it will pass in November.”
Daniel Stefanski is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
A radical Democrat state representative is attempting to return to her middle-of-the-road legislative district for a new term in office.
State Representative Lorena Austin is running for reelection in Arizona Legislative District 9, which covers the city of Mesa. According to the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission, the district is likely one of the most competitive in the state, with a 2.6% vote spread in the Commission’s nine focus elections. Democrats are slightly favored in the district, having won in five of those nine focus elections.
Despite her district being more moderate in its political makeup, Austin has demonstrated a propensity to become one of the most extreme leftist members of the Arizona Legislature on almost every issue.
In a struggling state and national economy, where many families are struggling to get by in life, keep their jobs, and save for their children’s futures, Austin showed no mercy with her votes. This year, she was one of a handful of members to vote against HCR 2002, which stated that the legislature recognizes, encourages, and continues to support Arizona’s beef producing farmers, ranchers, and families. Last year (2023), she voted no on SB 1131, which would have prohibited a county, city, or town from levying a tax on rental property.
Austin is also opposed to individual property rights, as her votes have indicated. In 2023, she was one of 14 members to vote against final passage of a bill prohibiting protestors from targeting people in their own homes by protesting on their residential property (SB 1023).
This latest legislative session (2024), Austin voted no on SB 1129, which would have allowed a property owner or the owners’ agent to request from law enforcement the immediate removal of a person who is unlawfully occupying a residential dwelling. She also opposed SB 1073, which would have established a new form of the existing offense of obstructing a highway or other public thoroughfare and classified this new form of the offense as a class 6 felony (which was introduced in response to protestors blocking traffic).
Austin’s legislative record extends, too, into bouts of radical socialism. In 2023, she co-sponsored HB 2610, which would have created a state-owned bank. Additionally, she co-sponsored HB 2653, which would have established that “restaurants and other food service establishments in this state may only serve water and disposable straws to customers on request.” Earlier this year, Austin voted no on HB 2629, which would have established November 7 of each year as Victims of Communism Day and required the State Board of Education to create a list of recommended resources for mandatory instruction on the topic in certain public school courses.
The Democrat lawmaker has refused to support solutions to help her state end the border crisis affecting almost every community in Arizona – not to mention elsewhere in the nation. In 2023, Austin co-sponsored HB 2604, which would have permitted the Arizona Department of Transportation to issue a driver’s license or nonoperating ID to a person without legal status in the United States. And in this most recent legislative session, she voted no on HB 2621, which would have deemed that the trafficking of fentanyl across Arizona’s border is a public health crisis and directed the Arizona Department of Health Services to do everything within its power to address the crisis. She also opposed SCR 1042, which proclaimed the legislature’s support for the people and government of the state of Texas in its efforts to secure our nation’s southern border.
Austin has an awful record in office on crimes against children. In 2023, she voted against SB 1028, which would have prohibited a person or business from engaging in an adult cabaret performance on public property or in a location where the performance could be viewed by a minor. She also voted no on SB 1583, which would have mandated that a level one sex offender who commits specified sexual offenses is required to register on the internet sex offender website if the offender was sentenced for a dangerous crime against children.
This most recent legislative session (2024), Austin continued her spree of opposing legislation that would have protected more Arizona children from horrific crimes committed against them. She voted no on SB 1236, which would have specified that any offender who was convicted of or adjudicated guilty except insane for sexual crimes against children, whether completed or preparatory, and was 18 years of age or older at the time of the offense, must be included on the internet sex offender website. She also opposed HB 2835, which would have established knowingly observing a nude minor for the purpose of engaging in sexual conduct for a person’s sexual gratification as a form of criminal sexual exploitation of a minor. And Austin voted no on a ballot referral (SCR 1021), which would statutorily require an adult who is convicted of a class 2 felony for any child sex trafficking offense to be sentenced to natural life imprisonment.
As with many of her fellow Democrats running for the state legislature, Austin promotes endorsements from left-leaning organizations for her campaign for the Arizona House of Representatives, including Moms Demand Action, Planned Parenthood Advocates of Arizona, Save Our Schools Arizona, Progressive Turnout Project, HRC in Arizona, AEA Fund for Public Education, NARAL Pro-Choice Arizona, Stonewall Democrats of Arizona, Arizona Education Association, Progressive Change Campaign Committee, Emily’s List, and Human Rights Campaign PAC.
There is one endorsement for Austin that appears to be absent from her website, from the Jane Fonda Climate PAC. Austin’s support from this PAC may be one of the most concerning for voters researching her record and determining which direction they want to see for their district. This PAC asserts that “major solutions are stopped cold: the Green New Deal, Build Back Better, clean energy investments, ending billions in tax subsidies to the fossil fuel industry – all because of politicians backed by Big Oil.”
The Green New Deal pushed by the Jane Fonda Climate PAC is the same championed by New York Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who is one of the most progressive lawmakers in the U.S. House of Representatives.
The district is currently represented by two Democrats in the state House of Representatives. Austin and her fellow Democrat incumbent, Seth Blattman, ran unopposed in the recent primary election. Austin received 10,353 votes, and Blattman obtained 8,741 votes. They will face off against Republicans Mary Ann Mendoza and Kylie Barber, who also ran unopposed in the primary election. Mendoza garnered 10,429 votes, and Barber received 10,136 votes.
November’s General Election will be the second time that Mendoza has been pitted against Austin and Blattman. In 2022, Austin and Blattman defeated Mendoza and her running mate, Kathy Pearce, to assume their offices for the 2023 Arizona legislative session.
Correction: A previous version of this article listed the incorrect vote totals for the candidates. The totals have now been updated with the latest results from the Arizona Secretary of State website.
AZ Free News is your #1 source for Arizona news and politics. You can send us news tips using this link.
A recent report from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) suggests that the ongoing illegal immigration surge at the southern border will reduce the federal deficit by a staggering $897 billion over the next decade.
At first glance, this figure might seem like a silver lining to this national crisis. However, a closer examination reveals a more complex and concerning picture and reveals this report to be another example of the government trying to conceal the truth from American citizens.
While the CBO projects an increase in revenues of $1.175 trillion and an increase in mandatory spending and spending on net interest of $278 billion over the next 10 years, these numbers fail to capture the full scope of the situation. The report’s limitations and glaring omissions paint an incomplete picture that may lead to misguided policy decisions if Congress does not understand the actual fiscal impacts of the border crisis. By publishing such an incomplete report, CBO is playing a role in covering up the Biden-Harris border crisis and not giving Congress the information it needs to fix the problem.
One glaring omission is the exclusion of discretionary spending impacts. The CBO acknowledges that the immigration surge will likely put pressure on many programs funded through discretionary appropriations. In fact, CBO estimates that increased discretionary funding as a result of the border surge could total around $200 billion over the 2024-2034 period. This substantial sum is mentioned but not factored into the deficit reduction calculation because, as CBO says, “no clear basis exists for projecting how the immigration surge will affect [congressional] funding decisions.”
Moreover, the report “does not include estimates of the surge’s effects on state and local budgets.” The CBO itself admits that “[r]esearch has generally found that increases in immigration raise state and local governments’ costs more than their revenues, and CBO expects that finding to hold in the case of the current immigration surge.” New York City alone spent $4.3 billion from July 2022 to March 2024 to accommodate immigrants and comply with existing housing policies. Extrapolating this to other cities over a decade paints a sobering picture of the financial burden on local communities.
The state of Texas was forced to take action on its own. First with Operation Lone Star (OLS), a response to the border crisis triggered by the Biden-Harris administration’s failure to enforce federal laws along the border. OLS has cost Texans about $11 billion and that’s just to secure the border. That does not include costs to the state’s health care, education, and criminal justice systems — which increase with the addition of aliens who have been let in by the Biden-Harris administration. The CBO report does not adequately assess or include these costs and they can be found in every state.
The revenue calculations assume lower tax compliance rates among the population who entered the nation via the border crisis. This raises questions about the accuracy of the projected $1.2 trillion in additional revenue.
Beyond the fiscal impacts, the report hints at broader economic consequences. The illegal immigration surge is expected to lead to lower productivity, reduce average wage growth (particularly for non-college educated workers), higher interest rates, and increased medical and food prices. These factors could have far-reaching effects on the American economy and the well-being of citizens.
Perhaps most concerning is the CBO’s own admission that its “estimates of the budgetary effects of the immigration surge are highly uncertain.” The report lists numerous “[m]ajor sources of uncertainty,” including the number of aliens who have entered the country, the duration of the border crisis itself, the changing immigration status of individuals, and their impact on productivity. Essentially, many metrics crucial to the estimate are shrouded in uncertainty and the authors of the report knew it and still published these estimates that claim mass illegal immigration is good for the deficit.
Making policy decisions based on such questionable projections, where the political left has clearly put its thumb on the scale, could have disastrous consequences and exacerbate existing problems. We must demand a more comprehensive analysis that accounts for all costs — both seen and unseen. Not a report that is politically appealing to the left’s narrative on illegal immigration.
The border crisis is not just about numbers on a balance sheet. As we debate immigration policy, we must consider not just the potential fiscal benefits but also the hidden costs and societal impacts. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimated there were 74,702 fentanyl overdose deaths in the United States last year — a drug we know flows in through our open southern border.
Human trafficking and smuggling into the United States is a booming multi-billion dollar business for Mexican cartels. We must end this crisis now. When comparing the fiscal impacts to the human toll, money seems secondary and that is true, but understanding the monetary effects is important to solving the larger problem.
The CBO report should be seen as deficient and, overall, as a liability since it does not give Congress the information it needs to take action. The future of our nation depends on getting this right.
With an honest and complete assessment, we can get good legislation like the Secure the Border Act signed into law, force strong executive actions from future presidents, and keep Americans safe. These policies will ensure our nation knows who is coming in, and what the impacts of that are to U.S. citizens. But we need the CBO and Washington to stop playing politics with vital information.
In a Monday morning press conference, the Common Sense Institute Arizona (CSI) announced the release of its comprehensive report on “Arizona’s Ongoing Fentanyl Crisis,” for 2024. The prognosis for the state of Arizona is grim with the report detailing the rapidly mounting cost of the fentanyl epidemic in economic terms. From 2015 to 2019 Arizona’s Department of Health Services reported opioid-related encounters in Arizona hospitals skyrocketed from 41,400 to 56,600, an increase of 37%. And the economic cost has leapt to a staggering $58 billion. The US Drug Enforcement Agency has also reported the total seizures of fentanyl in the nation jumped from 6,800 pounds in 2019 to 29,200 in 2024 or by about 320%.
In other key findings published by the Institute, the study found that nationally, the opioid epidemic cost the American people as a whole almost $1 trillion in 2017, with $22 billion of that falling on Arizona alone, and the situation has only become worse in the intervening seven years. Despite the incidence of opioid-related fatal overdoses seeming to peak, they’ve really more plateaued, holding steady at a near all-time high with declines that “have been modest,” and the institute warns “it is premature to assume success in dealing with this crisis.”
🚨 The DEA seized enough fentanyl in Arizona alone to kill every Arizonan 14 times over, if the seizures were of pure fentanyl and assuming a potentially fatal dose is at least 2 mg.
— Common Sense Institute Arizona (@CSInstituteAZ) June 25, 2024
Turning to the medically focused economic impact of the crisis the institute cited CDC modeling of economic costs associated with use-disorder and fatal overdose with the Arizona Department of Health Services reporting over 56,600 opioid hospital encounters at a total cost to the state system of $676 million working out to about $12,000 per medical encounter.
Touching tangentially on the Biden administration’s border policies, the report also noted that “border states have begun to experiment with enforcement of border security – a role traditionally filled by federal authorities,” and observed that Texas has allocated over $5 billion toward the border while Arizona’s expenditure peaked in 2022 under Republican then-Governor Doug Ducey at $560 million.
The institute wrote, “Considering these figures through 2023 and based on state-reported changes in the rate of opioid use and overdose, inflation, and other cost changes, CSI estimates that the cost of the opioid epidemic in Arizona reached an all-time high last year – a staggering $58 billion. This is more than double the $22.5 billion estimated by the CDC in 2017 when then-Gov. Doug Ducey declared the opioid epidemic a public health emergency. The surge appears almost entirely attributable to the rise in fentanyl abuse since then, the source of which appears to be Arizona’s porous southern border.”
Glenn Farley, Director of Policy and Research said in a press release sent to AZ Free News, “The fentanyl crisis is not just a public health issue, it’s also a significant economic and social challenge that affects all Arizonans. The $58 billion cost to our economy is staggering and our report aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of the crisis to better inform policymakers and the public on what we are truly dealing with.”
With the increase in border security expenses and the medical fallout being accounted for, the obvious final element is the most prevalent in lower income neighborhoods as well: crime. Fentanyl addiction of course brings medical crisis and death, but first it often brings a rapid downward spiral into crime, misery, family dissolution, homelessness and violence that has touched nearly every family in Arizona and the nation writ large.
The institute explains, “In 2017, then-Gov. Ducey declared opioid misuse a statewide public health emergency. At the time there were 950 fatal opioid overdoses occurring annually. Today, the number is nearly 2,000 fatal overdoses every year. Crime, too, is on the rise – in Arizona and nationally. Since 2014 the violent crime rate in Phoenix has risen 38%. According to estimates, 25%-50% of all violent crimes are drug-related. Homelessness, too, is on the rise – and despite massive investment, resources are mostly targeted towards housing and shelter, even as homelessness is highly correlated with drug abuse and dependence. Police resources in Arizona have failed to keep pace with the rising demands created by the border, drug, and homelessness crises.”
The report concludes with a chilling reminder that the cost of the opioid epidemic in Arizona is still rising, citing “inflation, widespread availability of the drug at very-low street prices, and continued high incidence of opioid use disorder among Arizonans combined.” As an analysis, the report is thorough and comprehensive in all but one respect which an academic finding cannot possibly satisfy and CSI rightly doesn’t attempt: the crushing, devastating, and brutal human cost that only someone who has lost a loved one to this plague can truly understand.
The study does however, conclude on an appropriately cautionary note: “The battle with fentanyl – in Arizona and nationally – is far from over.”
Arizona Republicans again got the better of Governor Katie Hobbs with their second installment of a state budget amid a tenuous divided government.
On Saturday night, the Republican-led Arizona Legislature passed the 2024-2025 state budget and adjourned for the year after finishing its tasks. This latest budget was negotiated between Senate President Warren Petersen, House Speaker Ben Toma, and Democrat Governor Katie Hobbs.
“Following last year’s state budget, where Republican lawmakers provided inflationary relief to everyday Arizonans through $274 million in tax rebates distributed to struggling families, as well as a ban on the tenant-paid rental tax taking effect this January, Republicans are again successfully supporting our hardworking citizens while simultaneously reining in spending,” said Senate President Warren Petersen. “In this year’s budget, we defended more than $520 million allocated last year for much-needed transportation projects statewide. We also cut fees for Maricopa County drivers on emissions testing by 5%, and we banned fee increases on Arizonans from state boards for the next two years.”
🚨FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: Republicans Eliminate Deficit, Increase Border Security Spending, Fully Fund Public Safety, Protect School Choice, Shrink Government in 2024-2025 State Budget
House Speaker Ben Toma added, “At a time when Arizonans are having to tighten their financial belts, so is state government. The Arizona House of Representatives has passed a fiscally conservative, structurally balanced state budget that solves the nearly $1.5 billion deficit, without touching the rainy-day fund or using budget gimmickry. The budget trims government and protects conservative priorities. It increases funding for local border support operations and assists fentanyl interdiction efforts by law enforcement. It funds transportation and infrastructure and maintains our state’s commitment to water security.”
✅House Approves Fiscally Conservative State Budget that Trims Government and Protects School Choice
“At a time when Arizonans are having to tighten their financial belts, so is state government. The Arizona House of Representatives has passed a fiscally conservative,… pic.twitter.com/yJRtoKAZqb
— Arizona House Republicans (@AZHouseGOP) June 16, 2024
According to a press release from the Arizona Senate Republicans Caucus, some of the highlights from the agreed-upon budget included the following:
Reduction of state spending by $1.7 billion below the 2023-2024 budget (10%);
Reduction of ongoing spending by $330 million; and
Addition of $5 million for local border security support and $4 million for fentanyl interdiction and law enforcement response.
The Senate Republicans also noted that their efforts this year produced a budget that did not add any new taxes, tax increases, or debt. Additionally, the budget did not pull dollars from the rainy-day fund, ensuring that the state would have sufficient funds to draw upon should it experience more stormy weather in future years.
“We tightened the state’s belt by trimming fat from state agencies, and we reallocated unspent tax dollars to the general fund to eliminate the deficit, without irresponsibly tapping into our rainy-day fund,” said Senate Appropriations Chairman John Kavanagh. “Most government operations within the state received a healthy and manageable 3.5% reduction in spending, with a few exceptions. Safe communities free of crime and a secure border are the biggest priorities to Arizonans and Republicans alike, and we want to ensure our budget reflects that. As a result, funding for the Department of Public Safety, the Department of Corrections, and the Arizona Auditor General remains intact, while we’re also investing millions in border security, all without raising taxes or creating new debt.”
“Our budget also reflects our support for our citizens’ Second Amendment rights,” said Senator David Gowan, Chairman of the Senate Committee on Military Affairs, Public Safety & Border Security. “We’re funding two full time positions at the Department of Public Safety to address a backlog of concealed carry permit applications and renewals, with a requirement to prioritize Arizona residents first. This move can have a positive impact in our state by ultimately strengthening the safety and security of our communities as our citizens seek avenues to protect themselves, their families, and their private property. Additionally in this budget, we’re infusing crucial dollars into the Critical Access Hospitals (CAH) located in our rural communities, so these residents have convenient access to emergency care.”
Not every Republican was on board with this budget, however. State Representative Matt Gress explained his “no” vote on the most-recent edition, writing, “This year’s [budget] seems more focused on just ‘getting it done’ than ‘doing it right.’ There’s a reason there is bipartisan opposition. This is not a budget that reflects the shared priorities of Arizonans.”
Gress’ fellow Republican colleague in the chamber, Representative Jacqueline Parker, opined, “Literally the ONLY ones saying good things about this budget are Democrats…”
Literally the ONLY ones saying good things about this budget are Democrats… 🤔 pic.twitter.com/NIW1tSc4KF
— Rep. Jacqueline Parker (@electjacqparker) June 16, 2024
Senator Wendy Rogers weighed in after the vote in her chamber, posting, “This was a solid Republican budget and I voted for it.”
State Representative John Gillette agreed with Rogers’ sentiments, saying, “After a hard fight and two days of voting, we finally passed the 2024-2025 budget with tax cuts and NO new debt. Fiscal responsibility and conservative values prevailed.”
After a hard fight and two days of voting, we finally passed the 2024-2025 budget with tax cuts and NO new debt!
Fiscal responsibility and conservative values prevailed.
Republicans will now have to make the case to Arizona voters in the all-important November General Election about why they should return to power in the state legislature for another two years in a divided government with Governor Hobbs. Throughout the past two years, Republicans have been mostly united and focused on protecting several of their priorities from the clutches of Democrats eager to dismantle values and principles. That balance of power, though, hangs on a knife’s edge as fall awaits.
Daniel Stefanski is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
