The prediction markets say Katie Hobbs is a heavy favorite. The pundits agree. I’ve heard long odds before — I heard them in combat, and I heard them in January when I ran for Party Chair. Here’s what the gamblers and pundits are missing.
This election comes down to one thing: who shows up. And I like our side of that math.
Republicans are the largest voting bloc in Arizona — 1.54 million strong, per the Secretary of State, a 321,000-voter lead over the Democrats. That lead has grown by more than 170,000 voters since 2022: we’ve added nearly 110,000 registrants while Democrats have lost more than 60,000. Their own DNC chair admits Democrats have “been getting our butts kicked” on registration — his words — shedding 2.1 million voters nationwide from 2020 to 2024. He’s right.
Republicans are the most reliable midterm voters in this state — we show up, every cycle, like clockwork. Independents don’t, not in midterms, and 2026 has no presidential race and no Senate race. Governor is the top of the ballot. Hobbs’s entire polling lead is parked with the voters least likely to vote. Ours is built on the voters most likely to show. Monster Republican turnout, uninspiring veto queen, low-turnout independent voters — and her lead evaporates.
And this time, no one has to guess whether their vote counts. The days of Republicans sitting home because they don’t trust the process are over. The RNC and AZGOP already have boots on the ground — Arizona is a priority state in the RNC’s multimillion-dollar election integrity operation, with a state director in place and thousands of trained poll workers, poll watchers, and observers being recruited right now. Eyes and ears on every vote cast and every vote counted. And because we’ve learned the Left doesn’t just campaign — they litigate — our attorneys are on offense: the RNC’s legal team is waging more than 130 election integrity lawsuits across the country, including here at home, where we’ve gone to court to defend Arizona’s early-ballot list maintenance laws and hold Secretary Fontes accountable. Leftist lawfare doesn’t get a free shot at this election. Not on my watch.
Trust the process, bank your ballot early, bring your neighbor. That’s the whole playbook.
Meanwhile, look at the incumbent. Hobbs’s disapproval has climbed to 43% and rising. Most Arizonans have never once said the state is on the right track under her. She squeaked by in 2022 by 17,117 votes. And she’ll spend this fall dodging questions about four separate pay-to-play inquiries — including a criminal probe by her own Party’s attorney general, whose investigators have asked to interview her as they close out a two-year investigation. Hobbs is uncomfortable talking about it. She’s nervous. She vetoed transparency legislation. Twice. Arizonans notice.
Andy Biggs doesn’t have her problems. He has a united party standing fully behind its nominee, the biggest voter bloc in Arizona, and a turnout machine that’s already running.
The gambling markets say Katie Hobbs. I’m the chairman of 1.5 million people who’d like to say otherwise. A lot of people are about to learn that they shouldn’t gamble against Arizona voters.
Sergio Arellano serves as Chairman of the Arizona Republican Party.
Congressman Andy Biggs is projected to win the Republican nomination for Arizona governor. The Associated Press also called several of the state’s closely watched primary races, including the Republican secretary of state contest for Rep. Alexander Kolodin.
Biggs led Rep. David Schweikert and businessmen Ken Miceli and Scott Neely when the AP called the four-way Republican primary in his favor. He will face Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs, who ran unopposed for her party’s nomination, in the Nov. 3 general election.
The AP declares a winner when its decision team determines that trailing candidates no longer have a path to victory. The election results remain unofficial, pending the official statewide canvass on August 6.
Biggs has represented Arizona’s Fifth Congressional District since January 2017 and previously served as president of the Arizona Senate. He chaired the House Freedom Caucus from 2019 to 2022 and entered the gubernatorial primary with endorsements from Turning Point USA and President Donald Trump.
Schweikert has represented Arizona in Congress since 2011 and currently holds the First Congressional District seat. He remained in Washington during Tuesday’s election as the House considered a government funding bill.
In the secretary of state race, Republican state Rep. Alexander Kolodin defeated former Arizona Republican Party Chair Gina Swoboda for the GOP nomination. Kolodin will face Democratic Secretary of State Adrian Fontes, who ran unopposed in his party’s primary, in the Nov. 3 general election. The secretary of state serves as Arizona’s chief election officer and oversees statewide election administration, business filings, and state records and archives.
WASHINGTON (AP) — Alexander Kolodin wins Republican nomination for secretary of state in Arizona. #APRaceCall at 11:17 p.m. EDT. https://t.co/TS3eIpQI5W
The AP also called the Republican primary for Schweikert’s open First Congressional District seat for former Arizona Cardinals kicker and sportscaster Thomas “Jay” Feely IV.
Feely defeated former state Rep. Joseph Chaplik and technology and telecommunications executive John Trobough. President Trump endorsed Feely after he moved from the Fifth District race into the contest to succeed Schweikert.
WASHINGTON (AP) — Thomas Feely wins Republican nomination for U.S. House in Arizona's 1st Congressional District. #APRaceCall at 11:13 p.m. EDT. https://t.co/TS3eIpQI5W
The First District includes northeast Phoenix, Scottsdale, Fountain Hills and Paradise Valley. Republicans hold a voter-registration advantage in the district, although the seat has become increasingly competitive in recent elections. Schweikert defeated Democratic nominee Amish Shah with 51.9 percent of the vote in 2024.
Former television journalist Marlene Galán-Woods led the initial Democratic First District results against Shah, publisher Rick McCartney, and entrepreneur Jonathan Treble. The Associated Press had not called the Democratic contest Tuesday night.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee supported Galán-Woods in the primary. Shah won the party’s nomination for the district in 2024 before narrowly losing the general election to Schweikert.
Former Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb won the Republican nomination to succeed Biggs in the Fifth Congressional District. Lamb defeated construction company owner Daniel Keenan.
WASHINGTON (AP) — Mark Lamb wins Republican nomination for U.S. House in Arizona's 5th Congressional District. #APRaceCall at 11:11 p.m. EDT. https://t.co/TS3eIpQI5W
President Trump endorsed Lamb, who previously sought the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate in 2024. The Associated Press described the Fifth District as a safely Republican seat.
The Democratic Fifth District primary included Elizabeth Lee, Chris James and Brian Hualde. The Associated Press had not called that contest at the time of publication.
Republican Rep. Juan Ciscomani and Democratic challenger JoAnna Mendoza advanced without primary opposition in the Sixth Congressional District, establishing the general-election matchup in one of Arizona’s most competitive congressional seats.
The results remain unofficial while Arizona counties continue processing ballots and complete their required canvasses. County boards of supervisors face an Aug. 3 deadline to canvass the primary results, followed by the official statewide canvass on Aug. 6.
Several races, including the GOP nominations for Attorney General, Treasurer, Corporation Commission, and Superintendent of Public Instruction, remained too close to call as of 10 PM Tuesday.
A recent campaign ad from the Democrat incumbent governor cost her millions, but critics and past reporting indicate the ad is misleading and takes credit for work done by Republicans.
Gov. Katie Hobbs’ 30-second “Work” ad released last month claimed that she reduced electricity bills, cut red tape to build more affordable housing, and balanced the budget. Critics across the political spectrum assessed these claims as misleading.
Utility rates have increased by more than 25% under the Hobbs administration.
The Arizona Free Enterprise Club calculated based on Energy Information Administration data that utility rates in Arizona have increased by an average of 27% under Hobbs’ tenure. The Arizona Corporation Commission (ACC) sets rates.
The largest donor to Hobbs’ controversial inaugural fund, Arizona Public Service, also wants to increase the utility rates by 14%. That ratemaking case is ongoing with the ACC.
The Hobbs administration imposed more red tape on housing construction that had the effect of imposing a housing moratorium. A court struck down that red tape earlier this year as an unlawful overreach in agency rulemaking, a ruling which has the potential to put Arizona taxpayers on the hook for over $1 billion in compensation claims.
One developer duo, Buckeye Tartesso I and II, already filed such a claim last September with the help of the Goldwater Institute. The duo is seeking over $320 million in compensation for lost value, an amount their demand letter claimed was a compilation of conservative, not maximum, estimates.
Budget talks were repeatedly called off and subjected to a bill moratorium by Hobbs as she tried to impose what Republican lawmakers characterized as unrealistic revenue assumptions, hidden tax increases, and cost-raising policies.
In the thick of budget talks earlier this year, House Speaker Steve Montenegro (R-LD29) commented that Hobbs’ budgeting style was reminiscent of the more liberal-style budgets coming out of California: fiscal approaches which increase government size and create inconsistencies within the tax system. Hobbs held out on securing tax conformity for months to align the Arizona tax code with many of the congressional changes passed under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act
Hobbs has been accused by bipartisan critics of turning her inheritance of a $2.5 billion surplus from former governor Doug Ducey into a $1.6 billion shortfall.
Last summer, a report by the Common Sense Institute Arizona found that state spending outpaced the $3.3 billion in revenues that emerged following the passage of the flat tax in 2023.
Per the Hobbs campaign, the ad buys required millions from her campaign coffers.
Additionally, the Hobbs campaign press release implied that the Spanish-speaking version of her “Work” ad, “No Se Rinde” (“Doesn’t Give Up”), was uniform in its messaging. However, the ads contained key differences that indicated an awareness of Arizona’s split demographics.
Both opened with a characterization of Hobbs’ background as a mother who worked multiple jobs and as a social worker, but differed distinctly in their portrayals of Hobbs’ approach to governance.
The English-speaking ad, “Work,” depicted Hobbs as a budget and policy expert with key wins in electricity bill and red tape cuts, and school lunch and community college scholarship expansions.
The English ad described Hobbs as working fast food and Uber jobs to make ends meet. It included the misleading claims that Hobbs was responsible for balancing the budget without raising taxes, reducing electricity bills, and cutting affordable housing red tape, along with the valid claims that she expanded school lunches and community college scholarships.
The Spanish version of the ad, “No Se Rinde,” depicted Hobbs as a social worker with key wins in medical debt forgiveness, medical cost cuts, and salary boosts. Hobbs forgave $30 million in medical debts early on in her administration.
The Spanish-speaking ad similarly characterized Hobbs as having a background as a working mother, but only highlighted her past Uber driving work and expanded on her time as a social worker as mainly aiding female domestic violence victims. The ad further diverged in describing Hobbs as responsible for canceling tens of millions in medical debt, reducing medical costs with discounts up to 80 percent, and raising salaries.
A Centers for Disease Control report published in 2024 suggested that Latino and Hispanic women have a disproportionately higher risk of experiencing domestic violence: one in three, indicating an occurrence average up to three times higher than white women.
Close to a quarter of all Latinos in Arizona are uninsured, as are nearly half of all illegal aliens, according to a 2022 research analysis from the Latino Policy & Politics Institute. Approximately 80% of Latino families in Arizona reported financial trouble according to recent polling by UnidosUS; nearly half of Latinos across Arizona, California, and Texas reported medical debt in a 2024 UnidosUS poll.
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Gov. Katie Hobbs stands accused of illegally commingling millions in funds to subsidize her campaign.
A letter sent by attorney Tim La Sota to Secretary of State Adrian Fontes earlier this month accuses the governor of commingling funds between her reelection campaign committee, Elect Katie Hobbs, and two other entities which submit funds to her campaign committee.
Elect Katie Hobbs and all other candidate campaign committees are restricted in the types of funds they may accept. Campaign committees must rely on what’s known in campaign finance parlance as “hard money,” or donations given by individuals directly to a political candidate, and cannot accept “soft money,” or donations or contributions collected into political action committees (PACs) from corporations or unions. Individual donations are limited to $5,500 per person.
The letter claims that Hobbs has used a PAC, which it claims to be hers, Copper State Values, as an unlawful repository for soft money to be used for Elect Katie Hobbs expenses. Allegedly, Copper State Values receives soft money funds from Hobbs’ joint fundraising committee PAC, the Katie Hobbs Victory Fund, and then sends the funds on to Elect Katie Hobbs and other political entities working to reelect Hobbs such as the Navajo County Democrat Party and the Arizona Democratic Party.
“Candidate contribution limits mean little if candidates can simply funnel money that the candidate herself cannot legally receive to a political action committee and turn around and have that political action committee pay for that candidate’s campaign expenses,” said the letter.
Since 2023, Elect Katie Hobbs has accrued more than $7.8 million and spent more than $4 million, Copper State Values has accrued more than $3.8 million and spent more than $2 million, and Katie Hobbs Victory Fund has respectively accrued and spent more than $1.8 million.
The letter further described Copper State Values as unusual since it lacked the typical hallmarks of a PAC, such as a political activity or a website. The PAC’s main activity appears to be the alleged shared expenses with Elect Katie Hobbs for which it pays, such as payroll, rent, and travel.
“The PAC seems to only function as a repository of monies that are then distributed to various left-wing entities, who will presumably help the Governor get elected — that and paying for expenses that legally must be paid by [Elect Katie Hobbs],” stated the letter. “[I]n terms of the PAC, it seems to do nothing but receive money and distribute money. It does not have any discernible political activity in terms of expenditures for express advocacy. It does not even have a website. And yet, it racks up hundreds of thousands of dollars in expenses, money that it reimburses to Elect Katie Hobbs.”
Hobbs’ reelection campaign manager, Nicole DeMont, serves as the chair of Copper State Values, and both Copper State Values and Elect Katie Hobbs share the same address, email address, and treasurer, Dacey Montoya.
The letter noted that Demont’s consulting firm, Monteverde Strategies, has received about $55,000 from Copper State Values. It also noted that Capital Strategies, a consultant for Hobbs, has received more than $198,000 from Copper State Values, though the consultant doesn’t disclose its relationship to the PAC on its website page for current and former clients.
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Gov. Katie Hobbs has signed an executive order prohibiting Arizona executive branch employees from using nonpublic government information to profit through prediction markets.
The governor signed Executive Order 2026-02 last week, directing covered state employees to refrain from disclosing or using information obtained through public service to earn profits, avoid financial losses, or help another person or organization financially benefit from prediction-market transactions.
Violations may result in dismissal, other employment sanctions, or referral to law enforcement, according to the order.
“Arizonans deserve a state government that works for them, not one where insiders exploit public service for their own gain,” Hobbs said. “I’m proud to set clear, commonsense ethical standards on prediction markets to hold our government accountable. Public service is a privilege, and we will not tolerate anybody abusing that privilege to line their own pockets.”
Prediction markets allow participants to trade contracts tied to the outcome of future events, including elections, government actions, military operations, weather, sporting events, and economic developments.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission describes event contracts as swaps that are often structured around yes-or-no outcomes. Their prices reflect market expectations, and contracts typically provide a fixed payout, usually $1, when the selected outcome occurs.
Hobbs’ order designates as confidential any nonpublic information obtained by covered executive branch workers that could be used to profit or avoid a loss through a prediction market.
That provision corresponds with Arizona’s conflict-of-interest law, ARS §38-504(B), which prohibits public officers and employees from using appropriately designated confidential information for personal profit during their government service and for two years afterward. The law also prohibits the unauthorized disclosure or use of information declared confidential by law.
The order covers employees and officers of the Governor’s Office, executive departments, state agencies and offices, and most state boards and commissions.
Its definition excludes agencies headed by a single independently elected state official, the Arizona Corporation Commission, and boards or commissions established by ballot measure during or after the November 1998 general election.
Hobbs encouraged other statewide elected officials, independent boards and commissions, and the legislative and judicial branches to establish comparable policies for their employees.
The order does not create an independent legal claim or remedy and cannot serve as the basis for challenging an action or inaction by a state agency, officer, or employee. It also states that the policy does not alter existing agency powers or override state or federal laws, regulations, or court orders.
The governor cited recent reports and a federal criminal case involving alleged use of government information to place wagers on military operations.
The U.S. Department of Justice announced in April that Army soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke had been indicted for allegedly using classified information concerning a planned military operation in Venezuela to make wagers on Polymarket.
Federal prosecutors alleged that Van Dyke participated in planning “Operation Absolute Resolve,” a U.S. operation to capture Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, and placed approximately $33,034 in wagers while possessing nonpublic information about the mission.
Van Dyke allegedly profited approximately $409,881 after contracts concerning Maduro’s removal and the presence of U.S. forces in Venezuela resolved in Van Dyke’s favor. Prosecutors charged Van Dyke with violations of the Commodity Exchange Act, wire fraud, and conducting an unlawful monetary transaction. The charges remain allegations, and no conviction was reported in the Justice Department’s announcement.
In March, Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes filed 20 criminal charges against KalshiEx LLC and Kalshi Trading LLC, the companies behind the Kalshi prediction-market platform. Mayes alleged that the companies operated an unlicensed gambling business and unlawfully accepted wagers on elections.
In May, U.S. District Judge Michael Liburdi granted the Commodity Futures Trading Commission a preliminary injunction barring Arizona from enforcing its gambling laws through criminal or civil actions involving event contracts listed on CFTC-regulated designated contract markets. Liburdi found that the federal government was likely to succeed on its claim that the Commodity Exchange Act preempts Arizona’s gambling laws in that context.
Hobbs’ order took effect immediately upon signing and will remain in force until it is repealed, replaced, or rescinded by a future executive order.
