In a recent report, the Common Sense Institute of Arizona (CSI) addressed the gradual slowing of enrollment in Arizona’s Empowerment Scholarship Account (ESA) program and traditional public school classrooms. The report shows that despite narratives for one or the other, the decline in both can be explained quite directly as a matter of demographics and parental choice.
In a press release issued Monday, CSI explained, “Headlines about declining enrollment and the subsequent financial struggles this creates in Arizona’s public schools have caught the state’s attention. However, CSI’s data shows this shift was inevitable, driven by dramatic demographic changes and a shift in enrollment preferences during the pandemic.”
Among CSI’s findings, it found that the school-age population of Arizona peaked in 2021 and is projected to decrease by 40,000 by 2028, heavily impacting an educational system which was structurally predicated on the assumption of a continually growing population.
CSI added, “The 2012 kindergarten cohort—the state’s largest ever—is now preparing to graduate. Future K-12 enrollment is not expected to grow in the foreseeable future.”
Arizona’s Public School Enrollment Decline: No Surprise
CSI research shows Arizona’s K-12 demographic shift has been years in the making: 📉 School-aged population peaked in 2021 🎓 The largest kindergarten class (2012) is now preparing to graduate 👶 By 2028, the school-aged… pic.twitter.com/u5rbGnVLFp
— Common Sense Institute Arizona (@CSInstituteAZ) January 28, 2025
CSI observed further that during the COVID-19 lockdowns, Arizona’s public schools lost 50,000 enrolled students from 2020-2021. Only 18,000 of those students re-enrolled in charter schools with the remaining approximate 32,000 otherwise unaccounted for. It is likely that this number presents a combination of expanded home schooling, relocation out of Arizona, and even enrollment in private schools. Indeed, the report indicates that private school enrollment spiked by 33% over that period with homeschooling experiencing a surge from 2% of the total student population to 11%, and settling back to 6% as of today.
Glenn Farley, CSI Arizona’s Director of Policy and Research summarized, “Arizona’s classrooms are entering a new era. The numbers have been clear for years: the system built for growth has reached its peak. Moving forward, policymakers must adapt to a smaller, more diverse student population and rethink how we allocate resources.”
Arizona’s Public School Enrollment Decline is No Surprise According to the Common Sense Institute Arizona–
— Common Sense Institute Arizona (@CSInstituteAZ) January 28, 2025
The CSI report noted the effect on budgetary considerations has been extreme. “Declining public school enrollments since 2020 reduced public K-12 funding formula costs by an estimated $450 million/year, and growing, compared to pre-pandemic trends. Since last year, the universal ESA program has returned these ‘missing kids’ to the public K-12 rolls – reinvesting prior ‘savings’ into education.”
The ESA, a subject of controversy in the state legislature, has reached a “steady state” according to CSI, with the recent period of rapid growth unlikely to be repeated and future increases owing almost exclusively to parental and student choice.
CSI concluded, “Demographic changes likely mean fewer school-aged children and lower overall enrollment across Arizona’s publicly funded K-12 options over the next ten years. And ultimately it is this demographic change, and pandemic-era changes in parental behavior that are changing K-12 in Arizona – and not-so-much universal ESA itself.”
As previously reported by AZ Free News, Governor Katie Hobbs’ repeated attacks on ESAs have centered primarily on the narrative of the program alternately being “rife with waste, fraud and abuse,” being costly to the state budget, and calling for a repeal of the popular program.
Arizona Congressman Andy Biggs announced on Saturday to the Arizona Republican Party’s 2025 Statutory Meeting that, following his “Statement of Interest” to run against Democrat incumbent Governor Katie Hobbs, he is formally running for Governor of Arizona.
Biggs addressed the body, which re-elected AZGOP Chairwoman Gina Swoboda, and made the announcement. Footage shared to X by Activist Nico Delgado captured the moment when Biggs told meeting attendees, “I am jumping in formally to the race for governor in 2026. Thank you.”
BREAKING: Congressman Andy Biggs officially announces that he is running for Governor of Arizona pic.twitter.com/veM2R9n1Zy
“I am jumping in formally,” he said. “It is now time to Make Arizona Great Again,” according to AZ Capitol Times. The outlet noted that Biggs first asked the party leaders if he should get a haircut before asking if they would support his bid for the 9th Floor.
In a follow up post to X later in the day, Biggs wrote, “It’s time to Make Arizona Great Again! I am excited to be in the race for Governor and look forward to serving all Arizonans! Sign my petition at http://biggsforarizona.com!”
It’s time to Make Arizona Great Again! I am excited to be in the race for Governor and look forward to serving all Arizonans!
In an exclusive AZ Free News poll conducted by Data Orbital, Biggs is dominating early polling with 31.7%, a commanding 19.3 point lead over Karrin Taylor Robson. State Treasurer Kimberly Yee trailed with 7.4%
A new poll shows @repandybiggs with a big lead over other potential GOP opponents in the 2026 race for AZ governor. The results saw Biggs take an early polling lead with 31.7%, Taylor Robson who had 12.4% support, & Yee trailed with 7.4% support.https://t.co/jlR5VXRdlU
A subsequent poll released by NicoPAC covered 512 Registered Voters in Arizona “weighed for race, age and gender following a mix of voter registration data, past election data from the Arizona Secretary of State’s office, and the ACS.” It saw Biggs take 58.5% with Taylor Robson dropping behind Yee at 8.8%, and the Arizona Treasurer climbing to double digits with 10.8%.
Biggs’ announcement was followed by Turning Point USA Founder Charlie Kirk and was later supported by former his former congressional colleague Matt Gaetz.
In an interview with Steve Bannon’s War Room on Rumble prior to the formal announcement, Congressman Eli Crane also offered his tacit endorsement of Biggs telling Bannon, “I think Andy is the most conservative and probably the strongest member of the U.S. House. He was also President of the Senate in Arizona. He knows Arizona. He knows how the system works better than anybody. I don’t think anybody would do a better job. You know, he has my full support, and I know he has the support of the War Room Posse… I hope he pulls the trigger and goes all the way through with it.”
WATCH:
Former Arizona State Representative Austin Smith also shared his support in a lengthy post to X, writing in part that Arizonans “won’t have a revolving door of contract lobbyists on the 9th Floor deciding what legislation is signed and needs to be vetoed.”
Why @andybiggs4az is the right choice for Republicans in Arizona for 2026:
– effective, reliable and bonafide conservative vote in Congress.
– had the courage to vacate the chair during a do-nothing speakership.
Governor Katie Hobbs is now facing a serious legal challenge from the Goldwater Institute, acting on behalf of the Home Builders Association of Central Arizona, to put a stop to what Goldwater described as “one of the most significant bureaucratic overreaches in Arizona’s history.”
On Wednesday, Goldwater announced the lawsuit against Arizona’s Democrat Governor stating that Hobbs is “taking illegal actions” that would worsen the state’s ongoing housing crisis by imposing a certification requirement in parts of Maricopa County that, in addition to showing a 100-year groundwater supply, must also meet the dubious standard of “unmet demand.”
The Goldwater Institute has a proud history of fighting government overreach in Arizona and beyond. 💪 We’ll continue to hold bureaucrats accountable and defend your rights from those who overstep their authority.
Writing for Goldwater, Stacy Skankey explained, “Although the phrase ‘unmet demand’ does not exist in Arizona law, this new rule now requires homebuilders to show a 100-year groundwater supply across the entire water management area (a specially designated area with a reliance on groundwater) rather than at the site of the proposed development. In other words, if a groundwater shortage is projected anywhere within a management area, the Department of Water Resources now claims that there is insufficient groundwater elsewhere in the Valley.”
As reported by AZ Free News in December, Goldwater penned a letter to the Arizona Department of Water Resources (ADWR) urging the agency under Hobbs to reconsider its “AMA Wide Unmet Demand Rule,” noting that the new rule was in violation of the law having been imposed without legislative approval or via the required rulemaking process.
According to ADWR, “Unmet demand occurs when the model cannot simulate pumping of all demands included, thereby creating a pumping shortfall or deficit. This pumping shortfall or deficit occurs when there is insufficient saturated aquifer to satisfy the pumping demand (i.e., the depth-to-water level reaches bedrock) or when the depth to water exceeds 1,100 feet after 100 years of simulated pumping.”
Essentially, unmet demand occurs when the state’s modeling is insufficient to predict demand. In other words, the basis for shutting down Arizona housing development is that the Hobbs administration’s simulation doesn’t work.
As noted in an op-ed for the AZ Capitol Times by CEO of the Home Builders Association of Central Arizona Jackson Moll and Goldwater Institute Vice President for Litigation Jon Riches, the Phoenix Active Management Area (AMA) Groundwater Model being used by the Hobbs administration, coupled with the ‘unmet demand’ standard, moves the goalposts on developers who have mitigated impact on the state’s water needs for nearly 30 years by replenishing pumped groundwater back into the water table.
Riches said in a statement, “Decisions on vital statewide concerns like the availability of affordable housing and the responsible stewardship of our natural resources should be made through a transparent, democratic process—not imposed by executive fiat.”
Moll added, “Gov. Hobbs’ deeply inaccurate and flawed claim that Arizona is running out of groundwater is having devastating effects on housing affordability in the state, which already ranks among the worst in the country.”
Another Arizona lawmaker is pushing back against the governor’s budget for the upcoming fiscal year.
Earlier this week, Arizona State Representative Gail Griffin issued a scathing response to Governor Katie Hobbs’ recently released budget for Fiscal Year 2026. Griffin, the Chairman of the House Natural Resources, Energy & Water Committee, wrote, “As usual, the Governor talks a big game on water but does little to prioritize the solutions that matter.”
The all-important issue of “water” in Arizona has been a source of great contention over the past two years with the state’s current status of a divided government. In Hobbs’ State of the State address, she said, “As I said when I stood before you last year, we must act now to protect Arizona’s water. And when the Legislature did not, I did. I remain committed to true, bipartisan reform to protect our groundwater. But mark my words, if this Legislature fails to act. I will… Again. Further, any bills that attack our assured water supply program, undermine our water future, or are political cover for this Legislature’s lack of action on water security, will meet my veto pen.”
Hobbs proposed a $3 million investment to create a Colorado River Litigation Fund to “ensure that The Department of Water Resources (ADWR) has the resources to defend Arizona’s interests and water users who depend on the State’s precious Colorado River entitlement.” The governor also requested another six full-time employees for ADWR “to meet the demanding water policy challenges facing Arizona,” among other proposals from her team, including almost five million dollars for renovations to fish hatcheries across the state.
Representative Griffin also stated, “With Governor Hobbs’ latest proposal, it seems the Governor is more interested in building new homes for fish and birds than building new homes for hard-working Arizonans. Nothing in the Governor’s budget does anything to increase the critical supply of for-sale housing or support the American Dream of home ownership.”
Griffin added, “Arizona House Republicans are committed to advancing fiscally responsible solutions that address our critical housing and water supply issues, preserve the American Dream, and unleash economic prosperity in our state while protecting our individual rights and liberties. We will continue to put the interests of Arizona citizens first – and this will be reflected in our ongoing budget negotiations and proposals.”
The longtime Arizona Republican legislator’s comments about housing and water policies mirrored what two Senate lawmakers in her party had to say following the governor’s state of the state address earlier this month. In a video following the speech, Arizona Senate President Warren Petersen said, “We agree with the Governor that home ownership has become unaffordable for many Arizonans… but the Executive’s mandate halting home construction in two of the most booming areas of the valley was irresponsible, and first-time homebuyers are suffering the consequences of sky-high prices.”
Senate President Pro-Tempore T.J. Shope noted, “We must build. We have the water to support the growth. We use the same amount of water today that we did 70 years ago – and we have 6 million more people today! Arizona knows how to conserve water. Right now we have legislation to allow us to continue to grow and build homes while conserving water. Governor, sign our Ag-to-Urban bill. You vetoed it last year. Don’t make the same mistake twice.”
Daniel Stefanski is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
Arizona Democrats are standing behind a budget proposal from the state’s governor.
Late last week, Governor Katie Hobbs released her budget for Fiscal Year 2026 for the State of Arizona. Hobbs, a Democrat, championed her priorities of “opportunity, security, and freedom for Arizonans” in a statement that accompanied her budget proposal, which was the third of her first term in office as the state’s chief executive.
My Executive Budget reflects my commitment to continuing our strong economic growth, lowering costs, keeping communities safe, and protecting Arizonans’ fundamental freedoms. Together, we’ll realize the Arizona Promise.
The top Democrat lawmakers in both chambers of the Arizona Legislature were quick to respond. House Democratic Leader Oscar De Los Santos said,“The Governor’s budget is tightly aligned with our Caucus priorities in several key ways —especially with its focus on affordability, affordability, and affordability. While greedy corporations try to fleece and price-gouge working families, we must do everything we can to slash costs. Thankfully, the Governor has put forward solid and workable plans to cut costs for childcare, housing, and more — which give us an excellent starting place for the bipartisan negotiations that it will take to pass a budget that works for every Arizonan. As the chaos and tariffs of the incoming Trump Administration threaten to drive up prices on basic necessities like food and healthcare, it’s more important than ever that here in Arizona we make much-needed investments to protect hard-working families and make life more affordable.”
PRESS RELEASE: Senate and House Democratic Leaders Respond to Gov. Hobbs' Year-Three Budget Plan #azlegpic.twitter.com/idaIzo2hQE
Senate Democratic Leader Priya Sundareshan added,”I applaud the Governor and her team for their work and dedication to putting forward a fiscally responsible budget proposal. This proposal has a desperately needed focus on ensuring Arizona is an affordable place to live, raise a family, and build a business. It is my hope that Republicans choose to partner with the Governor to adopt the outlined common-sense constraints on the out-of-control universal ESA voucher scheme. The strain of this program paired with years of irresponsible Republican budgeting have left our state in critical need of the investments this proposal seeks to make in Tribal communities, working families, affordable housing, and responsible groundwater management.”
Arizona Democrat legislators will likely be on the outside looking in at another process of budget negotiations in a divided state government. Over the past two years, Republican legislative leaders have spearheaded negotiations for the fiscal packages with Hobbs and her team from the Ninth Floor of the Governor’s Office. Republicans have also been able to protect all their priorities from Democrats throughout those budget agreements, while managing to extract significant concessions from Hobbs and Democrats.
Daniel Stefanski is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
