Everyone knows that political pundits, social media influencers, and the corporate media love a good narrative. And one of their favorites for years has been the claim that Arizona is trending blue—that a demographic shift toward Democrats is inevitable.
This ‘conventional wisdom’ is repeated so often that much of the Republican political class in the state has accepted it as fact. Some are even advising candidates that the only path forward for Republicans is to abandon their conservative principles, embrace center-left policy solutions, and settle for a future of divided government.
But a funny thing about narratives and conventional wisdom: numbers don’t lie, especially those showing party preference when people are registering to vote.
Last month, the Secretary of State updated the statewide voter registration data prior to the Presidential Preference Election. The latest figures show that Republicans are once again the largest voting bloc in Arizona, surpassing Independents by nearly 40,000. This is certainly an important development—especially given all the attention it received on social media when Independent registrations surpassed Republicans last year.
But that’s not the most significant voter registration trend…
Within hours of U.S. Senator Kyrsten Sinema’s announcement on Friday that she is now a registered independent voter, posturing began for the 2024 election as the public learned just how deep the divide is within the Arizona Democratic Party.
Sinema took part in multiple media appearances to explain her decision, stressing her bipartisan efforts and focus on being an “independent voice” as Arizona’s senior senator despite being the Democratic nominee in 2018 against then-Sen. Martha McSally.
“Removing myself from the partisan structure — not only is it true to who I am and how I operate, I also think it’ll provide a place of belonging for many folks across the state and the country, who also are tired of the partisanship,” Sinema said.
In a natural extension of my service since I was first elected to Congress, I have joined the growing numbers of Arizonans who reject party politics by declaring my independence from the broken partisan system in Washington and formally registering as an Arizona Independent. 1/3 pic.twitter.com/jUQHAeuxym
In another statement Friday, Sinema noted her independent minded approach “is rare in Washington and has upset partisans in both parties,” but she believes it is “an approach that has delivered lasting results for Arizona.”
Sinema’s sentiment that she has well-served her constituents is not universally shared by Democrats back home, where her lack of enthusiastic support for many Democratic candidates in the 2022 election cycle, including Secretary of State Katie Hobbs’ run for governor, caused frustration for the Arizona Democratic Party.
Friday’s defection announcement was met by a good riddance style statement from state party leaders, who said everything except don’t let the door hit you on the way out.
“Senator Sinema may now be registered as an Independent, but she has shown she answers to corporations and billionaires, not Arizonans,” the statement read. “Senator Sinema’s party registration means nothing if she continues to not listen to her constituents.”
Some of Sinema’s votes in past years vexed key party leaders, but the discontent remained mostly under the surface until January. That is when the Arizona Democratic Party’s executive board censured Sinema for opposing changes to the Senate’s filibuster rules so that Democrats could push through voting rights legislation in advance of the 2022 election cycle.
Over the last two election cycles, the number of Arizona voters now registered as independents or no-party designated is almost equal to the number of registered Republicans, while independents outnumber registered Democrats by about 110,000 voters.
If Sinema seeks reelection in 2024, a run as an independent allows her to avoid a rough primary such as one U.S. Representative Ruben Gallego has been suggesting for months that he plans to put forth. Gallego issued a statement Friday that promoted his donation webpage while criticizing Sinema.
Meanwhile, U.S. Rep. Greg Stanton decried suggestions that Sinema’s decision was somehow connected to a “post-partisan epiphany.” Instead, the former Phoenix mayor said it was “about political preservation” in light of Sinema’s recent polling numbers.
However, Sinema’s move was applauded by many Conservatives, including Larry Elder, former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich, and Twitter CEO Elon Musk.
.@SenatorSinema has left the Democrat party. The only reason more democrats don’t leave is that social media has convinced them that the doors are locked.#TwitterFiles2
Senator Kyrsten Sinema’s switch to independent because she will”not be stuck into one party’s demands of following without thinking” is a reminder that the Democrats increasingly have two wings-weird and insane. Republicans should learn to be more inclusive of individualism.
Sinema’s voter registration switch ensures far-left Democrats will lose any foothold they expected to have after the recent Georgia runoff gave Democrats a slim 51 to 49 majority in the Senate. However, she is expected to retain all of her committee assignments from Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, the Senate’s top-ranking Democrats.
Unlike fellow independents Sen. Angus King (Maine) and Sen. Bernie Sanders (Vermont) who formally caucus with Democrats, Sinema says she does not plan to caucus with any party.
Terri Jo Neff is a reporter for AZ Free News. Follow her latest on Twitter, or send her news tips here.
Following Tuesday’s primary election win, Republican Senate candidate Blake Masters appears to have shifted his campaign tone to appeal to independent voters. That base of “other” voters is the second largest, a close second to registered Republicans.
In a campaign video released Wednesday, Masters’ descriptors now read “independent.” Past videos displayed prominently former President Donald Trump’s endorsement, as well as his features on right-leaning networks like Fox News and conservative pundits’ shows, such as those hosted by Ben Shapiro and Steve Bannon.
In the video, Masters’ wife asserts that America’s heading down a bad path, narrating a smiling Masters playing with his children.
“He’s in it because he loves his country so much, and he loves his state so much. He would make Arizona so proud,” said Catherine.
Masters’ tone shift likely has to do with the increase in Arizona’s independent voters. There are more independent than Democratic voters, and their base comes in a close second to Republican voters.
The secretary of state’s latest voter registration data reported well over 1.4 million Republicans (34 percent), slightly over 1.4 million “other” voters (33 percent, which includes independents, those without a party preference, and those without a major party), and under 1.3 million Democrats (31 percent).
Masters won Tuesday’s primary with slightly over 39 percent of the vote (over 250,800 votes). Candidate Jim Lamon came in second with nearly 29 percent of the vote (under 185,000 votes), and Attorney General Mark Brnovich came in third with over 18 percent of the voter (over 117,300 votes).
Candidate Mick McGuire earned under 9 percent of the vote (under 56,600 votes), and Justin Olson earned over 5 percent (over 32,800 votes).
Altogether, voters who participated in the Republican primary totaled about 642,500. That’s just over 1 percent of all registered voters, and over 22 percent of Republican and “other” (includes independents) combined.
Masters will face off against the incumbent, Senator Mark Kelly (D-AZ), who was uncontested in his election. Kelly pulled just under 495,500 votes.
Corinne Murdock is a reporter for AZ Free News. Follow her latest on Twitter, or email tips to corinne@azfreenews.com.
