By Matthew Holloway |
Arizona’s off-cycle elections draw significantly lower voter turnout than general elections while deciding billions of dollars in public spending, according to a new report from the Goldwater Institute.
The report, titled “Off-Cycle Voting in Arizona: Economic and Democratic Costs?”, was authored by Henry Thomson, an associate professor at Arizona State University. It analyzes municipal and school district elections held outside of regularly scheduled general election cycles.
A 2018 state law sought to require that most Arizona elections, except special and recall contests, be held alongside regularly scheduled general elections. However, the City of Tucson challenged the law, prompting a legal dispute over whether the state can mandate election timing for charter cities. In 2020, the Arizona Supreme Court ruled that charter cities have constitutional authority over local election matters and that state law cannot override those provisions unless the issue is one of statewide concern.
According to the report, voter turnout in recent off-cycle municipal elections in Arizona averaged 26.9%, which the analysis states is more than 44 percentage points lower than turnout in comparable on-cycle elections. The report attributes this difference to the timing of elections held outside traditional November general election dates.
The report further states that the composition of the electorate in off-cycle elections differs from that of general elections. It describes off-cycle voters as, on average, older and wealthier, and more likely to have a direct financial interest in government spending decisions.
Thomson writes that these differences in turnout and voter composition may influence policy outcomes. The report states that policies adopted through off-cycle elections may reflect the preferences of a smaller subset of voters rather than the broader electorate.
The report also highlights the scale of fiscal measures decided through off-cycle elections. In November 2023, $4.36 billion in school district spending measures were placed on ballots in Maricopa County, an amount it compares to the county’s annual budget of approximately $4.35 billion.
Examples cited in a Tuesday press release from the Goldwater Institute included a regional transportation plan approved by voters in Pima County in 2026, authorizing approximately $2.67 billion in spending, with less than one-third of registered voters participating, as well as a 2023 Phoenix bond election with a turnout of approximately 22% that authorized hundreds of millions of dollars in spending.
The report argues that the timing of elections is a policy choice made by local governments and may affect participation levels. It states that holding elections outside of general election cycles can result in lower turnout.
“Off-cycle elections convert community decision-making into a procedural rubber stamp, providing a democratic varnish of approval to policies pushed by special interests that benefit from growing local governments and ballooning municipal budgets,” Thomson wrote in the report. “They allow a small, unrepresentative electorate to decide enormous public spending commitments at the local level and should be reformed.”
The report recommends aligning local elections with higher-turnout general election cycles as a potential reform. It states that such changes could increase participation and broaden the electorate involved in local fiscal decisions that impact taxpayers for decades.
Matthew Holloway is a senior reporter for AZ Free News. Follow him on X for his latest stories, or email tips to Matthew@azfreenews.com.
