by Ethan Faverino | Apr 18, 2026 | Economy, News
By Ethan Faverino |
Small business optimism weakened in March as a sharp drop in reported profit trends and softening expectations for business conditions weighed on the outlook, according to the latest survey from the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB).
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell 3 points to 95.8, slipping below its 52-year historical average of 98 for the first time since April 2025. At the same time, the Uncertainty Index rose 4 points to 92, significantly above its long-term average of 68.
“The 20% Small Business Deduction and other supportive small business tax provisions in the Working Families Tax Cut Act have had many positives for small business owners,” stated NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “However, the dramatic spike in oil prices has spooked consumers and owners alike. Small business owners are having to absorb those higher input costs and pass them along to their customers.”
Key Declines Drive the Drop in Optimism
The decline in the Optimism Index was driven primarily by two key components: the frequency of reports of positive profit trends, which plunged 11 points to a net negative 25%—the largest contributor to the overall drop—and the net percentage of owners expecting better business conditions, which fell 7 points to a net 11%, marking the third consecutive monthly decline and the lowest reading since October 2024.
Other notable movements included:
Employment Index – Fell from 103.5 to 101.6. While still above the 2025 average (101.2) and historical average (100), the 1.9-point decline signals moderation in labor market conditions.
Capital outlays – Only 16% of owners plan capital investments in the next six months, down 2 points and the lowest level since November 2009.
Sales – A net negative 5% reported higher nominal sales in the past three months (down 6 points), ending four months of improvement. Expectations for higher real sales volumes over the next quarter eased to a net 7%.
Inventory – Plans for inventory investment turned more cautious, reaching a net negative 5%, the lowest since May 2024.
Labor Market and Compensation Trends
Hiring activity showed signs of cooling. A seasonally adjusted 32% of owners reported job openings they could not fill (down 1 point), though this remains well above the historical average of 24%. Skilled worker openings stood at 27%, while unskilled openings rose slightly to 12%.
A net 12% of owners plan to create new jobs in the coming three months, unchanged from February and near the long-term average. Compensation pressures eased modestly: a net 33% reported raising compensation; plans to raise compensation in the next three months fell 4 points to a net 18%—the lowest since July 2025. Despite the declines, both actual and planned compensation remain above historical averages.
Pricing, Supply Chains, and Business Health
Actual price increases ticked up, with a net 25% of owners raising average selling prices (up 1 point and well above the historical average). Planned price hikes, however, declined 4 points to a net 24%. Supply chain disruptions affected 62% of owners to some degree (up 3 points), with most reporting only mild or moderate impacts.
When rating the overall health of their businesses, 13% called it “excellent” (up 1 point), 51% “good” (down 4 points), 30% “fair” (up 4 points), and 4% “poor” (down 1 point).
Top Business Problems and Credit Conditions
Taxes remained the single most important problem for 19% of owners (unchanged and still ranked #1), followed by labor quality at 15% (#2), and inflation at 14% (#3).
Credit conditions stayed relatively stable but tight. The net percent expecting easier credit held at negative 5%, while the average interest rate on short-term loans edged down to 7.9%. Only 24% of owners reported borrowing regularly, a historically low level. Just 11% viewed it as a good time to expand (down 4 points and below the historical average).
“Small business owners are certainly keeping a close eye on the price of oil,” added NFIB State Director Chad Heinrich. “As those cost pressures grow and Arizona’s officeholders dawdle on tax conformity, small businesses are doing everything they can to minimize price increases for their consumers and stay competitive. It’s essential that state policymakers give our small businesses certainty and fully conform with the provisions of the Working Families Tax Cut Act.”
Ethan Faverino is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
by Matthew Holloway | Apr 15, 2026 | Economy, News
By Matthew Holloway |
A new report from the Common Sense Institute finds that rising costs for housing, groceries, insurance, and child care continue to strain affordability for Arizona families, even as inflation has cooled from its post-pandemic peak.
According to CSI’s latest affordability rankings, Arizona is now the seventh least affordable state in the nation and ranks 45th overall when comparing household incomes to the cost of essential expenses. The state has fallen 12 spots in affordability since 2019, but remains more affordable than Florida, Oregon, New York, Massachusetts, and California, which ranked 46th through 50th, respectively.
CSI’s analysis found that Arizona households retain about 19.6% of their gross income after paying for taxes and basic expenses such as shelter, groceries, health insurance, car insurance, gasoline, and child care. That amounts to about $1,700 per month left over, compared to the national average of 24.7% ($2,170 per month).
The report found that Arizona households are spending about $19,300 more per year on essential expenses than they did in 2019, exceeding the national average increase of $15,400. CSI estimates that Arizona households have effectively lost 3.8% of their gross income to rising prices since before the pandemic.
Housing costs have continued to be the primary cause of affordability challenges in the state. According to a recent report, shelter and utility costs for Arizona households rose by $9,012 annually between 2019 and 2025, a 59% increase that ranked as the fourth-largest increase in the country. Arizona also experienced some of the nation’s fastest-growing grocery and car insurance costs during the same period.
CSI reported that grocery costs rose by $3,375, child care costs by $3,950, health insurance costs by $1,302, car insurance costs by $1,355, and gasoline costs by $313 between 2019 and 2025.
The report found that child care remains a major expense for working families. In Arizona, one full-time working parent must devote about 38% of their gross income to cover child care costs, slightly below the national average of roughly 40%. Nationally, CSI estimated that the average household spends about 16.9% of gross income on child care for preschool- and school-aged children.
“Inflation reports may show things are cooling, but that doesn’t mean life is getting more affordable for Arizonans,” said Zachary Milne, Senior Economist and Research Analyst for the Common Sense Institute AZ. “Our analysis shows the cost of everyday essentials is still significantly higher than it was before the pandemic, and for many families, incomes haven’t kept pace. That gap is what continues to drive the affordability challenges we’re seeing across Arizona today.”
CSI noted that inflation in the Phoenix area has moderated in recent months, with consumer prices rising 2.2% year over year in December. However, according to CSI’s Arizona inflation update, prices in the Phoenix metro area remain 28.9% higher than they were in December 2019, resulting in an additional $1,441 in average monthly costs for a typical Arizona household.
Arizona households are also carrying greater debt, coupled with declining credit scores and rising delinquency rates, at levels significantly higher than the national average, according to CSI’s April 1 report.
CSI detailed its data sources and methodology on its website.
Matthew Holloway is a senior reporter for AZ Free News. Follow him on X for his latest stories, or email tips to Matthew@azfreenews.com.
by Ethan Faverino | Apr 1, 2026 | Economy, News
By Ethan Faverino |
Arizona House Majority Whip Julie Wiloughby (R-LD13) praised a recent Trump administration decision recognizing the significant impact of internal emissions on Arizona’s ability to meet federal air quality standards.
The ruling grants the Phoenix metropolitan area relief from stricter federal requirements, opening the door for potential long-term reforms to the state’s expensive summer gasoline blend mandated in Maricopa and Pinal Counties.
The decision, issued last week by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), found that the Phoenix-Mesa nonattainment area would have met the 2015 ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) if not for emissions originating outside the United States. This finding, under Section 179B of the Clean Air Act, prevents reclassification to a more severe status. It acknowledges that a major share of emissions affecting Arizona is beyond the state’s control.
For months, Willoughby has collaborated with local and federal officials to pursue reforms addressing Arizona’s higher summer fuel costs. In January, she sent a letter to the EPA initiating discussions on permanent changes to lower costs for families while maintaining compliance with air quality standards.
“The main reason drivers in Maricopa and Pinal counties pay more for gas in the summer is that these areas are forced to use a special boutique blend made only for Arizona,” explained Willoughby. “It costs more to produce, limits supply, and leaves our state more vulnerable to price spikes. The question is whether this requirement is still doing anything meaningful to improve air quality. If it is not, then Arizona families are being forced to pay more for little to no benefit.”
Willoughby noted that industry operations are cleaner and national fuel standards have evolved since Arizona’s blend was last updated. “Industry is cleaner today than it was when Arizona’s blend was last updated, and fuel standards nationwide have changed significantly since then. There is a strong possibility that Arizona can move to a lower-cost fuel option without sacrificing air quality. If the evidence supports that conclusion, we should act immediately.”
To advance the issue, Willoughby introduced a package of five measures aimed at lowering fuel costs, evaluating compliant fuel options, and requiring the state to adopt a lower-cost fuel once federally approved.
“In order to change the blend, Arizona must submit a request to the EPA to revise our State Implementation Plan and show that we can still meet federal air quality standards with the new blend,” added Willoughby. “The modeling used to make that demonstration must take into account the fact that a major share of the emissions affecting our state comes from outside our borders and is beyond Arizona’s control. The Trump Administration’s recent decision recognizing international transport acknowledges this impact and gives Arizona more room to reevaluate whether our current fuel requirements are still justified. With the federal government signaling openness, this may be our best and only opportunity to get this done.”
In February, Willoughby requested that the Maricopa Association of Governments (MAG) model the impacts of switching from Arizona’s current boutique gasoline blend (Reid Vapor Pressure of 7.0 psi) to a more widely available, lower-cost blend with an RVP of 7.4 psi.
Preliminary modeling completed in March showed that the switch would increase the maximum ozone concentration in the Phoenix metropolitan area by between zero and 0.01 parts per billion.
“That is a negligible impact and more than enough reason to move this conversation forward,” continued Willoughby. “Just as important, Governor Hobbs’ administration already has these results. MAG provided the modeling to her Department of Environmental Quality, which means the Governor could begin acting on this now if she wanted to. She does not need to wait. She does not need more excuses. If Governor Hobbs is serious about lowering fuel costs, she should direct her agency to act immediately.”
In a follow-up letter to MAG Director of Environmental Planning, Matt Poppen, Willoughby highlighted the positive results from the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions (CAMx v7.32) and Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ v5.5) analyses. The CAMx results showed no changes in the 2023 design value attainment at any monitoring site, while CMAQ predicted a maximum impact of just 0.01 ppb at three sites.
Willoughby also requested additional modeling for a Federal Reformed Gasoline blend with an RVP of 7.8 psi, used in some other western states, and discussions on next steps for a State Implementation Plan revision.
“The modeling is favorable. The facts are lining up in Arizona’s favor. We should seize this opportunity and make the case for lasting gas affordability now,” concluded Willoughby.
Ethan Faverino is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
by Staff Reporter | Mar 26, 2026 | Economy, News
By Staff Reporter |
Republicans in the Arizona Senate are moving on legislation they believe will reduce gas prices.
A strike everything amendment to HB 2400 proposes to mitigate price spikes at the pump by filing an emergency waiver to increase Maricopa County’s fuel supply during emergencies.
Arizona policymakers anticipate prices to spike with pending supply constraints due to a forecasted California refinery closure in April. Federal environmental regulations require Valley drivers to use a more expensive and limited specialized fuel blend year-round, a requirement that expands to affect residents elsewhere in the state during the summer months.
Should the bill be enacted, the Department of Environmental Quality and the Arizona Department of Agriculture would submit an emergency fuel waiver to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) within 30 days.
State Sen. Shawnna Bolick (R-LD2) introduced the strike everything amendment. Bolick said the state does have recourse, but it’s up to executive leadership to allow for the remedy to occur.
“We see the warning signs. Refineries are shutting down, and if we don’t act now, prices will go up. HB 2400 will make sure Arizona can quickly access additional fuel when shortages hit, instead of waiting and hoping for relief,” said Bolick in a press release.
According to Stanford University’s Woods Institute for the Environment, the California refinery shutdowns were caused by multiple factors: depleting crude oil fields, declining in-state gasoline sales, consolidating oil infrastructure, and increasing availability of imported finished fossil fuel products.
A similar issue occurred in 2023. Gov. Katie Hobbs declined to file an emergency fuel waiver with the Biden administration despite a request from petroleum refiner HF Sinclair.
The company’s senior vice president, Jerry Miller, advised Hobbs in a letter of a critical supply shortage of several counties’ Cleaner Burning Gasoline (CBG), the special gasoline formulations required in certain parts of the state by the EPA under the Clean Air Act (CAA).
These formulation requirements are laid out in Arizona’s State Implementation Plan (SIP). The SIP establishes different CBG requirements depending on the season. CBG is required in Maricopa County and certain parts of Pinal and Yavapai counties year-round (called “Area A”). CBG requirement expands to include more of Pinal County during the summer months of May through September (called “Area C”).
As in 2023, it will mostly be Maricopa County drivers who will feel the brunt of forecasted supply constraints.
Senate lawmakers will also consider HB 2955, which would expand the state’s fuel options by modifying the state’s fuel standards for CBG in order to expand supply options.
Sen. Bolick shared that she and other Republican lawmakers have laid the groundwork with the Trump administration to ensure that the fuel standard updates and emergency fuel waiver would be processed immediately upon filing.
“We are coordinating with the Trump Administration so Arizona is ready to act the moment these bills are signed into law,” said Bolick. “This is about getting ahead of the problem and making sure families aren’t stuck paying the price for decisions made in other states.”
AZ Free News is your #1 source for Arizona news and politics. You can send us news tips using this link.
by AZ Free Enterprise Club | Mar 4, 2026 | Opinion
By the Arizona Free Enterprise Club |
For Maricopa County motorists, high gasoline prices are no longer an occasional inconvenience but a recurring hit to their wallets.
The story is the same every year. Every summer as temperatures rise, prices at the pump jump as well, often by as much as fifty cents per gallon in Maricopa County. Yet these price fluctuations, as frustrating as they have been for drivers, may soon look mild compared to what’s coming.
Arizona’s Historic Fuel Problem Will Only Get Worse In the Future
Arizona’s chronically high gas prices have been driven by two key factors. The first is that Maricopa County is required to use a specialized “clean burning gasoline” (CBG) blend that only a handful of refineries from around the country can produce. Compounding this issue is that Arizona does not have any in-state refining capacity of our own, making us reliant on imported refined fuel from high-cost California.
These complications have made our state vulnerable to price shocks. In 2003, a major pipeline failure limited gasoline shipments into Arizona and caused immediate price spikes and shortages.
In 2022, while gas prices did increase throughout the nation due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Maricopa County motorists were hit with significant price spikes, and consistently paid far above the national average. In 2023 and again in 2024, price volatility in Phoenix surged even when national averages stabilized.
And now this problem is only going to get worse…
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