By Ethan Faverino |
Small business optimism weakened in March as a sharp drop in reported profit trends and softening expectations for business conditions weighed on the outlook, according to the latest survey from the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB).
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell 3 points to 95.8, slipping below its 52-year historical average of 98 for the first time since April 2025. At the same time, the Uncertainty Index rose 4 points to 92, significantly above its long-term average of 68.
“The 20% Small Business Deduction and other supportive small business tax provisions in the Working Families Tax Cut Act have had many positives for small business owners,” stated NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “However, the dramatic spike in oil prices has spooked consumers and owners alike. Small business owners are having to absorb those higher input costs and pass them along to their customers.”
Key Declines Drive the Drop in Optimism
The decline in the Optimism Index was driven primarily by two key components: the frequency of reports of positive profit trends, which plunged 11 points to a net negative 25%—the largest contributor to the overall drop—and the net percentage of owners expecting better business conditions, which fell 7 points to a net 11%, marking the third consecutive monthly decline and the lowest reading since October 2024.
Other notable movements included:
Employment Index – Fell from 103.5 to 101.6. While still above the 2025 average (101.2) and historical average (100), the 1.9-point decline signals moderation in labor market conditions.
Capital outlays – Only 16% of owners plan capital investments in the next six months, down 2 points and the lowest level since November 2009.
Sales – A net negative 5% reported higher nominal sales in the past three months (down 6 points), ending four months of improvement. Expectations for higher real sales volumes over the next quarter eased to a net 7%.
Inventory – Plans for inventory investment turned more cautious, reaching a net negative 5%, the lowest since May 2024.
Labor Market and Compensation Trends
Hiring activity showed signs of cooling. A seasonally adjusted 32% of owners reported job openings they could not fill (down 1 point), though this remains well above the historical average of 24%. Skilled worker openings stood at 27%, while unskilled openings rose slightly to 12%.
A net 12% of owners plan to create new jobs in the coming three months, unchanged from February and near the long-term average. Compensation pressures eased modestly: a net 33% reported raising compensation; plans to raise compensation in the next three months fell 4 points to a net 18%—the lowest since July 2025. Despite the declines, both actual and planned compensation remain above historical averages.
Pricing, Supply Chains, and Business Health
Actual price increases ticked up, with a net 25% of owners raising average selling prices (up 1 point and well above the historical average). Planned price hikes, however, declined 4 points to a net 24%. Supply chain disruptions affected 62% of owners to some degree (up 3 points), with most reporting only mild or moderate impacts.
When rating the overall health of their businesses, 13% called it “excellent” (up 1 point), 51% “good” (down 4 points), 30% “fair” (up 4 points), and 4% “poor” (down 1 point).
Top Business Problems and Credit Conditions
Taxes remained the single most important problem for 19% of owners (unchanged and still ranked #1), followed by labor quality at 15% (#2), and inflation at 14% (#3).
Credit conditions stayed relatively stable but tight. The net percent expecting easier credit held at negative 5%, while the average interest rate on short-term loans edged down to 7.9%. Only 24% of owners reported borrowing regularly, a historically low level. Just 11% viewed it as a good time to expand (down 4 points and below the historical average).
“Small business owners are certainly keeping a close eye on the price of oil,” added NFIB State Director Chad Heinrich. “As those cost pressures grow and Arizona’s officeholders dawdle on tax conformity, small businesses are doing everything they can to minimize price increases for their consumers and stay competitive. It’s essential that state policymakers give our small businesses certainty and fully conform with the provisions of the Working Families Tax Cut Act.”
Ethan Faverino is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
