Guess what! Inflation, growth, jobs: Conventional wisdom from America’s economic punditry was across-the-board wrong. Again.
At the year’s start the punditry predicted that Trump’s tariffs would cause a surge of inflation and would likely trigger recession. Well, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers on Thursday. Reuters’ polling of private economists predicted inflation would accelerate to 3.1% year-over-year, the fastest pace since 2023. The actual BLS figure came in at 2.7%, with core inflation even lower at 2.6%.
But the news gets better. Year-over-year inflation means it includes inflationary pressures from the end of Biden’s presidency. It’s a very lagging figure.
To understand what inflation’s doing now, and to filter out some of the data’s noise, a better gauge is to look at inflation over the last two months, which came in at 1.2% annualized, well below the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.
There is a small caveat to this good news. Due to the Schumer government shutdown, BLS was unable to collect all the usual data for the CPI report, so some items were left out. The economists who predicted accelerating inflation are thus arguing that inflation would, with all the data, have been much higher and thus excusing their bad forecasts.
However, as New York Fed President John Williams points out, the missing data “pushed down the CPI reading, probably by a tenth or so.” OK, so topline inflation was 2.8% while the annualized two-month figure goes to 1.8%, still well below consensus forecast and still below the Fed’s target rate.
What about Trump’s tariffs? To be sure, they pushed some prices up faster than they otherwise would have. But the tariffs only applied to a small fraction of all the goods and services sold in America. So, when it comes to overall inflation, the net effect could never be more than a one-time rounding error.
Further, inflation is fundamentally a monetary phenomenon. These tariff-induced price bumps occurred against a background of the underlying inflationary impulse from money supply interacting with money demand. The Fed has run a moderately restrictive policy for years, so naturally inflation is falling.
Assuming at least one of the Fed’s legion of economists can do this two-month calculation and has the temerity to show it to Chair Powell and the rest of the Fed’s leadership, then further Fed rate cuts should be assured and imminent on the road to neutral.
And what about that predicted recession? After inflation, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) soared 3.8% in the second quarter of this year, while the Atlanta Fed’s “Nowcast” of third quarter GDP is a still-impressive 3.5%.
Some of Reuters’ economists will likely portray this slight slowdown in growth as “scary” and a sign of pending recession. Nonsense. The economy is ripping, with the only recession pending threatening the salaries of those economists making silly forecasts.
Finally, those still desperate to argue economic weakness might turn to the labor market. The economy generated about 166,000 jobs a month during Biden’s last year in office. So far under Trump the economy has generated about 50,000 jobs a month. Sounds scary, but much of that decline occurred because federal employment fell by 27,000 jobs a month.
The even bigger jobs story is that employment by foreign-born workers has fallen by about 100,000 a month under Trump. This is what happens when immigration laws are enforced and the border is secured. Put it all together and private-sector native-born employment is doing very well.
And the cherry on top is that after stagnating for the four years of the Biden presidency, median real wages are now rising at a 1.6% annualized rate. Rising wages and plentiful private-sector jobs, not gimmicks like Obamacare subsidies and rent controls, are how you prosper American workers or, in today’s parlance, address “affordability.”
Just don’t be surprised if you don’t hear that from the legacy media.
J.D. Foster is a contributor to the Daily Caller News Foundation. He is the former chief economist at the Office of Management and Budget and former chief economist and senior vice president at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. He now resides in relative freedom in the hills of Idaho.
U.S. Representative Juan Ciscomani (R-AZ-06) and Tom Suozzi (D-NY) introduced the Shadow Wolves Improvement Act, bipartisan legislation to enhance one of the nation’s most effective and unique border security programs, the Shadow Wolves
The Shadow Wolves are an elite, all Native-American unit of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) tactical agents who specialize in tracking and interdicting drug smuggling and human trafficking across tribal lands along the U.S.-Mexico border.
Operating primarily on the Tohono O’odham Nation in Arizona since the 1970s, the unit’s members use ancestral tracking techniques combined with modern law enforcement training to patrol some of the most remote and challenging terrain on the southern border.
“For decades, the Shadow Wolves have played an essential role in supporting border security and strengthening relationships between DHS and tribal communities,” said Congressman Ciscomani. “Arizona has led the way on this program since the beginning, and this bill helps ensure the Shadow Wolves can continue their mission for years to come.”
A 2024 Government Accountability Office (GAO) report highlighted chronic staffing shortages within the program due to retirements and recruiting challenges under the current “expected service” hiring structure. The Shadow Wolves Improvement Act directly addresses these issues by authorizing ICE to convert Shadow Wolves positions to the “competitive service,” a change recommended by both GAO and ICE leadership.
This reform will open broader recruitment pools, improve retention through enhanced benefits and promotion opportunities, and enable expansion of the program to additional border-adjacent tribal nations experiencing high levels of illicit cross-border activity.
The legislation has gotten strong support from tribal leaders and Native American law enforcement organizations:
Jaime Azure, Chairman of the Turtle Mountain Band of Chippewa Indians, said, “Public Safety, particularly drug and human trafficking, continues to plague Indian Country. These issues are uniquely difficult for tribal communities, like the Turtle Mountain Band of Chippewa Indians, who are located along the U.S. northern border. The Shadow Wolves Improvement Act is an additional tool within the law enforcement toolbox that will help. The Tribe appreciates U.S. Representatives Juan Ciscomani and Tom Suozzi for introducing this important legislation and urges its swift passage in the House of Representatives.”
Gary Edwards, Chief Executive Officer of the National Native American Law Enforcement Association, said, “The National Native American Law Enforcement Association (NNALEA) strongly supports the Shadow Wolves Improvement Act. Native Americans play a key role in protecting the U.S. borders and National Security. This bill is a positive step forward in giving Indian Country Law Enforcement the recognition and support they deserve.”
Verlon Jose, Chairman of the Tohono O’odham Nation, said, “The Shadow Wolves, an all-Native American tracking and investigative unit, have decades of experience protecting the Tohono O’odham Nation and our border. Their unique skill set and deep knowledge of the land are invaluable to law enforcement efforts to interdict drugs and human smuggling on our reservation. The Tohono O’odham Nation strongly supports the Shadow Wolves Improvement Act, which will improve retention and recruitment of Shadow Wolves agents, and support the Nation’s vital role in protecting our land.”
A companion bill in the Senate (S.572), led by Senator Ruben Gallego (D-AZ), has already advanced through the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee with strong bipartisan backing.
“Working in a bipartisan way, we’re giving ICE the tools it needs to hire and retain these highly specialized agents, expand the program to additional tribal lands, and bolster efforts to combat drug trafficking along our southern border. This is common-sense legislation that strengthens security and honors the history and contributions of the Shadow Wolves,” concluded Ciscomani.
Ethan Faverino is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
House Republicans, led by Arizona Congressman Abe Hamadeh (R-AZ-08), unveiled legislation Friday proposing the creation of a permanent national memorial in Washington, D.C., honoring Americans killed by individuals unlawfully present in the United States.
The proposal would establish a permanent memorial dedicated to victims of crimes committed by illegal immigrants, a category House Republicans say has been overlooked in national remembrance efforts.
At a Friday press event, Hamadeh said the bill “authorizes a permanent national memorial in Washington, D.C., honoring U.S. citizens and lawful residents whose lives are taken by individuals unlawfully present in the United States.” He added, “But in many ways, it also shames the politicians who allowed this situation to happen.”
🇺🇸LIVE LOOK🇺🇸
Congressman Hamadeh is joined by Angel parents, congressional colleagues, and representatives from The American Border Story for a press conference announcing his new bill memorializing victims of the border crisis. pic.twitter.com/ut8ZiyoLEc
— Office of Congressman Abe Hamadeh (@RepAbeHamadeh) December 12, 2025
In a later post to X, he wrote in part, “Humbled and grateful to lead this effort to establish a memorial in honor of the victims of Biden’s border crisis. Thank you to the incredible Angel Parents for sharing their experiences, my congressional colleagues for joining this effort, and the @TABSReport American Border Story for fighting alongside us.”
Humbled and grateful to lead this effort to establish a memorial in honor of the victims of Biden’s border crisis.
Thank you to the incredible Angel Parents for sharing their experiences, my congressional colleagues for joining this effort, and the @TABSReport American Border… pic.twitter.com/TdGAcXdTB4
According to Fox News, the legislation is being led by Republican lawmakers who say the memorial would serve as both a place of remembrance and a public acknowledgment of the consequences of federal immigration policy failures. The proposal calls for a federally designated site that would memorialize victims while remaining nonpartisan in its presentation.
Newsmax reported that eight co-sponsors, all Republicans, joined Hamadeh, that The American Border Story (TABS) would raise funds for the monument from private sources, and that Aagel families would select a design and an architect.
Congressman Andy Biggs (R-AZ-05) attended the event alongside Hamadeh and highlighted the disparity between the Biden and Trump administrations’ responses to enforcing immigration law. “They ended the Remain in Mexico policy, restarted catch and release,” he told reporters.
TABS Executive Director Nicole Kiprilov told Fox News, “I’d like to thank President Trump for leading an historic administration that has put these victims and families at the center of our immigration agenda.”
“Secretary Kristi Noem, border czar Tom Homan and the entirety of the Trump administration has been working night and day tirelessly to ensure that our border is secure and that these tragedies that the Biden administration allowed to happen will never happen again,” she added.
The proposal comes amid ongoing debates in Congress over border security, immigration enforcement, and the humanitarian and public safety impacts of illegal immigration. Republicans have repeatedly cited crime victimization as part of the broader argument for stronger border controls and immigration reforms.
Democrats have previously criticized similar proposals, arguing that crime rates among immigrants do not justify singling out a specific category of offenders. The Fox News report notes that the legislation is expected to face opposition as it moves through the legislative process.
The Department of Homeland Security (DHS), through U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP), has achieved unprecedented border security milestones, with illegal border crossings reaching the lowest levels ever recorded at the start of a fiscal year.
Preliminary data for October and November 2025 show a continued historic decline in apprehensions and encounters, reflecting the effectiveness of President Trump’s policies and leadership.
Since President Trump took office on January 20, 2025, total enforcement encounters along the southwest border through the end of November stand at 117,105—37% below the monthly average of 185,625 recorded during the Biden administration.
U.S. Border Patrol apprehensions have averaged under 10,000 per month, described by DHS as “a level of deterrence unmatched in modern border history”.
Daily apprehensions along the southwest border now average just 245—fewer than 11 per hour—and a stunning 95% reduction from the Biden-era daily average of 5,110 (February 2021-December 2024). For comparison, December 2023 saw 336 illegal crossers apprehended every hour during the height of the prior administration’s border crisis—more than today’s entire daily total.
In October 2025, nationwide Border Patrol encounters and apprehensions totaled 30,573, distinctively down from 142,742 in October 2024, 309,605 in October 2023, and 278,317 in October 2022.
Preliminary data for November 2025 show 30,367 encounters, slightly lower than October’s record low. Combined, October and November recorded just 60,940 encounters—the lowest two-month start to any fiscal year on record and 28% below the previous low of 84,293 set in FY2012.
“Once again, we have a record low number of encounters at the border and the 7th straight month of zero releases. Month after month, we are delivering results that were once thought impossible: the most secure border in history and unmatched enforcement successes,” said Secretary Kristi Noem. “Thanks to President Trump’s leadership and the dedication of DHS law enforcement, America’s borders are safer than ever before.”
Every individual apprehended is processed for removal in accordance with the law, reversing Biden-era policies that pulled agents from the field to facilitate mass releases, leaving hundreds of miles of border unpatrolled for extended periods.
Ethan Faverino is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
The Arizona Department of Homeland Security (AZDHS) has joined a lawsuit brought by 12 states that challenges the terms set by the Trump administration and FEMA for two federal grants that impact the prevention and response to terrorist attacks, securing the southern border, and bolstering emergency management capabilities.
The lawsuit, filed on November 4th was touted by Democrat Attorney General Kris Mayes as “the 30th lawsuit the Attorney General of Arizona has joined to stop the Trump administration’s federal overreach.” It argues that the grant terms in the Emergency Management Performance Grant (EMPG) and Homeland Security Grant Program (HSPG) depart from past practices, essentially making it more difficult for state, local, and Tribal partners to obtain and use the federal grant funds.
Mayes complained at the time, “The Trump administration is trying to claw back money we use to protect the border, including for protective equipment and vehicles for law enforcement on the ground, and to support emergency preparedness and terrorism response preparation. They are also trying to withhold 50% of the funds we use to respond to emergencies in Arizona.”
“Local, state, and Tribal public safety agencies rely on funding from the Homeland Security Grant Program to effectively protect Arizonans from vulnerabilities bad actors may wish to exploit,” AZDHS Director, Dr. Kim O’Connor said in a statement. “This funding is absolutely essential in keeping our citizens and communities safe.”
The lawsuit points to two of the imposed terms as “at issue”:
“A hold on EMPG funding until the State provides FEMA with ‘a certification of the recipient state’s population as of September 30, 2025,’ including an explanation of ‘the methodology it used to determine its population and certify that its reported population does not include individuals that have been removed from the State pursuant to the immigration laws of the United States.’”
“A reduction of the period of performance, i.e., the period in which grant recipients must complete all activities to be reimbursed, from three years to one year.”
The state attorney’s general argue that the accurate determination of a state’s population of lawful inhabitants “exceeds” the federal government’s “statutory authority, as no statute permits Defendants to impose such a hold,” “is contrary to law because 13 U.S.C. § 183 requires federal agencies to use U.S. Census Bureau data to allocate federal grant funding,” and “is arbitrary and capricious in violation of the Administrative Procedure Act (“APA”) because it is unexplained, does not reflect reasoned decision making, and ignores the States’ reliance interests on receipt of the EMPG funds unimpeded.” Finally, they argue that the action was issued without following procedural requirements.
Reasoning for these requirements is, however, provided in the FY 2025 DHS Standard Terms and Conditions, which states “compliance with this term is material to the Government’s decision to make or continue with this award and that the Department of Homeland Security may terminate this grant, or take any other allowable enforcement action.”
Mayes also appears aware of another facet of the administration’s reasoning, as stated in her November 4th statement: “the Trump administration has attempted to reduce FEMA’s role and shift the burden of emergency management to the States.”
President Trump noted during a June announcement in the Oval Office that his administration “want(s) to wean off of FEMA and we want to bring it down to the state level.” He added that states should be equipped to handle disasters directly, noting that he wants to “give out less money,” and to “give it out directly,” according to the Associated Press. He further placed the onus for disaster response onto state governors saying, “The governor should be able to handle it and frankly if they can’t handle the aftermath, then maybe they shouldn’t be governor.”
