A new poll shows a possible shift in power that could unseat Democrat Gov. Katie Hobbs and potentially see Republicans regain control of the Arizona Governor’s office.
The poll was conducted by Kreate Strategies and commissioned by American Encore. It found that likely voters in the Arizona gubernatorial race prefer Congressman Andy Biggs over Gov. Hobbs in a head-to-head matchup by one point. Karrin Taylor Robson trails the Democrat incumbent in a head-to-head matchup by 2 points.
Notably, Biggs significantly closes the gap among No Party Preference (NPP) voters with only 13% undecided, while the matchup between Robson and Hobbs leaves a wide swath of undecided voters at 22%.
Congressman Biggs was also viewed more favorably than Hobbs and Robson with 42% finding him favorable versus Hobbs with 41% and Robson with 28%. The poll also indicated that Robson may be suffering from a lack of name recognition compared to her more prominent opponents.
In a statement to AZ Free News, American Encore President Sean Noble said, “This poll shows that Congressman Andy Biggs is the best positioned to recapture the Governor’s office for Republicans in 2026. We already know that it will be a challenging cycle with it being a mid-term for President Trump, so it is critical for Republican primary voters to nominate the candidate who has the best chance to beat Hobbs and be ready to go on day one. Andy Biggs is that candidate.”
When polled on whether Arizona is on the right or wrong track, the likely voters delivered a stern rebuke to Hobbs, which Noble said highlighted her vulnerability in the upcoming election.
Above all, the race for Governor in 2026 is shaping up to be a hotly contested election, with Biggs showing a massive early advantage in the primary over Robson, and Hobbs sitting in a precarious position.
Full poll available here. Crosstabs available here.
Arizona Congressman Andy Biggs announced on Saturday to the Arizona Republican Party’s 2025 Statutory Meeting that, following his “Statement of Interest” to run against Democrat incumbent Governor Katie Hobbs, he is formally running for Governor of Arizona.
Biggs addressed the body, which re-elected AZGOP Chairwoman Gina Swoboda, and made the announcement. Footage shared to X by Activist Nico Delgado captured the moment when Biggs told meeting attendees, “I am jumping in formally to the race for governor in 2026. Thank you.”
BREAKING: Congressman Andy Biggs officially announces that he is running for Governor of Arizona pic.twitter.com/veM2R9n1Zy
“I am jumping in formally,” he said. “It is now time to Make Arizona Great Again,” according to AZ Capitol Times. The outlet noted that Biggs first asked the party leaders if he should get a haircut before asking if they would support his bid for the 9th Floor.
In a follow up post to X later in the day, Biggs wrote, “It’s time to Make Arizona Great Again! I am excited to be in the race for Governor and look forward to serving all Arizonans! Sign my petition at http://biggsforarizona.com!”
It’s time to Make Arizona Great Again! I am excited to be in the race for Governor and look forward to serving all Arizonans!
In an exclusive AZ Free News poll conducted by Data Orbital, Biggs is dominating early polling with 31.7%, a commanding 19.3 point lead over Karrin Taylor Robson. State Treasurer Kimberly Yee trailed with 7.4%
A new poll shows @repandybiggs with a big lead over other potential GOP opponents in the 2026 race for AZ governor. The results saw Biggs take an early polling lead with 31.7%, Taylor Robson who had 12.4% support, & Yee trailed with 7.4% support.https://t.co/jlR5VXRdlU
A subsequent poll released by NicoPAC covered 512 Registered Voters in Arizona “weighed for race, age and gender following a mix of voter registration data, past election data from the Arizona Secretary of State’s office, and the ACS.” It saw Biggs take 58.5% with Taylor Robson dropping behind Yee at 8.8%, and the Arizona Treasurer climbing to double digits with 10.8%.
Biggs’ announcement was followed by Turning Point USA Founder Charlie Kirk and was later supported by former his former congressional colleague Matt Gaetz.
In an interview with Steve Bannon’s War Room on Rumble prior to the formal announcement, Congressman Eli Crane also offered his tacit endorsement of Biggs telling Bannon, “I think Andy is the most conservative and probably the strongest member of the U.S. House. He was also President of the Senate in Arizona. He knows Arizona. He knows how the system works better than anybody. I don’t think anybody would do a better job. You know, he has my full support, and I know he has the support of the War Room Posse… I hope he pulls the trigger and goes all the way through with it.”
WATCH:
Former Arizona State Representative Austin Smith also shared his support in a lengthy post to X, writing in part that Arizonans “won’t have a revolving door of contract lobbyists on the 9th Floor deciding what legislation is signed and needs to be vetoed.”
Why @andybiggs4az is the right choice for Republicans in Arizona for 2026:
– effective, reliable and bonafide conservative vote in Congress.
– had the courage to vacate the chair during a do-nothing speakership.
A new poll shows Rep. Andy Biggs (R-AZ-05) with a big lead over other potential GOP opponents in the 2026 race for Arizona governor.
Biggs announced that he filed a letter of interest to run for governor earlier this week.
The poll, conducted by Data Orbital and sponsored by AZ Free News, was taken between Jan. 18-20. It asked 500 Likely Republican Primary Election voters to choose between likely AZ GOP candidates for governor: Biggs, Arizona Treasurer Kimberly Yee, and Karrin Taylor Robson.
The results saw Biggs take an early polling lead with 31.7%, a definitive 19.3% advantage over Taylor Robson (who had 12.4% support). Yee trailed in single digits with 7.4% support. The poll had a 4.47% margin for error.
In a statement to AZ Free News, Data Orbital President George Khalaf said, “Congressman Andy Biggs has a commanding lead over potential opponents Karrin Taylor Robson and Treasurer Kimberly Yee, bolstered by his extensive history of earned media and established public leadership. His support is particularly robust among self-identified strong conservatives, capturing 45% of this key demographic.”
“These voters, who are historically the most reliable participants in primary elections, position Congressman Biggs with a significant early advantage should he choose to formally jump into the race,“ concluded Khalaf.
Conversely, in the demographic of younger voters aged 18-34, Kimberly Yee enjoyed the most support. But among independent voters, arguably the most decisive factor in the 2024 presidential election win for Donald Trump, Biggs captured 23.1% support followed by Taylor Robson at 11.7%.
The poll also showed that 45% of voters remain undecided and would still be up for grabs, demonstrating the possibility of a wide open race.
Full poll available here. Crosstabs available here.
The 2026 gubernatorial race may be a showdown between a veteran lawmaker known for challenging the D.C. status quo and the Biden administration, and the state’s first Democratic leader in over a decade, Governor Katie Hobbs.
Biggs, a longtime member and former chair of the House Freedom Caucus, has made his mark in Congress as a fiscally conservative hardliner. This was made especially clear during the pandemic, when other Republicans unified with Democrats time and again on increasing spending to offset emergency government mandates which crippled the economy.
Biggs was just one of the only two representatives to vote against the $8 billion for COVID-19 pandemic aid in early March of 2020. The congressman remarked in a public statement at the time that President Donald Trump had requested a fraction of that “bloated” amount ($2 billion) to fund a federal response to the outbreak.
Biggs’ assessment of the political climate at the time — issued exactly a week before Trump declared a national emergency for the COVID-19 pandemic — ultimately proved a wise warning unheeded:
“Throwing money at a potentially serious issue does not alleviate the American people’s concerns. Nor does politicizing the issue to score points for future elections,” said Biggs. “Congressional Republicans and Democrats should join the White House to calmly, wisely, and pro-actively communicate a unified response to their constituents. We must rise to the occasion and do what is best for this situation – as well as for future generations.”
Biggs was also one of only a few dozen who voted against the $15 billion Families First Coronavirus Response Act passed days later.
In all, the federal government spent $4.6 trillion on COVID-19.
Biggs would continue to oppose efforts to mitigate unchecked spending. In 2023, Biggs fought against Congress’ plan to raise the debt ceiling.
Biggs’ other key votes included his opposition to the National Defense Authorization Act of 2022, in large part on the basis of since-removed provisions requiring women to register for the draft.
The congressman has consistently supported legislation to close and prioritize the U.S. border over aid to foreign countries’ military efforts. Consistent with his dedication to securing American interests first, Biggs has consistently voted against the billions in funding afforded to Ukraine under the Biden administration.
In 2021, that first year of the border crisis, Biggs sponsored a resolution to impeach then-Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas. In subsequent years, Biggs signed onto several efforts to impeach former President Joe Biden as well as former Attorney General Merrick Garland.
During his eight years in Congress, Biggs has sponsored over 900 bills and cosponsored nearly 1,300 bills.
Only one of Biggs’ bills has passed Congress, made it to the president’s desk, and became law: HR 4983, designating the Department of Veterans Affairs community-based outpatient clinic in Gilbert as the Staff Sergeant Alexander W. Conrad Veterans Affairs Health Clinic.
35 of Biggs’ cosponsored bills made it to the president’s desk. Three were vetoed, and 32 became law.
This session, Biggs has introduced over 80 proposed bills on a wide scope of red-meat Republican issues to strengthen and enforce immigration laws, modify individual health coverage requirements, restrict executive national emergency authority, prohibit vaccine and mask mandates, roll back foreign intelligence surveillance, require greater performance measures from various agencies, tie congressional salaries to budgeting agreements, pull back on various agencies’ spending or authority, abolish certain agencies, expand veteran care options, undo spying on Americans, simplify congressional bills, eliminate DEI funding in federal government, expand oil and gas production, ban abortion, and establish school choice, to name a few.
Biggs currently sits on the Committee on Oversight and Government Reform and Committee on the Judiciary.
Other declared Republicans who filed statements of interest: Christopher Ames, Scott Neely, and George Nicholson. One declared Libertarian, Barry Hess, filed a statement of interest.
AZ Free News is your #1 source for Arizona news and politics. You can send us news tips using this link.
On Wednesday, Kari Lake declared herself victorious in the Republican primary election for governor. On Thursday, the rest of the state followed.
Lake has nearly 19,800 more votes than her main challenger, Karrin Taylor Robson, as of Thursday night. She was one of several candidates endorsed by former President Donald Trump.
Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey and former Vice President Mike Pence had endorsed Taylor Robson, who held a commanding six point lead when the first results were announced around 8 p.m. Election Day. However, that margin continued to shrink as updated results were announced throughout the late evening hours.
With nearly 200,000 ballots across the state still needing to be tabulated as of Wednesday morning, election observers predicted Lake would likely receive the majority of the still-to-be-counted votes. They pointed to the Lake campaign’s well-executed “get out the vote” promotion for election day.
Those predictions held true throughout Wednesday as additional results were announced. Lake quickly pushed ahead of Taylor Robson and held a small lead all day.
Then on Thursday, Lake’s margin of victory continued to expand as the bulk of the previously unreported votes were announced. Shortly after 7 p.m., the Associated Press declared Lake the winner. Her margin of victory is holding at just less than three percent.
.@KariLake has officially taken every single county in Arizona.
Lake was brutally critical of Taylor Robson during the primary but hopes her main challenger “will come over” to support Lake’s campaign against the Democratic nominee, current Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs.
“We don’t maybe agree on every single thing. but I think we agree on the most important issues of the day,” Lake said of Taylor Robson. “And I believe that Karrin will come in because I know for a fact Karrin loves this state.”
The Republican Governors Association (RGA) released a statement late Thursday congratulating Lake on her victory. Ducey, who is co-chairman of the RGA, was not quoted in the statement. Instead, the comments came from RGA Vice-Chair Kim Reynolds, the governor of Iowa.
“From tackling Biden’s border crisis, to standing up for law enforcement, or keeping Arizona’s economy growing, Kari is ready to fight for Arizona,” according to Reynolds. “In contrast, Katie Hobbs is nothing more than a radical far-left politician whose open borders, anti-law enforcement views are completely out of step with mainstream Arizona.”
Congrats to @KariLake who has inspired an entirely new generation of Republicans to show up and vote in Arizona. The @AZGOP is lucky to have one of the most inspiring and exciting candidates in America this cycle and I could not be more happy to get out and work for her. pic.twitter.com/XBJqfuppzV
Lake and Taylor Robson led a field of five Republicans seeking to take on Hobbs. One of those candidates was former Congressman Matt Salmon, who withdrew from the race in late June, past the deadline for having his name removed from the ballot.
Salmon received more than 27,700 primary votes despite throwing his support to Taylor Robson. Nearly 86 percent of those voters would have had to follow Salmon over to the Taylor Robson camp in order hold off Lake.
The other Republican candidates were Scott David Neely, who received almost 23,000 votes, and Paola “Z” Tulliani-Zen, who received nearly 15,500 votes.
