by Matthew Holloway | Jun 21, 2025 | News
By Matthew Holloway |
Arizona Republican Congressman Andy Biggs continues to enjoy a comfortable advantage in the upcoming primary contest for the 2026 Gubernatorial Election with what pollster NextGenP described as a “massive lead.” The poll, conducted over June 17-18 of 1,380 likely Republican Primary voters, placed Biggs at a commanding 48.6% over fellow Republican Karrin Taylor-Robson who polled at 26%, barely edging out “Other” and “Undecided” with a combined 25.5%.
The poll has a margin of error of ± 2.6% at the 95% confidence level.
In net favorability polling, the survey was even more decisive with Biggs maintaining a 48% approval rating while Robson held onto just 21%, a difference 27 points. Total approval for Biggs sat at 66%, while total approval for Robson polled at 49%.
“With more than a year until Election Day, Andy Biggs continues to lead with a formidable 22.6-point lead with nearly half the electorate already in his corner. His +48% net favorability and 95% total name ID underscores his strong position, especially compared to Robson’s +21% net favorability,” NextgenP Managing Partner Gregg Pekau said. “But with nearly 18% of voters still undecided and 7.7% favoring other candidates, the field remains fluid-and there’s plenty of time for dynamics to shift.”
Partner at NextgenP Luke Mosiman emphasized the importance of the poll’s sample size saying, “With a sample size of 1,380 likely Republican primary voters, this poll carries real statistical weight. In a landscape often shaped by smaller, less reliable snapshots, these numbers give a much more grounded view of the race—showing Andy Biggs with a 22.6-point lead and nearly half the electorate behind him. That kind of margin, backed by solid data, can’t be easily dismissed.”
Another recent poll from American Commitment at the end of May also showed Biggs with a commanding lead with 57% support versus just 25% support for Robson.
Matthew Holloway is a senior reporter for AZ Free News. Follow him on X for his latest stories, or email tips to Matthew@azfreenews.com.
by Matthew Holloway | Jun 7, 2025 | News
By Matthew Holloway |
In the wake of what Turning Point PAC has declared “the largest launch event in Arizona gubernatorial primary history,” the political action committee has announced a massive initial media buy supporting Andy Biggs in his primary challenge against fellow-Republican Karrin Taylor Robson.
The upcoming media-buy is set to total over $500,000 without accounting for the Saturday “Biggs for Governor” Rally hosted by Turning Point Action and Turning Point PAC, which itself amounted to “an additional $780,000 in earned media value (EMV),” according to a press release.
Per the PAC, the $500k media buy will include “impactful ad placements that go live on strategic cable, over-the-top, radio and direct-to-voter placements most watched and listened to by local Arizonans.”
The $780k earned media value of the launch event includes clips, speeches, and promotional materials which were widely shared online during the weekend and reportedly generated 52.1 million impressions on social media according to Turning Point PAC.
“Taken as a whole with Turning Point PAC’s $500,000 media buy announcement, the organization’s independent expenditures and organizing to support Biggs’s primary launch already amounts to over $1,400,000,” the committee said in a statement.
“To see a room packed with thousands of Biggs supporters this far out from the primary was truly historic, and it’s proof of the grassroots energy that is already gathering behind his campaign. There isn’t a world in which voters will not be aware of Andy Biggs being on the ballot, and the more who find out, the more his double-digit lead over all other competitors will grow,” said Charlie Kirk, founder and president of Turning Point USA & Turning Point Action. “Andy Biggs is ready to bring a President Trump and Ron DeSantis level of leadership and competency to governing Arizona, and Turning Point is proud to get behind his campaign.”
Tyler Bowyer, COO of Turning Point Action and Turning Point PAC added, “Andy Biggs was the best Senate President Arizona has had in decades and he has been President Trump’s most reliable friend in Congress. He is Trump-endorsed, Charlie Kirk endorsed, and Turning Point Action endorsed. His campaign momentum is already building at an incredible clip and we’ve barely just begun. The media buy combined with Biggs’s impressive earned media exposure shows how enthusiastic the grassroots is to make Andy Biggs the next governor of Arizona.”
The media spending blitz comes alongside more good news for Biggs. A recent poll from American Commitment shows Biggs with a commanding lead over Taylor Robson in the 2026 Republican primary election for governor. Conducted by Kreate Strategies, the poll shows Biggs (57% support) leads Taylor Robson (25% support) by 32 points.
Matthew Holloway is a senior reporter for AZ Free News. Follow him on X for his latest stories, or email tips to Matthew@azfreenews.com.
by Staff Reporter | May 9, 2025 | News
By Staff Reporter |
Gubernatorial candidate Karrin Taylor Robson’s campaign just lost three key allies from President Donald Trump’s circle.
The three to depart Robson’s campaign according to Axios sources were Chris LaCivita, Tony Fabrizio, and Chris Grant.
LaCivita and Fabrizio were advisors to Robson’s campaign for the 2026 election; both men were considered key “architects” for Trump’s comeback campaign.
Prior to joining Robson’s campaign, LaCivita was co-campaign manager for President Donald Trump’s successful election bid last year. LaCivita is also employed by former Democratic Party of Albania leader and former prime minister Sali Berisha to advise on their country’s parliamentary election. LaCivita made a name for himself in the political world for crafting the Swift Boats Veterans for Truth which lended to the defeat of 2004 presidential candidate John Kerry.
Fabrizio served as the pollster for Trump’s 2016 and 2024 presidential campaigns. In the final weeks leading up to the 2016 election, Fabrizio wrote an internal memo encouraging a greater campaign presence in blue-leaning states — a move that would assist Trump in securing both states.
Grant presided over the Trump-aligned super PAC, MAGA Inc., and works for the political consulting firm Big Dog Strategies. Fabrizio, along with Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, were part of the PAC prior to joining Trump’s 2024 campaign.
Trump endorsed Robson in the days leading up to Christmas while speaking at Turning Point USA’s Americafest in Phoenix. Then, last month, Trump dropped a dual endorsement for Congressman Andy Biggs.
The dual endorsement marked the fifth for the president, and a second in a major Arizona race. In last year’s primary for the eighth congressional district, Trump endorsed both Blake Masters and Abe Hamadeh.
In his endorsement announcement for Biggs, Trump explained he endorsed Robson because she had no other competitors running against her for the Republican primary.
“I like Karrin Taylor Robson of Arizona a lot, and when she asked me to Endorse her, with nobody else running, I Endorsed her, and was happy to do so,” said Trump. “When Andy Biggs decided to run for Governor, quite unexpectedly, I had a problem — Two fantastic candidates, two terrific people, two wonderful champions, and it is therefore my Great Honor TO GIVE MY COMPLETE AND TOTAL ENDORSEMENT TO BOTH. Either one will never let you down. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!”
Sources told Axios that advisors departed in part because Robson opted to not listen to them on running campaign ads featuring Trump’s endorsement immediately. Per the advisors, Robson ran an ad featuring the president’s endorsement nearly a week after Biggs received the second endorsement.
“She won’t listen to anyone else, so she can run her own campaign now,” one source reportedly told Axios.
The departure of the three key Trump affiliates follows another considerable blow to Robson’s campaign. Last week, Trump issued an executive order to end a policy supported by Robson: in-state college tuition for certain migrants.
Robson’s campaign didn’t comment on the departures of LaCivita, Fabrizio, or Grant.
Recent polling shows Biggs with a major lead over both Robson and incumbent Governor Katie Hobbs.
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by Matthew Holloway | Apr 22, 2025 | News
By Matthew Holloway |
In what’s has become almost standard practice for President Donald Trump, he issued a post to Truth Social on Monday, effectively splitting his endorsement in the upcoming 2026 gubernatorial election between leading Republican contenders Congressman Andy Biggs and Karrin Taylor Robson.
This announcement to Truth Social makes for Trump’s fifth documented split endorsement, and his second in Arizona. In the 2024 Congressional Election for District 8, the President famously endorsed both Blake Masters and Abe Hamadeh who would go on to win the seat.
In the post to Truth, President Trump wrote, “I like Karrin Taylor Robson of Arizona a lot, and when she asked me to Endorse her, with nobody else running, I Endorsed her, and was happy to do so.”
Trump explained that his calculus changed when Congressman Andy Biggs tossed his hat into the ring “unexpectedly,” saying, “When Andy Biggs decided to run for Governor, quite unexpectedly, I had a problem — Two fantastic candidates, two terrific people, two wonderful champions, and it is therefore my Great Honor TO GIVE MY COMPLETE AND TOTAL ENDORSEMENT TO BOTH. Either one will never let you down. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!”
The situation clearly hearkens back to the 2024 GOP Primary race for Congressional District 8 which saw Trump weigh in on a contentious six-way contest. He first endorsed Hamadeh and then endorsed Masters just days prior to the July 30th Primary. His message at the time was even similar:
“We have a very important Republican Primary Election on Tuesday for Arizona’s 8th Congressional District, with two spectacular America First Candidates. Blake Masters is a very successful businessman, and an incredibly strong supporter of our Movement to Make America Great Again – He is smart and tough! Likewise, Abe Hamadeh, a Veteran, former prosecutor, and fearless fighter for Election Integrity, has been with me all the way! In Congress, we need a true Warrior who will work tirelessly with us to Grow our Economy, Stop Inflation, Secure our Border, End Migrant Crime, Support our Great Military/Vets, and Protect our always under siege Second Amendment – They will both be spectacular, and I’m pleased to announce that both Blake Masters and Abe Hamadeh have my Complete and Total Endorsement to be the next Congressman of Arizona’s 8th Congressional District — THEY WILL NOT LET YOU DOWN!
Responding to the President’s endorsement, Congressman Biggs took to X to thank him, writing, “Thank you, @realDonaldTrump! It’s been an honor to support you and fight for your agenda since 2016. I look forward to fighting along side you as Governor of Arizona, the greatest state in the nation!”
Robson responded in a post as well stating, “THANK YOU, MR. PRESIDENT! Today, @realDonaldTrump reaffirmed what he told me in December when he urged me to run on stage: That he supports me & has fully endorsed my Arizona First campaign. I cannot wait to be on the 9th floor as a partner to his America First agenda. Onward!”
Trump also endorsed both Tiffany Smiley and Jerrod Sessler in Washington’s 4th Congressional District in 2024 in which Sessler took the primary and lost in the General Election. As reported by Politico, he also appeared to endorse both Eric Schmitt and Eric Greitens in the 2022 Missouri Senate Primary. He was also interpreted as endorsing both Josh Mandel and now-Vice President J.D. Vance in the Ohio Senate race the same year, which Vance went on to win.
Matthew Holloway is a senior reporter for AZ Free News. Follow him on X for his latest stories, or email tips to Matthew@azfreenews.com.
by Matthew Holloway | Apr 8, 2025 | News
By Matthew Holloway |
A set of brand new polls from Kreate Strategies, released on last week, shows that Arizona Republicans favor Congressman Andy Biggs (R-AZ-05) in the upcoming 2026 Gubernatorial Primary Election by approximately a 5-to-1 margin. In a potential General Election matchup, Biggs maintains a two-point advantage over incumbent Democrat Governor Katie Hobbs. Previous polling showed Biggs with a one-point advantage.
The polls, shared by Sean Noble, President of American Encore, queried 842 GOP likely voters for the Primary Election and 1,070 likely voters (39% Republican, 32% Democrat, 30% No Party Preference) for the General Election. It has a margin of error of +/- 3.1%.
In a statement to AZ Free News, Noble wrote, “This poll is yet another indicator that Congressman Andy Biggs is the clear choice for Republicans to be their nominee against the failed policies of Governor Hobbs. It also shows that Biggs gives Republicans the best chance to defeat Governor Hobbs in November 2026.”
The polling revealed that Biggs holds a significant 54-point lead over fellow Republican contender Karrin Taylor Robson, 67% to 13%. He maintains a two-point lead over Hobbs 48% to 46% with 6% undecided. Conversely in the General Election polling Robson trails Hobbs 41% to 42% with 17% undecided.
Regarding favorability, the numbers around Biggs and Hobbs appear to have solidified along partisan lines with Hobbs showing 44% overall favorability and a 49% unfavorable view while Biggs holds a 49% favorability with only 33% of likely voters holding an unfavorable view. Robson’s favorability remains wide open but trending negative with 29% favorability, 44% unfavorable view, and 27% undecided.
Among Republicans specifically in the Primary race, Biggs holds an 86% favorability versus Robson who holds a 48% favorability.
In previous polling reported by AZ Free News in January and February, Congressman Biggs has consistently led the field in polls from Data Orbital, Kreate Strategies, and NicoPAC. He has seen the most movement in closing the gap with independent voters and increasing overall favorability.
Among Arizona voters top concerns are inflation, jobs, and costs with 27%, followed by immigration and border patrol with 21%, followed by quality of education and water policy with 9% and 8%, respectively. Among Republicans, immigration remains the top concern with 43% and 18% concerned with inflation, jobs, and cost of living.
Matthew Holloway is a senior reporter for AZ Free News. Follow him on X for his latest stories, or email tips to Matthew@azfreenews.com.
