by Terri Jo Neff | May 26, 2021 | News
By Terri Jo Neff |
In its longest workday of the session, some legislators debated various budget bills late into the evening after 11 bills cleared the Appropriation Committee in each chamber earlier in the day.
At stake is how to divvy up Arizona’s forecasted budget surplus of $1.5 to $2 billion while transitioning the state to a flat rate income tax and fine-tuning a $12.8 billion budget spending plan released Monday without tweaking it too much.
Many House Representatives believe the budget will be voted on no later than Friday afternoon, allowing lawmakers to leave for the long Memorial Day weekend. But as of Tuesday night, the 16 Republican Senators appeared nowhere near being on the same page, which is critical as all their votes are needed to pass the budget unless a few Democrats can be enticed to cross the aisle.
Masks in public schools turned out to be a divisive issue for many legislators after it was revealed that wording in the Education budget bill would allow schools to have the final say on wearing of masks. That led to a pushback from Sen. Michelle Ugenti-Rita as well as a sharply worded rebuke from Rep. Joseph Chaplik on Twitter.
“This is completely unacceptable and will not get my vote. In fact, I will not agree to any budget that doesn’t strip the power for mask mandates from school districts. Enough is enough,” Chaplik tweeted.
After much debate it appears as of press time that the mask language will be dropped.
Another highly debated issue involved what role the legislature should have in regulating vaccine passports, which some lawmakers refer to as “show me your medical records.” There has been a split among legislators on where, when, and why the vaccine passports could be allowed.
Currently Gov. Doug Ducey has an executive order in place which prohibits proof of COVID-19 vaccinations as a condition to enter state and local government buildings or to receive public benefits. His order also bans private businesses which conduct services on behalf of state and local governments from implementing a vaccine passport policy.
However, the question of whether universities, retail businesses, transportation companies, and large social venues can set some threshold of vaccination documentation remains unsettled. As is whether the legislature should weigh in on private employers demanding employees to be vaccinated to keep their jobs.
Other debated spending in the budget bill includes unemployment tax payments, low-income housing credits, and an increase in impounded vehicle fees, all of which would impact lower- and middle-income Arizonans the most.
Meanwhile, other legislators are concerned about the state’s long-term fiscal health and want to see Arizona’s debt addressed with some of the existing budget surplus, along with increasing the Rainy Day Fund and upping funding for the state’s universities. And rural lawmakers continue to push for increases in legislative per diems, which have not been adjusted in years.
One large ticket item already in the bill is $50 million toward the cost of widening a dangerous section of Interstate 10 between Casa Grande and Chandler. That funding was necessary to ensure an “aye” vote from Sen. TJ Shope.
Rep. Jake Hoffman said Tuesday he supports the budget’s flat tax proposal, but was still a no vote until much “unnecessary” spending was dumped. And while the idea of a flat tax is popular with Republicans, there still is not much consensus on the details.
There were also talk of Sen. Kelly Townsend seeing her long-sought election bills accounted for in some manner within the budget, in order to guarantee her vote. Instead, a multi-item amendment has been introduced to Townsend’s SB1241, meaning the bill will be address separate of the budget.
Republicans have only a two-vote majority in each chamber, giving each of the caucus’s 16 Senators and 31 Representatives an above average amount of leverage in budget negotiations. It is unclear whether sufficient Democrat-friendly priorities have been included in the budget bills to attract a few votes from the blue side in the event Republicans like Hoffman and Chaplik don’t come onboard.
by azfreenews1 | May 26, 2021 | News
On Tuesday, while hammering out the budget, members of both the Senate and House Appropriations Committees stripped Secretary of State Katie Hobbs of her ability to defend election lawsuits. Hobbs’ responsibility for the oversight of the Capitol Museum was also taken away.
The provision, which bars Hobbs from hiring outside counsel, would lapse on June 30, 2023.
Katie Conners, the Attorney General’s Public Information Officer, told the Yellow Sheet that the language is necessary because it would clear up confusion “created by the Secretary of State about who speaks for Arizona in court.”
The actions come in part from Hobbs’ failure to to pursue the defense of Arizona including in the case of its ballot harvesting law currently being challenged in federal court. The responsibility would go to the Attorney General’s Office.
Attorney General Mark Brnovich has defended the ballot harvesting law in front of the U.S. Supreme Court.
Almost two years ago, Hobbs, in what was seen as a clearly political stunt, snuck a gay pride flag into the museum and hung it from the balcony of the Capitol. No one objected to the flag itself, but to the manner in which she disregarded the Senate President and Speaker of the House who should have been consulted on the subject prior to taking any action.
Under the provisions of the new bill, care of the Capitol museum would be turned over to the Legislative Oversight Council.
by Terri Jo Neff | May 25, 2021 | News
By Terri Jo Neff |
Arizona’s forecasted budget surplus of $1.5 to $2 billion means a lot of potential massaging of the $12.8 billion budget spending plan released Monday after months in negotiations with Gov. Doug Ducey.
The surplus also means legislators will be more likely to flex their muscle in hopes of ensuring their constituents and pet projects are covered in the budget, with encouragement from Sen. TJ Shope (R-LD8), who said last week there is “plenty of money if we need to buy people off” to secure votes.
On Monday, Sen. Michelle Ugenti-Rita (R-LD23) tweeted an apparently rhetorical question about the budget plan.
“Instead of having a clean tax cut bill members could vote on, Senate leadership added to the tax bill an increase in unemployment insurance benefits, a 10 year extension of the Angel tax credit (which doesn’t expire for 3 yrs) and a $180M tax credit for low income housing. Why?” she tweeted.
Ugenti-Rita also expressed frustration Monday that some items have been included in various budget bills despite the fact the issue was previously voted down by the legislature. One such example is a storage fee increase for impounded vehicles.
“Funny thing is, a bill with this provision in it died in the Senate the other week,” she tweeted. “Wonder how many more dead bills have been resurrected in the budget..?” She also called out a “level of excessive spending” she cannot support as a fiscal conservative.
Members of the Senate Appropriations Committee will convene at 9 a.m. Tuesday, while their House counterparts are set to meet at 8 a.m. In a strategic move, Senate President Karen Fann appointed Senate Majority Leader Rick Gray (R-LD21) to Appropriations in an effort to blunt any committee opposition from Ugenti-Rita.
As to Shope, he made it known weeks ago his support for the budget would be contingent on funds to widen a dangerous section of Interstate 10 between Casa Grande and Chandler. The result was $50 million earmarked in the budget for Shope’s project.
But while Shope received what he wanted, it is unclear whether Republicans such as Sen. Paul Boyer and Rep. David Cook will have their demands sufficiently met to ensure their budget votes. Boyer (R-LD20) outlined his budget priorities last week, including concerns about Arizona’s debt, Rainy Day Fund, and insufficient funding for the state’s universities.
Cook (R-LD8) is unhappy Ducey and the legislative budget team included the increase in unemployment benefits, although whether the increase ever kicks in next year is contingent on several economic thresholds. While on the House side, Rep. Jake Hoffman (R-LD12) is leading the charge to increase the state’s spending on elections by cutting millions from other projects, including a boost in salary for state employees.
Sen. J.D. Mesnard, a Republican for LD17, has been involved in the budget process, and cautioned his fellow legislators that “a million dollars here or there” of new expenditures “adds up.” Which can put other budget features at risk, including a much-touted plan to transition Arizona to a flat-tax method for income tax.
Republicans only have a two vote majority in each chamber, giving each of the 16 Senators and 31 Representatives within the Republican caucus some leverage in budget negotiations. Normally there may be enough Democrat-friendly priorities built into the budget bills to persuade one or two to cross the aisle, but the size of proposed tax cuts -currently at $3 billion over the next three years- could slam that door shut.
by AZ Free News | May 25, 2021 | News
The U.S. Department of Interior has given its approval to the amended tribal-state gaming compact, finalizing an agreement to modernize gaming in Arizona that was signed in April by Governor Doug Ducey and the state’s tribal leaders.
“Gaming creates thousands of jobs for Arizonans, it generates tax revenue that benefits key areas of our communities, and it draws visitors to our state,” said Governor Ducey. “The tribal-state gaming compact amendment, along with its associated legislation, was the culmination of a multi-year process and I was proud to work with all the stakeholders on this historic accomplishment.”
On April 15, Governor Ducey joined state lawmakers and tribal leaders to sign House Bill 2772, and the amended tribal-state gaming compact. The legislation is part of a compromise that was negotiated in the amended gaming compact, which underwent the most significant modernization in almost two decades.
The compact amendment and the associated legislation took more than five years to negotiate, and it ensures gaming in Arizona remains limited and regulated while providing certainty for the future of the state and tribes.
by Terri Jo Neff | May 24, 2021 | News
By Terri Jo Neff |
The U.S. Chamber of Commerce is providing tips to employers in an effort to use the fact that businesses in many communities are often seen as “trusted sources of information” who can persuade employees and customers to receive the COVID-19 vaccine.
“This is especially important right now given the state of the pandemic and the hesitation some people have about receiving one of the approved COVID-19 vaccines,” according to the chamber’s website. “Vaccination is a personal decision, so it’s logical that when employers show a personal willingness to be vaccinated, they are more likely to increase the willingness of their employees—across all demographic groups – to follow their lead and get the shot.”
The website also provides links for employers on how to talk to employees about getting vaccinated, and provides information on business-sponsored “get vaccinated” events.
Through its website, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce Foundation has highlighted the efforts of dozens of national employers who promote vaccine events and are encouraging vaccinations for their employees. The foundation is also sponsoring free events for employers, business owners, and community leaders.
On May 27, the Chamber is sponsoring a free broadcast with CDC Director Rochelle Walensky about the current state of the pandemic, where things stand with vaccination efforts, what to expect short term, and what businesses should do to prepare for the next phase.
To register, go to https://events.uschamberfoundation.org/CDCDirectorWalensky?i=3z-bYdLGmUYp1K6R5fjC-29z28x28vQo
by Terri Jo Neff | May 24, 2021 | News
By Terri Jo Neff |
Questions remain in the aftermath of the U.S. Census Bureau’s release last month of the 2020 Decennial Census which put Arizona’s official population at nearly 7.16 million.
That figure, up more than 746,000 from a decade earlier, represented the eighth largest increase by number and the ninth fast growth rate in the country. But census officials determined it was not enough to earn Arizona its 10th seat in the U.S. House of Representatives.
There was much finger pointing at the time of the announcement that Arizona’s population fell 250,000 short of estimates even though Gov. Doug Ducey’s AZ Census 2020 Taskforce reported that census enumerators and volunteers attempted to reach 99.9 percent of all households in the state despite COVID-19 lockdowns and social distancing challenges.
But according to a theory by a former official who served in the Trump Administration’s Commerce Department, the reason some states ended up with unexpected results might have more to do with how the Census Bureau calculates the number of people who live in known households that did not fill out a census questionnaire.
Adam Korzeniewski is a Marine Corps combat veteran who specializes in fiscal and economic policy as well as national security topics. In an article published earlier this month in The American Mind, he cites the Census Bureau’s reliance on estimates as cause for concern for some states, including Arizona.
Federal law does not allow the Secretary of Commerce to rely on statistical sampling to fill in the blanks for households that do not respond to the census. But other methods are allowed, and Korzeniewski believes some of those need to be questioned.
According to the U.S. Census Bureau, demographic characteristics about the people who live in every verified residence is necessary to obtain “a complete and accurate census. Unfortunately, not all households respond to the census questionnaire. When that happens, a census taker first turns to administrative records from the IRS and other government agencies to fill in the blanks about who likely lives in that household.
If a reliable administrative record is not available and the local census taker is unable to contact the household after three visits, information can be obtained from a neighbor, landlord or building manager. This is referred to as a proxy response.
The last method the Census Bureau uses is imputation, a statistical technique officials say makes the overall dataset “more accurate than leaving the gaps blank” by using what data is known to filling in what data is not known.
“We recognize that using information from these three techniques — imputation, using administrative records, and proxies — may not always match the reality of an address’s occupancy status or the characteristics of the people who live there,” the Census Bureau says. “However, these techniques are widely used in statistics because they have been proven to be more accurate than leaving the information blank.
Public records show about 1,172,000 “people” were imputed nationwide in 2000 and 1,163,000 in 2010. The 2020 figure has not been released yet although it is expected to be higher due to COVID-19 related difficulties.
But Korzeniewski, who also served in Trump’s Treasury Department, wrote in his article that the Census Bureau used another form of imputation in 2020 which he contends is based on statistical sampling. This occurred when census officials decided to utilize a “Group Quarters Imputation” due to problems gaining access to “households” located in places like colleges and residential healthcare facilities.
The greater reliance on such imputation was not part of the 2020 Decennial testing phases nor did state census officials have any input on the decision, Korzeniewski wrote. That could be the basis for Arizona officials to acquire state-by-state imputations records from the Census Bureau with details of the types of imputation used.
“To my knowledge, the Census does not normally produce such documentation and it takes years for the Census to publish studies on itself,” Korzeniewski wrote, adding that states would also need to ask for records pertaining to the decision-making processes around the data calculation processes in order to determine whether it has grounds to challenge the Census outcomes.
“Successfully challenging the Census results would affect appropriation and could affect apportionment,” he wrote. “The Census typically takes years to officially release information on the Decennial, making it impossible for states to seek redress if action is not taken quickly.”
