January’s jobs report smashed expectations and signals a turning point in the labor market where job creation catches up with broader economic conditions. The report shows 130,000 jobs created, the unemployment rate falling to 4.3%, and labor force participation rising.
Economic growth last quarter was above 4% and is projected to be 4% again this quarter. The Dow Jones recently reached 50,000, as I predicted last fall. And gas prices and inflation are low.
Now workers are starting to feel the benefit in terms of associated job creation and wage growth. The jobs report shows workers’ real wages continuing to significantly rise, a stark contrast to their declines during the Biden administration.
An added bonus: Parasitical federal government jobs continue to decline, falling 34,000 last month and more than 10% since Donald Trump took office. Government jobs too often padded previous employment reports when the relevant metric should be productive private-sector job creation.
Strong labor-market, economic, and financial-market growth doesn’t happen in a vacuum. It’s the result of good public policy that empowers Main Street over big government.
Exhibit A is last year’s Republican tax cuts. These tax cuts prevented the largest middle-class tax hike in history from occurring. They empowered small businesses by restoring and making permanent 100% immediate expensing and locking in a 20% deduction on earnings. These tax cuts are game changers for job creators, incentivizing them to expand, hire, and raise wages.
Despite delivering one of the most consequential tax cuts in modern American history, however, Republicans are somehow trailing Democrats on the issue of taxes, according to new Fox News polling. Even though every single Democrat voted against them.
This isn’t just backwards. It’s political malpractice fueled by a media ecosystem that has abandoned facts in favor of Democratic talking points. Voters have been told again and again — by headlines, by cable news panels, by progressive activists masquerading as journalists — that Republicans are the party of “tax breaks for billionaires.”
In reality, these are middle-class tax cuts that actually make the tax code more progressive.
A stronger economy, rising 401(k) balances, and higher living standards will help blunt the impact of this misinformation and convert some independents. But small businesses and conservatives have a responsibility to spread the word to right this polling wrong.
Every small business with a tax-savings story needs to speak up in their communities, with their employees, and on their social media, explaining how these tax cuts have helped them survive and thrive. That’s the least they can do in return for these tax savings.
Meanwhile, conservatives need to start singing from the same page on these uniting economic issues. A strong opportunity, affordability, and standard-of-living message, combined with a focus on deporting violent criminals and sanity on culture issues, is the winning approach Republicans need to boost their polling and hold onto Congress this fall.
The first step is connecting the dots between small-business tax cuts, job creation, and affordability.
Alfredo Ortiz is a contributor to The Daily Caller News Foundation, CEO of Job Creators Network, author of “The Real Race Revolutionaries,” and co-host of the Main Street Matters podcast.
The Republican majority at the Arizona House and Senate are advancing legislation to ensure full income tax conformity.
The state remains without conformity since Gov. Katie Hobbs rejected a solution by the Republican-led legislature amounting to $1.1 billion. Republicans are trying to bring another solution to the table with HB 2785. It’s unclear if Hobbs will pull up a seat for it.
Earlier this month, Hobbs vetoed legislation that would have aligned Arizona tax code with many of the congressional changes passed last summer under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
The governor accused Republicans of giving tax breaks to special interests and increasing taxes on working senior citizens. Hobbs said she would only agree to the Democratic minority’s Middle Class Tax Cuts Package.
“I urge you to rethink your partisan political theater and send the Middle Class Tax Cuts Package to my desk,” said Hobbs. “We should not hold tax cuts for over 88 percent of Arizonans hostage in order to force through tax breaks for special interests. Other questions of tax conformity must be decided through budget negotiations, following the precedent set by Governor Ducey.”
Unfortunately for the governor, the Arizona Department of Revenue (ADOR) had already advised Arizonans on how to file under federal tax law changes.
Several days before the governor issued her veto, ADOR notified lawmakers of the impossibility of altering their forms during the filing season. This latest bill from Republicans would codify ADOR’s instructions to taxpayers. Senate Finance Committee Chairman J.D. Mesnard (R-LD13) said the bill wasn’t the preferred approach since it wouldn’t provide as much relief to working families.
“The Department of Revenue has already told taxpayers how to file, and we are compelled to make sure the law and that guidance align, especially since the Department has publicly advised taxpayers not to wait to file,” said Mesnard. “Doing nothing would only guarantee more confusion and force families and businesses to fix the government’s mistakes later. We will never support a plan that requires taxpayers to amend their returns because state leaders failed to act when it mattered. It would be completely unjust.”
Without conformity, Arizonans have no way of knowing the accuracy of their filings. It’s likely taxpayers will need to refile, and even possibly pay more than they are prepared to pay.
House Speaker Steve Montenegro (R-LD29) said Hobbs was to blame for the present burden of impossible compliance facing Arizona taxpayers. The speaker said the governor has refused to communicate further with Republican leadership on conformity.
“Arizona taxpayers are being asked to file on forms that do not clearly match state law, while the Governor offers no answers and no alternative plan,” said Montenegro. “We asked for clarification privately. We asked publicly. We sent a detailed letter. We received silence. With tax season underway, waiting is not an option. This legislation exists because executive inaction left taxpayers exposed, and the Legislature has a responsibility to step in and restore clarity.”
Senate President Warren Petersen (R-LD14) said it was Hobbs’ agency that introduced the deductive provisions for wealthier filers to which she objected.
“It’s unfortunate the Governor has chosen not to work with us. The Legislature is stepping in to provide certainty by conforming state law to the tax forms her DOR has already released, including the State and Local Tax Deduction,” said Petersen. “The Governor would call that provision a tax break for the rich. We do not support the SALT deduction, but her agency has already included it on the forms, leaving the Legislature no choice but to address it. Tax reform was meant to make filing simpler and more predictable, not create confusion, anger, and frustration for Arizona taxpayers.”
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Republican legislators have sent a $1.1 billion tax relief package to Gov. Katie Hobbs, escalating a high-stakes policy dispute over tax conformity as the state enters filing season.
According to a statement released by House and Senate Republicans, lawmakers rapidly passed House Bill 2153 and Senate Bill 1106, legislation designed to align Arizona’s tax code with federal tax reforms enacted in 2025. Supporters estimate the measures will deliver approximately $1.1 billion in tax relief over the next three years.
The bills now await the governor’s signature.
💰 House & Senate Republicans Pass $1.1 Billion Tax Relief Plan for Arizona Families
Today, House and Senate Republicans passed a tax conformity plan and sent it to Governor Hobbs’ desk, delivering an estimated $1.1 billion in tax relief over the next three years. With families… pic.twitter.com/nrKGex6cBD
In a statement posted to X, House Republicans wrote, “With costs still high and tax season underway, Arizona families shouldn’t be left waiting. The Legislature has done its job, now it’s time for the Governor to sign this relief into law.”
Republican leaders said the legislation is intended to provide clarity and certainty for families, small businesses, and tax preparers, particularly as tax season is underway. The package fully conforms Arizona law to recent federal tax changes and codifies provisions such as preventing the taxation of tips and overtime pay.
House and Senate Republicans said the plan is focused on helping working families retain more of their earnings, supporting small businesses and job creators, and ensuring taxpayers receive clear and lawful tax guidance during the filing process.
The legislation’s passage follows criticism from the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) over Gov. Hobbs’ separate tax conformity proposal. In a press release earlier this week, NFIB Arizona State Director Chad Heinrich urged lawmakers to reject the governor’s approach and instead advance HB 2153 and SB 1106.
"In turning a blind eye to Arizona's small business owners, the Governor's tax conformity proposal would place these employers in limbo–forcing owners to wait on expansion plans and hiring decisions."https://t.co/QggQf98seB
Heinrich argued that Hobbs’ proposal would delay tax certainty by requiring taxpayers to wait until budget negotiations conclude before knowing how Arizona will align with federal tax changes passed in 2025 — potentially leaving taxpayers without clarity until June 2026.
“It’s unclear if the left hand knows what the right hand is doing in the Hobbs administration,” Heinrich said. He criticized the proposal for abandoning 2025 tax forms already posted by the Arizona Department of Revenue and instructing taxpayers to wait until budget negotiations are finalized. “This should be a non-starter,” Heinrich said.
NFIB highlighted HB 2153 and SB 1106 as preferred alternatives, noting that the bills would fully adopt federal tax reforms enacted in 2025, including provisions tied to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), which the organization said small business owners welcomed for the certainty it provided.
“Small business owners breathed a sigh of relief when the One Big Beautiful Bill Act passed and collectively looked forward to the certainty that it provided,” Heinrich said. “Now, the Governor wants to upend all of that to score partisan political points, breaking precedent with how Arizona has always addressed federal tax changes.”
As previously reported by AZ Free News, legislative supporters say the GOP-backed bills offer broader tax relief than the governor’s more narrowly targeted proposal by fully conforming state law to a wide range of federal tax code changes, including those affecting businesses and itemized deductions.
NFIB noted that Arizona’s small businesses employ approximately 1.2 million people statewide and account for seven out of every ten new jobs created. The organization warned that uncertainty over tax conformity could delay business expansion and hiring.
With the legislation now on the governor’s desk, Republican lawmakers said Arizona families and businesses are waiting to see whether Hobbs will sign the tax relief package or veto another key Republican reform.
For years, Arizona was governed by Republican majorities in the state legislature—with Republicans also holding the Governor’s and Attorney General’s offices. During that time, we transformed Arizona into one of the most enviable and prosperous states in the nation: a booming economy, a hot jobs market, a flat income tax, strong support for law and order, and universal school choice.
That all changed in 2023 when Katie Hobbs and Kris Mayes—both Democrats—took over the Governor’s and Attorney General’s offices. Since then, they’ve worked to impose a radical agenda and remake Arizona in the image of California. If not for the slim Republican majorities in both chambers of the Arizona Legislature, Hobbs and Mayes would have quickly succeeded.
As the leader of the Senate Republicans, it has been my honor to work with my colleagues to defend Arizona values and push forward conservative priorities. Despite divided government, we’ve used every tool in our toolbox to not only stop the radical left’s agendas, but to also lead. In doing so, we have set the standard for other states dealing with divided government. Here are just a few of the top victories we’ve secured on behalf of Arizonans.
Fully Funded and Protected Universal School Choice
Over the past two decades, Arizona has led the nation in enacting school choice, giving all families the freedom to choose the education that best fits their children. We dramatically increased K-12 funding (now approximately $13,000 per student) during this time, investing heavily in and safeguarding all forms of education across the state—district, charter, home school, online, and empowerment scholarship accounts. The left only wants to give you one choice to educate your child. Both Hobbs and Mayes have prioritized the dismantling of the apparatuses that let parents decide where their children go to school.
I believe educational freedom is a foundation of the American Dream. Families shouldn’t be trapped in failing schools based on their zip code; rather, they should have the right to choose the educational institutions that work best for their sons and daughters. Unfortunately, Hobbs and Mayes have repeatedly rejected this belief to the detriment of our state’s future.
Under my leadership at the legislature, we stopped them. School choice remains fully funded and protected—even in this divided government. Fighting for parental empowerment and school choice has been one of the most consequential and rewarding endeavors of my time as Senate President. I believe that we are rescuing an entire generation of Arizonans from the grip of a broken education system.
Tax Cuts for Arizonans
One of our top priorities has been to return money to Arizona taxpayers. Despite repeated attempts by Hobbs to block us, we’ve delivered real tax relief. We eliminated the rental tax in Arizona, saving families and renters hundreds of millions of dollars each year. Charging a rental tax is bad policy, and now these revenues will stay in the pockets of the people who need them the most.
Republican lawmakers forced the governor to sign additional bills that cut taxes for hard-working Arizonans. We raised the state’s business personal property tax exemption, reducing burdens on small business owners. We banned municipal excise taxes on residential leases, relieving tenants of additional tax liability and helping lower housing costs. And we passed the Arizona Families Tax Rebate to return funds directly to eligible families.
At a time when families are feeling squeezed, we’re doing what government should—getting out of the way and letting our hardworking taxpayers keep more of what they earn. These tax cuts are the result of smart, conservative leadership that puts everyday Arizonans first. This is the same pro-growth, American First approach that President Trump is delivering for our nation, and we’re proud to carry that torch here in the Grand Canyon State.
Fully Vetted Agency Directors
One of the most consequential powers of any governor is the ability to nominate and install agency directors, who do the bidding of their chief executive. These individuals wield enormous influence over how state government functions, and under Hobbs, many of her nominees have been extreme, unqualified, or relatively unknown to the public. That’s why one of my first actions as Senate President was to create accountability through a formal vetting process for the governor’s nominees. The purpose was to ensure the individuals chosen to lead integral government agencies were competent and aligned with Arizona values. Despite resistance from the governor, we succeeded. We held her nominees to high standards and protected Arizona from the consequences of unchecked political appointments.
End of DOJ Investigation into Phoenix Police Department
Over the past several years, the Phoenix Police Department was the target of a blatantly politicized witch hunt by President Biden’s Department of Justice. They twisted facts and law in a backhanded attempt to hijack another police department and bring it under the control of the federal government. After I contacted the Trump administration and met with several of the President’s top officials, the White House and DOJ ended this rampage against the men and women in blue from the Phoenix Police Department. The announcement from the Trump administration was complete vindication, and it removed the handcuffs off our law enforcement so that they may do their jobs to keep the City of Phoenix and our citizens safe from criminals seeking to cause harm.
Divided government is messy. The path forward isn’t always easy or clear. But through consensus building, unity, discipline, determination, and bold conservative leadership, we’ve proven in Arizona that progress is possible—even in the toughest of times. The rewards of this hard work are immense for those entrusted with leaving our state and nation in a better place for future generations of Americans. I hope that our efforts in Arizona have not only preserved our rich heritage of conservative values, but inspired other warriors around the country to follow in our footsteps.
Warren Petersen is the President of the Arizona State Senate and represents Legislative District 14.
Republican legislative leaders in Arizona introduced a tax conformity plan on last week, aimed at aligning the state’s tax code with recent federal tax reforms. The proposal, outlined in a joint press release from the Arizona State Legislature, estimates roughly $1.1 billion in tax savings for Arizonans over the next three years.
Senate Finance Committee Chairman J.D. Mesnard (R-LD13) and House Ways & Means Committee Chairman Justin Olson (R-LD25) are sponsoring the plan through two bills: SB 1106 and HB 2153.
According to the release, Republican lawmakers say the conformity effort will provide certainty to taxpayers and tax preparers amid the current filing season. They state the proposal would adjust Arizona’s tax code to reflect provisions of the federal tax overhaul known as the “One Big Beautiful Bill.”
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Arizona families deserve relief. House Republicans are advancing a $1.1B tax relief plan so you can keep more of what you earn.
The Republican plan would include measures such as increasing the child tax credit and establishing a deduction for childcare expenses. It would also aim to apply the federal tax reforms to Arizona’s individual and business tax structures.
“This is an urgent matter. With tax season underway, tax professionals and families alike need clear guidance now,” Senate President Warren Petersen said. “Until the Legislature acts and the Governor signs this plan into law, there is real confusion about how to handle state tax returns. We’re urging Governor Hobbs to join us in resolving this issue promptly by signing this historic tax cut when it hits her desk.”
House Speaker Steve Montenegro (R-LD29) is quoted in the release, asserting that formal legislative action is needed to resolve confusion created by recent state tax guidance issued by the governor’s office, which he says assumes legislative action has already occurred.
Montenegro explained, “The Governor jumped ahead of the law by issuing state tax guidance this week that assumes legislative action – which hasn’t happened yet – and her recent executive order only deepens confusion. This kind of unilateral overreach undermines the process and leaves families, tax preparers, and businesses stuck in the middle.”
He added, “The Legislature is moving to restore certainty, respect the separation of powers, and make sure Arizonans have clear, lawful guidance.”
The press release states that Republican sponsors contend the plan’s focus is on working families, seniors on fixed incomes, and small businesses, and that it would codify measures such as preventing taxation of tips and overtime pay.
SB 1106 and HB 2153 are set to be debated in the Legislature as the session begins.
