Maricopa County political races are essentially in a dead heat with less than two months until Election Day.
Earlier this month, Noble Predictive Insights (NPI) released its survey on Maricopa County races, showing Republicans and Democrats locked in a tight battle for all races.
According to NPI, the Maricopa County Sheriff’s race was tied with Republican Jerry Sheridan and Democrat Tyler Kamp tied at thirty-five percent each, with twenty-four percent undecided. Kamp has a twelve percent lead with independents, with thirty-six percent of that voting share undecided.
Incumbent Republican Maricopa County Attorney Rachel Mitchell leads Democrat Tamika Wooten by two percent (37-35%), with twenty-one percent undecided. Wooten has a ten percent lead with independents, with twenty-nine percent of that voting share undecided.
Democrat Gregory Freeman might be the frontrunner in the Maricopa County Assessor’s race, with a three-point advantage over incumbent Republican Eddie Cook (36-33%). There is twenty-six percent undecided in this race. Freeman holds a fifteen-point lead over Cook with independents, with forty percent undecided.
And in the Maricopa County Recorder’s contest, Democrat Tim Stringham leads Republican Justin Heap by four percent (38-34%), with twenty-two percent undecided. Stringham enjoys a fifteen percent lead over Heap with independents, with thirty-five percent of that voting share undecided.
“These races are incredibly close. In each one, the leading candidate is ahead by a low single-digit margin. With a high number of undecideds and more than two months between fielding this poll and Election Day – this poll just doesn’t point to a clear winner,” said Mike Noble, NPI President & CEO. “But historical data might tell us more.”
Daniel Stefanski is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
Maricopa County’s Republican voters declined to reelect Stephen Richer for recorder, instead electing his opponent, State Representative Justin Heap.
Richer lost despite having a well-funded and diverse network of bipartisan support, as well as a unique platform with the media after Heap was mistakenly denied the chance to participate in a televised debate.
In an X post, Richer said that he accepted the results and would “move on.” Richer pledged to carry out his duties in his remaining months in office, while making claims about the successes of his administration: improved voter rolls and flawless mail voting.
“[O]ne of my friends said the Maricopa County Recorder’s Office is basically like teaching Defense Against the Dark Arts. It’s cursed. So best wishes to my successor!” said Richer.
It's been a privilege. Thank you.
Elections have winners and, sadly, losers. And in this one, it looks like I'm going to end up on the losing side of the column.
But that's the name of the game. Accept it. Move on.
Congratulations to @azjustinheap on winning the primary…
— Stephen Richer—MaricopaCountyRecorder (prsnl acct) (@stephen_richer) July 31, 2024
In his victory statement doubled as a campaign donation pull, Heap said that he would “end the laughingstock elections” of Maricopa County perpetuated under Richer.
Today is an exciting day in Arizona and a great day for America!
This November, we will end the laughingstock elections that have plagued our county, state and nation.
Let me be clear, this is the second most important race after re-electing President Donald Trump on the ballot… pic.twitter.com/qMOL9m2M8p
— Az State Rep. Justin Heap (@azjustinheap) July 31, 2024
Richer himself was also bipartisan with his voting choices. Earlier this summer, the recorder announced he would vote to reelect Democratic President Joe Biden rather than former President Donald Trump.
In the months leading up to that announcement, Richer hinted at his apparent party ambivalency.
Last year, Richer dismissed the importance of certain social issues that make up a major portion of the GOP platform: transgender activism, woke corporations, and critical race theory, among them.
The recorder’s ousting marks a close to a controversial and heated tenure kicked off by the 2020 election and similar contentions renewed in the 2022 election.
To Richer, contentions with the 2020 election were largely unfounded. Richer strongly opposed the election audit.
The 2022 election, the first under Richer’s watch, experienced significant failures of election machines leading up to and on election day. The issues prompted an investigation by then-outgoing Attorney General Mark Brnovich.
Richer used the attention from the election machine failures to fundraise for his reelection campaign.
Richer also doubled the number of vote centers, a point of contention for GOP voters due to beliefs that vote centers allow for easier ballot harvesting.
In 2022, Richer worked with the Biden administration on plans for speech moderation. Richer suggested that the government hold “bootcamps” for media outlets to improve election reporting.
Later that year, Richer deleted a tweet celebrating his prevention of a certain media outlet from having access to the county as part of a newly created press pass system. A federal court later ruled that Richer’s press pass denial was violative of the First Amendment. Richer later deleted his celebratory tweet.
Shortly after rolling out the press pass restrictions, the county launched a disinformation center.
Richer has also defended the much-maligned mail-in ballots as less problematic than in-person voting, as well as unmanned drop boxes.
Earlier this year, we reported on Richer tasking staff with compiling articles and online content pertaining to his personal defamation lawsuit against Kari Lake for her claims of the 2022 election, which marked her defeat against now-Governor Katie Hobbs.
Richer was also involved with the Republican Accountability Project, a Democratic dark money group that spent millions to ensure the defeat of 2022 gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake.
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The famous poet and philosopher Ralph Waldo Emerson from the 1800s once quipped, “What you do speaks so loudly that I cannot hear what you are saying.” This is especially true when observing how our elected officials operate our government.
Per several posts on X, voters recently received a text blast referencing Vice President Kamala Harris as the “presumptive Democrat nominee” and chiding her “radical” left election policy positions, including “same-day voter registration, no voter ID, and more federal control of our elections.” The text blast made a policy commitment on behalf of the current Maricopa County Recorder Stephen Richer to protect us from these extreme policies.
How is he going to defend against Kamala's radical policies if he's voting for her!? pic.twitter.com/nplbCEi7d1
— Rep. Alexander Kolodin (@realAlexKolodin) July 29, 2024
But when presented with the opportunity to codify such protections into law, the Maricopa County Recorder’s track record tells a different story.
In the 2022 legislative session, State Representative Jake Hoffman introduced bill HB2237, which would have made same-day voter registration illegal in Arizona.
It was a very simple bill that just stated:
Same-day voter registration is a scheme from the left to overwhelm County Recorders with thousands of registrations on Election Day or during a voting period. This makes it nearly impossible to confirm if someone is actually a legal citizen resident of Arizona before providing them with a ballot.
Currently, throughout the year, but especially at the last minute right before voter registration election deadlines, many groups in Arizona, especially from the left, have generous paid programs to register voters. They often don’t submit completed forms, creating complications for election workers. Jen Fifield from Vote Beat recently reported on the issues caused by this.
NEW: Hundreds of Arizonans who tried to register to vote just before Tuesday’s primary election were blocked from the rolls because of a problem with their paper forms, @VotebeatUS analysis found.https://t.co/Rye0LtDxmV
As the article mentions, these same extreme left groups advocate for same-day voter registration, and many pushed their members and lobbyists to sign in against HB2237 in 2022. Even Katie Hobbs’ Secretary of State Office signed in against the bill, while conservative groups like the Arizona Free Enterprise Club and Heritage Action signed in favor of banning same-day voter registration.
You would think that at such a moment as this bold, simple bill, the Maricopa County Recorder could take a strong stand and defend his employees and the voters from such an insane policy from the left. Unfortunately, neither the Recorder’s Office, his office’s lobbyist, nor the associations for the recorders and counties took a position on the bill. The Maricopa County Recorder didn’t show up to testify for or against the bill either.
Complete silence.
When it comes to voter ID, it gets much worse.
The Arizona Legislature added Proposition 309 to the 2022 ballot, which would have added a voter ID requirement on early ballots. It was a simple proposal that the Recorder’s Office was previously on record as supporting in principle, per public records.
When the bill was brought before the Legislature, the Arizona Association of Counties opposed it. There is no record of the Recorder or his lobbyist associations taking a position on the bill or offering amendments.
When the proposition made it to the ballot, the Maricopa County Recorder not only publicly opposed voter ID for early voting but also used government resources to do so.
The Arizona County Recorders (people who oversee early voting) OPPOSE Proposition 309.
— Stephen Richer—MaricopaCountyRecorder (prsnl acct) (@stephen_richer) October 11, 2022
I found this strange since all my previous interactions with Recorder Richer, from working on his 2019 “election integrity” report to conversations with his office on policy to a coffee meeting I had with him one-on-one in 2021, all indicated that his position was that signature verification alone wasn’t sufficient to secure elections and that some sort of voter ID mechanism was needed to secure early ballots.
It's interesting that you flipped your position on the effectiveness of signature verification, @stephen_richer, because last we met you affirmed that our findings from our election audit report still remained & signature review process is not sufficient to secure our vote pic.twitter.com/rHtEpIzleW
July 23, 2021, @stephen_richer told me at a coffee meeting his department has no way to legitimately verify signatures and the voter rolls were a complete mess
He said he needed at least two more identifiers to confidently confirm voter identity and stop ballot harvesting https://t.co/FXGjnqAvb2
— Merissa Hamilton 🗳 ⛽ 🗽🔥 (@merissahamilton) May 9, 2023
The Arizonans for Voter ID organization sent a letter to the Arizona Attorney General admonishing Recorder Richer for violating the law by using his government office resources to advocate against the ballot referral.
.@stephen_richer did this to voice his feelings on #Prop309 which ensures everyone shows ID, and wrongly claimed unanimous support for his letter, which doesn't exist. We hope @GeneralBrnovich protects our elections from the inappropriate influence of the Recorder's Office. pic.twitter.com/ifbsVfRZkT
The voter ID proposition ended up failing by 18,488 votes and only by 2.5% in Maricopa County.
Fast forward two years. The Maricopa County Recorder’s letter on Prop 309 is scrubbed from the internet now that he’s running for re-election, and text blasts are going out stating he will defend voter ID.
To be clear, the current Maricopa County Recorder not only has multiple associations at his disposal to advocate for or against policy, but he also has his own lobbyist for his office. With all these lobbying resources, his opponent Rep. Justin Heap was recently featured on the Mike Broomhead show as stating that although he’s served on the Legislature’s House Elections Committee for the last two years, he’s never seen the Maricopa County Recorder at the Legislature. Heap says Recorder Richer has been a “hindrance” in passing needed laws, such as those to fight radical left policies.
When it comes to federal laws, as I mentioned in my piece on AZ Free News last week, the current Recorder has also been silent on his award-winning X platform in advocating for the Speaker Johnson-supported SAVE Act to require proof of citizenship for voters in federal elections.
One thing is for certain, while the current Maricopa County Recorder has taken a back seat when it comes to defending voters from radical left policies, Maricopa County voters are certainly desperate for our county recorders to use their resources to give us a stronger voice in standing up for policies that would strengthen the security and trust in our elections.
Merissa Hamilton is the founder and chairwoman of the nonpartisan nonprofit organizations Strong Communities Foundation of Arizona and Strong Communities Action, also known as EZAZ.org, which are focused on making civic education and action as easy as pie. She’s an elected Member at Large of Congressional District 1 for the Arizona Republican Party and previously ran for Mayor in 2020. Merissa is also the Director of Integration and Policy at The R.O.A.R. PAC, which is on a mission to restore our American Republic.
After an alleged error cost the Republican Party’s favored candidate for Maricopa County Recorder the chance to participate in a televised debate, Arizona PBS is reportedly trying to make amends with Arizona State Rep. Justin Heap and his supporters.
As reported by The Arizona Daily Independent, the June 11 debate made headlines for all the wrong reasons when just two of the three candidates in the GOP Primary were invited, namely Maricopa County Recorder Stephen Richer and Don Hiatt. Heap’s absence was notable, public, and embarrassing for the public broadcaster.
Both Richer and Hiatt capitalized on the State Representative’s absence, taking rhetorical shots at Heap and moderator and “Arizona Horizon” host Ted Simons. Simons, who severs as Managing Editor of the platform, failed to acknowledge the error before the debate commenced.
Sources near the Heap campaign told ADI that they weren’t contacted by Arizona PBS until an hour before the event was to take place. Heap himself only became aware of it after seeing it on Richer’s X feed. Producers from Arizona PBS asked at 3PM on the 11th if he could get to the studio by 4PM… from East Mesa… in rush-hour. He replied that he could get there by 4:15PM at the earliest, and Arizona PBS informed him that would be too late.
It wasn’t until later that a request was found emailed to Heap’s official legislative email account. And had he replied to it, political consultants advised, he could be prosecuted for violating state law by using public resources for a partisan campaign.
After contacting Heap with a formal apology, Arizona PBS will air a one-on-one interview with Heap Thursday at 5 PM, an hour before the CNN Presidential Debate. In a letter to Heap, Arizona PBS political news producer, Grace Provenzano, apologized to the candidate.
In the letter obtained by the Independent, Provenzano wrote, “I want to apologize, once again, for our failure to reach you in a timely fashion in advance of the Maricopa County Recorder debate event yesterday. We know that it placed you and your campaign at a disadvantage and for that we are truly sorry.
In order to provide equitable airtime, we would like to schedule a one-on-one interview with you and Horizon host Ted Simons to offer you the opportunity to discuss your campaign platform and issues for our viewers. The interview would be pre-taped to air during the regular broadcast of Arizona Horizon the same day it is recorded. We would like to schedule the on-set interview as soon as possible so it can be seen prior to the beginning of the early primary voting.”
The outlet reported that the interview will be aired Thursday, June 27 at 5 PM.
In a post to X, Heap answered his opponents’ comments on his absence from the debate, writing in part, “The desperation from my opponents & their supporters is just embarrassing at this point They’re laughably trying to claim I’m too ‘scared’ to debate them in the government-subsidized PBS debate. Let’s clear something up, we’ve already debated once, and I won easily. We also have a Clean Elections Debate coming up. In fact, tonight’s debate is yet another example why we shouldn’t have state-subsidized media outlets like PBS. Their incompetence is so glaring that they couldn’t even manage to properly contact me or my campaign about the debate. …or maybe they just wanted to help their preferred Democrat-friendly candidates. Whatever the reason, it’s PBS with their total of ~53 viewers. FWIW, I made a good faith effort to rearrange my schedule and attend; however, it simply wasn’t possible without disrespecting the voters who had already made plans to come and meet with me about my plans for the Recorder’s office.”
The desperation from my opponents & their supporters is just embarrassing at this point
They’re laughably trying to claim I’m too “scared” to debate them in the government-subsidized PBS debate😂
Let’s clear something up, we’ve already debated once, and I won easily.
We also…
— Az State Rep. Justin Heap (@azjustinheap) June 12, 2024
Heap would later participate in the forum presented by the Citizens Clean Elections Commission on June 24 and made serious accusation against incumbent Stephen Richer saying that election rules were not followed and that Arizonans have a right to be skeptical about election results. He said that legal safeguards weren’t followed according to 12News and that the signature verification process for mail-in ballots was “inadequate.”
“I do not trust the system as it is currently being operated,” Heap added.
Another Arizona Legislative disciplinary issue may be reaching its conclusion.
Last week, the Arizona House of Representatives Committee on Ethics transmitted its report on the complaint filed the previous month against Democrat Representative Stephanie Stahl Hamilton. The May 1 complaint was levied by three Republican Representatives: Justin Heap, David Marshall and Lupe Diaz.
The ethics complaint alleged “that on three separate occasions in March and April 2023, Representative Stahl Hamilton moved two Holy Bibles from their locations in the Members’ Lounge and hid them under the Lounge’s couch cushions and in a refrigerator in the shared Coffee Bar.”
After a response by Representative Stahl Hamilton and an Evidentiary Hearing held on May 25, the Arizona House Ethics Committee found that “Representative Stahl Hamilton purposely removed the Bibles from their locations within the Members’ Lounge on three separate occasions;” that “Representative Stahl Hamilton purposely concealed the Bibles in a manner that was disrespectful to other Members;” that “Representative Stahl Hamilton did not fully apologize for her conduct;” and that “Representative Stahl Hamilton’s repeated actions offended some Members of the House, violated the inherent obligation to protect the integrity of the House, and caused the House to expend resources.”
Representative Stahl Hamilton did not appear at her hearing – as noted by the report: “Given the fact-intensive allegations in the Complaint, the Committee would have preferred to hear testimony from Representative Stahl Hamilton. Indeed, the Committee had prepared questions for Representative Stahl Hamilton relevant to this investigation.”
The five-Member committee (comprised of Representatives Joseph Chaplik, Travis Grantham, Gail Griffin, Christopher Mathis, and Jennifer Longdon) found “that the evidence sufficiently supports a conclusion that Representative Stahl Hamilton’s repeated behavior, taken as a whole, constitutes disorderly behavior in violation of Rule 1 of the Arizona House of Representatives.” The Committee did not stipulate a specific punishment to accompany its findings, but left that decision up to the entire chamber, stating, “Based on this finding, and because Representative Stahl Hamilton’s violation of Rule 1 involves House property and took place on House property, the Committee deems it appropriate for the House as a whole to decide what disciplinary measures, if any, should be taken.”
The finding by the Committee, “that Representative Stahl Hamilton did violate Rule 1,” was unanimous.
It will now be up to House Speaker Ben Toma and the entire chamber to decide which appropriate consequence, if any, fits Representative Stahl Hamilton’s actions.
This process involving Representative Stahl Hamilton is the second of the legislative session for the Arizona House. The first occurred with former Representative Liz Harris, a Republican, who was expelled by a vote of the full chamber after the conclusion of the Ethics Committee’s deliberations.
Daniel Stefanski is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
