by Ethan Faverino | May 17, 2026 | Economy, News
By Ethan Faverino |
Arizona continues to experience relatively slower inflation than much of the nation, according to a new analysis from the Common Sense Institute (CSI) examining the latest U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for April 2026.
The Phoenix metro area CPI rose 3% year-over-year in April, up from 1.7% in February. While this marks an acceleration, it remains well below the national rate, which increased from 2.4% to 3.8% over the same period.
The uptick in both local and national figures was driven primarily by surging energy prices amid fallout from the conflict with Iran.
In the Phoenix Metro area, energy costs climbed 22.9% year-over-year, outpacing the national increase of 17.5%. Stripping out this volatile category reveals significantly more moderate underlying price pressures: Phoenix inflation excluding energy stood at 1.7% (down from 1.9% in February), compared to 2.8% nationally (up from 2.6%).
Since April 2019, consumer prices in the Phoenix metro area have risen 34.6%, resulting in an estimated additional $1,647 in monthly costs for a typical Arizona household. Nationally, prices have increased 30.2% over the same seven-year period. In a typical seven-year span, cumulative inflation would be expected to total closer to 14.9%.
More recently, however, Phoenix inflation has tracked below the Federal Reserve’s 2% annual benchmark. Cumulative inflation in the metro area since April 2024 stands at just 3.4%, below the roughly 4% that would align with steady 2% annual growth.
Among the 23 metro areas tracked by the CPI, Phoenix recorded the 8th slowest year-over-year inflation rate in April. For the 14 regions that reported data, it posted the 2nd slowest. A key contributor is the shelter category, where Phoenix inflation measured just 0.8% year-over-year — substantially lower than the national figure of 3.3%.
While headline CPI figures are conventionally used as a proxy for inflation, CSI noted that the metric measures a fixed basket of goods and can be heavily influenced by volatile components like energy.
The recent national spike to 3.8% is largely attributable to relative price increases in energy rather than broad-based inflationary pressure. Core inflation (excluding energy) remains meaningfully lower, though national prices have not returned sustainably to the 2% target.
Sustained inflation above 2% since 2021 reflects structural challenges, including elevated federal deficits. National inflation trends have historically followed federal deficits patterns with a 12 to 24-month lag, and persistent high deficits — averaging $2.2 trillion annually from 2020 to 2024 — continue to complicate efforts to achieve price stability through monetary policy alone.
The annualized federal deficit for early 2026 remains at $2.2 trillion.
Ethan Faverino is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
by Matthew Holloway | May 15, 2026 | Economy, News
By Matthew Holloway |
The Consumer Price Index rose to 3.81 percent year-over-year in April, marking the highest annual inflation rate in nearly three years, according to the latest Monthly Inflation Update released Tuesday by Republicans on the Joint Economic Committee (JEC).
According to the report, headline Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased from 3.26 percent in March to 3.81 percent in April. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose to 2.75 percent year-over-year in April, up from 2.60 percent in March.
April’s increase marked the highest annual headline inflation rate reported since mid-2023, reversing several months of comparatively slower price growth.
The JEC reported that energy prices experienced the sharpest annual increase among major categories, with energy inflation reaching 17.87 percent year-over-year in April, representing a 21.61 percentage point increase compared to April 2025.
Food prices also increased year-over-year. According to the report, food inflation reached 3.18 percent in April, 0.42 percentage points higher than the same period last year.
Regionally, inflation rose across all major areas of the country between March and April. The Northeast recorded the highest inflation rate at 4.4 percent, followed by the Midwest at 4.1 percent and the South at 3.6 percent. The West recorded the lowest regional inflation rate at 3.5 percent.
While the West recorded the nation’s lowest regional inflation rate, the 3.5 percent increase still remained above the Federal Reserve’s long-term two percent inflation target. Declining real wages indicate that inflation continued to outpace earnings growth for many workers during the month, reducing purchasing power despite nominal wage increases.
The JEC’s Monthly Inflation Update compiles and analyzes federal inflation data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The report also found that inflation-adjusted earnings declined during the month.
According to the JEC, real average weekly earnings for all employees decreased by 0.19 percent from March to April. Real average hourly earnings declined by 0.53 percent year-over-year, representing a 0.44 percentage point decrease compared to April 2025.
Matthew Holloway is a senior reporter for AZ Free News. Follow him on X for his latest stories, or email tips to Matthew@azfreenews.com.
by Ethan Faverino | May 4, 2026 | Economy, News
By Ethan Faverino |
The Joint Economic Committee released its Monthly Expenditures Update for March 2026 alongside the advance estimate for first-quarter 2026 Gross Domestic Product (GDP), painting a picture of an economy experiencing above-target inflation alongside continued, albeit moderating, real consumption growth and accelerating nominal activity.
From February to March 2026, headline Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index inflation accelerated to 0.66%, up from 0.38% the prior month.
Core PCE inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.29% compared to 0.37% (durable goods +0.42%; nondurable goods +1.98%), while services inflation stood at 0.32%. Gasoline and other energy goods posted a sharp 19.23% month-over-month rise.
Real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) advanced 0.24% ($39.57 billion), in the period. Real spending on goods rose 0.55% ($31.34 billion), led by durable goods (+0.94% or $20.12 billion), while services spending increased a more modest 0.10% ($10.63 billion). The nominal personal savings rate declined 0.3 percentage points to 3.6%.
On the income side, headline personal income grew 0.56% ($149.22 billion). However, real disposable personal income per capita edged down 0.07%, indicating that after-tax income growth lagged behind price increases.
Year-over-year measures showed headline PCE inflation at 3.50% in March 2026 compared to March 2025—well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target—while core PCE inflation registered 3.20%. Both figures accelerated from the prior year’s pace.
GDP Advance Estimate
In its Q1 2026 GDP Advance Estimate the Committee reported that real GDP increased at a 1.99% annualized rate from the fourth quarter of 2025. Current-dollar GDP rose 5.64% annualized, or $433.731 billion, reaching $31.856 trillion. The GDP deflator contributed approximately 3.6 percentage points to nominal growth.
Consumer spending contributed 1.1 percentage points to real GDP growth, while nonresidential fixed investment provided a strong 1.4 percentage point boost. Government spending added 0.7 points, and private inventories contributed 0.4 points. Net exports subtracted 1.3 points, and residential investment was a slight drag at -0.3 points.
Category highlights (Nominal PCE Levels, March 2026)
- Housing and utilities: $3,904.5 billion (17.86% of total)
- Health care: $3,741.3 billion (17.11%)
- Financial services and insurance: $1,822.6 billion (8.34%)
- Food and beverages: $1,547.8 billion (7.08%)
- Food services and accommodations: $1,526.4 billion (6.98%)
Notable year-over-year nominal increases included financial services and insurance (+10.46%), health care (+8.02%), and transportation services (+9.53%). Gasoline and other energy goods rose sharply both month-over-month (+19.23%) and year-over-year (20.97%).
Ethan Faverino is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
by Matthew Holloway | Apr 2, 2026 | Economy, News
By Matthew Holloway |
Arizona households are carrying higher debt, seeing declining credit scores, and falling behind on payments at rates above the national average, according to a new analysis from the Common Sense Institute of Arizona (CSI).
The report, which examines credit data and financial trends, found that Arizona’s average credit score dropped by seven points in 2025, placing the state 30th nationally with an average score of 666.
The findings also show long-term growth in household debt. Since 2003, per capita debt in Arizona has increased by 129%, reaching approximately $74,000—one of the largest increases among U.S. states.
Across major categories, Arizona borrowers carry higher balances than the national average. Mortgage debt per capita is 22% higher, while auto loan balances are 7% higher and credit card debt is 8% higher, according to the report.
Missed payments are also more common in Arizona. The report found higher delinquency rates at multiple stages, including accounts 30, 60, and 90 days past due, as well as higher levels of derogatory marks on credit histories compared to national benchmarks.
The analysis also includes a measure of “Household Liquidity Resilience” that assesses households’ ability to withstand financial stress. By that measure, Arizona households are estimated to be 23% less prepared for financial disruptions than the national average. The report identifies the source of this unreadiness emerging from “generally higher than average debt, higher change of delinquency, and a lower cash cushion than the average U.S. household.”
Zach Milne, senior economist at CSI, said the data reflects ongoing financial strain tied to rising costs and borrowing conditions.
“Arizona households are facing residual financial pressure from post-pandemic inflation on top of higher borrowing costs, which continue to strain budgets,” Milne said. “Declining credit scores, rising delinquency rates, and above-average debt levels all point to broader affordability challenges across the state.”
He added, “As households absorb higher costs for housing and other essential expenses, many are becoming more vulnerable to financial shocks and less financially resilient.”
The report compares Arizona’s credit and debt trends to national data, highlighting differences in borrowing levels, repayment patterns, and financial stability indicators.
Matthew Holloway is a senior reporter for AZ Free News. Follow him on X for his latest stories, or email tips to Matthew@azfreenews.com.
by Matthew Holloway | Mar 15, 2026 | Economy, News
By Matthew Holloway |
Inflation rose slightly in February, with the Consumer Price Index reaching 2.41 percent year over year, according to the latest monthly inflation update released Wednesday by the Joint Economic Committee.
The committee’s report found that CPI-U inflation increased from 2.39 percent in January to 2.41 percent in February. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, declined slightly from 2.50 percent in January to 2.46 percent in February. The Federal Reserve targets inflation of roughly 2 percent over the long term, making CPI readings near that level a key benchmark for policymakers.
Economists often monitor both measures when assessing inflation trends. Headline CPI reflects the full range of consumer price changes, including food and fuel, while core CPI removes those categories because they can fluctuate sharply from month to month due to factors such as commodity markets and weather-related supply disruptions.
The update noted that the figures do not include potential increases in energy prices that could result from ongoing military activity in the Middle East.
Food prices continued to rise faster than overall inflation. Year-over-year food price inflation reached 3.06 percent, an increase of 0.45 percentage points compared with the previous month.
Energy prices also increased, with year-over-year energy inflation reaching 0.48 percent, up 0.65 percentage points from the prior reading. Energy prices can shift quickly due to changes in global supply, geopolitical developments, and seasonal demand.
Regionally, inflation rates varied across the country but declined from January to February in each region measured by the report. Inflation was highest in the Midwest at 2.8 percent, followed by the Northeast and West at 2.7 percent each, while the South recorded the lowest rate at 1.8 percent.
Regional CPI comparisons reflect differences in housing costs, transportation expenses, energy prices, and local economic conditions that influence consumer spending patterns across the country.
The report also found that wages increased when adjusted for inflation.
Real weekly earnings for all employees rose 1.67 percent year over year, representing a 0.98 percentage point increase from the previous reading. Real hourly earnings increased 1.42 percent year over year, a 0.16 percentage point increase.
The Consumer Price Index, compiled by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, tracks price changes across a basket of goods and services commonly purchased by households, including housing, food, transportation, medical care, and other everyday expenses.
The index is widely used by policymakers, businesses, and economists to measure inflation trends, evaluate purchasing power, and guide economic policy decisions.
Arizona residents experience many of the same price trends reflected in national CPI data, including changes in food, energy, and consumer goods prices that affect household budgets across the state.
The full February inflation report is available from the Joint Economic Committee here.
Matthew Holloway is a senior reporter for AZ Free News. Follow him on X for his latest stories, or email tips to Matthew@azfreenews.com.
