Inflation cooled for the Phoenix metro area last month, and expenditures went up.
The Common Sense Institute (CSI) reported that Phoenix metro’s Consumer Price Index rose 2.8% year-over-year in June, a slight reduction from a 3% reading in April. Energy prices dropped by more than 6% in a single month, attributed to easing tensions with Iran.
CSI noted that Arizona’s growth rate was slower than the rest of the nation. Arizona’s home prices have also cooled while home prices climb nationally.
Over the past seven years, prices have increased in the Phoenix metro area by more than 33%. The typical household pays nearly $1,700 more a month on average for its regular expenditures than they did in the last year before the pandemic hit: around $5,200 to nearly $6,900. CSI estimated that the average Phoenix metro household would have been paying just $600 more compared to 2019 if inflation had followed a steady 2% increase rate these past seven years.
From the national perspective, the Joint Economic Committee (JEC) reported that headline personal consumption expenditure price index inflation rose to nearly 4% from June 2025 to last month. The Federal Reserve’s target for that metric is 2%. Core personal consumption expenditure price index inflation was reported to be nearing 3.3%.
Services inflation rose by 0.13% and goods inflation dropped by 0.63%.
Real personal consumption expenditures increased by $68 billion, or 0.4%. Real personal consumption expenditures on all services increased by $28 billion, or 0.26%, and real personal consumption expenditures on all goods increased by $42 billion, or 0.73%.
The JEC reported that the nominal personal savings rate declined by 0.1% to 2.7%. Headline personal income increased by $55 billion, or 0.2%, and real disposable income per capita increased by nearly 0.3%.
U.S. News & World Report ranked Arizona fourth for economy in its latest Best States annual report for 2026. This marked the highest ranking achieved by the state this past year among all scorecard metrics. The state ranked high for business environment, seventh; growth, seventh; and employment, 17th.
Arizona also ranked 33rd for fiscal stability and 42nd for opportunity: 28th for economic opportunity, 32nd for equality, 35th for affordability, 30th for long-term fiscal stability, and 33rd for short term fiscal stability.
All metric rankings tallied, Arizona came in 34th overall.
Elsewhere, Arizona ranked 21st for healthcare, 23rd for infrastructure, 29th for crime and corrections, 41st for natural environment, and 43rd for education.
The Arizona Commerce Authority issued a new report this month indicating that Arizona is exceeding its goals for the 2026 fiscal year: more than 26,000 potential new jobs added (131% of goal), nearly $110 billion in capital expenditures (2,749% of goal), and more than $81,000 in wages (137% of goal).
Yet, Arizona’s unemployment rate has been outpacing job growth. The state was one of seven states to experience an increase in unemployment, and its rate recently hit a high of 4.9%, numbers not seen since the pandemic. Labor force participation also fell to a total nearing a 10-year low.
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The annual inflation rate in the Phoenix metropolitan area slowed to 2.8% in June, remaining below the national rate as falling energy prices and comparatively modest shelter-cost growth eased pressure on the region’s Consumer Price Index (CPI).
The Phoenix-area CPI increased 2.8% during the 12 months ending in June, down from 3% in April, according to a new Common Sense Institute (CSI) analysis of federal inflation data. National consumer prices increased 3.5% over the same annual period.
CSI attributed much of the local decline to energy prices, which fell 6.4% during June after increasing 26.5% between February and May. The earlier increase helped drive Phoenix’s annual inflation rate from 1.7% in February to 3% in April, according to CSI.
Inflation has slowed but prices are still much higher than they were five years ago.
Since June 2019, prices in the Phoenix metro have increased 33.4%, adding an estimated $1,673 per month to the budget of a typical Arizona household.
— Common Sense Institute Arizona (@CSInstituteAZ) July 15, 2026
Energy remained more expensive than it was one year earlier. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that Phoenix-area energy prices were up 14.1% year-over-year in June, while gasoline prices were 26.2% higher. The local energy index declined 4.4% over the two-month period ending in June, including a 10.7% decrease in gasoline prices.
Nationally, the CPI declined 0.4% from May to June on a seasonally adjusted basis, marking the largest monthly decrease since April 2020, according to the BLS national inflation report. The national energy index fell 5.7% during June, including a 9.7% decline in gasoline prices. National consumer prices remained 3.5% higher than one year earlier, while energy prices were up 15.7%.
Shelter costs also helped keep Phoenix inflation below the national rate. Shelter prices increased 1.4% year-over-year in the Phoenix area, compared with 3.3% nationally. CSI said home prices have cooled in Arizona during the past two years while national home prices continued to increase, reducing shelter’s contribution to Phoenix-area inflation.
CSI said the gap between Phoenix and national shelter inflation has narrowed during the past six months as housing markets elsewhere began to cool. When shelter costs are excluded, CPI growth in Phoenix and across the country is nearly identical, according to CSI.
Phoenix-area food prices increased 2.2% year-over-year in June. The local index excluding food and energy rose 2%, while the comparable national index increased 2.6%. CSI separately calculated that the Phoenix index for all items excluding energy increased 2% from the previous year, up from 1.7% in April.
Among the 23 metropolitan areas compared by CSI using the latest available BLS data, Phoenix recorded the fifth-slowest year-over-year inflation rate. The region had posted the fourth-slowest rate among the 14 metropolitan areas reporting April figures.
The recent slowdown follows several years of substantial price increases. CSI calculated that Phoenix-area prices have risen 33.4% since June 2019, compared with a 30.3% national increase. According to the institute, the increase is “adding approximately $1,673 in monthly expenses to the average Arizona household.”
From June 2024 through June 2026, cumulative Phoenix-area inflation was 3%, below the approximately 4% increase that would result from prices growing steadily at an annual rate of 2%, according to CSI.
CSI cautioned that changes in individual categories can have an outsized effect on the headline CPI because the index is a weighted average of price movements across goods and services. CSI identified volatile energy prices as a significant driver of both the local and national figures and estimated that alternative measures place the Phoenix area’s underlying inflation rate closer to 2% than the 2.8% headline figure.
Consumer prices declined on a month-to-month basis in June while annual inflation continued to moderate, according to the Joint Economic Committee’s latest Monthly Inflation Update.
The report found that the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), the government’s primary measure of inflation, fell 0.42% from May to June. On an annual basis, consumer prices were 3.53% higher than in June 2025, down from the 4.25% year-over-year inflation rate recorded in May.
Core inflation, which excludes the more volatile food and energy categories, also eased. Core CPI declined 0.02% during June and increased 2.59% over the past 12 months, marking a slowdown from the previous month’s annual rate of 2.85%.
Energy prices were a major factor in the monthly decline. The energy index fell 5.71% in June after increasing 3.88% in May. Despite the monthly decrease, energy prices remained 15.70% higher than a year ago.
Food prices continued to rise modestly, increasing 0.21% during the month and 3.01% over the past year.
Inflation continued to vary across the country. The Northeast recorded the highest annual headline inflation rate at 4.3%, followed by the Midwest at 3.8%. The South and West each posted annual inflation rates of 3.2%
The June report also showed that workers experienced modest gains in purchasing power as inflation-adjusted wages increased. Real average weekly earnings for all private-sector employees rose 0.77% from May, while real average hourly earnings increased 0.80%.
For production and nonsupervisory employees, real average weekly earnings increased 0.55% and real average hourly earnings rose 0.81%.
The Joint Economic Committee noted that “real” earnings reflect wages after adjusting for inflation making them a better indicator of workers’ purchasing power. Weekly earnings are considered a more comprehensive measure of income because they account for changes in both hourly pay and hours worked.
The report also showed inflation came in below expectations. According to forecasts from the Cleveland Federal Reserve, economists had projected monthly headline inflation of a 0.06% decline and annual inflation of 3.92%. Instead, headline CPI fell 0.42% in June and the annual rate registered 3.53%, indicating inflation cooled more than anticipated.
Compared with June 2025, annual inflation remained elevated but continued its gradual moderation. Headline inflation stood at 3.53%, food inflation at 3.01%, core inflation at 2.59%, and energy prices remained the fastest-growing component, rising 15.70% over the past year despite their sharp monthly decline.
Ethan Faverino is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
Retail sales increased for the seventh consecutive month in April, highlighting the resilience of American consumers despite rising gas prices and elevated inflation.
According to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, total retail sales excluding automobile dealers and gas stations increased 0.34% seasonally adjusted from March and rose 5.73% unadjusted from April of 2025. That follows gains of 0.4% month-over-month and 6.59% year-over-year in March.
“Retail sales continued to grow in April despite higher gas prices driven by the ongoing conflict in Iran, cautious consumer sentiment and the persistent concerns about sustained inflation,” stated NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay.
Core retail sales, which also exclude restaurants, posted a smilier 0.34% month-over-month gain and climbed 5.53% year-over-year. For the first four months of 2026, total sales were up 6.07% year-over-year, while core sales rose 5.99%.
Sales growth was broad-based, rising in eight of nine major categories on a yearly basis and in all but one category on a monthly basis. Clothing and accessories stores led the way with a 0.59% month-over-month increase and a strong 9.75% year-over-year gain.
Sporting goods, hobby, music and book stores advanced 0.12% month-over-month and 8.55% year-over-year, while health and personal care stores rose 0.45% and 8.42% respectively. Digital products, including electronic books and games, posted the strongest monthly gain at 1.11% and climbed 8.09% annually.
Other categories showing positive momentum included general merchandise stores (up 0.15% month-over-month and 6.19% year-over-year), electronics and appliance stores (up 0.16% and 4.03%), and grocery and beverage stores (up 0.36% and 3.21%).
Furniture and homes furnishings stores saw a slight 0.06% monthly decline but still posted a 2.58% annual increase. Building and garden supply stores edged up 0.009% for the month but were down 2.74% from the prior year.
“Spending on household priorities remains solid, supported by a steady labor market, wage growth and a significant influx of cash from tax refunds,” added Shay. “While consumers are mindful on costs, retailers are working hard to keep everyday goods affordable for American families.”
Ethan Faverino is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
The Joint Economic Committee (JEC) released an update Thursday showing inflation remained above the Federal Reserve’s target in April while consumer spending increased and personal savings declined.
According to the JEC’s Monthly Expenditures Update, the headline personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 0.40% from March to April, while core PCE inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 0.24%. The annual inflation rate from April 2025 to April 2026 measured 3.77% for headline PCE and 3.29% for core PCE, both exceeding the Federal Reserve’s stated 2% inflation target.
The PCE index is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure and tracks changes in prices paid by consumers for goods and services.
The JEC reported that spending increased during the same period while savings declined. Real personal consumption expenditures increased by 0.11%, representing approximately $18.08 billion in additional spending. Real spending on services increased 0.19%, or $21.47 billion, while real spending on goods rose 0.08%, or $4.7 billion. At the same time, the nominal personal savings rate declined by 0.6 percentage points to 2.6%.
Y/Y, headline PCE price index inflation was 3.77%, which is higher than the Federal Reserve’s target of 2% & core PCE price index inflation was 3.29%. M/M, headline personal income remained unchanged, or $19 million, while real disposable personal income per capita decreased by…
— Joint Economic Committee Republicans (@JECRepublicans) May 28, 2026
According to the committee’s update, headline personal income remained effectively unchanged month-over-month, increasing by approximately $19 million, while real disposable personal income per capita decreased by 0.50%. The report stated that after-tax income increased more slowly than consumer prices during the month.
The figures align with data released Thursday by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), which reported increases in both consumer spending and inflation during April. According to the BEA, personal income increased by $210.1 billion, or 0.8%, while disposable personal income increased by $189.4 billion, or 0.8%. Personal consumption expenditures increased $47.8 billion, or 0.2%.
The BEA reported that prices for personal consumption expenditures increased 0.4% month-over-month and 3.8% annually, while core PCE prices increased 0.2% during April and 3.3% over the previous twelve months.
The JEC also released its Gross Domestic Product Update for the second estimate of first-quarter 2026 economic activity.
According to the committee, real gross domestic product increased 1.62% from the fourth quarter of 2025 to the first quarter of 2026. Current-dollar GDP increased 5.15%, or approximately $396.9 billion, bringing the total size of the U.S. economy to $31.819 trillion.
JEC Chairman Rep. David Schweikert (R-AZ01), who is also running for governor of Arizona, discussed affordability and inflation during a segment with KTAR host Mike Broomhead, describing what he characterized as the continuing effects of “Biden inflation” on Arizona households.
“For people in Arizona, for a whole segment of our working middle class — you know, hardworking population — they’re poorer today than they were five years ago,” Schweikert said. “We were one of the epicenters of Biden inflation. Then you actually do policies from particularly the governor’s office of not recruiting new businesses here to compete for your willingness to work. So affordability — because our wages haven’t gone up — we’re now 45th in affordability. That’s miserable. I mean how many people can afford a house right now?”
Arizona’s working middle class is poorer today than five years ago. Wages are flat, housing is out of reach, and families are trying to make the mortgage and car payment.
If we want affordability, we need jobs that force businesses to compete for Arizona workers again. pic.twitter.com/lU9c983UUT
— David Schweikert (@DavidSchweikert) May 27, 2026
In a post to X on Thursday, he wrote, “If we’re serious about affordability, the first thing we do is raise wages by bringing employers here that have to compete for Arizona workers.”
The committee’s GDP update reflected the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ second estimate for first-quarter economic growth. The full Joint Economic Committee Monthly Expenditures Update and GDP Update are available through the committee’s website.
