Congress’s Joint Economic Committee (JEC) warned that the Biden administration’s economic policies have caused an unsustainable debt crisis and historic inflation.
This assessment was announced formally earlier this week by JEC Vice Chairman and Congressman for Arizona’s first district, David Schweikert, through the 160-page Republican Response to the Council of Economic Advisers’ 2024 Economic Report of the President.
Schweikert stated in a press release that 2024 serves as a “critical juncture” for the nation’s fiscal health, one that transcends political parties.
“The challenge before us is neither Republican nor Democrat — it is our moral obligation to ensure American families aren’t left behind. Congress holds the keys to determine which path we choose,” said Schweikert. “We can either behave like adults and choose the path of fiscal responsibility or continue our partisan gamesmanship that will put the American dream further out of reach for future generations.”
Schweikert said that the problems and proposed solutions put forth by the JEC report were inherently bipartisan, focusing on common-ground economy boosters like a healthier population and secure social safety net programs.
“Those of us on the Republican side, we built a report that offered actual moral, great economic solutions instead of the election year rhetoric.”
— Joint Economic Committee Republicans (@JECRepublicans) June 21, 2024
The JEC assessed that the Biden administration’s demand-side policies financed by increased borrowing have placed unsustainable pressure on constrained supply. As a result, JEC predicted that debt-to-GDP would grow from 99 percent to 116 percent by 2034, with interest costs rising. JEC noted that the labor force participation rates haven’t recovered to prepandemic levels; historic mortgage payments for new homebuyers, the highest in 30 years; constraints on budding American industries due to new restrictions on trade; and the cost of clean energy subsidies amounting to $1.2 trillion over 10 years, despite emissions from electricity production declining.
Further exacerbation of the economy comes from an aging population, declining fertility rates, and decreased prime-age labor force participation among men, per the JEC. The aging population is anticipated to drive Social Security spending to 6 percent of GDP by 2035, an increase from the present 5.2 percent and the 1970s at 3.1 percent, though no major expansions have occurred in over 20 years. The JEC reported that one in nine prime-age men remain out of the labor force; if just 25 percent of those entered, the economy would grow by $215 billion.
JEC disputed the Biden administration’s belief that increased taxes of wealthier individuals would amount to their desired revenue, a dwarfed amount of around 1.1 to 2 percent of GDP compared to future deficits. JEC stressed that only reduction in spending would improve fiscal consolidation.
Another demographic with an outsized impact on the economy, according to the JEC, is the rapid increase in obesity. Excess medical expenditures are anticipated to amount to over $9 trillion, as well as federal government spending of over $4 trillion within the next decade. Labor productivity and supply reductions impacted by obesity are projected to cost nearly $3 trillion and $12 trillion, respectively.
As for a positive solution to the nation’s current and looming fiscal woes, JEC indicated that artificial intelligence could grow the economy and improve government efficiency.
JEC also issued a lengthy assessment of the Congressional Budget Office’s revised budget and economic projections for the next decade. This included a $400 billion increase in projected FY2024 deficit, with about 80 percent of the increase coming from President Joe Biden’s student loan forgiveness, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation failing to recover payments from 2023 bank failures quickly, new legislation, and higher than expected Medicaid outlays.
CBO recently released its updated budget and economic projections for 2024-2034 from the original forecast in February 2024. Below are some key takeaways from the revised estimates 🧵
— Joint Economic Committee Republicans (@JECRepublicans) June 19, 2024
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One Arizona Republican lawmaker is speaking out against Democrats’ economic policies.
Senate President Pro Tempore T.J. Shope recently addressed the economic pains being felt by his constituents – as well as many Arizonans around the state. He singled out President Joe Biden and attributed the support of Democrat state legislators for aiding in the economic ailments of everyday Americans.
Shope wrote, “Reckless policies implemented by Joe Biden and supported by Democrat lawmakers have caused the inflation nightmare currently costing you more of your hard earned dollars. Americans are now paying nearly $1,100 more each month compared with just three years ago. If you were hoping to buy a house soon, don’t expect relief in the near future, as 30- year mortgage rates are sitting above 7%, the highest level in 20 years, and the feds indicated this week they may not cut rates in 2024 while inflation remains high.”
The state senator added, “Gas prices are surpassing $4 per gallon in Arizona, when they were just $2.50 at this time four years ago. Our citizens are spending 11% of their disposable income on food, which is the highest level in more than three decades. More and more working class citizens are relying on credit cards to cope with rising costs, as one in three consumers are currently maxing them out. Senate Republicans remain focused on easing these financial burdens, despite the out of touch priorities Biden, Hobbs, and Democrat lawmakers are pushing.”
A recent Gallup Economy and Personal Finance Poll showed that only 38% of respondents had “a great deal” or “a fair amount” of President Biden “to do or recommend the right thing for the economy.” This approval rating (or lack thereof) for Biden has plummeted since the start of his presidency in 2021, when he began his term at 57% for this specific question. Just 34% of independents have confidence in the 46th President’s ability to turn the economy around, according to the poll.
During a recent campaign appearance, former President Donald J. Trump again reiterated that he would reignite the American economy if voters entrusted him with the keys to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. He said, “Upon taking office, I will impose an immediate moratorium on all new spending, grants, and giveaways under Joe Biden’s mammoth socialist bills like the so-called Inflation Reduction Act. We are going to stop the Biden spending spree. We are going to halt his inflation death spiral. We are going to terminate his Green New Scam. We are going to end his war on American energy. And we are going to drill, baby, drill.”
Daniel Stefanski is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
Americans consistently voice their disapproval on the state of the economy in recent polls, largely because of the stratosphericcost of living. But apologists for the Biden administration point to the low unemployment rate of 3.9% in April as proof of the economy’s strength.
Yet this is a hollow talking point since the real unemployment rate is likely between 6.5 and 7.7%.
The unemployment rate is the percentage of people in the labor force who don’t have a job. That means the unemployment rate can change if either the number of people unemployed or the total size of the labor force changes.
The shocking reality is that somewhere between 4.7 million and 7 million people who aren’t working today are not included when calculating the unemployment rate. That artificially reduces the figure.
The reason these millions of Americans are uncounted began with the events of 2020.
When the government instituted draconian lockdowns across most of the economy in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, over 17 million people became unemployed, and another 8 million people immediately left the labor force.
As the economy slowly reopened across the country, millions of people began returning to work. That, of course, drove down the unemployment rate by reducing the number of unemployed people. Some of those who left the labor force also returned and eventually found jobs, further reducing the unemployment rate.
But there were also millions who left the labor market entirely and never returned. As such, they were no longer counted among the unemployed nor in the labor force. This pushed the unemployment rate down even more.
If those millions of people were to suddenly look for work again, it would greatly increase the labor force, but it would also increase the unemployment rate, at least until those job-seekers found work.
Official government data point to just how many workers are missing from the labor market today. Several metrics show a large gap between their current reading and their pre-pandemic trends. These include the employment level, the number of non-farm payrolls, the employment-to-population ratio and those not in the labor force.
The gap is between 4.7 million and 7 million people, all of whom are not working but are excluded from the unemployment rolls. If they were still counted as jobless members of the labor force, the unemployment rate would jump to between 6.5% and 7.7%.
The latter figure is almost twice the official unemployment rate. Even 6.5% would represent a significant spike.
Looking only at the unemployment rate can give a distorted view of the labor market. If unemployed people are looking for work and then get jobs, that causes the unemployment rate to fall. But, if those same people give up looking for work and leave the labor force, it has precisely the same effect on this metric.
Using additional data provides a better gauge of the labor market’s health and workers’ jobs satisfaction. Real, or inflation-adjusted, earnings are a good example—and they have plummeted.
While the average American worker’s weekly paycheck has increased $147 from January 2021 through April 2024, those earnings buy $47 less because prices have risen so much faster than incomes.
This has caused many Americans to work extra hours or pick up a second job. Among renters, more than one-fifth of them have taken on another job in order to pay their rent on time in the last few months.
That’s noteworthy because whenever someone is hired, whether it’s that person’s first or fourth job, it’s still counted as an additional payroll in the government’s monthly job statistics. With millions of Americans picking up additional work to try and make ends meet for their families, the number of jobs has risen much faster than the number of people employed.
Simply touting a low unemployment rate provides a view of the labor market that is at best incomplete and at worst deceptive. A comprehensive view of economic conditions for the working class shows why they are so unhappy: inflation has made it impossible for them to get ahead, no matter how many jobs they work.
E.J. Antoni is a contributor to the Daily Caller News Foundation, public finance economist and the Richard F. Aster Fellow at The Heritage Foundation, and a senior fellow at the Committee to Unleash Prosperity.
Joe Biden loves to give away money, especially if it’s not his own. He has spent trillions of dollars for political benefit that didn’t need otherwise to be spent.
The recipients laud his compassion and generosity. Common Americans though are trapped in an inflationary spiral while our grandchildren face an unpayable bill.
Thus, in a recent presentation about his second attempt to forgive student loan debt, he actually bragged about the hundreds of billions it would cost. He twice mentioned the fact that many blacks would receive benefits.
He became so consumed in self-congratulation that he apparently lost awareness of how blatant his political pandering was. We know black voters are a key demographic in play in the upcoming election.
Biden’s sheer enthusiasm for spending again evidenced itself in his response to the Baltimore bridge collapse. His first reaction was to guarantee that the federal government would underwrite the entire cost of reconstruction. What a guy!
Neither offer made sense. Regarding the student loan debt, the Supreme Court had affirmed that the Constitution means what it says, that the power to initiate spending lies solely with Congress. Most public criticism focused on the obvious unfairness of the policy, how it would disadvantage those who had been responsible in favor of those who wished to renounce their legal obligations.
Biden’s bridge proposal was also nonsense. The bridge isn’t owned by the United States. There is no conceivable reason for the federal government to be deemed responsible for its repair. The bridge was demolished by a cargo ship, in an industry which insures heavily against such misfortunes. Other jurisdictions have also acknowledged partial responsibility.
Here’s the problem with the mindset that it’s okay to get involved with all these giveaways: we don’t have the money. We’re seriously in debt, with expenses vastly exceeding our income and no plan in place for repayment or even deficit reduction.
Biden is hardly the only politician who has deduced that spending other people’s money (OPM) can win elections. Even many Republicans, to their shame, support the spending juggernaut. The spenders are the moral equivalent of a wastrel with no money and no job, with bankruptcy looming, who continues to pick up tabs and buy pricey gifts with credit cards he has no intention of paying off.
Still, the spenders know that Americans have mostly normalized excessive spending even when unnecessary. So, Biden was able to propose a whopping $7.3 trillion budget for next year (up $500 billion in the last year alone) without provoking much outrage.
The $2 trillion spent on COVID relief accomplished nothing. It was mainly an excuse to push more money out the door. At least it was supposed to be temporary. Biden’s budget though would pocket the COVID bump and add yet more permanent spending, mostly on programs for “climate change” and other boondoggles. A $10 trillion budget by 2033 is projected.
What can’t go on forever won’t. Our present course is unsustainable. Income tax revenues are soaring, yet the debt continues to grow. We are using borrowed money to pay the debt interest, which has surpassed all budget items except entitlement programs.
How do we get out of this death spiral? The left’s favorite solution is to raise taxes. That doesn’t work. The historical record shows that tax increases put us further in the hole.
For example, the Obamacare tax increases raised $1.4 trillion but so hindered economic growth, according to the Congressional Budget Office, that the feds lost $3.8 trillion in revenues. In contrast, President Clinton signed the 1997 Republican tax and spending cuts. Four years of budget surpluses ensued.
It’s well known that reform of Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security is necessary for a balanced budget. Yet both parties are interested only in demagoguing the other if they catch them even considering the issue. If the politicians, including Donald Trump, continue to insist on prioritizing incumbent reelection, the only way out may be for the people to take matters into our own hands.
Anybody else interested in seriously revisiting the notion of amending the Constitution to mandate a balanced budget? Sure, it may (or may not) be difficult, but the consequence of doing nothing is surely worse.
Dr. Thomas Patterson, former Chairman of the Goldwater Institute, is a retired emergency physician. He served as an Arizona State senator for 10 years in the 1990s, and as Majority Leader from 93-96. He is the author of Arizona’s original charter schools bill.
Rep. David Schweikert (R-AZ-01) gave a brief rundown on the state of his constituents’ financial well-being under Biden before Congress on Tuesday.
Schweikert said that his district consists of some of the more well-off, educated, and entrepreneurial constituents in Arizona and the country. Yet, Schweikert says his more “prosperous” district has become poorer even when accounting for factors like wage growth.
“In my district, we’ve had the highest inflation in the continental United States. If you do not make 23.6 percent more money today than you did the day President Biden took office, you are poorer,” said Schweikert.
Want to understand why the public isn’t so bubbly about the economy?
If you live in the Phoenix-Scottsdale area and haven’t received a 23.6% pay increase since President Biden took office, you are poorer today.
Schweikert’s district spans a northeast section of Phoenix that encompasses Scottsdale, Paradise Valley Fountain Hills, Cave Creek, the Salt River and Fort McDowell Yavapai Nation reservations, and part of the Tonto National Forest.
The congressman went on to say that his fellow congressmen, dubbed “the clown show,” needed to have “an honest conversation” with constituents to acknowledge that they’ve grown poorer in recent years.
Arizona experienced the highest inflation rates since February 2021, only returning to a lower rate of 2.7 percent earlier this year, last seen March 2021.
Both Arizona State University business professor and Carey School director Mark Stapp and University of Arizona economics center director George Hammond toldCronkite News last year that the reason for Arizona having the highest inflation — mainly Phoenix — has to do with shelter costs.
Arizona’s high growth rate, coupled with the lack of supply, prompted a rapid rise in housing and rent prices.
In 2022, the state boasted the highest inflation rate in the nation. At the time, the Phoenix area had a 13 percent inflation, much higher than the nationwide inflation rate at the time of 8 percent.
Schweikert has repeatedly urged his colleagues to curb inflation, last month pointing out the effects of the record levels of spending under the Biden administration. Schweikert projected that the total deficit spending for the 2024 fiscal year will be higher than both the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and Office of Management and Budget (OMB) have projected.
Over the past three years, Arizona’s food banks have reported an unprecedented increase in the number of clientele they’re serving. The Arizona Food Bank Network reported earlier this year that it and its member food banks have served 14 percent more individuals in 2023 than in 2022 (a total of nearly 570,000 people a month), and 20 percent more than before the pandemic.
Conversely, the census reported that 12.5 percent of Arizonans were living in poverty in 2023 — the lowest rate in the past decade.
Schweikert hasn’t been the only one of Arizona’s congressmen to criticize federal leaders’ approach to handling inflation. Congressman Andy Biggs (R-AZ-05) remarked during President Joe Biden’s State of the Union last month that the overall inflation rate had hit nearly 20 percent since 2021, costing Arizonans nearly $13,000 in 2023 according to the Joint Economic Committee.
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