The latest poll released from Noble Predictive Insights has shown that, when compared to a pre-abortion ban reversal poll last year, public opinion on abortion in Arizona has remained largely the same, with the state’s apparent rejection of abortion on demand or “legal under any circumstances” remaining consistent with 60% of respondents. Of the voters opposed, 11% said abortion should be illegal regardless of circumstances while 49% said it should be permitted “only under certain circumstances.”
The poll, conducted by NPI from May 7-14, compared consistently with a similar February poll that predated the state Supreme Court ruling on the 1864 abortion ban re-activated by the reversal of the Roe v. Wade ruling. David Byler, NPI Chief of Research said in a press release, “When Roe was overturned, a significant chunk of the electorate moved left on abortion. But the 1864 law didn’t have a comparable effect in Arizona. The governor and legislature moved quickly on the 1864 law, so it didn’t change the landscape much.”
Among the voters who agreed that abortion is acceptable under “certain circumstances” the support for each reason broke down as:
Cases where the mother’s life was endangered (85%)
Instances of rape (82%)
Cases of incest (78%)
Babies at risk of severe complications (57%)
Within a certain timeframe (45%)
47% support within the first 6 weeks of pregnancy (within the first missed menstrual cycle/prior to a heartbeat).
43% support up to 15 weeks (roughly the end of the first trimester of pregnancy).
Support significantly drops off at 24 weeks or late-term with only 9% and again at 40 weeks or full-term at just 1%.
The pro-abortion politicos and activists who are working on a ballot initiative to enshrine a “right to abortion” up to any point before fetal viability (typically between 22-24 weeks) are likely to find the battle a contentious one with Arizonans evenly split according to NPI at 41% in favor and 41% against, fighting for the 18% of undecided voters.
As noted above, only 9% of those polled were comfortable with the 22-24 week timeframe with a majority of the support resting at the six and fifteen week marks. Arizona’s current statute places the limit at fifteen weeks already.
As reported by Tucson.com, the language of the initiative could prove even more problematic with the determining point of “fetal viability” being “in the good faith judgment of a treating health care professional, is necessary to protect the life or physical or mental health of the pregnant individual.”
The poll also indicated that abortion, though important, is hardly an Arizonan’s top priority. Twenty-two percent of registered voters in Arizona said that immigration was the most important of their top three issues, with abortion only amounting to 12%. Inflation weighed heavily with 19% of voters naming it as their top issue. Affordable housing accounted for 12% of the first choice with climate change, taxes, national defense, healthcare, education, the income gap, LGBT rights, and gun policies all coming it at single digits.
Simply put, Tuesday’s poll appears to indicate that the upcoming election in Arizona could be far more decisively driven by economic factors than abortion, an issue where Arizonans’ opinions seem to be largely locked-in.
GOP Senate candidates Kari Lake and Mark Lamb traded barbs this week over their views of one another’s handling of the 2022 election.
Lake and Lamb confronted one another during an online forum hosted by the Association of Mature American Citizens (AMAC) Action last week. The panel was not meant as a debate — Lake recently refused to do a formal debate with her primary opponent — but it ultimately turned into one.
Lamb accused Lake of “surrendering to the establishment,” and that her lack of public service experience made her unsuitable for office.
“It’s easy to talk about it if you’ve never served, it’s another thing to actually do it,” said Lamb. “I’ve actually had to make hard decisions. I’ve been in there when we’ve had to stand up against COVID and say we’re not doing the lockdowns, we’re not doing the mask mandates, we’re not doing the vaccines.”
Lake accused Lamb of cowardice for not using his law enforcement authority to pressure a change of outcome in the 2022 election, where she lost her gubernatorial race to Governor Katie Hobbs. Lake further claimed that law enforcement leaders submitted proof of election fraud to Lamb.
“I took every hit fighting for security in our elections. Sheriffs had the ability to fight, and the sheriff in Pinal County cowered, and he’s a total coward when it comes to election integrity,” said Lake.
Lamb speculated that Lake began calling him names because his assessment of her “touched a nerve.” The sheriff said that Lake was telling lies about his handling of mismanaged elections, clarifying that Pinal County fired those responsible for the underprinting of ballots, and established cameras and citizen monitors of drop boxes.
“Yes, we didn’t print enough ballots [in 2022] in Pinal County, and guess who didn’t complain about it because she won the primary? Kari didn’t. It didn’t matter to her until the general election,” said Lamb.
Lamb said that no one has been able to provide him with evidence of widespread fraud, but that he doubted President Joe Biden received as many votes as reported.
“I live in a world of evidence, what you can prove in court beyond a reasonable doubt,” said Lamb. “Any one of these people, including Kari, could’ve brought me the evidence that was actionable for me in court to do something about it.”
In a press release responding to Lake’s attacks, Lamb said Lake was a “bully” with a bold disrespect for the rule of law. Lamb disputed that Lake or any others presented to him any evidence indicating widespread material of fraud.
“Kari’s use of the word ‘coward’ is a slap in the face to every man and woman that upholds our laws and wears a badge and uniform,” said Lamb. “Her blatant disregard for the rule of law is not what Arizonans would expect someone running for the United States Senate to ever say, especially during what was supposed to be a civilized political discussion.”
Lamb added that Lake was lashing out at others for losing the election.
“I took an oath of office to support and defend the U.S. Constitution and uphold law and justice,” said Lamb. “I have to deal with facts, not opinions or feelings. I get it. Kari Lake is upset she lost her election. It’s time she takes some personal responsibility for losing an election she was supposed to win.”
The most recent polls show Lake trailing Democratic congressman Ruben Gallego in the race. Former President Donald Trump endorsed Lake.
AZ Free News is your #1 source for Arizona news and politics. You can send us news tips using this link.
Many Arizona government officials marked the solemn Memorial Day holiday.
Senator Sonny Borrelli said, “As we head into the Memorial Day weekend, I know many of you might be marking the occasion with barbecues, parties, trips to the lake, and maybe even parades. During this time, I hope you’ll also take a moment to reflect on brave men and women who’ve selflessly served our country and paid the ultimate price so that we can have the freedoms we enjoy today. I served as a Gunnery Sergeant with the U.S. Marines, and l’ve lost a number of brothers and sisters in the military, so this is a somber time for me. We always knew the dangers we would be facing, but we did the job anyways because we love our country.
Borrelli added, “Across the street from the Arizona Capitol at Wesley Bolin Plaza, you’ll find a variety of memorials honoring those who’ve served at Pearl Harbor, in Vietnam, in World Wars 1 and II, the Korean War, and Desert Storm. I encourage you to make a visit sometime. Freedom isn’t free. God bless the fallen.”
The Arizona House Democrats Caucus “X” account shared, “Today, we honor and remember those who made the ultimate sacrifice for our freedom. Don’t forget to reflect and appreciate what Memorial Day is truly for.”
— Arizona House Democrats (@AZHouseDems) May 27, 2024
Governor Katie Hobbs posted a video to pay tribute to the solemn holiday, writing, “On Memorial Day, we come together to memorialize the brave men and women who laid down their lives for us. Today, I encourage every Arizonan to reflect on their lives and think about how they give back to their communities in their honor.”
On Memorial Day, we come together to memorialize the brave men and women who laid down their lives for us.
Today, I encourage every Arizonan to reflect on their lives and think about how they give back to their communities in their honor. pic.twitter.com/UxZvuGnDmp
— Governor Katie Hobbs (@GovernorHobbs) May 27, 2024
The “X” account for the Office of the Arizona State Treasurer noted, “Arizona Treasurer Kimberly Yee honors and recognizes the brave men and women who made the ultimate sacrifice for our freedom.”
Arizona Treasurer Kimberly Yee honors and recognizes the brave men and women who made the ultimate sacrifice for our freedom. #MemorialDaypic.twitter.com/8NVDrCGTP4
— Office of the Arizona State Treasurer (@AZTreasury) May 27, 2024
The Arizona Senate Republicans Caucus’ “X” account said, “Freedom comes at a high cost, and we must continually protect it as Americans. Thank you to the heroes who sacrificed it all for our country.”
Freedom comes at a high cost, and we must continually protect it as Americans.
Attorney General Kris Mayes added, “Today we honor & mourn the brave souls who gave their lives defending our country – the ultimate sacrifice. May we reflect on what they fought for, today and every day.”
Today we honor & mourn the brave souls who gave their lives defending our country — the ultimate sacrifice. May we reflect on what they fought for, today and every day. 🇺🇸#MemorialDaypic.twitter.com/TErWFzkmmG
— AZ Attorney General Kris Mayes (@AZAGMayes) May 27, 2024
House Speaker Ben Toma stated, “Today, we honor and remember the brave Americans who made the ultimate sacrifice for our freedom. Let us keep them in our hearts and minds this Memorial Day. God bless the departed, their families, and those currently serving protecting our great country.”
Today, we honor and remember the brave Americans who made the ultimate sacrifice for our freedom. Let us keep them in our hearts and minds this #MemorialDay. God bless the departed, their families, and those currently serving protecting our great country.
Phoenix Mayor Kate Gallego said, “On this Memorial Day, we honor the fallen heroes who gave their lives for our nation. We will always remember their courage and dedication.”
On this #MemorialDay, we honor the fallen heroes who gave their lives for our nation. We will always remember their courage and dedication. pic.twitter.com/6I5JZVv5ks
The Maricopa County Attorney’s Office shared a video from County Attorney Rachel Mitchell, writing, “On Memorial Day, we reflect on the bravery of those who gave everything for our freedom. We think of their family and friends who’ve lost so much so our communities may thrive in peace. Today, we honor and remember them.”
On Memorial Day, we reflect on the bravery of those who gave everything for our freedom. We think of their family and friends who’ve lost so much so our communities may thrive in peace. Today, we honor and remember them. #HonorTheFallenpic.twitter.com/BTKwM5nQVe
— Maricopa County Attorney's Office (@marcoattorney) May 27, 2024
Peoria Mayor Jason Beck posted, “On this Memorial Day we remember and honor the brave men and women who lost their lives defending this great country. Let us never forget their courageous sacrifices in the pursuit of freedom.”
On this Memorial Day we remember and honor the brave men and women who lost their lives defending this great country. Let us never forget their courageous sacrifices in the pursuit of freedom. pic.twitter.com/1QICuUbumY
Former President Donald J. Trump continues to lead in the battleground state of Arizona, though his margin is not insurmountable over President Joe Biden for the November General Election.
Two polls were released last week, showing Trump over Biden in Arizona, whose eleven Electoral College votes will likely prove critical for the outcome of the 2024 Presidential Election.
The first poll was from CBS News / YouGov. This result had Trump beating Biden by five percent (52-47) in their second head-to-head match-up. This poll was conducted between May 10-16 with a sample of 1,214 registered voters across the state.
In this poll, Trump’s high-level support was stronger than Biden’s. Sixty-six percent of respondents indicated that their support for the former president was “very strong” compared to sixty-one percent for Biden. The economy (82%), inflation (78%), and the state of democracy (70%) were the top factors in the individuals’ selections for president, followed by the U.S. Mexico border (61%).
The second poll was from Noble Predictive Insights. This result had Trump beating Biden by three percent, with fifteen percent undecided. This poll was conducted between May 7-14 with a sample of 1,003 registered voters across the state.
The Noble poll also factored in other third-party candidates in the race, showing that Trump actually grew his lead over Biden in Arizona with individuals like Robert Kennedy, Jr. and Jill Stein competing for a share of the votes. With these other candidates in the race, the poll showed Trump beating Biden by seven percent (43-36). Kennedy, Jr. took eight percent, and Stein garnered two percent.
NPI Chief of Research David Byler said, “In 2020, Biden argued that he would be a ‘return to normalcy’ president – restoring competence and confidence to a nation in the throes of a pandemic and bitter partisan fighting. Biden’s problem: COVID-19 is gone, but normalcy isn’t back. Americans are worried about inflation and immigration – and, as a result, he’s lost ground in key swing states like Arizona.”
According to the Real Clear Polling Average, Trump enjoys a 4.6% lead over Biden with different pollsters showing his current margin of victory in Arizona between three and six percent over the past few months. On this day in history on Real Clear’s site, Biden was up four percent over Trump in Arizona in average polling in 2020, and Hillary Clinton enjoyed a one percent advantage in 2016. Trump ended up surpassing Clinton in 2016 to capture the state’s Electoral College votes, while he narrowly lost the state to Biden in 2020.
Daniel Stefanski is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
The Arizona Supreme Court has once again pumped the brakes on the state’s total abortion ban which dates back to pre-statehood days.
The order in the case, Planned Parenthood v. Hazelrigg, offered a temporary lifeboat for abortion supporters awaiting possible appeal. The court’s order, combined with the separate directive in Isaacson v. Arizona, means the abortion ban won’t go into effect until Sept. 26 of this year.
The Arizona Supreme Court rejected attempts to nullify the total abortion ban last month. That ruling, posted here, reflected the justices’ commitment to following their “limited constitutional role and duty to interpret the law as written” and deferring to the legislature.
“To date, our legislature has never affirmatively created a right to, or independently authorized, elective abortion,” ruled the court. “We defer, as we are constitutionally obligated to do, to the legislature’s judgment, which is accountable to, and thus reflects, the mutable will of our citizens.”
A version of the total abortion ban dated back to Arizona’s territorial days, to the final year of the Civil War: 1864. The law on the books, A.R.S. § 13-3603, prohibits abortions except when necessary to save the mother’s life.
The Supreme Court’s injunction only served to reduce the amount of time the ban would be enforced. The Arizona legislature passed a bill repealing the total abortion ban; Governor Katie Hobbes signed the bill earlier this month.
Arizona’s 1864 abortion ban is now officially where it belongs — in the past. https://t.co/sT7LETOuFn
Currently, state law banning abortions after 15 weeks remains in effect.
An activist group hopes to end all restrictions on abortion in the state by enshrining abortion as a constitutional right.
Arizona for Abortion Access is gunning to secure a constitutional amendment question on the November ballot. Most of the group’s funding has come from out of state. The activists have until July 3 to gather just over 383,900 valid signatures for ballot referral.
Leftist organizations and Democrats, including Hobbs, are in full support of making abortion a constitutional right.
In response to her signing the bill repealing the total abortion ban, Hobbs’ administration rolled out a website advocating for unfettered abortion access, painting those opposed to abortion as “radical extremists.”
The website also depicted crisis pregnancy centers as inaccurate and deceptive operations, citing an Attorney General Kris Mayes webpage portraying these centers as predatory with personal health information and potentially even dangerous.
Repealing this 1864 ban is a major victory for reproductive rights. But the fight isn’t over — right now Arizona women are still living under these extreme abortion bans.
Mayes celebrated the court’s decision. She said that her office may use the time afforded them to petition the U.S. Supreme Court.
“I am grateful that the Arizona Supreme Court has stayed enforcement of the 1864 law and granted our motion to stay the mandate in this case for another 90 days,” said Mayes. “During this period, my office will consider the best legal course of action to take from here, including a potential petition for certiorari to the U.S. Supreme Court.”
Apart from the additional stay granted, Mayes said that she opposed the Arizona Supreme Court’s ruling. Mayes indicated that abortion was a form of medical care.
“I continue to believe this case was wrongly decided, and there are issues that merit additional judicial review,” said Mayes. “I will do everything I can to ensure that doctors can provide medical care for their patients according to their best judgment, not the beliefs of the men elected to the territorial legislature 160 years ago.”
My Statement on Arizona Supreme Court Ruling Granting Additional Stay of 1864 Abortion Law. pic.twitter.com/8akSTWR3jt
— AZ Attorney General Kris Mayes (@AZAGMayes) May 13, 2024
Former Attorney General Mark Brnovich, during his last months in office, backed the total abortion ban.
AZ Free News is your #1 source for Arizona news and politics. You can send us news tips using this link.
