by Staff Reporter | Sep 18, 2025 | News
By Staff Reporter |
Arizona voters have low confidence in their elected leaders at both the state and national levels, according to a new poll.
The poll from Noble Predictive Insights, conducted in August, surveyed over 900 voters across the state.
Democrats have the least confidence in the state (56 percent), followed closely by independents (55 percent), and then Republicans (52 percent).
The poll also asked Arizonans if they thought the state is better off now than it was four years ago with the COVID-19 pandemic, wildfires, and the Maricopa County ballot audit.
Most of the respondents said they preferred the state of the state and nation four years ago compared to the present. Mike Noble, founder and CEO of Noble Predictive Insights, said in a press release these latest polling results indicate that Arizonans don’t believe the government they elected is delivering on its promises.
“Arizonans are signaling that they want to see tangible progress – whether it’s cost of living, housing, water, or the ability of leaders to work past gridlock, voters are looking for reasons to feel the state and the country are on a better path. Right now, they just don’t see it,” said Noble.
50 percent of Democrats expressed a preference for the 2020 state of Arizona to now, followed by 40 percent of independents, and 37 percent of Republicans.
The results didn’t vary too much across generational demographics. About one-quarter of voters across age groups expressed satisfaction with the present state of Arizona, and 40 percent across generational groups expressed dissatisfaction with the present.
When asked about the state of the nation four years ago compared to now, 74 percent of Democrats said the country is worse now, followed by 54 percent of independents, and 24 percent of Republicans.
The majority of Republican subgroups among respondents expressed greater satisfaction with the present state of the nation compared to four years ago.
Younger respondents (aged 18 to 29) had the most pessimism about the trajectory of the country. 23 percent of young voters expressed greater satisfaction with the country presently compared to four years ago. 53 percent of young voters expressed much less satisfaction.
Those above the age of 65 had less of a divide. 42 percent said the country is better off now than it was four years ago, and 50 percent said the country is worse off.
The top five concerns for respondents were, in order: affordable housing (38 percent Republican, 41 percent Democrat, 54 percent independent); inflation (48 percent Republican, 45 percent Democrat, 38 percent independent); immigration (62 percent Republican, 29 percent Democrat, and 39 percent independent); health care (34 percent Republican, 41 percent Democrat, and 40 percent independent); and education (23 percent Republican, 27 percent Democrat, and 23 percent independent).
Those outside the top five, in order, were: taxes, unemployment rate, climate change, gun policies, abortion, income gap, national defense, something else not listed, and LGBT rights.
Rankings for those categories were established by summarizing the totals from the responses of the three voter groups.
Overall, respondents expressed the opinion that immigration was overrepresented in political discourse and elected officials’ focus.
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by Jonathan Eberle | Jul 10, 2025 | News
By Jonathan Eberle |
Sixteen months before the 2026 General Election, Arizona voters already know at least three ballot measures they’ll be weighing come November. Referred to the ballot by state lawmakers during the most recent legislative session, the proposals span issues of taxation, public safety, and individual privacy.
If passed, each measure would amend the Arizona Constitution — changes that can only be undone by future statewide votes. And these early additions may just be the beginning of what’s shaping up to be another crowded ballot.
In 2024, the number of voter questions was so high that some Arizona counties resorted to printing two-sheet ballots, prompting widespread voter complaints about ballot length. With dozens of potential referrals still under consideration, the 2026 ballot may once again test voters’ patience and attention spans.
Here’s a closer look at the three measures already set for the 2026 ballot:
1. Local Food Taxes Face New Restrictions
Sponsored by Rep. Leo Biasiucci (R–LD30), House Concurrent Resolution 2021 seeks to limit the ability of local governments to impose taxes on groceries.
If approved, the measure would require cities, towns, or counties to obtain voter approval before creating or increasing a tax on food. Currently, local governments can make that decision without direct input from the electorate.
The measure would also impose a temporary moratorium on any food tax hikes until June 30, 2027.
Proponents argue the change would make groceries more affordable during a time of rising costs. Local officials, however, warn it could impact critical revenue for municipal services.
The proposal passed with bipartisan support.
2. Ban on Mileage-Based Vehicle Taxes
Senate Concurrent Resolution 1004, sponsored by Sen. Jake Hoffman (R–LD15), would preemptively ban any tax or fee based on the number of miles a vehicle travels on Arizona roadways.
While Arizona does not currently impose such a tax, Hoffman and supporters argue the measure is necessary to protect personal freedom and prevent government overreach.
“There is nothing more insidious than the government trying to limit or control their citizens’ freedom,” Hoffman said earlier this year.
Mileage-based taxes have been explored in other states, like Oregon and Utah, as a way to replace declining fuel tax revenues and reduce pollution. Environmental advocates in Arizona, including the Sierra Club, support such measures as a means of curbing emissions and promoting sustainable transportation.
The resolution passed along party lines, with Republicans in favor and most Democrats opposed or absent.
3. Designating Cartels as Terrorist Organizations
In one of the final acts of the 2025 legislative session, lawmakers approved House Concurrent Resolution 2055, which seeks to classify drug cartels as terrorist organizations under Arizona law.
Introduced by House Speaker Steve Montenegro (R–LD29), the measure would direct the state’s Department of Homeland Security to take all possible actions within its authority to counteract cartel activity.
Supporters say it complements Proposition 314, a 2024 ballot measure that authorized Arizona to enforce its own border security measures — though that law remains on hold pending the outcome of a related Texas lawsuit.
These early measures may just scratch the surface. Dozens of proposed ballot referrals were introduced during this year’s session, and lawmakers still have the 2026 legislative calendar to revive stalled proposals or introduce new ones.
As Arizona continues its tradition of robust direct democracy, election officials may once again find themselves preparing for a complex and lengthy ballot — and voters will need to prepare for an equally complex decision-making process at the polls.
Jonathan Eberle is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
by Matthew Holloway | Dec 12, 2024 | News
By Matthew Holloway |
Noble Predictive Insights (NPI) released its Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) results on Thursday, offering the closest to a full exit-poll that has been generated in the state so far after the election. Conducted in the last pre-Thanksgiving week of November, the survey spoke to 988 registered voters in Arizona and among other things asked voters specifically, “WHY they voted the way they did.”
The pollsters asked voters to express their reasoning for voting for President-elect Donald Trump versus Vice President Kamala Harris and for Congressman and Senator-elect Ruben Gallego instead of Kari Lake in particular.
Of all concerns that dominated the presidential election, the outlet found, as many polls prior to the election did, that the economy predominated being the most important issue in voters’ decision with 27% of respondents. This was followed by immigration, “Threats to Democracy”, and the “candidate’s background or policy record.”
The pollster’s noted:
“Trump’s GOP has made immigration a signature issue for the party, and Democrats – the party in power – own both the positive and negative aspects of the economy. Translation: The two top issues were great for Republicans.“
Republicans and Independents both were motivated first by the economy and then by immigration, while Democrats were motivated by the perceived “threats to Democracy,” followed by the economy and abortion.
David Byler, NPI Chief of Research explained, “Republican and Democratic candidates ran like they were living in different universes. Democrats cared about abortion and threats to democracy much more than immigration. Republicans saw immigration and the economy as crises caused by the Biden Administration.”
“We saw this same pattern in the pre-election polling. But the election proved that the GOP argument – about the economy, immigration, and dissatisfaction with how Biden governed – won the day.”
The pollster also observed that a potentially fatal flaw in Harris’ campaign was her deep integration within the deliberately named Biden-Harris Administration, which precluded her making a clean-break from an extremely unpopular presidency among Arizona voters.
“As Biden’s VP, most voters (56%) view Harris as an extension of the Biden administration rather than a new politician forging a different path (33%). Arizonans disapproved of Biden’s job performance for most of his tenure as President – which suggests he may have been a liability for the Harris campaign.”
Mike Noble, NPI Founder & CEO noted, “Hindsight is 20/20, but this might be one of the biggest mistakes of the 2024 Democratic process for replacing Biden. They chose someone who was part of the Biden Administration, knowing that he had a poor approval rating. Harris could be tied to Biden in a way that almost nobody could.”
Turning to the Senate race, the results took on a different character entirely. Rather than addressing particular issues or positions as they did in the presidential race, the pollsters’ questioning yielded more emotionally driven responses related to Kari Lake’s favorability, thus not offering a similar distinction in the Senate race. The outlet wrote, “This AZPOP asked voters who had an unfavorable view of Lake (53%) WHY they disliked her, and allowed them to select multiple reasons.”
Based on the narrow breadth of the question and its scope being limited to those who voted against Lake, Noble Predictive Insights found a majority of Gallego supporters either did so because she “denied her 2022 loss in the governor race,” because the respondent “did not like her personally,” or because she “imitated Trump without offering new ideas.”
Matthew Holloway is a senior reporter for AZ Free News. Follow him on X for his latest stories, or email tips to Matthew@azfreenews.com.
by Daniel Stefanski | Oct 14, 2024 | News
By Daniel Stefanski |
Arizona lawmakers are holding the state’s top election official accountable for his failure to be transparent with the public over a growing database error.
Earlier this month, a coalition of Republican legislators issued a statement “on Secretary [Adrian] Fontes’ failure to accurately report MVD database errors impacting thousands of Arizona voters.”
The statement followed an additional revelation from Fontes that there were 120,000 more Arizona voters who were in the database error universe, increasing the total count to approximately 218,000 of these individuals.
According to the Arizona Secretary of State’s Office, “The recent addition of approximately 118,000 people to the list of impacted registrants (originally thought to be approximately 98,000) was a result of including renewed and reinstated licenses in the MVD data pull of registrants that state officials now know may not have shown documentation sufficient to meet voter registration requirements.” Fontes said, “All of the Arizonans affected by this issue remain eligible voters and are long-time Arizona residents. All have attested under penalty of perjury – the same standard the rest of the country uses – that they are U.S. citizens.”
The Arizona Secretary of State’s Office asserted that it would “soon be able to accurately communicate with affected voters and provide clear next steps to resolve any issues pertaining to DPOC (documented proof of citizenship) needs, but this will not happen prior to the 2024 election.”
However, the coalition of Republican legislators were not satisfied with Fontes’ assurances. They wrote, “We will continue to monitor Secretary Fontes’ administration of this election and all litigation surrounding the MVD database / citizenship issues. As Republican members of the Arizona House of Representatives, we remain committed to exercising appropriate oversight during and after the election to ensure that elected officials in our Executive Branch are complying with Arizona’s proof-of-citizenship laws.”
They added, “It goes without saying that requiring proof of citizenship to vote is of paramount importance. Earlier this year, House Speaker Ben Toma and Arizona Senate President Warren Petersen – without support from Attorney General Mayes – fought in the Mi Familia case all the way to the United States Supreme Court to vindicate A.R.S. 16-121.01(C), which requires proof of citizenship for individuals to receive and vote a full ballot. Nonetheless, it is just as important that our election officials implement Arizona’s election laws in a manner that does not violate Arizonans’ rights to notice and due process.”
Signing the statement were Arizona State Representatives Ben Toma, David Marshall Sr, Leo Biasiucci, Travis Grantham, Michael Carbone, Joseph Chaplik, Lupe Diaz, Tim Dunn, John Gillette, Gail Griffin, Justin Heap, Alexander Kolodin, Quang Nguyen, Barbara Parker, Jacqueline Parker, Kevin Payne, Selina Bliss, and Michele Peña.
Daniel Stefanski is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
by Daniel Stefanski | Oct 7, 2024 | Economy, News
By Daniel Stefanski |
Arizona voters are increasingly worried about the rising cost of housing as the November General Election approaches.
Last month, Noble Predictive Insights (NPI) released the findings of a poll, showing that “affordable housing has officially cemented its status as a top-tier issue for Arizona voters.”
In the top issues facing Arizona for this survey, “Affordable Housing” registered third in importance. “Inflation” and “Immigration” were the top two issues on the minds of Arizonans.
Affordable Housing was ranked as the third-highest issue for Republicans, Democrats, and Independents alike. Inflation was also a top three issue for all three voter demographics.
“Immigration, abortion, inflation – when these issues come up, the parties know what they’re talking about. And voters know who they trust. Housing is a different animal. Housing costs are just too high, and it’s becoming a bipartisan concern,” stated David Byler, NPI Chief of Research. “This is a rare opportunity for both parties – an important issue where neither side has a pre-existing advantage or even a defined message. The party that figures out how to win on housing will benefit hugely.”
The survey conducted by NPI occurred in mid-August with just over 1,000 registered voters.
According to Zillow, the average home value in the State of Arizona is $431,492 as of August 31, which is up 2.4% over one year. Meanwhile, the average United States home value, per Zillow, is $361,282, which is up 2.9% over the past year.
Arizona Senate President Warren Petersen addressed the poll’s findings with AZ Free News, saying, “The American dream of homeownership has become unattainable for the working-class under the Biden-Harris Administration. We attempted to make homes more affordable last year for our citizens with the Arizona Starter Homes Act, but unfortunately, the Governor vetoed the bill after caving to pressure from special interests and the Biden-Harris Administration’s Department of Defense. To add insult to injury, the Governor halted home construction in two of the most booming areas of the Valley, worsening Arizona’s supply shortage. Republicans at the Legislature will continue to draft commonsense solutions to get government out of the way, and to speed up home construction, so prices can come down. We’re hopeful the Governor will do the right thing by signing those bills into law.”
In a piece for The Heritage Foundation this summer, EJ Antoni, a Research Fellow, wrote about the reasons for skyrocketing home values and costs in Arizona. He said, “Over the last four years, the federal government spent trillions of dollars it didn’t have and far more than it was capable of even borrowing. To cover the shortfall, the Federal Reserve created money for the Treasury to borrow and spend. While that solved the federal finance problem, it also unleashed the worst inflation in four decades and spawned a cost-of-living crisis. While inflation causes prices everywhere to rise, the housing market in particular has seen stratospheric increases in sales prices. Part of the Fed’s plan of creating trillions of dollars for the Treasury was keeping interest rates artificially low, and that made borrowing extremely inexpensive, including borrowing for a home.”
Antoni added, “Potential home buyers had access to so much cheap credit that they collectively bid up the prices of homes to never-before-seen levels. After the Fed’s low interests and easy credit created inflation, however, the central bank swung the monetary levers in the other direction and initiated fast interest rate hikes. That suddenly made borrowing prohibitively expensive for countless Americans.”
As Antoni concluded his piece, he stated that “in Arizona, it has reached the point where a single working adult needs to earn $97,000 to live comfortably. That’s over 50 percent higher than the median income for a single full-time worker. If you want to comfortably support a family of four in Arizona, you’ll need to earn $231,000. Even with two working adults, they’d need to each earn almost twice the median income of a full-time worker to hit that annual income.”
Daniel Stefanski is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
