by Matthew Holloway | Dec 12, 2024 | News
By Matthew Holloway |
Noble Predictive Insights (NPI) released its Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) results on Thursday, offering the closest to a full exit-poll that has been generated in the state so far after the election. Conducted in the last pre-Thanksgiving week of November, the survey spoke to 988 registered voters in Arizona and among other things asked voters specifically, “WHY they voted the way they did.”
The pollsters asked voters to express their reasoning for voting for President-elect Donald Trump versus Vice President Kamala Harris and for Congressman and Senator-elect Ruben Gallego instead of Kari Lake in particular.
Of all concerns that dominated the presidential election, the outlet found, as many polls prior to the election did, that the economy predominated being the most important issue in voters’ decision with 27% of respondents. This was followed by immigration, “Threats to Democracy”, and the “candidate’s background or policy record.”
The pollster’s noted:
“Trump’s GOP has made immigration a signature issue for the party, and Democrats – the party in power – own both the positive and negative aspects of the economy. Translation: The two top issues were great for Republicans.“
Republicans and Independents both were motivated first by the economy and then by immigration, while Democrats were motivated by the perceived “threats to Democracy,” followed by the economy and abortion.
David Byler, NPI Chief of Research explained, “Republican and Democratic candidates ran like they were living in different universes. Democrats cared about abortion and threats to democracy much more than immigration. Republicans saw immigration and the economy as crises caused by the Biden Administration.”
“We saw this same pattern in the pre-election polling. But the election proved that the GOP argument – about the economy, immigration, and dissatisfaction with how Biden governed – won the day.”
The pollster also observed that a potentially fatal flaw in Harris’ campaign was her deep integration within the deliberately named Biden-Harris Administration, which precluded her making a clean-break from an extremely unpopular presidency among Arizona voters.
“As Biden’s VP, most voters (56%) view Harris as an extension of the Biden administration rather than a new politician forging a different path (33%). Arizonans disapproved of Biden’s job performance for most of his tenure as President – which suggests he may have been a liability for the Harris campaign.”
Mike Noble, NPI Founder & CEO noted, “Hindsight is 20/20, but this might be one of the biggest mistakes of the 2024 Democratic process for replacing Biden. They chose someone who was part of the Biden Administration, knowing that he had a poor approval rating. Harris could be tied to Biden in a way that almost nobody could.”
Turning to the Senate race, the results took on a different character entirely. Rather than addressing particular issues or positions as they did in the presidential race, the pollsters’ questioning yielded more emotionally driven responses related to Kari Lake’s favorability, thus not offering a similar distinction in the Senate race. The outlet wrote, “This AZPOP asked voters who had an unfavorable view of Lake (53%) WHY they disliked her, and allowed them to select multiple reasons.”
Based on the narrow breadth of the question and its scope being limited to those who voted against Lake, Noble Predictive Insights found a majority of Gallego supporters either did so because she “denied her 2022 loss in the governor race,” because the respondent “did not like her personally,” or because she “imitated Trump without offering new ideas.”
Matthew Holloway is a senior reporter for AZ Free News. Follow him on X for his latest stories, or email tips to Matthew@azfreenews.com.
by Daniel Stefanski | Oct 14, 2024 | News
By Daniel Stefanski |
Arizona lawmakers are holding the state’s top election official accountable for his failure to be transparent with the public over a growing database error.
Earlier this month, a coalition of Republican legislators issued a statement “on Secretary [Adrian] Fontes’ failure to accurately report MVD database errors impacting thousands of Arizona voters.”
The statement followed an additional revelation from Fontes that there were 120,000 more Arizona voters who were in the database error universe, increasing the total count to approximately 218,000 of these individuals.
According to the Arizona Secretary of State’s Office, “The recent addition of approximately 118,000 people to the list of impacted registrants (originally thought to be approximately 98,000) was a result of including renewed and reinstated licenses in the MVD data pull of registrants that state officials now know may not have shown documentation sufficient to meet voter registration requirements.” Fontes said, “All of the Arizonans affected by this issue remain eligible voters and are long-time Arizona residents. All have attested under penalty of perjury – the same standard the rest of the country uses – that they are U.S. citizens.”
The Arizona Secretary of State’s Office asserted that it would “soon be able to accurately communicate with affected voters and provide clear next steps to resolve any issues pertaining to DPOC (documented proof of citizenship) needs, but this will not happen prior to the 2024 election.”
However, the coalition of Republican legislators were not satisfied with Fontes’ assurances. They wrote, “We will continue to monitor Secretary Fontes’ administration of this election and all litigation surrounding the MVD database / citizenship issues. As Republican members of the Arizona House of Representatives, we remain committed to exercising appropriate oversight during and after the election to ensure that elected officials in our Executive Branch are complying with Arizona’s proof-of-citizenship laws.”
They added, “It goes without saying that requiring proof of citizenship to vote is of paramount importance. Earlier this year, House Speaker Ben Toma and Arizona Senate President Warren Petersen – without support from Attorney General Mayes – fought in the Mi Familia case all the way to the United States Supreme Court to vindicate A.R.S. 16-121.01(C), which requires proof of citizenship for individuals to receive and vote a full ballot. Nonetheless, it is just as important that our election officials implement Arizona’s election laws in a manner that does not violate Arizonans’ rights to notice and due process.”
Signing the statement were Arizona State Representatives Ben Toma, David Marshall Sr, Leo Biasiucci, Travis Grantham, Michael Carbone, Joseph Chaplik, Lupe Diaz, Tim Dunn, John Gillette, Gail Griffin, Justin Heap, Alexander Kolodin, Quang Nguyen, Barbara Parker, Jacqueline Parker, Kevin Payne, Selina Bliss, and Michele Peña.
Daniel Stefanski is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
by Daniel Stefanski | Oct 7, 2024 | Economy, News
By Daniel Stefanski |
Arizona voters are increasingly worried about the rising cost of housing as the November General Election approaches.
Last month, Noble Predictive Insights (NPI) released the findings of a poll, showing that “affordable housing has officially cemented its status as a top-tier issue for Arizona voters.”
In the top issues facing Arizona for this survey, “Affordable Housing” registered third in importance. “Inflation” and “Immigration” were the top two issues on the minds of Arizonans.
Affordable Housing was ranked as the third-highest issue for Republicans, Democrats, and Independents alike. Inflation was also a top three issue for all three voter demographics.
“Immigration, abortion, inflation – when these issues come up, the parties know what they’re talking about. And voters know who they trust. Housing is a different animal. Housing costs are just too high, and it’s becoming a bipartisan concern,” stated David Byler, NPI Chief of Research. “This is a rare opportunity for both parties – an important issue where neither side has a pre-existing advantage or even a defined message. The party that figures out how to win on housing will benefit hugely.”
The survey conducted by NPI occurred in mid-August with just over 1,000 registered voters.
According to Zillow, the average home value in the State of Arizona is $431,492 as of August 31, which is up 2.4% over one year. Meanwhile, the average United States home value, per Zillow, is $361,282, which is up 2.9% over the past year.
Arizona Senate President Warren Petersen addressed the poll’s findings with AZ Free News, saying, “The American dream of homeownership has become unattainable for the working-class under the Biden-Harris Administration. We attempted to make homes more affordable last year for our citizens with the Arizona Starter Homes Act, but unfortunately, the Governor vetoed the bill after caving to pressure from special interests and the Biden-Harris Administration’s Department of Defense. To add insult to injury, the Governor halted home construction in two of the most booming areas of the Valley, worsening Arizona’s supply shortage. Republicans at the Legislature will continue to draft commonsense solutions to get government out of the way, and to speed up home construction, so prices can come down. We’re hopeful the Governor will do the right thing by signing those bills into law.”
In a piece for The Heritage Foundation this summer, EJ Antoni, a Research Fellow, wrote about the reasons for skyrocketing home values and costs in Arizona. He said, “Over the last four years, the federal government spent trillions of dollars it didn’t have and far more than it was capable of even borrowing. To cover the shortfall, the Federal Reserve created money for the Treasury to borrow and spend. While that solved the federal finance problem, it also unleashed the worst inflation in four decades and spawned a cost-of-living crisis. While inflation causes prices everywhere to rise, the housing market in particular has seen stratospheric increases in sales prices. Part of the Fed’s plan of creating trillions of dollars for the Treasury was keeping interest rates artificially low, and that made borrowing extremely inexpensive, including borrowing for a home.”
Antoni added, “Potential home buyers had access to so much cheap credit that they collectively bid up the prices of homes to never-before-seen levels. After the Fed’s low interests and easy credit created inflation, however, the central bank swung the monetary levers in the other direction and initiated fast interest rate hikes. That suddenly made borrowing prohibitively expensive for countless Americans.”
As Antoni concluded his piece, he stated that “in Arizona, it has reached the point where a single working adult needs to earn $97,000 to live comfortably. That’s over 50 percent higher than the median income for a single full-time worker. If you want to comfortably support a family of four in Arizona, you’ll need to earn $231,000. Even with two working adults, they’d need to each earn almost twice the median income of a full-time worker to hit that annual income.”
Daniel Stefanski is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
by Staff Reporter | Aug 31, 2024 | News
By Staff Reporter |
Arizona voters will decide this November whether to require the diversity of geographic distribution for ballot initiative signature gathering.
The legislature passed this proposal last year along partisan lines (Senate Concurrent Resolution 1015), now on the ballot as Proposition 134. Per the proposal, signature gatherers would have to gain support across all 15 counties for ballot initiatives, rather than focusing on the most populated ones.
The law currently allows signatures to be gathered from any area within the state. Proponents of Proposition 134 hope to ensure representation from the more rural areas of the state.
Proposition 134 would require 10 percent of registered voters from each of the state’s 30 legislative districts for statewide initiatives, 15 percent from each legislative district for constitutional changes, and five percent from each legislative district for referendums.
Current law only requires 10 percent of registered voters for any statewide initiative, 15 percent of registered voters for any constitutional changes, and five percent of registered voters for any referendums.
Per the secretary of state’s latest voter registration data, there are over 4.1 million voters in the state. Nearly 60 percent of voters live in Maricopa County (over 2.4 million voters).
Under current requirements, signature gatherers only have to obtain about 411,000 voter signatures for statewide initiatives, 616,400 voter signatures for constitutional changes, and 205,500 voter signatures for referendums.
Among those in favor of the proposition are the Arizona Farm Bureau, Arizona Free Enterprise Club, and the Goldwater Institute.
The Goldwater Institute operates the organization AZ Ballot Fairness in support of Proposition 134.
In a press release, AFB said that allowing “one big county” to pass initiatives without input from rural residents was unfair and could impose unintended consequences.
“Right now, rural Arizonans are completely ignored in the process. It is easier to sit on college campuses and densely populated areas like downtown Phoenix to collect all the requisite signatures than to get the buy-in from the diverse interests of Arizonans in other parts of the state,” said the Farm Bureau. “These diverse interests have a right to a voice in determining whether an issue will appear on the ballot.”
Those opposed include the Arizona Forward Party (AFP) and the Arizona Public Health Association (APHA).
AFP argued that the burden for signature gathering would be too great, citing the hypothetical of initiatives dying for a shortage of signatures in even one district.
“If only one district fails to collect enough signatures, the referendum, initiative, or amendment will fail to appear on the ballot no matter how popular or relative it is to the rest of the state,” said AFP.
APHA argued that the proposed signature gathering requirements would hinder and delay health campaigns as well as critical interventions.
“Public health advocacy often relies on the ability to mobilize quickly and effectively to address emerging issues,” said ADH.
Opponents argue that the measure would actually decrease representation by requiring its diversification.
Not every state has a citizen initiative process, but for those that do, around half have a signature distribution requirement.
AZ Free News is your #1 source for Arizona news and politics. You can send us news tips using this link.
by Staff Reporter | Jul 24, 2024 | News
By Staff Reporter |
Come November, Arizona voters may decide whether to establish abortion at any stage of pregnancy as a fundamental right in the state constitution.
The assigned ballot number, Proposition 139, declares that voting in favor of the initiative would create a fundamental right to abortion, thereby limiting the state’s ability to interfere with all abortions — mainly those pregnancies predating the generally accepted standard for viability, around 24 weeks.
However, that doesn’t mean that abortions won’t be covered by the state constitution after viability. The proposition declares that abortions will be permissible after viability should any involved health care professional determine them “necessary” to protect the mother’s life or health.
The proposition would also preemptively ban lawmakers from imposing any criminal sanctions or other punishments on anyone who assists another in obtaining an abortion.
“A ‘yes’ vote shall have the effect of creating a fundamental right to abortion under Arizona’s constitution. The State will not be able to interfere with this fundamental right before fetal viability, unless it has a compelling reason and does so in the least restrictive way possible. Fetal viability means the point in the pregnancy when, in the good-faith judgment of a treating health care professional, the fetus has a significant likelihood of survival outside the uterus. Throughout the pregnancy, both before and after fetal viability, the State will not be able to interfere with the good-faith judgment of a treating health care professional that an abortion is necessary to protect the life or health of the pregnant individual. The State will not be able to penalize any person for aiding or assisting a pregnant individual in exercising the right to an abortion.”
The secretary of state’s office is still reviewing signatures for the initiative.
Earlier this month, the PAC behind the initiative, Arizona For Abortion Access, sued the Arizona Legislative Council for using the term “unborn human being” rather than “unborn fetus” in their official analysis of the proposition distributed to voters in a publicity pamphlet.
An attorney for the PAC told lawmakers during their hearing on the subject that “unborn human being” was a partisan phrase, rather than their preferred term of “fetus.”
Arizona For Abortion Access, the political action committee behind the ballot initiative, has pulled in nearly $23.2 million for their cause.
The PAC’s biggest donors are mainly out-of-state entities: over $13.4 million altogether from The Fairness Project, Planned Parenthood Action Fund, Sixteen Thirty Fund, Advocacy Action Fund, the ACLU Foundation, Open Society Action Fund, Think Big America, The Green Advocacy, Movement Voter PAC and Project, Our Children Our Future, Clean and Prosperous America, and Moms Fed Up.
Several in-state entities rich with out-of-state cash flow put about $5.8 million toward the initiative: Arizonans Fed Up With Failing Health, ACLU of Arizona, Reproductive Freedom for All Arizona, Healthcare Rising Arizona, and the UFCW Local 99 PAC.
A number of wealthy, out-of-state billionaires have donated funds:
- Phoebe Gates, daughter of Bill Gates and Stanford University student, $750,000;
- Liz Simons, daughter of hedge fund billionaire James Simons, $250,000;
- Gaye Pigott, a Washington descendant of one of America’s richest families, the Pigott family, $75,000;
- Eric Laufer, a New York engineer, $65,000;
- Giovanna Randall, president and head designer of New York luxury bridal company Honor NYC $65,000;
- Barbara Simons, a retiree of San Francisco, California $51,000;
- Barton Faber, former Canto executive, a California-based software company (reported as living in Hawaii, but formerly from Arizona), $50,000;
- Ning Mosberger-Tang, a Colorado photographer, gave $50,000;
- Steven Spielberg, famed Hollywood director, and his Hollywood actress wife, Kate Capshaw, gave $100,000;
- Sheli Rosenberg, a retired Illinois executive of Equity Group Investments, gave $50,000;
- Gregory Serrurier, retired California cofounder of Redwood Grove Capital, $50,000;
- Eric Uhrhane, a Californian software engineer and angel investor, gave $50,000;
- Laura H. Lauder, a California philanthropist, gave $25,000;
- Georgia Taylor Michelson, Californian and wife to Zimmer Biomet board member Michael Michelson, gave $25,000;
- Marcia Grand, a California donor, gave $25,000;
- Sal Al-Rashid, a New York investor, gave $25,000;
- Elizabeth Brown, a California farmer, gave $25,000;
- Robin Donohoe, a Georgia venture capitalist, gave $25,000
Several wealthy in-state donors also gave. Among them were Juanita Fitzer Francis, who gave $200,000 — a former nurse with University of Arizona College of Medicine and Phoenix Children’s Hospital, and board member of the Arizona State University Foundation and University of Illinois Foundation. Francis also presides over the Francis Family Foundation.
There was also David and Louise Reese, who gave about $200,000 together. They operate the David E. Reese Family Foundation, a private grantmaking foundation in Paradise Valley. David formerly ran banking institutions across Arizona, Ohio, and New York.
And then there’s Sedona’s Donalyn Mikles, who gave $100,000. Mikles has been a top donor for the Democratic Party and Gov. Katie Hobbs in recent years. Mikles has served as a director of the Kling Family Foundation, a private philanthropic California nonprofit.
Donald Levin, a DRL Enterprises executive in Phoenix, gave $50,000. Paul Lipton, a Tucson hydroponics supply company founder, gave $25,000. Likewise, Robert Bertrand, a Paradise Valley retired executive of Concord Servicing, gave $25,000.
They’ve spent nearly $13.5 million so far, around $11 million on signature gathering. The second-largest expenditure was on advertising, generally, amounting to over $500,000, and polling came at a cost of over $100,000.
Staff salaries for other organizations also topped the list: staffing for Healthcare Rising, Reproductive Freedom for All Arizona, The Fairness Project, and the ACLU altogether amounted to over $400,000.
Their cash balance sits at just over $9.7 million.
AZ Free News is your #1 source for Arizona news and politics. You can send us news tips using this link.
