One of the lawmakers responsible for the state’s historic income and small business tax reduction law is key to maintaining Republican control of the Arizona Senate.
State Senator J.D. Mesnard is running for re-election to Arizona Legislative District 13, which covers Chandler, Gilbert, and Sun Lakes in the East Valley of the Phoenix-metro area. Mesnard first entered the state legislature in January 2011 in the Arizona House of Representatives, and he served eight years in that chamber, including two years as the Speaker of the House. In November 2018, after being termed out of the House, Mesnard won his election to the state Senate.
Over his time in the Arizona Legislature, Mesnard has proven himself to be one of the top fiscal responsibility hawks in either chamber. On his campaign website, he addresses his thoughts on this issue, writing, “I support keeping taxes as low as possible, and we can’t have low taxes with reckless government spending. The fact is, the more government spends, the more we pay for it in higher taxes and/or saddle future generations with unsustainable debt. That doesn’t mean that all government spending is bad. For instance, funding public safety, a quality education system, and infrastructure are all necessary public goods. But I also believe that state government should follow the same financial guidelines that any responsible individual or family would follow: spend only what’s necessary, don’t rack up debt, invest in your learning, save for the future, and when times get tough, find responsible ways to trim.”
In 2021, Mesnard was responsible for a historic tax reform proposal that made its way through the Arizona Legislature and into law – SB 1828. This legislation ushered in a flat tax on individual incomes of Arizonans.
Mesnard was also the author of SB 1783, which lowered taxes on small businesses. The bill passed the state legislature and was signed by then-Republican Governor Doug Ducey.
After signing the bill into law in July 2021, Ducey recognized Mesnard for his efforts, when he said, “This tax cut will keep Arizona competitive for small businesses already operating here and new businesses flocking here every day. After a year as tough as the last, we should not be raising taxes on our small businesses — we should be cutting their taxes. That’s exactly what Senate Bill 1783 does. Arizona has now passed the largest tax cut in state history and will have the lowest flat tax in the country. My thanks go out to Senator J.D. Mesnard and Representative Ben Toma for their leadership on this issue.”
Mesnard added, “Small businesses are the backbone of our economy and integral to the future success of our state. Small businesses should be able to grow and reinvest in themselves without being forced to pay astronomical taxes. Rather, government should get out of the way so that they can thrive. That’s why I’m so grateful for the support of Governor Ducey and my colleagues in the Legislature.”
Two staunch free-market advocates Tim Phillips (President of Americans for Prosperity) and Grover Norquist (President of Americans for Tax Reform) wrote a piece in Newsweek, praising the accomplished feat of the Arizona Legislature, spearheaded by Mesnard, and Ducey. They stated, “Arizona, on the other hand, provides a good example: lower the tax rates to let people keep more of what they earn and invest in what they care about most. Limit government spending to grow no faster than the incomes of the citizens who pay the taxes. Create a magnet for job-creating investment and hardworking Americans who simply wish to be left alone to work hard, take care of their families and support their communities.”
Phillips and Norquist put the finishing flourish on their thoughts by saying, “The Arizona reform is a positive model and one that should be followed by other states and the federal government.”
When the Arizona Supreme Court gave the green light for these tax reforms to go into effect in a highly anticipated ruling, Arizona Free Enterprise President Scot Mussi said, “Today’s decision from the Arizona Supreme Court is a big win for taxpayers in our state. The legislature passed historic tax cuts last year that benefit all Arizona taxpayers. It’s time for Invest in Arizona and out-of-state special interest groups to accept this reality and stop making a farce of the referendum process.”
Mesnard touted the progress of his historic legislation in a campaign newsletter in January 2023, saying, “The historic tax reform that I championed in 2021 is now in effect for income earned this year – a full year ahead of schedule thanks to strong government revenues. Valued at more than $2 billion, this reform reduced individual tax rates to 2.5%, resulting in a tax cut for every single Arizona family and Arizona having the lowest flat tax in the nation.”
The east valley lawmaker added, “Depending on your tax decisions, if you choose to lower your withholding rates this year, you will be able to keep more of your own hard-earned dollars with each paycheck that hits your checking account. That will help take some of the edge off sticker shock at the grocery store.”
According to the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission, Legislative District 13 is one of the most competitive in the state, with a 1.6% vote spread between Republicans and Democrats in the past nine statewide elections. In those contests, Republicans have won five times, compared to four for Democrats.
Mesnard will be facing off against Democrat nominee, Sharon Winters, in the November General Election. On his website, Mesnard asks voters to give him another term in the state senate, writing, “Now we face historic economic challenges that require someone with the right experience and a track record of success to navigate. That’s why I need your vote. Let me continue using my diverse background, which includes husband (to a registered nurse), father, professor and small business owner, with master’s degrees in business and public administration, to keep delivering results for you.”
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Everyone knows that political pundits, social media influencers, and the corporate media love a good narrative. And one of their favorites for years has been the claim that Arizona is trending blue—that a demographic shift toward Democrats is inevitable.
This ‘conventional wisdom’ is repeated so often that much of the Republican political class in the state has accepted it as fact. Some are even advising candidates that the only path forward for Republicans is to abandon their conservative principles, embrace center-left policy solutions, and settle for a future of divided government.
But a funny thing about narratives and conventional wisdom: numbers don’t lie, especially those showing party preference when people are registering to vote.
Last month, the Secretary of State updated the statewide voter registration data prior to the Presidential Preference Election. The latest figures show that Republicans are once again the largest voting bloc in Arizona, surpassing Independents by nearly 40,000. This is certainly an important development—especially given all the attention it received on social media when Independent registrations surpassed Republicans last year.
But that’s not the most significant voter registration trend…
For the past three years, the people of Arizona have been forced to deal with the fallout of a struggling economy, rising prices, and an inflation rate that, at one point, was the highest in the country. With this in mind, Republicans got to work, delivering the largest tax cut in state history and following that up with a budget that included tax rebates for Arizona families.
But Governor Katie Hobbs clearly has much different priorities when it comes to your hard-earned money. True to her 10-year history of pulverizing Arizona taxpayers, Hobbs announced during her State of the State address in January her desire to—you guessed it—massively grow the size of state government. And judging by the executive staff hiring spree that Hobbs is on as governor, it’s clear that this isn’t just empty rhetoric…
Friday’s jobs report is not the home run that Democrats and the mainstream media claim. In their rush to champion topline job creation, they overlook how the jobs report is actually made up of two surveys. And the other doesn’t look so good, though it’s far more reflective of the economic reality facing ordinary Americans and small businesses.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics surveys business establishments and households each month to generate its report on labor market conditions. The establishment survey of payrolls produces the monthly job creation number the media is quick to champion. Yet even the BLS admits the household survey is “more expansive” because it also measures self-employed workers and those employed privately in households. This survey produces the unemployment rate.
For years, these surveys have tracked each other in terms of employment growth, as you’d expect. However, beginning in mid-2022, they began to diverge, with the payroll survey showing far more job creation than the household survey. Over the last year, the payroll survey finds 2.9 million jobs have been created, while the household survey reveals only 1.1 million new jobs.
In stark contrast to the 353,000 jobs created in the payroll survey, the household survey shows employment actually declined by 31,000 last month. Full-time jobs declined by 63,000. That’s a far cry from today’s headlines about a booming economy.
These household survey numbers are in line with other anecdotal and empirical data. On Thursday, the job placement firm Challenger, Gray and Christmas reported a historic 82,300 layoffs in January. This week, UPS announced 12,000 layoffs. Major companies such as Zerox, Spotify, and Hasbro have recently laid off at least 15% of their workforce. There’s also a jobs bloodbath currently occurring in the media sector.
On Wednesday, ADP reported that only 107,000 private-sector jobs were created in January.
There are other technical problems with the jobs report. Seasonal adjustments and annual revisions to population estimates have made January jobs reports notoriously untrustworthy. I can’t understand why we need opaque “seasonal adjustments” to the job numbers at all. Americans are smart enough to understand that job creation will be higher in some months and lower in others for seasonal reasons. We don’t need green eyeshades smoothing them for us.
Bipartisan tax cut legislation passed this week in the House of Representatives can turbocharge job creation in both surveys in the months ahead. The legislation, brokered by House Ways and Means Chairman Jason Smith (R-MO), extends key tax cuts passed as part of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in 2017, making it easier for small businesses to invest, expand, and hire.
This legislation is overwhelmingly supported by Main Street, with small businesses calling the immediate expensing provision “a game-changer.” The Senate should quickly pass this legislation and send it to President Biden’s desk to be signed into law.
In the meantime, let’s see if the payroll and household surveys continue to diverge in the jobs reports ahead. If they do, it will be more confirmation that the economy is not out of the woods yet.
Alfredo Ortiz is a contributor to The Daily Caller News Foundation, president and CEO of Job Creators Network, author of “The Real Race Revolutionaries,” and co-host of the Main Street Matters podcast.
After several years of inflated budgets propped up by trillions in unsustainable COVID cash flowing to the states from the federal government, Arizona lawmakers will be coming into the new year and the new legislative session facing a potential shortfall for the budget year in excess of $400 million. Naturally, the left and their sycophants in the media have for months been decrying this to be the result of 1) historic tax cuts enacted by Republicans in 2021 and 2) the successful universal expansion of school choice in 2022. This couldn’t be further from the truth, and there are three key facts that need to be remembered when discussing the state budget and a potential funding gap.
1. The Shortfall Is a Fraction of the Arizona Budget, Nothing Like California’s Crisis
The projected $400 million shortfall represents less than 5% of the total state budget, which spends $17.8 billion this year. Far from catastrophic. Compare this to our neighbor California, facing a $68 billion dollar deficit (nearly four times the size of our entire budget), which represents 22% of their $308 billion bloated budget – up from less than $200 billion only four years ago.
Opposite to our approach, California has continuously increased taxes, having one of the highest income tax burdens in the country. They also don’t provide choice to parents and families to make educational decisions themselves. Surely, if Arizona taking less of the people’s hard-earned money and providing ESAs to all families is the cause of our small funding gap, California, doing the exact opposite, should place them in tip top shape, right?
