by Daniel Stefanski | May 27, 2024 | News
By Daniel Stefanski |
Former President Donald J. Trump continues to lead in the battleground state of Arizona, though his margin is not insurmountable over President Joe Biden for the November General Election.
Two polls were released last week, showing Trump over Biden in Arizona, whose eleven Electoral College votes will likely prove critical for the outcome of the 2024 Presidential Election.
The first poll was from CBS News / YouGov. This result had Trump beating Biden by five percent (52-47) in their second head-to-head match-up. This poll was conducted between May 10-16 with a sample of 1,214 registered voters across the state.
In this poll, Trump’s high-level support was stronger than Biden’s. Sixty-six percent of respondents indicated that their support for the former president was “very strong” compared to sixty-one percent for Biden. The economy (82%), inflation (78%), and the state of democracy (70%) were the top factors in the individuals’ selections for president, followed by the U.S. Mexico border (61%).
The second poll was from Noble Predictive Insights. This result had Trump beating Biden by three percent, with fifteen percent undecided. This poll was conducted between May 7-14 with a sample of 1,003 registered voters across the state.
The Noble poll also factored in other third-party candidates in the race, showing that Trump actually grew his lead over Biden in Arizona with individuals like Robert Kennedy, Jr. and Jill Stein competing for a share of the votes. With these other candidates in the race, the poll showed Trump beating Biden by seven percent (43-36). Kennedy, Jr. took eight percent, and Stein garnered two percent.
NPI Chief of Research David Byler said, “In 2020, Biden argued that he would be a ‘return to normalcy’ president – restoring competence and confidence to a nation in the throes of a pandemic and bitter partisan fighting. Biden’s problem: COVID-19 is gone, but normalcy isn’t back. Americans are worried about inflation and immigration – and, as a result, he’s lost ground in key swing states like Arizona.”
According to the Real Clear Polling Average, Trump enjoys a 4.6% lead over Biden with different pollsters showing his current margin of victory in Arizona between three and six percent over the past few months. On this day in history on Real Clear’s site, Biden was up four percent over Trump in Arizona in average polling in 2020, and Hillary Clinton enjoyed a one percent advantage in 2016. Trump ended up surpassing Clinton in 2016 to capture the state’s Electoral College votes, while he narrowly lost the state to Biden in 2020.
Daniel Stefanski is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
by Daniel Stefanski | May 3, 2024 | News
By Daniel Stefanski |
A recent Arizona poll had bad news for the state’s second-year governor.
On Tuesday, Emerson College Polling published its survey of swing states in the 2024 election. Arizona Governor Katie Hobbs, a Democrat, garnered 38% approval, compared with 42% disapproval from respondents (with 20% neutral).
Hobbs’ results were some of the worst in the swing states among her fellow governors. Her approval rating was the lowest of the seven polled, and her disapproval numbers were one percentage point lower than the highest – which went to Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, also a Democrat.
The swing states polled were Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
The Arizona governor’s approval was two percentage points lower than President Joe Biden’s in her state. Biden obtained a 40% approval and a 51% disapproval.
Emerson College showed that former President Donald J. Trump held a four-percentage point lead in a head-to-head match-up in Arizona with current President Joseph R. Biden – 48% to 44% with eight percent of respondents undecided. When additional ballot options were added to the polling question, Trump maintained his four-point advantage in the Grand Canyon State – 44% to 40%.
Spencer Kimball, the executive director of Emerson College Polling, highlighted that “Independent voters break for Trump over Biden in Arizona (48%-38%).
The country is quickly heading toward the November 2024 election, with Arizona figuring to feature a prominent role in determining the individual who will assume the reins of the Executive Branch of the nation for the next four years. Most polls this year have shown that President Trump has built a lead over Biden in Arizona, though much time remains until the fall showdown.
Daniel Stefanski is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
by Staff Reporter | May 2, 2024 | News
By Staff Reporter |
A new poll from Emerson College and The Hill found that former President Donald Trump leads President Joe Biden in Arizona and six other key swing states.
The poll, released on Monday, reflected a consistency in swing state preferences since last November, according to the pollsters. Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in a press release that the main differences concerned a diminishment in undecided voters and increase in support for Biden in Georgia and Nevada.
“The state of the presidential election in swing states has remained relatively consistent since Emerson and The Hill started tracking them last November,” said Kimball. “The share of undecided voters has reduced and Biden gained ground in Georgia and Nevada, narrowing the gap, while Trump has maintained a slight edge on Biden in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.”
Trump leads Biden by four percent in Arizona (eight percent undecided), three percent in Georgia (nine percent undecided), one percent in Michigan and Nevada (11 percent undecided), five percent in North Carolina (10 percent undecided), and two percent in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (eight percent undecided).
Last November, the pollsters found that Trump led Biden by two percent in Arizona among both registered and likely voters (16 percent and 11 percent undecided, respectively).
In this latest poll, Trump won over more independent voters than Biden in Arizona (48 percent compared to 38 percent), as well as Michigan (44 to 35 percent), Nevada (43 to 37 percent), Pennsylvania (49 to 33 percent), and North Carolina (41 to 38 percent). Georgia and Wisconsin independent voters favored Biden, at 42 to 38 percent and 44 to 41 percent, respectively.
Biden had a 51 percent disapproval rating, compared to 40 percent approval in Arizona. The other swing states had similar dismal disapproval ratings for the president: 52 percent disapproval in Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin; 53 percent disapproval in North Carolina; and 51 percent disapproval in Pennsylvania.
Third party candidates reflected a bigger hurt than help for the incumbent president in most swing states, save for Arizona and Michigan, where Biden and Trump came up even for voter support.
The poll found that a plurality of voters in all swing states believed that the New York criminal trial against Trump was appropriate, and not a “witch hunt,” as the pollsters described.
13 percent of Arizona Republicans polled said they would be less likely to vote for Trump if he received a guilty verdict in the trial. Overall, a majority of Republican respondents said they would be more likely to support the former president should he be found guilty.
Independent voters said they would be 32 percent more likely to vote for Trump if he is found guilty, 43 percent said the ruling would have no impact, and 25 percent said they would be less likely to support him.
The poll also asked voters about their U.S. Senate candidates and sentiments of their governors.
In Arizona, 45 percent supported Democrat Ruben Gallego to replace outgoing Independent Senator Kyrsten Sinema, compared with 43 percent in support of Kari Lake. Gallego had a marginal gain of one percent compared to Lake’s three compared to the pollsters’ previous data from March.
Governor Katie Hobbs received a 42 percent disapproval rating, with 38 percent approving and 20 percent neutral. Hobbs was the only swing state governor on the poll that had a majority disapproval rating.
AZ Free News is your #1 source for Arizona news and politics. You can send us news tips using this link.
by Daniel Stefanski | Jul 14, 2023 | Education, News
By Daniel Stefanski |
Americans’ support for school choice is on the rise.
A recent poll from Real Clear Opinion Research showed that school choice has the support of 71% of the 1,000 registered voters who participated in that survey. This number was a seven-point increase from an April 2020 poll.
In this June 27-30 poll, support for school choice came from 80% of Republican voters, 66% of Democrat voters, and 69% of Independent voters. Though the Republican and Democrat support was up from April 2020, the 9% increase in favor from Independents was the most among the political parties.
The question presented to voters on the survey was as follows: “School choices gives parents the right to use the tax dollars designated for their child’s education to send their child to the public or private school which best serves their needs. Generally speaking, would you say you support or oppose the concept of school choice?”
The CEO of American Federation for Children, Tommy Schultz, lauded the news about the growing support for school choice around the country, saying, “School choice support is here to stay, and politicians who ignore this reality do so at their own peril. Parents are the new interest group in town, and legislators would be wise to keep responding to their needs. The days of the old one-size-fits-all model are numbered, welcome news for the countless students who need something different to learn and thrive. AFC is thrilled to continue standing behind parents as they gain more options for their children’s education.”
Arizona has been at the front lines of the surge in school choice support. Last year, the Republican-led Legislature passed a historic expansion of the state’s Empowerment Scholarship Account (ESA) Program, allowing any child in K-12 to apply. According to a June 30 update from the Executive Director of the ESA Program, Christine Accurso, 62,005 Arizona students have now been enrolled.
That same update also showed that the program, under the direction of Republican Superintendent of Public Instruction Tom Horne, had largely caught up with the backlog and influx of reimbursements to ESA account holders. As of June 30, the ESA Program only had 1,195 Reimbursement Orders in the queue – down from 24,409 on February 8.
When asked about the increasing support for school choice in Arizona and around the nation, Superintendent Horne told AZ Free News, “We have a lot of excellent public schools in Arizona. But no matter how good a public school is, it may not be able to meet the needs of all students. Rich parents have always had the ability to choose the best school to meet the needs of each of their children and people at all economic levels should have the same ability. In addition, competition improves public schools. The United States has been prosperous, and the Soviet Union was poor, because we had competition which drives people to do their best, while they were a government monopoly. As they used to say in Poland, ‘We pretend to work, and they pretend to pay us.’ The same applies in education. Competition causes everyone to do better.”
Daniel Stefanski is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
