By Staff Reporter |

A new poll from Emerson College and The Hill found that former President Donald Trump leads President Joe Biden in Arizona and six other key swing states.

The poll, released on Monday, reflected a consistency in swing state preferences since last November, according to the pollsters. Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in a press release that the main differences concerned a diminishment in undecided voters and increase in support for Biden in Georgia and Nevada. 

“The state of the presidential election in swing states has remained relatively consistent since Emerson and The Hill started tracking them last November,” said Kimball. “The share of undecided voters has reduced and Biden gained ground in Georgia and Nevada, narrowing the gap, while Trump has maintained a slight edge on Biden in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.”

Trump leads Biden by four percent in Arizona (eight percent undecided), three percent in Georgia (nine percent undecided), one percent in Michigan and Nevada (11 percent undecided), five percent in North Carolina (10 percent undecided), and two percent in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (eight percent undecided).

Last November, the pollsters found that Trump led Biden by two percent in Arizona among both registered and likely voters (16 percent and 11 percent undecided, respectively). 

In this latest poll, Trump won over more independent voters than Biden in Arizona (48 percent compared to 38 percent), as well as Michigan (44 to 35 percent), Nevada (43 to 37 percent), Pennsylvania (49 to 33 percent), and North Carolina (41 to 38 percent). Georgia and Wisconsin independent voters favored Biden, at 42 to 38 percent and 44 to 41 percent, respectively. 

Biden had a 51 percent disapproval rating, compared to 40 percent approval in Arizona. The other swing states had similar dismal disapproval ratings for the president: 52 percent disapproval in Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin; 53 percent disapproval in North Carolina; and 51 percent disapproval in Pennsylvania. 

Third party candidates reflected a bigger hurt than help for the incumbent president in most swing states, save for Arizona and Michigan, where Biden and Trump came up even for voter support.

The poll found that a plurality of voters in all swing states believed that the New York criminal trial against Trump was appropriate, and not a “witch hunt,” as the pollsters described. 

13 percent of Arizona Republicans polled said they would be less likely to vote for Trump if he received a guilty verdict in the trial. Overall, a majority of Republican respondents said they would be more likely to support the former president should he be found guilty.

Independent voters said they would be 32 percent more likely to vote for Trump if he is found guilty, 43 percent said the ruling would have no impact, and 25 percent said they would be less likely to support him. 

The poll also asked voters about their U.S. Senate candidates and sentiments of their governors. 

In Arizona, 45 percent supported Democrat Ruben Gallego to replace outgoing Independent Senator Kyrsten Sinema, compared with 43 percent in support of Kari Lake. Gallego had a marginal gain of one percent compared to Lake’s three compared to the pollsters’ previous data from March.

Governor Katie Hobbs received a 42 percent disapproval rating, with 38 percent approving and 20 percent neutral. Hobbs was the only swing state governor on the poll that had a majority disapproval rating.

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