by Daniel Stefanski | Sep 28, 2024 | News
By Daniel Stefanski |
A new national poll has Republican Presidential nominee Donald J. Trump leading his opponent in the State of Arizona.
Earlier this week, the New York Times / Siena Sunbelt Poll released its latest survey of a handful of swing states in the presidential contest this upcoming November, showing that former President Donald J. Trump is leading Vice President Kamala Harris by five percent (50-45%).
The poll, which took place last week in Arizona, took responses from 713 registered voters. Eighty-seven percent of respondents were either very likely or almost certain to vote in the presidential general election.
Trump flipped this poll from the previous month’s result, when he trailed Harris by four percent (49-45%). Last year (in October), Trump also led Harris by five percent (48-43%).
In this latest installment, seven percent of respondents either didn’t know the candidate they would be voting for or refused to answer.
President Joe Biden had a 60% disapproval rating in this poll, which was increased from 57% last month.
The 45th President had a 47% approval rating in this survey, compared to a 51% unfavorable rating.
Harris had a 46% favorable rating in September, compared to a 51% unfavorable rating.
The economy, at 26%, was selected as the number one issue for voters in factoring into their vote for November. Immigration and abortion followed as the next issues of importance. Trump was selected by more respondents in the Arizona poll as the candidate who “would do a better job of handling the issue you think is most important.”
Arizona voters had far more trust in Trump for handling the economy (57-40%) and immigration (54-42%). Harris enjoyed a larger lead when it came to voters’ trust for her policies on abortion (55-39%) and a smaller advantage for the issue of democracy (49-46%).
More respondents believed that Trump’s policies have helped them and others (44%) than hurt (34%), while more individuals thought that Harris’ policies would hurt them (40%) than help (36%).
Voting for the General Election has already begun in the Grand Canyon State, with the contest just over a month away.
Daniel Stefanski is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
by Daniel Stefanski | Sep 23, 2024 | News
By Daniel Stefanski |
Maricopa County voters appear to be locked in with their support of a sales tax renewal for the November General Election.
Earlier this month, Noble Predictive Insights (NPI) released a poll to show that Maricopa County voters were overwhelmingly in support of Proposition 479.
Proposition 479 is a result of SB 1102, which was passed in 2023, requiring “that the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors call a countywide election for the continuation of the county transportation tax at least two years before the expiration of the tax, and shall conduct that election on a consolidated election date no less than one year before the expiration of the tax.”
The official title of the measure is the “Regional Strategic Transportation Infrastructure Investment Plan.”
If passed by Maricopa County voters, the revenues would be allocated in the following manner: “(a) 40.5 percent to freeways and other routes in the state highway system; (b) 37 percent to public transportation; and (c) 22.5 percent to arterial streets, intersection improvements and regional transportation infrastructure.”
According to the September survey released from NPI, Proposition 479 had 64 percent support from voters in August, compared to 18 percent opposition. Nineteen percent of voters were undecided about the question at hand.
The numbers for Proposition 479 are largely unchanged from two previous polls, dating back to July 2023. Opposition to the measure has only increased by a single percentage point since July 2023, while support has increased by eight percent during that same time frame.
“Maricopa County voters have had their minds made up for a year on this proposition – campaigns for it have clearly worked, and Prop 479 is on the fast track to victory in November,” said Mike Noble, NPI Founder & CEO.
After the Arizona Legislature passed a compromise for this proposal in July 2023, Republican Senate President Warren Petersen claimed victory, calling SB 1102 “the most conservative transportation plan in our state’s history.” He added, “The guardrails, taxpayer protections and funding allocations in the text of this bill reflect the priorities of voters, to reinvest their tax dollars in the transportation modes they use most.”
Democrat Governor Katie Hobbs, who signed the compromise, was diplomatic in her statement, saying, “Today, bipartisan leaders invested in the future of Arizona families, businesses, and communities. The passage of the Prop 400 ballot measure will secure the economic future of our state and create hundreds of thousands of good-paying jobs for Arizonans. I am glad we were able to put politics aside and do what is right for Arizona.”
Members of the Arizona Freedom Caucus were adamantly opposed to the bill as it was released and approved. After the Prop 400 plan passed through the Arizona Legislature, the Freedom Caucus tweeted, “Legislative conservatives near unanimously opposed this horrible bill. Conservative watchdog groups unanimously opposed it. The bill may have been better than the communists at @MAGregion’s horrific plan, but that’s a ludicrously low bar for success. This bill was antithetical to conservatism.”
The breakthrough on the Prop 400 compromise between Republicans and Democrats in Arizona’s divided government took place after Governor Hobbs vetoed a Republican proposal earlier that summer. At that time, Hobbs stated, “I just vetoed the partisan Prop 400 bill that fails to adequately support Arizona’s economic growth and does nothing to attract new business or create good-paying jobs.”
In May 2023, the governor had created unrest over ongoing negotiations, allegedly sending out a tweet that highlighted her fight with Republicans at the Legislature at the same time she was meeting with Senate President Warren Petersen.
Petersen stressed the importance of the agreed-upon bill, asserting that officials had “secured a good, responsible product for the citizens of Arizona to consider in 2024, giving voters the option to enhance critical infrastructure that our entire state relies upon.”
This NPI poll took place between August 12-16 with just over 1,000 registered Arizona voters, including 595 individuals in Maricopa County.
Daniel Stefanski is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
by Staff Reporter | Sep 17, 2024 | Economy, News
By Staff Reporter |
An exclusive poll for AZ Free News conducted by Data Orbital shows that among likely voters in the November 2024 General Election, President Donald Trump holds a narrow edge on Vice President and Democrat-appointed nominee Kamala Harris. Taken between 9/7/2024 – 9/9/2024, the poll shows Trump leading by a margin of 0.2% with 46.2% of those polled against Harris’ 46%, with a 4.26% margin of error.
Remarkably, the poll shows approximately 7.7% of Arizona voters remain undecided or refused to answer and are theoretically up for grabs in the highly competitive swing-state race.
Speaking with AZ Free News, George Khalaf, President of Data Orbital, explained, “Independent voters are always going to be very close, so they were. It was still neck and neck depending on the survey. The results sort of oscillate in terms of who’s in the lead.”
“That 7.7% undecided number, I would say, is going to be one of two things: 1.) Either individuals that are saying that they are likely to vote but don’t end up voting or 2.) People that really are truly undecided. But I would be shocked if the true undecided number is in the high single digits,” explained Khalaf.
“I would guess that right now, the true percentage of people that are undecided is maybe one or two percent, if that. This is a high-profile race and so most people have made up their minds. But I think a portion of people that are undecided likely will not end up making a decision on November 5th,” Khalaf stated. “And even if they come out and vote, they may just not vote in the presidential election or will write in somebody random.”
When polled on the most important issues facing Arizona, 30.4% of the likely votes said “Economy, Inflation, Cost of living,” 28.7% selected the Border and Immigration, and at a distant third selection, 18.3% said “Abortion/Pro-Choice/Women’s Rights.”
Conversely, Gallup polling from as recently as August found nationally that Immigration dominated as the most important issue at 19% of those polled, followed by the economy overall at 18%, poor government/leadership at 16%, and High Cost of Living/Inflation at 15%. Abortion barely moved the needle at just 4%.
Given that the poll’s results pre-date the Tuesday Sep. 10th Presidential Debate, they do not represent potential changes in perception that followed. However, Rasmussen Reports has offered a more comprehensive dataset with polling through Sep. 12th posted to X on Friday showing Trump ahead by six points, with another six percent undecided.
Pollster Nate Silver has consistently shown Trump to be favored to win the election both before and after the debate with Trump’s electoral college probability, which ignores the popular vote unlike general polling, at 61% based on the outcome of 40,000 election model simulations.
Nate Silver’s latest result is an increase from the 60.6% probability on Sep. 12th and is only a slight dip from the high point on Sep. 8th at 63.8%.
As of this report, Polymarket projection has President Donald Trump favored to win Arizona 61-40% and has Harris leading nationally by just one point. The projection has been fluctuating between the candidates by 1-3 points on a daily basis, with Trump leading by two points as recently as Sep. 11th and tied at 49% on the tenth.
As far as potential shifts in public opinion before the election, Khalaf told AZ Free News, “I don’t think we’re likely to see a large shift. I just think that obviously we all know the limitations of public opinion polling. There is a margin of error. And so I think the race is going to stay consistently in that range, which means that on election day, that’s why people are still saying it’s a toss -up, even though, again, I would say I would give Arizona a lean towards former President Trump, but I don’t expect a big shift. I don’t think that there’s much that could occur.”
Addressing the Sunday attempt on President Donald Trump’s life, he added, “I mean, look, we saw another assassination attempt, or at least that’s what they’re saying right now. They’re investigating an attempted assassination, and even then we’re not even hearing about it nearly as much as the first attempt. And so all that’s to say, there’s just so much information out there. There’s so much information that people are consuming. I’d be shocked if there was a major shift. I think all of the swing states: Arizona is no different.”
AZ Free News is your #1 source for Arizona news and politics. You can send us news tips using this link.
by Daniel Stefanski | Sep 16, 2024 | News
By Daniel Stefanski |
Maricopa County political races are essentially in a dead heat with less than two months until Election Day.
Earlier this month, Noble Predictive Insights (NPI) released its survey on Maricopa County races, showing Republicans and Democrats locked in a tight battle for all races.
According to NPI, the Maricopa County Sheriff’s race was tied with Republican Jerry Sheridan and Democrat Tyler Kamp tied at thirty-five percent each, with twenty-four percent undecided. Kamp has a twelve percent lead with independents, with thirty-six percent of that voting share undecided.
Incumbent Republican Maricopa County Attorney Rachel Mitchell leads Democrat Tamika Wooten by two percent (37-35%), with twenty-one percent undecided. Wooten has a ten percent lead with independents, with twenty-nine percent of that voting share undecided.
Democrat Gregory Freeman might be the frontrunner in the Maricopa County Assessor’s race, with a three-point advantage over incumbent Republican Eddie Cook (36-33%). There is twenty-six percent undecided in this race. Freeman holds a fifteen-point lead over Cook with independents, with forty percent undecided.
And in the Maricopa County Recorder’s contest, Democrat Tim Stringham leads Republican Justin Heap by four percent (38-34%), with twenty-two percent undecided. Stringham enjoys a fifteen percent lead over Heap with independents, with thirty-five percent of that voting share undecided.
“These races are incredibly close. In each one, the leading candidate is ahead by a low single-digit margin. With a high number of undecideds and more than two months between fielding this poll and Election Day – this poll just doesn’t point to a clear winner,” said Mike Noble, NPI President & CEO. “But historical data might tell us more.”
Daniel Stefanski is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
by Daniel Stefanski | Jul 3, 2024 | News
By Daniel Stefanski |
Another poll shows former President Donald J. Trump with a growing lead in Arizona for the 2024 General Election rematch with President Joseph R. Biden.
Last week, a P2 Insights poll revealed that Trump led Biden by eleven percent (47-36) in a June 2024 survey. The poll was conducted between June 11-20 with likely voters in the all-important swing state.
The firm conducted a similar poll in May, which had Trump leading Biden by only three percent (41-38).
According to the numbers produced by this report, Trump is winning 87% of his 2020 Arizona voters, while only losing one percent of voters who cast their ballots for him in the most recent presidential contest. Meanwhile, Biden is only winning 81% of his 2020 Arizona voters, while losing six percent of his former ballot box supporters to his Republican opponent.
The memo from P2 Insights Partner, Ryan Tyson, states that “around 60% of swing state voters across all states agree that Joe Biden is too old to be an effective president and that he can’t handle four more years in the White House.” Tyson added that “Trump’s greatest advantage in this race remains that he is more trusted to handle the economy than Biden, [and that] positive perception of Trump’s economy outperforms his baseline image by roughly 10 percentage points in every swing state.” In June, Trump leads Biden by 22% (59-37) among Arizona voters who agreed that “the economy was better under Trump than Biden” compared to ten percent in May (52-42).
This new poll on the current state of the 2024 presidential race in Arizona came just before the first debate between Trump and Biden last Thursday night. In his conclusion for his latest polling memo, Tyson opined that “Joe Biden is in desperate need of a moment in Thursday night’s debate to turn his campaign around.” With Biden’s debate performance receiving harsh marks from nearly all sides following the event, it may be safe to surmise that the Democrat president may have lost even more ground in a swing state like Arizona per the analysis from Tyson’s survey.
In the Real Clear Polling average, Trump leads Biden by 5.8% in the Grand Canyon State. At this point in the 2020 campaign, Biden led Trump in Arizona by a 5% average, and Clinton led Trump by an average of .5% in 2016. In 2020, Biden went on to narrowly edge Trump by .3% in Arizona, and Trump defeated Clinton by 3.5% in the state for the 2016 contest.
Arizona’s eleven electoral college votes will be critical to securing the presidency. Both Republicans and Democrats realize the importance of this state and those votes and are deploying a massive number of resources for this race and many others that will determine the political future for the southwestern state.
Daniel Stefanski is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
