A border security ballot measure might be headed for victory this coming November if numbers from a recent poll hold up.
This week, Noble Predictive Insights (NPI) released a poll, showing that Proposition 314 (the Secure the Border Act) was receiving 63% support for passage. Only 16% of respondents indicated that they were opposing the measure at the ballot box.
According to a press release issued by NPI, “Not all components of the expansive Prop 314 are equally popular. According to the poll, supporters of the measure most strongly back two of its planks: holding drug dealers responsible for the death of a person who consumes a drug containing fentanyl (77% support), and requiring employers to verify the immigration status of workers (75% support). Their feelings are more mixed (56% support) about reforms surrounding how migrants obtain public benefits. Among those who oppose Prop 314, 31% oppose the punishments for fentanyl dealers, 47% are against immigration status verification in the workplace, and 64% oppose the portion determining how migrants obtain public benefits.”
“Opponents will have trouble pushing the argument ‘people are only supporting this because of the fentanyl stuff, they don’t care about the immigration’ – that’s what voters like most about Prop 314,” said Mike Noble, NPI Founder & CEO. “Prop 314 is popular across party lines, and that is a difficult trend to disrupt with only a couple of months until Election Day.”
Proposition 314 was referred to the ballot by Republicans in the Arizona Legislature after Democrat Governor Katie Hobbs and left-wing legislators rebuffed most efforts from conservative lawmakers to pass legislation over the past two years to help secure the border and give law enforcement more tools to protect their communities. After the measure was transmitted to the Arizona Secretary of State, progressive interest groups opposed to the efforts challenged the legislation in court in an attempt to keep it from the ballot. However, multiple state courts rejected those lawsuits and gave the greenlight for voter consideration of Prop 314 in the November General Election.
Arizona Senate President Warren Petersen, who was instrumental in making sure Prop 314 made the ballot, reacted to the news of the NPI polling, telling AZ Free News, “The polling goes hand in hand from what I am hearing from my constituents. They are worried about border security. I think it shows how out of touch our democratic legislators are at the Capitol. Every single Democrat voted ‘no’ on this measure. I’m glad the voters will get to decide this.”
House Speaker Ben Toma, who was the sponsor of the legislative vehicle for the measure, added, “The polling is consistent with what we’ve been hearing from Arizonans all along—they are frustrated with the open border policies of the Biden-Harris administration and are demanding change. They want a secure border and safer communities. Proposition 314 offers meaningful, commonsense reforms to protect our communities, and I am confident it will pass in November.”
Daniel Stefanski is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
A new study released by the ASU Center for an Independent and Sustainable Democracy found that while Generation Z voters have become frustrated with the current state of American politics, there is still major motivation to participate in the 2024 election.
The survey, published by Noble Predictive Insights, polled Arizona registered voters from 20-30 years old and showed that 66% of them say they will “definitely” participate in the 2024 election but are wildly dissatisfied with the political parties as they exist today. 80% said they feel that the major political parties are “out of touch” with their generation and that there should be more choices on the ballot.
According to the poll, several conclusions stood out. Notably, the cohort predominantly identifies as independent with 49% of them eschewing membership in either major party.
The pollsters added, “they are profoundly frustrated with the political world that has been handed down to them. Only 20 percent of this group feels that the current political system works for their generation and 80 percent feel that both the Democratic and Republican parties are out of touch with people their age. Well over half feel that all politicians are corrupt.”
Thom Reilly, professor and co-director for ASU CISD explained, “Arizona’s Gen Z voters are sending a clear message that they are dissatisfied with the political status quo. They’re rejecting traditional party affiliations in favor of a more independent stance. Still, they haven’t given up on the democratic process. They are looking for alternatives and believe in their power to affect change through voting.”
Our recent survey of 1315 registered Gen Z voters: 2 out of 3 in Arizona say they will vote in November; 4 in 5 say the 2 major parties don’t represent them ; 49% are registered as independent ; top issues: economics , abortion, fair and secure elections https://t.co/ecsdYzVIKl
The poll indicated that by far the most pressing concerns of the Generation Z voters are economically and resource driven with the cost of living, affordable housing, and the protection of the water supply as most important, followed by healthcare, free and fair elections, jobs, and abortion.
Co-director Jacqueline Salit added, “Understanding these priorities is crucial for any candidate or party hoping to engage with Gen Z voters. These young Arizonans are deeply concerned about their economic futures, but they’re also engaged with broader social issues like healthcare access, election integrity, and reproductive rights.”
Clean Elections Executive Director Tom Collins told ASU News, “Understanding how Gen Z voters see our electoral system is particularly important for outreach to build and sustain democratic principles.”
Conversely, lowest on the agenda for Generation Z voters according to the survey are the potential ban of Tiktok, the U.S. role in the Russo-Ukrainian war, student loan debt, and LGBTQ+ rights.
Noble Predictive Insights found that the broad issue revealed by the poll is political disengagement in addition to a general dissatisfaction with the existing political status quo. Mike Noble, NPI Founder & CEO noted, “Young voters are giving us a clear message: ‘Show me that you care about what I care about.’ The data from this survey can act as a roadmap for political campaigns and civic organizations to motivate young voters.”
He added, ”What we’re seeing is a generation that’s rejecting political labels and traditional party loyalties. They’re independent-minded, issue-focused, and deeply committed to their principles. Any candidate or party that hopes to succeed with these voters will need to speak to their unique concerns and values and engage with them on the digital platforms where they’re getting and communicating information and opinions.”
