by AZ Free Enterprise Club | Jan 6, 2024 | Opinion
By the Arizona Free Enterprise Club |
After several years of inflated budgets propped up by trillions in unsustainable COVID cash flowing to the states from the federal government, Arizona lawmakers will be coming into the new year and the new legislative session facing a potential shortfall for the budget year in excess of $400 million. Naturally, the left and their sycophants in the media have for months been decrying this to be the result of 1) historic tax cuts enacted by Republicans in 2021 and 2) the successful universal expansion of school choice in 2022. This couldn’t be further from the truth, and there are three key facts that need to be remembered when discussing the state budget and a potential funding gap.
1. The Shortfall Is a Fraction of the Arizona Budget, Nothing Like California’s Crisis
The projected $400 million shortfall represents less than 5% of the total state budget, which spends $17.8 billion this year. Far from catastrophic. Compare this to our neighbor California, facing a $68 billion dollar deficit (nearly four times the size of our entire budget), which represents 22% of their $308 billion bloated budget – up from less than $200 billion only four years ago.
Opposite to our approach, California has continuously increased taxes, having one of the highest income tax burdens in the country. They also don’t provide choice to parents and families to make educational decisions themselves. Surely, if Arizona taking less of the people’s hard-earned money and providing ESAs to all families is the cause of our small funding gap, California, doing the exact opposite, should place them in tip top shape, right?
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by Corinne Murdock | Nov 16, 2023 | Education, News
By Corinne Murdock |
On Tuesday, House lawmakers convened to discuss the impact of universal school choice in the state.
The House Ad Hoc Study Committee on Empowerment Scholarship Accounts (ESA) Governance and Oversight heard public comments and expert testimony from Alan Maguire, a consultant with the Maguire Company; Patrick Moran, a Joint Legislative Budget Committee (JLBC) staffer; and John Ward, executive director of the ESA Program at the Arizona Department of Education (ADE).
Maguire said that ESA recipient growth has slowed as the school year has gone on, which he said was typical. He expressed the expectation that almost no matter what happens, the ESA Program’s implications for the state budget would be significant but manageable.
“I don’t think [the changes] we’re facing as a result of changes in the ESA recipients will be that challenging; challenging, but not scary challenging,” said Maguire.
Moran, the JLBC staffer, addressed the K-12 financing issues related to student movement between district and charter schools and the ESA Program. The Arizona Department of Education has $11.8 billion, but public schools receive funds from the Basic State Aid (BSA) Formula, which has $9.7 billion.
The BSA Formula factors funding based on average daily membership (ADM) student counts: enrollment of full-time/fractional students for the first 100 days, minus withdrawals, wherein students must meet the minimum requirements for total instructional hours/courses to be counted. The unweighted student count for the 2024 fiscal year was about 1.1 million.
Then, the ADM is weighted based on several grouped statutory factors: Group A weights adjust for school size, location (whether urban or rural), and type (K-8 or high school); Group B weights adjust for specific student populations, such as special education, English learners, or K-3 reading programs. With these group weightings, the 2024 fiscal year count reached about 1.56 million.
The BSA Formula components within the enacted budget established a base funding level of $7.8 billion, additional assistance at $1.04 billion, and transportation at $213 million. Property taxes fund nearly $2.6 billion of the public school formula, which the state partially offsets with a homeowner’s rebate (50 percent in the 2024 fiscal year with a cap of $600).
The enacted budget projected that the ESA Program would cost $625 million for 68,000 enrollees. However, actual enrollment is currently at about 70,000, and the ADE reported that awards have reached $665 million — $40 million over what was assumed in the budget. Moran said that this didn’t necessarily qualify as a shortfall for the ADE because they lack the data on where those new ESA students hailed from.
“We can’t determine the impact of ‘switchers’ in real time, because we don’t know of those 70,000 how many were in public school in FY 2024 and FY 2023,” said Moran. “We also need to know how much formula funding those students were generating in the district or charter school they were previously attending to calculate that net impact.”
Moran said that the average student award was lower from the ESA Program than for public district schools.
“Based on the data that ADE has shared with us, we think the average ESA [award] across all populations original and universal would be about $9,700 [per student], so it would be lower than the $12,200 [for charter schools] and lower than the $14,000 figure [for districts],” said Moran.
State Rep. Judy Schweibert (D-LD02) stated that Arizona ranked 48th in the nation for public school funding, based on federal data. House Speaker Ben Toma (R-LD22), the committee chairman, rebutted that the federal rank may not be entirely accurate, arguing each state’s funding formula for schools was unique and therefore not an apples to apples comparison.
Ward with the ADE offered management and administration updates concerning the ESA Program. Ward reported that the program has grown to nearly 70,200 students from over 13,400 students last September just prior to universalization. He projected that the ESA Program may reach anywhere from 90,000 to 100,000 students by the beginning of the next school year.
Ward projected that ESA awards may reach about $780 million by the end of the 2024 fiscal year. He dismissed concerns that the awards would bankrupt the state, reporting that even at that total the program would have a $57 million surplus in BSA.
Ward touched back on Moran’s assessment that public school student allocations were higher than ESA student allocations: $13,400 for public school students in the 2022 fiscal year versus $9,800 for ESA students in the 2024 fiscal year.
He reported that of the over 15,000 applications reviewed, several thousand were dismissed as incomplete. Additionally, almost 2,200 ESA accounts were suspended because of records indicating they were still enrolled in public school; their annual awards totaled over $21 million.
The ADE will be automating some of its processes going forward concerning purchase approvals and enrollment. ADE has partnered with ClassWallet to curate the catalogs of vendors on the marketplace and establish a rules engine, as well as to deploy directpay, reimbursement, and debit card auto approval through scanning technology and another rules engine.
Additionally, the ADE plans to improve data transparency by publishing a data dashboard. Types of data will include the number of ESA participants by eligibility type, grade level, gender, age, zip code, and county; number of students previously in a public school; number of applications coming in weekly and monthly; and average and median award amounts.
State Rep. Nancy Gutierrez (D-LD18) asked whether the surge in ESA Program popularity had to do with private school families. Moran said that 40 percent of ESA students came from public schools this fiscal year (2024), an increase from the last fiscal year (2023) prior to universalization.
Corinne Murdock is a reporter for AZ Free News. Follow her latest on Twitter, or email tips to corinne@azfreenews.com.
by AZ Free Enterprise Club | Oct 23, 2023 | Opinion
By the Arizona Free Enterprise Club |
Last week, the Joint Legislative Budget Committee (JLBC) released an updated state revenue forecast showing that Arizona may be facing a $400 million budget shortfall next year. And as predictable as the sun rising in the East, Democrat politicians and their friends in the media went on the attack, blaming the deficit on two historic reforms despised by the left—universal school choice expansion and the 2.5% flat tax cut passed in 2021.
For the Democrats and their sycophant media allies, the problem is always too much parental choice in education and letting taxpayers keep more of their hard-earned money. Yet this narrative couldn’t be further from the truth. A closer look at Arizona’s budget and the projected budget deficit reveals that we have a spending problem, not a revenue problem…
Projected Budget Shortfall Is a Spending Problem
Just 5 years ago, the legislature enacted the FY 2019 budget that included $10.1 billion in on-going spending, plus $500M in “one-time” expenditures ($10.7 billion total). By last year, that number had exploded to nearly $15 Billion in ongoing spending, a 50% growth in ongoing spending in 5 years! The most recent budget negotiated with Democrat Katie Hobbs earlier this year kept ongoing spending at a lower trajectory but included “one-time” outlays that brought the total budget cost to $17.8B…
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by Nancy Cottle | Sep 22, 2023 | Opinion
By Nancy Cottle |
In November 2023, there will be 23 districts within Maricopa County that are asking voters to approve a new Bond Issue, Budget Override, or District Additional Assistance.
One of the constant themes from the Educational Industrial Complex is that schools are underfunded and teachers are woefully underpaid. However, in the Arizona state 2024 budget, 50% of the total budget is allocated to education which includes K-12 schools, community colleges, and universities.
According to the Arizona Joint Legislative Budget Committee, per student funding at the state, local, and federal levels in fiscal year 2024 is an estimated $14,673 per student. This is up from 2023 funding at $14,025 per student. Contrast that with 2015 which was $9,124 per student.
To put the spending issue into perspective, Mesa Unified, the state’s largest district, is asking for an approval for $500 million in new bonds as well as a 15% budget override. However, the district has $182 million in unspent funds from the 2018 Bond initiative as well as $173 million in unspent COVID relief funds. Couple this with the $863 million the district will receive from the state in fiscal year 2024 and that’s roughly $1.2 billion dollars. Why is the district asking for more?
Despite this funding, the academic achievement for Mesa schools districtwide is abysmal. In 2022, only 38% of students were proficient or highly proficient at English Language arts, and only 31% of students are proficient or highly proficient at math. In addition, the 2022 graduation rate was 76%.
Some might argue that the recent steep inflation devalues the increased education spending by the legislature. But this is a two-way street. After all, taxpayers are also subject to inflation and asking them to keep increasing funding for an obviously broken system is not sustainable.
Finally, history shows that Mesa taxpayers are not anti-education. In 2018, they passed a $300 million dollar bond to increase funding. Fast forward to 2023 and the financial picture for Mesa schools is much healthier. Why are they asking for more money despite the fact that academic scores have remained flat for the last four years? The answer is not additional funding.
Enough is enough. The people of Arizona should reject all bond and override initiatives.
Nancy Cottle is a longtime East Mesa community resident. You can follow her on X here.
by AZ Free Enterprise Club | May 17, 2023 | Opinion
By the Arizona Free Enterprise Club |
Save Our Schools Arizona (SOS) and some Dem lawmakers were up in arms last week. And anytime that happens, you know you’re probably doing something right.
Last Wednesday, the Republican-led legislature passed the $17.8 billion budget, and it was a big win for students, parents, school choice, and Arizona’s taxpayers. Despite the fact that Governor Katie Hobbs made it clear that she planned to dismantle school choice for all with a full repeal of the beloved Empowerment Scholarship Accounts (ESA), Hobbs signed the budget without any cap or restrictions on the historic program. This should be cause for celebration—unless, of course, you’re SOS or certain Democrat lawmakers.
Predictably, SOS got right to work on spreading lies about the popular ESA program, claiming it would drain K-12 public schools of funding, hurt Arizona’s economy, and even bankrupt the state. That last lie is particularly absurd, but then again SOS has a history of such desperation when its back is against the wall. (Can you imagine being this bent out of shape that children from all walks of life can get an education that best fits their needs?)
The reality is that the ESA program has absolutely exploded during this fiscal year…
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