by Staff Reporter | May 27, 2026 | Economy, News
By Staff Reporter |
A new analysis of housing data found that less than half of households in Arizona could afford their monthly mortgage in 2025.
A new report from the Common Sense Institute (CSI) determined that only 42% of Arizona households could afford their mortgages last year.
In 2019, 66% of Arizona households could afford their monthly mortgages.
The report also found that the state faces a 56,000-unit housing shortfall, and estimated a long-term cumulative housing deficit of 110,800 units.
Based on those estimations, CSI predicted that it would take well over a century — 119 years — to close the housing gap in Arizona.
CSI found that Arizona households need to make $87,000 annually or nearly 60 hours of work per month at the average hourly wage rate ($35.10) to afford a typical home mortgage. In 2019, the hours of work per month needed to afford an average mortgage amounted to just under 40 hours.
CSI’s analysis found that housing costs remain elevated while building permits have declined.
Although home prices fell by about 3% in 2025, the average home was estimated to cost nearly $42,000 (or 11%) above the pre-pandemic pricing — nowhere close to historical trends or price-to-income ratios. Home prices peaked in 2022.
At present, the average house in Arizona costs nearly $421,000. That figure represents a 3.4% decline from summer 2024 and an 8.6% decline since summer 2022. However, that average home cost sits $142,900 higher than the average cost in 2019.
As of February, the average 30-year mortgage rate was over 6%.
Compared to the earliest data provided (2015), many things have increased greatly for Arizonans: the average home price (doubled), the average mortgage payment (nearly tripled), and the hours of work required (nearly doubled).
The average home pricing in December 2015 was just over $211,100, with a 30-year mortgage rate just under 4%, an average mortgage payment of $800, and the average wage rate of $23.23 requiring 35 hours of work per month.
Average monthly mortgage payments doubled from 2019 to 2025: about $1,000 in 2019 to $2,000 in 2025.
The state issued just under 51,000 residential building permits last year, representing a 14% decline from 2024.
Though lower, last year’s total permits fell within the range for keeping up with population growth and housing demand. CSI estimated that the state needs between 45,000 to 60,000 permits annually to keep pace with growth and demand. Maintaining that safety range doesn’t appear to be the reality shaping up for 2026, however. The state authorized about 3,000 new housing units in January, putting the state on pace to have 36,700 units by the year’s end — well below the necessary annual permit range.
This report on the state of housing was released around the same time as the latest employment report from the Senate’s Joint Economic Committee (JEC).
The JEC found that the unemployment rate remained unchanged in April (4.7%), which is higher than the national unemployment rate (4.3%). The state had an increase in about 8,100 net payroll jobs, one of 42 states to experience an increase; in March, the state had a 1,900-job increase.
Over the past year, Arizona added 13,300 payroll jobs and the unemployment rate rose by 0.5%.
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by Matthew Holloway | May 14, 2026 | Economy, News
By Matthew Holloway |
Arizona’s housing market continues to face significant affordability challenges despite slowing home prices and rising inventory levels, according to an update released this week by the Common Sense Institute (CSI) Arizona.
The report estimates Arizona faced an immediate housing shortfall of 55,992 units in 2025, while the state’s cumulative long-term housing deficit has reached approximately 110,837 units. According to CSI, current residential permitting trends suggest it could take more than a century to eliminate the existing housing gap.
CSI reported Arizona issued 50,983 residential permits in 2025, representing a 14 percent decline from 2024 and the slowest pace of permitting activity since 2019. The organization concluded that slowing construction activity continues to constrain the state’s housing supply, despite weakening demand in some markets.
“Arizona’s housing market is no longer experiencing the rapid price growth seen during the pandemic-era boom, but affordability challenges remain deeply embedded in the market,” said Glenn Farley, Director of Policy and Research at Common Sense Institute Arizona. “The state continues to face significant supply constraints, and while softer demand has created some short-term relief for buyers, long-term progress will ultimately depend on a sustained increase in housing production and permitting activity.”
According to the report, Arizona’s housing market has become more favorable for buyers in the short term as inventory levels rise and price growth slows. However, CSI stated the shift reflects softer buyer demand rather than substantial improvements in housing availability.
Average home prices in Arizona declined approximately 2.9 percent in 2025, though CSI noted prices remain roughly 11.1 percent above pre-pandemic trends. The report estimated the average home price statewide at approximately $420,900.
Mortgage affordability also remains under pressure. CSI estimated that a household would need an annual income of approximately $87,000 to afford the average-priced home in Arizona under conventional underwriting standards.
The organization found Arizona households now require roughly 58 hours of work per month at the average wage to service a standard mortgage payment, compared to approximately 38 hours per month in 2019. CSI estimated only 42 percent of Arizona households can currently afford the monthly mortgage payment on an average-priced home without exceeding standard debt-to-income guidelines. In 2019, approximately 66 percent of households met that threshold.
CSI also reported that Arizona home prices have declined approximately 3.4 percent statewide since June 2024, representing the third-fastest rate of decline nationally during that period.
It assigned Arizona a preliminary “C-” Housing Report Card grade for 2025, down from a “C+” at the end of 2024. The report follows CSI’s earlier affordability rankings that identified Arizona among the least affordable states in the country based on housing costs relative to household income.
Farley and CSI Arizona Senior Economist & Research Analyst Zachary Milne, who co-authored the report, concluded, “Arizona’s market is healthier than it was but remains paralyzed by inefficiencies. Prices have stopped rising but also haven’t come down much off their all-time highs. Combined with high interest rates, entering the housing market remains a daunting task for any prospective new buyer. Home permitting is slowing, migration and household formation are down, and the state is losing its luster as an affordable place to move to and create a life.”
Matthew Holloway is a senior reporter for AZ Free News. Follow him on X for his latest stories, or email tips to Matthew@azfreenews.com.
by Staff Reporter | Apr 26, 2026 | News
By Staff Reporter |
The housing moratorium crippling new construction in the Valley imposed by Gov. Katie Hobbs’ administration may not go on for much longer.
The Maricopa County Superior Court struck down the moratorium on Tuesday in Home Builders Association of Central Arizona v. Arizona Department of Water Resources, et al.
Under Hobbs, the Arizona Department of Water Resources (ADWR) issued new groundwater regulations rolled out in November 2024 dubbed the “Unmet Demand Rule” and the “Depth-to Water Rule.”
Per the court, these rules went impermissibly beyond the longstanding obligation for builders outlined in Arizona law, which required assurance of sufficient groundwater supply in order for each development to take place (100 years’ worth).
ADWR imposed the rules based on a groundwater model claiming that unmet demand and exceedance of the 1,000-foot depth-to-water limit existed throughout Phoenix. In other words, their regulations meant a developer seeking a certificate for one subdivision had to answer not just for their development area, but for the water status of the entire Valley. This resulted in ADWR’s indefinite suspension on granting certificates to any developers.
The consequence of these regulations brought new home construction to a halt throughout Maricopa County. The Home Builders Association of Central Arizona (HBACA), a trade association for the residential construction and development industry, challenged ADWR’s authority to impose new rules.
ADWR attempted to style the Unmet Demand Rule as a new implementation of an old rule, but the Maricopa Superior Court Judge Scott Blaney rejected that view as an undoing of the necessary limitations of administrative agency powers.
“‘To permit this would neuter all statutory limits on agency rule-making[,]’” stated Blaney in his ruling, quoting HBACA’s argument.
Blaney also found that ADWR didn’t follow state law on agency rulemaking under the Administrative Procedures Act. Blaney invalidated both rules.
“ADWR acted unlawfully by implementing two agency rules without first complying with the mandatory provisions of the APA[,]” wrote Blaney.
The Arizona Free Enterprise Club (AFEC) called the court ruling a win and criticized ADWR’s model justifying the overturned regulations as flawed.
“The Maricopa County Superior Court has struck down the Hobbs Administration’s attempt to impose a sweeping housing moratorium based on its flawed water model — a stinging loss for Katie Hobbs and a ruling that the state failed to follow proper legal procedures,” stated AFEC. “This is a major victory for transparency, accountability, and Arizona homeowners.”
Jonathan Riches, vice president for litigation and general counsel for the Goldwater Institute, represented the Home Builders Association of Central Arizona. Goldwater Institute’s vice president for legal affairs, Timothy Sandefur, hailed the ruling as a necessary check on an administrative state attempting to impose greater burdens than that which the law requires.
“The case is also a reminder of the dangerous power that the pervasive ‘administrative state’ wields over our daily lives — as unelected and unaccountable bureaucracies exert authority over every detail of construction, business, and property ownership, to cite just a few examples,” said Sandefur. “The only solution to the arbitrariness and lawlessness of these agencies is to rein in their power — and for courts to ensure that they obey the law.”
AZ Free News is your #1 source for Arizona news and politics. You can send us news tips using this link.
by Matthew Holloway | Apr 15, 2026 | Economy, News
By Matthew Holloway |
A new report from the Common Sense Institute finds that rising costs for housing, groceries, insurance, and child care continue to strain affordability for Arizona families, even as inflation has cooled from its post-pandemic peak.
According to CSI’s latest affordability rankings, Arizona is now the seventh least affordable state in the nation and ranks 45th overall when comparing household incomes to the cost of essential expenses. The state has fallen 12 spots in affordability since 2019, but remains more affordable than Florida, Oregon, New York, Massachusetts, and California, which ranked 46th through 50th, respectively.
CSI’s analysis found that Arizona households retain about 19.6% of their gross income after paying for taxes and basic expenses such as shelter, groceries, health insurance, car insurance, gasoline, and child care. That amounts to about $1,700 per month left over, compared to the national average of 24.7% ($2,170 per month).
The report found that Arizona households are spending about $19,300 more per year on essential expenses than they did in 2019, exceeding the national average increase of $15,400. CSI estimates that Arizona households have effectively lost 3.8% of their gross income to rising prices since before the pandemic.
Housing costs have continued to be the primary cause of affordability challenges in the state. According to a recent report, shelter and utility costs for Arizona households rose by $9,012 annually between 2019 and 2025, a 59% increase that ranked as the fourth-largest increase in the country. Arizona also experienced some of the nation’s fastest-growing grocery and car insurance costs during the same period.
CSI reported that grocery costs rose by $3,375, child care costs by $3,950, health insurance costs by $1,302, car insurance costs by $1,355, and gasoline costs by $313 between 2019 and 2025.
The report found that child care remains a major expense for working families. In Arizona, one full-time working parent must devote about 38% of their gross income to cover child care costs, slightly below the national average of roughly 40%. Nationally, CSI estimated that the average household spends about 16.9% of gross income on child care for preschool- and school-aged children.
“Inflation reports may show things are cooling, but that doesn’t mean life is getting more affordable for Arizonans,” said Zachary Milne, Senior Economist and Research Analyst for the Common Sense Institute AZ. “Our analysis shows the cost of everyday essentials is still significantly higher than it was before the pandemic, and for many families, incomes haven’t kept pace. That gap is what continues to drive the affordability challenges we’re seeing across Arizona today.”
CSI noted that inflation in the Phoenix area has moderated in recent months, with consumer prices rising 2.2% year over year in December. However, according to CSI’s Arizona inflation update, prices in the Phoenix metro area remain 28.9% higher than they were in December 2019, resulting in an additional $1,441 in average monthly costs for a typical Arizona household.
Arizona households are also carrying greater debt, coupled with declining credit scores and rising delinquency rates, at levels significantly higher than the national average, according to CSI’s April 1 report.
CSI detailed its data sources and methodology on its website.
Matthew Holloway is a senior reporter for AZ Free News. Follow him on X for his latest stories, or email tips to Matthew@azfreenews.com.
by Matthew Holloway | Apr 11, 2026 | News
By Staff Reporter |
Arizona House Republicans are raising concerns about Governor Katie Hobbs’ recently released state energy plan, arguing it prioritizes solar development and government programs over housing availability and energy affordability.
In a press release, the Arizona House Republican Caucus said the plan advances policies that emphasize utility-scale solar projects, expanded renewable energy deployment, and the use of state-owned land for energy infrastructure.
The criticism follows the rollout of the governor’s broader energy strategy, which includes 31 recommendations developed by the Arizona Energy Promise Task Force to address rising energy demand, data center growth, and utility costs across the state.
According to House Republicans, the plan promotes solar development on state land, including areas near existing communities, rooftop solar installations on government buildings, and participation in virtual power plant programs.
Republican lawmakers cautioned that these proposals could affect the availability of land for residential development. Citing data from the Common Sense Institute, they noted that the Hobbs administration has “identified land closest to existing residential areas as ‘best’ for solar development,” adding that approximately 276,000 acres of state land within 10 miles of incorporated cities and towns could support up to 200,000 housing units.
House Majority Leader Michael Carbone (R-LD25) said the administration’s plan emphasizes renewable energy projects and related investments while raising concerns about impacts on housing supply and costs to taxpayers.
He explained in a statement, “Hobbs is calling this an all-of-the-above energy plan. It’s not. It’s a solar-heavy political plan that puts green industry insiders ahead of taxpayers, pushes utility-scale solar onto state land that could support badly needed housing, and says nothing about lowering gas prices for Arizona families. When Hobbs says ‘all of the above,’ what she means is more wind and solar.”
The governor’s office has described the energy plan as part of a broader effort to address affordability and reliability while bringing together stakeholders from utilities, industry, and government.
In separate announcements, the Hobbs administration has highlighted programs focused on lowering energy costs, including efficiency upgrades and rebate initiatives designed to reduce utility bills for Arizona households.
Carbone criticized Hobbs’ energy plan, stating, “You cannot claim to have an energy plan for Arizona while ignoring gasoline prices, fuel supply, and the infrastructure needed to keep this state moving. This report does not confront boutique fuel problems, does not address refinery or pipeline capacity, and does not even include the industry that supplies the fuel Arizona families and businesses rely on every day. That is not all of the above. That is selective politics dressed up as policy.”
He added, “Her report is long on politics and short on answers. It does not lower costs. It does not increase housing supply. It does not put taxpayers first. House Republicans are focused on affordability, reliability, and policies that serve Arizona families, not a narrow political agenda.”
Matthew Holloway is a senior reporter for AZ Free News. Follow him on X for his latest stories, or email tips to Matthew@azfreenews.com.
