by Jonathan Eberle | Sep 16, 2025 | Economy, News
By Jonathan Eberle |
According to a new report from the Common Sense Institute (CSI), inflation in the Phoenix metro area rose 1.4% year-over-year in August, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The increase marks a climb from June’s 0.8% reading and ends a four-month stretch where local inflation hovered below 1%.
As noted by the report, the uptick comes as Arizona’s economy shows signs of slowing, with weaker job growth and a cooling housing market. Still, compared with much of the nation, inflation in Phoenix remains subdued. Among the 23 metro areas tracked monthly, Phoenix ranked 20th in year-over-year price growth, continuing a dramatic reversal from 2022 and 2023, when the region routinely topped the list for fastest-rising prices.
Nationally, inflation picked up in August, rising 2.9% from a year earlier after holding steady at 2.7% in the prior two months. Prices across the country have now exceeded the Federal Reserve’s 2% target for more than two years.
Since August 2019, consumer prices in Phoenix have climbed 30.2%, adding about $1,525 in monthly costs for the average Arizona household. Nationally, prices are up 26.3% over the same period. Typically, inflation would run closer to 10% in a five-year span. On a two-month basis, Phoenix saw a 0.9% increase from June to August, tying January for the largest short-term jump of the year. Nationally, prices rose 0.6% over that period.
Housing costs remain a key driver of Phoenix’s relatively low inflation reading. Shelter prices fell 0.1% year-over-year in August, the fourth consecutive month of negative growth. Excluding shelter, inflation in the Valley was 2.3%—still below the national average, but nearly double the headline local figure. The Federal Reserve, which aims to balance price stability with job growth, faces a complicated outlook. While local inflation has hovered below target for nearly a year, national prices have not fallen under 2.3% since 2021.
Jonathan Eberle is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
by Ethan Faverino | Sep 15, 2025 | Economy, News
By Ethan Faverino |
Arizona homeowners and prospective buyers are experiencing a cooling housing market, with the state ranking third lowest in the nation for house price growth in the first half of 2025, according to a new study by Portland Real Estate.
Median home prices in Arizona rose by just 3% from $481,388 in January to $497,500 in June, placing the state’s housing costs just 9% above the national average of $457,183.
The study, which analyzed home sale data from Realtor.com across all 50 U.S. states, highlighted a significant shift in the national housing landscape.
While states like Michigan (22% increase) and Ohio (18% increase) led the nation in price growth, Arizona’s modest 3% rise ties with Utah, Delaware, and Mississippi for the third-lowest growth.
Only Florida (1%) and Hawaii (-5%) saw smaller changes in home values.
“This represents a significant shift from the pandemic and post-pandemic years, when states like Florida, Arizona, and Utah dominated price growth charts,” said a Portland Real Estate spokesperson. “What we’re seeing now is likely the result of affordability concerns driving buyers to previously overlooked markets where housing remains relatively affordable despite recent increases.”
Nationally, the study reveals Michigan, Ohio, Rhode Island, Connecticut, and Virginia are the top-ranked states, accounting for over 40% of all prices increases nationwide.
For Arizona residents, this slower growth could signal a more stable market, offering relief to first-time home buyers and those looking to upgrade. Despite the modest increase, Arizona’s median home price remains above the national average, but the cooling trend could mean potential stabilization after years of rapid appreciation.
Ethan Faverino is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
by Jonathan Eberle | Aug 11, 2025 | Economy, News
By Jonathan Eberle |
The Greater Phoenix housing market continued its gradual reset in June 2025, signaling a clear shift in momentum from sellers to buyers according to a report from The Ravenscroft Group. Home prices dipped modestly, builders ramped up incentives, and buyers found themselves in the strongest negotiating position in years—marking a pivotal moment for one of the nation’s hottest real estate regions.
While not a repeat of the 2008 housing crash, market data shows a softening across key indicators, as elevated mortgage rates, seasonal slowdowns, and affordability pressures weigh on demand.
According to the group, the median sales price in Phoenix edged down to $449,500, a 0.3% dip from May’s $451,000. Phoenix’s Market Index—a measure of supply vs. demand—fell to 71, further cementing the area’s tilt toward a buyer’s market.
With 30-year fixed mortgage rates hovering around 6.89%, homebuilders are stepping in to maintain momentum. Many are offering interest rate buydowns into the mid-3% range, along with generous closing cost credits, appliance packages, and landscaping perks. This reality has made new construction homes particularly appealing to buyers, many of whom are priced out of the resale market due to borrowing costs.
Real estate trends varied across the Valley in June. Buckeye saw the steepest price shift at -8% while Fountain Hills and Phoenix proper each declined by -6%. Cave Creek transitioned into buyer’s market territory, and Avondale moved from a seller’s to a balanced market.
As of June, the groups says 2 cities are in seller’s markets, 7 cities are considered balanced, and 9 cities have shifted into buyer’s market territory. Outlying cities like Arizona City, Casa Grande, and Gold Canyon lean even more heavily toward buyers.
High recurring costs—such as HOA dues and special assessments—are driving buyers away from attached housing. The listing success rate for condos and townhomes dropped to 58% in May, the lowest since 2011. Manufactured homes fared worse, with fewer than half of listings resulting in a sale.
The Phoenix housing market isn’t collapsing—it’s correcting. Buyers are better positioned than they’ve been in years, and sellers are being forced to recalibrate.
This moment offers unique opportunities for those ready to act—especially in a region still driven by long-term population growth and economic expansion. But navigating it successfully will take strategy, patience, and flexibility on both sides of the deal.
Jonathan Eberle is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
by Jonathan Eberle | Mar 17, 2025 | News
By Jonathan Eberle |
Arizona’s ongoing housing crisis is taking center stage as state lawmakers, led by House Majority Leader Michael Carbone, voice strong opposition to Governor Katie Hobbs’ water policies, accusing them of exacerbating the state’s housing shortage. In a statement released last week, Carbone applauded House Speaker Steve Montenegro for authorizing a lawsuit against the Arizona Department of Water Resources (ADWR) over its adoption of a controversial 33.3% groundwater tax. Carbone claims that this policy is driving up the cost of housing and ultimately harming Arizonans who are already grappling with soaring housing prices.
At the center of the dispute is a policy known as the housing moratorium, which has been criticized for preventing the development of large swathes of land that could otherwise be used to build affordable homes. According to Carbone and other critics, the moratorium was adopted illegally, and it has led to a situation where hundreds of thousands of acres of land remain undeveloped. This, in turn, limits the amount of available space for new homes, driving demand to already crowded urban areas and increasing housing costs.
Carbone explained that “water policy is land use policy, and land use policy is housing policy,” suggesting that the restrictions on land development, while related to water conservation, are having broader economic consequences.
As a result of the moratorium, many Arizonans are facing higher costs when it comes to purchasing new homes. The housing moratorium is expected to increase home prices by $19,600 to $23,700 per house. Additionally, the proposed 33.3% groundwater tax has been predicted to add an extra $5,100 to $7,900 to the cost of new homes. These measures have raised concerns about the affordability of housing, especially in a state already struggling with rapid population growth and a housing shortage.
The Arizona House of Representatives, alongside the Home Builders Association of Central Arizona (HBACA) and members of the Arizona Senate, have joined forces in a legal battle against the ADWR’s actions. The lawsuit seeks to halt the 33.3% groundwater tax, which lawmakers argue is not only illegal but also harmful to Arizona’s housing market. Carbone criticized the governor’s policies, stating that they are not about ensuring water security but rather a means of “government control.”
“The Governor wants to dictate where and how Arizona families live, limiting all future growth to cities and driving up home prices,” Carbone said. “Affordable housing is central to the American Dream, and we are committed to fighting these illegal policies that will only make the housing crisis worse.”
The legal battle focuses on the ADWR’s authority to implement such a tax and whether it complies with state law. Proponents of the lawsuit argue that homebuilders have long demonstrated a commitment to responsible water management, having replenished 100% of the groundwater they use annually since 1995. Therefore, they contend, penalizing the homebuilding industry with additional taxes is unfair and counterproductive.
Jonathan Eberle is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
by Matthew Holloway | Jan 25, 2025 | News
By Matthew Holloway |
Governor Katie Hobbs is now facing a serious legal challenge from the Goldwater Institute, acting on behalf of the Home Builders Association of Central Arizona, to put a stop to what Goldwater described as “one of the most significant bureaucratic overreaches in Arizona’s history.”
On Wednesday, Goldwater announced the lawsuit against Arizona’s Democrat Governor stating that Hobbs is “taking illegal actions” that would worsen the state’s ongoing housing crisis by imposing a certification requirement in parts of Maricopa County that, in addition to showing a 100-year groundwater supply, must also meet the dubious standard of “unmet demand.”
Writing for Goldwater, Stacy Skankey explained, “Although the phrase ‘unmet demand’ does not exist in Arizona law, this new rule now requires homebuilders to show a 100-year groundwater supply across the entire water management area (a specially designated area with a reliance on groundwater) rather than at the site of the proposed development. In other words, if a groundwater shortage is projected anywhere within a management area, the Department of Water Resources now claims that there is insufficient groundwater elsewhere in the Valley.”
As reported by AZ Free News in December, Goldwater penned a letter to the Arizona Department of Water Resources (ADWR) urging the agency under Hobbs to reconsider its “AMA Wide Unmet Demand Rule,” noting that the new rule was in violation of the law having been imposed without legislative approval or via the required rulemaking process.
According to ADWR, “Unmet demand occurs when the model cannot simulate pumping of all demands included, thereby creating a pumping shortfall or deficit. This pumping shortfall or deficit occurs when there is insufficient saturated aquifer to satisfy the pumping demand (i.e., the depth-to-water level reaches bedrock) or when the depth to water exceeds 1,100 feet after 100 years of simulated pumping.”
Essentially, unmet demand occurs when the state’s modeling is insufficient to predict demand. In other words, the basis for shutting down Arizona housing development is that the Hobbs administration’s simulation doesn’t work.
As noted in an op-ed for the AZ Capitol Times by CEO of the Home Builders Association of Central Arizona Jackson Moll and Goldwater Institute Vice President for Litigation Jon Riches, the Phoenix Active Management Area (AMA) Groundwater Model being used by the Hobbs administration, coupled with the ‘unmet demand’ standard, moves the goalposts on developers who have mitigated impact on the state’s water needs for nearly 30 years by replenishing pumped groundwater back into the water table.
Riches said in a statement, “Decisions on vital statewide concerns like the availability of affordable housing and the responsible stewardship of our natural resources should be made through a transparent, democratic process—not imposed by executive fiat.”
Moll added, “Gov. Hobbs’ deeply inaccurate and flawed claim that Arizona is running out of groundwater is having devastating effects on housing affordability in the state, which already ranks among the worst in the country.”
Matthew Holloway is a senior reporter for AZ Free News. Follow him on X for his latest stories, or email tips to Matthew@azfreenews.com.
