Friday’s jobs report shows the American labor market is turning a corner. The unemployment rate fell to 4.4%, and average wages grew 40% faster than inflation. Rising real wages are a stark contrast to the Biden administration, where 25% inflation caused an affordability crisis that President Donald Trump and Republicans are digging us out from.
The report also showed that unproductive government jobs have fallen by nearly 300,000 over the past year, reducing a significant drag on the real economy. The number of discouraged workers declined by almost 200,000 last month, and the number of Americans quitting their jobs increased significantly, indicating that workers are increasingly confident they can find a job.
Topline job creation remains mediocre, but hires are a lagging economic indicator. In fact, the labor market is far stronger than this headline number suggests.
Recent economic growth smashed expectations, with GDP rising by more than 4% in the most recent quarter. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model suggests growth will continue above 4%, representing a historic rise in living standards. Holiday spending also exceeded expectations, with Visa and Mastercard announcing growth of more than 4%, revealing a healthy American consumer.
Small businesses, America’s job creation engine, will respond to the strong economy and consumers by expanding and hiring, setting the stage for strong job gains in the months ahead.
According to a new Citizens Bank survey of small businesses, two-thirds of small businesses expect their revenues to increase in the first quarter of this year. And a new JPMorgan Chase survey finds that three-quarters of small businesses anticipate revenue growth.
Fast economic growth and increasing Main Street revenues don’t happen in a vacuum, as many left-wing pundits would have you believe. They are the direct result of good public policy that empowers businessmen, not bureaucrats.
Exhibit A is Republicans’ Big Beautiful Bill, signed into law last July, which cut taxes for entrepreneurs and employees. The bill restored and made permanent 100% immediate expensing for small businesses, encouraging expansion, development, and hiring. It also made permanent the 20% small business tax deduction, allowing more stores to become profitable.
It expanded the standard deduction and child tax deduction and exempted tip and overtime income, giving workers what should be their largest tax refunds in American history this spring. Funds that will help folks overcome Biden’s affordability crisis.
Sadly, every Democrat in Congress voted against these significant middle-class tax cuts and in favor of the biggest tax hike in American history. Republicans need to sell this win to independents and apolitical folks every day from now until the midterms to keep control of Congress.
Mass deportations, the Epstein files, and transgender bathrooms may be the issues that matter most to the MAGA base, but they are not the ones that will get Republicans the 51% coalition needed to win. They will not motivate Martha, three doors down the block, Jorge, in the apartment complex across the street, or David and Michael, the brother duo trying to get their Main Street cafe off the ground.
No matter what the latest America First social media influencer says, preserving and expanding the opportunity economy will always be the winning message the broad conservative coalition needs to overcome the Democrat siren song of “free stuff.”
The Trump administration and Congressional Republicans have notched numerous wins to advance this engine of increased well-being and affordability. Now it’s time to connect the dots for the general public. Big job gains in the months ahead will help drive these victories home.
Alfredo Ortiz is a contributor to The Daily Caller News Foundation, CEO of Job Creators Network, author of “The Real Race Revolutionaries,” and co-host of the Main Street Matters podcast.
Arizona has hardly had an opportunity to recover from the aftershocks of Biden-omics. The trillions of dollars injected into the economy through the so-called Inflation Reduction Act continue to work their way through the system in the form of higher prices and eroded purchasing power. Open-border policies that expanded the labor supply at the lower and middle ends of the wage scale have depressed wages. And the Biden Administration’s unprecedented regulatory burden on industry, a nearly $2 trillion drag on the economy, will take far longer than a year to unwind and correct.
Unfortunately for Arizona, efforts to fix these problems at the federal level cannot be fully realized here at home because Katie Hobbs remains our Governor.
Hobbs has harmed Arizona’s recovery, overseeing a massive fall from 4th in the nation in job growth to 47th. She inherited a booming local economy after a Republican legislature and Governor ushered in a 2.5 percent income tax, incentivized entrepreneurs and small businesses, prioritized deregulation, and expanded choice and freedom in education. Yet Hobbs has managed to squander that opportunity. In fact, it takes a special skill set to be perfectly set up for success and then drive a working model into the ground.
And Hobbs knows she’s to blame. That’s why she’s now desperately trying to reinvent herself by pushing Trump-esque tax cut rhetoric while clinging to the same big-spending, high-tax policies that caused the damage in the first place. At her core, she remains a California-style Democrat who would rather govern Newsom-style than embrace the Republican solutions that actually work. That’s why, despite a Republican legislature that has delivered tax relief bills, more disciplined budgets, and common-sense deregulation, she has earned a reputation as the veto queen.
As a result, Arizonans are dealing with real affordability woes, and they best not hinge their hopes on Hobbs.
Despite responsible budgeting and repeated tax relief efforts by Republican lawmakers, affordability pressures continue to mount. Taxes are creeping higher at every level of government. Utility bills have surged. Housing costs are outpacing wage growth. And programs intended to help struggling families are losing billions to fraud, waste, and mismanagement.
That is why the 2026 legislative session must focus on Affordable Arizona…
Guess what! Inflation, growth, jobs: Conventional wisdom from America’s economic punditry was across-the-board wrong. Again.
At the year’s start the punditry predicted that Trump’s tariffs would cause a surge of inflation and would likely trigger recession. Well, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers on Thursday. Reuters’ polling of private economists predicted inflation would accelerate to 3.1% year-over-year, the fastest pace since 2023. The actual BLS figure came in at 2.7%, with core inflation even lower at 2.6%.
But the news gets better. Year-over-year inflation means it includes inflationary pressures from the end of Biden’s presidency. It’s a very lagging figure.
To understand what inflation’s doing now, and to filter out some of the data’s noise, a better gauge is to look at inflation over the last two months, which came in at 1.2% annualized, well below the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.
There is a small caveat to this good news. Due to the Schumer government shutdown, BLS was unable to collect all the usual data for the CPI report, so some items were left out. The economists who predicted accelerating inflation are thus arguing that inflation would, with all the data, have been much higher and thus excusing their bad forecasts.
However, as New York Fed President John Williams points out, the missing data “pushed down the CPI reading, probably by a tenth or so.” OK, so topline inflation was 2.8% while the annualized two-month figure goes to 1.8%, still well below consensus forecast and still below the Fed’s target rate.
What about Trump’s tariffs? To be sure, they pushed some prices up faster than they otherwise would have. But the tariffs only applied to a small fraction of all the goods and services sold in America. So, when it comes to overall inflation, the net effect could never be more than a one-time rounding error.
Further, inflation is fundamentally a monetary phenomenon. These tariff-induced price bumps occurred against a background of the underlying inflationary impulse from money supply interacting with money demand. The Fed has run a moderately restrictive policy for years, so naturally inflation is falling.
Assuming at least one of the Fed’s legion of economists can do this two-month calculation and has the temerity to show it to Chair Powell and the rest of the Fed’s leadership, then further Fed rate cuts should be assured and imminent on the road to neutral.
And what about that predicted recession? After inflation, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) soared 3.8% in the second quarter of this year, while the Atlanta Fed’s “Nowcast” of third quarter GDP is a still-impressive 3.5%.
Some of Reuters’ economists will likely portray this slight slowdown in growth as “scary” and a sign of pending recession. Nonsense. The economy is ripping, with the only recession pending threatening the salaries of those economists making silly forecasts.
Finally, those still desperate to argue economic weakness might turn to the labor market. The economy generated about 166,000 jobs a month during Biden’s last year in office. So far under Trump the economy has generated about 50,000 jobs a month. Sounds scary, but much of that decline occurred because federal employment fell by 27,000 jobs a month.
The even bigger jobs story is that employment by foreign-born workers has fallen by about 100,000 a month under Trump. This is what happens when immigration laws are enforced and the border is secured. Put it all together and private-sector native-born employment is doing very well.
And the cherry on top is that after stagnating for the four years of the Biden presidency, median real wages are now rising at a 1.6% annualized rate. Rising wages and plentiful private-sector jobs, not gimmicks like Obamacare subsidies and rent controls, are how you prosper American workers or, in today’s parlance, address “affordability.”
Just don’t be surprised if you don’t hear that from the legacy media.
J.D. Foster is a contributor to the Daily Caller News Foundation. He is the former chief economist at the Office of Management and Budget and former chief economist and senior vice president at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. He now resides in relative freedom in the hills of Idaho.
U.S. consumer price inflation slowed more than expected in November, with the latest official data showing a notable drop in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and core inflation. This key measure strips out food and energy costs, according to an update released Thursday by the Joint Economic Committee (JEC).
The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI-U), a broad measure of prices consumers pay for everyday goods and services, rose only 2.7% from November 2024 to November 2025, below the roughly 3.0% economists had expected. This marks one of the lowest readings in 2025, signaling a potential easing of inflationary pressures.
Core CPI, a measure that excludes volatile food and energy prices, also fell to 2.63% year-over-year, its lowest reading since March 2021.
Between September and November, the headline CPI increased modestly by 0.20%, while core inflation edged up by 0.16% over the same period, indicating that prices rose only slightly in recent months, even after volatility is adjusted for.
The data showed a mixed picture for specific sectors:
Food price inflation was 2.65% year-over-year, a decline of roughly 0.46 percentage points from September.
Energy price inflation rose 4.24% year-over-year, up about 1.39 percentage points from September.
Regionally, the Northeast saw the highest inflation rate between September and November at 3.1%, while the West and Midwest tied at 3.0%. The South recorded the lowest inflation at 2.2%, down from 2.7% in the September report.
In addition to prices, the JEC noted improvements in real wages during the most recent two-month period. Inflation-adjusted earnings for private nonfarm workers showed that weekly earnings rose 0.66% and hourly earnings rose 0.35%, suggesting that wage growth modestly outpaced price gains through November.
In a post to X on Thursday, the White House highlighted the slowed inflation and the pace of wage increases, writing, “President Trump is turning the economy around—pulling it back from the brink & setting the stage for a HISTORIC BOOM.”
President Trump is turning the economy around—pulling it back from the brink & setting the stage for a HISTORIC BOOM.
✅ Bringing high prices down ✅ Wages rising faster than inflation ✅ 100% of new jobs to American-born workers ✅ Gas prices ⬇️
Economists have cautioned that some of the recent inflation slowdown reflected in official figures may be affected by data collection challenges earlier this year. Independent reporting highlights that federal data gathering was disrupted by a prolonged government shutdown, which prevented the Bureau of Labor Statistics from compiling October CPI data and may have altered how price changes were measured, according to Reuters.
Nonetheless, both headline and core measures show inflation moving closer to longer-term targets, a development policymakers and markets will be watching closely as the Federal Reserve, Congress, and Trump Administration consider their next steps in 2026.
Arizona Senate Republicans released their 2026 Majority Plan on Monday, outlining policy priorities aimed at reducing the cost of living, strengthening public safety, supporting economic growth, and increasing oversight of state government.
The plan follows several years of divided government at the Capitol and builds on what Republicans describe as recent legislative accomplishments, including balanced budgets and multiple tax cuts passed without raising overall taxes. Caucus leaders say the 2026 agenda is intended to address challenges facing Arizona families, particularly rising housing costs, inflation, and concerns about government accountability.
“Arizonans want affordable living, safe neighborhoods, and a government that strengthens — not weakens — our economy,” Senate President Warren Petersen said in a statement. “While the Governor’s vetoes stall progress, Senate Republicans remain focused on protecting taxpayers, upholding Arizona’s freedoms, and preventing the radical left from turning our state into California.”
A central component of the plan is a proposed tax and budget framework aimed at providing relief from rising prices. Senate Republicans say they are pursuing reductions in state taxes on tips and overtime, expanded deductions for seniors, and policies to support small businesses. Caucus leaders estimate the proposals would return more than $1 billion to taxpayers over three years while pairing tax relief with restrained government spending.
Housing affordability is another major focus. The plan cites regulatory barriers, slow permitting processes, and executive-level actions as factors contributing to Arizona’s housing shortage. Republicans say they support reforms to speed up construction, reduce fees, and limit local restrictions on new housing, while aligning development decisions with water availability data.
“Arizonans can’t afford policies that stall development, inflate housing prices, or jeopardize our water security,” Senate President Pro Tempore T.J. Shope said. “Senate Republicans are advancing practical, data-driven solutions that support responsible growth and keep Arizona livable for the next generation.”
Water policy is addressed alongside housing, particularly as negotiations over the Colorado River continue. The plan emphasizes the Legislature’s statutory role in those talks and calls for shared conservation efforts among basin states to avoid placing disproportionate burdens on Arizona.
Public safety proposals include addressing staffing shortages in correctional facilities, increasing oversight of state agencies, and strengthening accountability for violent offenders and probation violators. The plan also reiterates support for Second Amendment protections and public safety pension stability.
Senate Majority Leader John Kavanagh criticized the current administration’s record, saying, “Arizonans deserve leadership that solves problems, not a wolf in sheep’s clothing who blocks solutions and hopes voters won’t notice.”
Additional priorities outlined in the plan include border security enforcement, election integrity measures, education policy, transportation and infrastructure investment, emergency preparedness, artificial intelligence safeguards, family court reform, veterans’ services, and oversight of agencies such as AHCCCS and the Department of Child Safety. Opening day of the second regular session of the 57th Legislature is scheduled for January 12, when many of the proposals are expected to be introduced.
Jonathan Eberle is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
