January’s jobs report smashed expectations and signals a turning point in the labor market where job creation catches up with broader economic conditions. The report shows 130,000 jobs created, the unemployment rate falling to 4.3%, and labor force participation rising.
Economic growth last quarter was above 4% and is projected to be 4% again this quarter. The Dow Jones recently reached 50,000, as I predicted last fall. And gas prices and inflation are low.
Now workers are starting to feel the benefit in terms of associated job creation and wage growth. The jobs report shows workers’ real wages continuing to significantly rise, a stark contrast to their declines during the Biden administration.
An added bonus: Parasitical federal government jobs continue to decline, falling 34,000 last month and more than 10% since Donald Trump took office. Government jobs too often padded previous employment reports when the relevant metric should be productive private-sector job creation.
Strong labor-market, economic, and financial-market growth doesn’t happen in a vacuum. It’s the result of good public policy that empowers Main Street over big government.
Exhibit A is last year’s Republican tax cuts. These tax cuts prevented the largest middle-class tax hike in history from occurring. They empowered small businesses by restoring and making permanent 100% immediate expensing and locking in a 20% deduction on earnings. These tax cuts are game changers for job creators, incentivizing them to expand, hire, and raise wages.
Despite delivering one of the most consequential tax cuts in modern American history, however, Republicans are somehow trailing Democrats on the issue of taxes, according to new Fox News polling. Even though every single Democrat voted against them.
This isn’t just backwards. It’s political malpractice fueled by a media ecosystem that has abandoned facts in favor of Democratic talking points. Voters have been told again and again — by headlines, by cable news panels, by progressive activists masquerading as journalists — that Republicans are the party of “tax breaks for billionaires.”
In reality, these are middle-class tax cuts that actually make the tax code more progressive.
A stronger economy, rising 401(k) balances, and higher living standards will help blunt the impact of this misinformation and convert some independents. But small businesses and conservatives have a responsibility to spread the word to right this polling wrong.
Every small business with a tax-savings story needs to speak up in their communities, with their employees, and on their social media, explaining how these tax cuts have helped them survive and thrive. That’s the least they can do in return for these tax savings.
Meanwhile, conservatives need to start singing from the same page on these uniting economic issues. A strong opportunity, affordability, and standard-of-living message, combined with a focus on deporting violent criminals and sanity on culture issues, is the winning approach Republicans need to boost their polling and hold onto Congress this fall.
The first step is connecting the dots between small-business tax cuts, job creation, and affordability.
Alfredo Ortiz is a contributor to The Daily Caller News Foundation, CEO of Job Creators Network, author of “The Real Race Revolutionaries,” and co-host of the Main Street Matters podcast.
The latest survey from the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) reveals that small business optimism in the U.S. dipped slightly at the start of 2026. The Small Business Optimism Index declined by just 0.2 points in January to 99.3, yet it remains above the 52-year average of 98.
Among the index’s 10 key components, 7 declined, while only 3 improved. The positive standout shift came in expectations for real sales volumes, which jumped by 6 points, with a net 16% of owners now anticipating stronger sales in the coming quarter.
However, uncertainty notably climbed, as the Uncertainty Index increased by 7 points to 91. Much of this rise stemmed from more owners expressing doubt about whether the current environment favors business expansion.
“While GDP is rising, small businesses are still waiting for noticeable economic growth,” stated NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “Despite this, more owners are reporting better business health and anticipating higher sales.”
In Arizona and similar regions, a cautious mood persists, with many business owners hesitant to pursue expansion. NFIB Arizona State Director Chad Heinrich noted that ongoing tax-related uncertainties are adding to these concerns, while NFIB data shows taxes are the leading problem for 18% of business owners.
“The optimism index remains stable, but small business owners remain cautious about the future and whether it’s a good time to expand their operations,” explained Heinrich. “The limbo Main Street Arizonans find themselves in this tax season only exacerbates their uncertainty. Small business owners need tax conformity from policymakers now.”
A new addition to this month’s report, the Small Business Employment Index, registered 101.6 in January—down nearly a point from December but still 1.5 points above its historical average of 100 and marginally higher than the 2025 average. This suggests the labor market for small businesses remains relatively balanced.
According to the NFIB Monthly Jobs Report, overall business conditions showed improvement in owners’ self-assessments, with 14% now rating their operations as excellent (up 5 points) and fewer classifying them as only fair (down 7 points to 27%).
Investment activity picked up as 60% of owners reported capital expenditures over the past six months—the highest share since late 2023—mostly directed toward new equipment.
On the labor front, challenges eased somewhat, with businesses citing labor quality as their top issue; the share fell for the third straight month to 16%, and unfilled job openings dropped to 31% (still above the long-run norm).
Inflationary pressures linger, however, as 26% of owners reported raising prices in January, and 32% plan increases in the next few months.
Ethan Faverino is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
According to the Joint Economic Committee, the United States recorded a total trade deficit of $56.82 billion in November 2025. This figure represented a substantial monthly increase of $27.62 billion from the revised October level, reflecting a sharp widening in the shortfall.
Despite the month-over-month surge, the November deficit stood 27% below the 12-month average, indicating that the broader trend continued to show improvement relative to recent periods.
The rise in the overall deficit was driven largely by developments in goods trade, where the shortfall expanded significantly. The goods trade deficit reached $86.90 billion in November, up $27.92 billion from October, and remained 18% below the 12- month average.
In contrast, the services sector provided a counterbalance, posting a surplus of $30.08 billion. This service surplus rose modestly by $298 million from the previous month and stood 7% above the 12-month average.
Total exports for November declined to $292.05 billion, down $10.87 billion from October, though the figure remained 3% above the 12-month average. Goods exports fell to $185.64 billion, reflecting a decrease of $11.10 billion month-over-month, while services exports edged higher to $106.41 billion, up $237 million.
On the import side, total imports climbed to $348.88 billion, an increase of $16.75 billion from October, yet levels are still 4% below the 12-month average. Goods imports rose to $272.54 billion, up $16.81 billion, while services imports dipped slightly to $76.34 billion, down $61 million.
Compared with November 2024, the November 2025 trade deficit showed improvement, narrowing by 28.75% to $79.75 billion. Exports grew 5.88% year-over-year, while imports declined 1.89% over the same period.
Over the rolling 12 months through November 2025, the cumulative total trade deficit stood at $936.45 billion. This reflected a goods trade deficit of $1.27 trillion, partially offset by a services surplus of $335.80 billion. Total exports during this period reached $3.42 trillion, with goods accounting for $2.19 trillion and services $1.23 trillion. Total imports amounted to $4.35 trillion, including $3.46 trillion in goods and $892.72 billion in services.
Among major trading partners, the largest goods trade deficits over the 12-month period occurred with China, with net exports of -$214.61 billion (representing 17.12% of the total goods deficit), Mexico at -$197.36 billion (15.74%), and Vietnam at -$171.62 billion (13.69%).
The U.S. recorded its largest goods trade surpluses with the Netherlands ($59.99 billion), the United Kingdom ($30.39 billion), and Hong Kong ($26.89 billion).
The leading export destinations were Mexico ($334.37 billion), Canada ($331.25 billion), and China ($110.22 billion), which together counted for 35.84% of total U.S. exports. Oppositely, the top sources were Mexico ($531.73 billion), Canada ($386.75 billion), and China ($324.83 billion), comprising 36.37% of all U.S. imports.
Year-over-year price inflation for exports was 3.29%, with agricultural exports rising 2.64% and non-agricultural exports increasing 3.29%. Import price inflation was notably higher at 7.58% overall, driven by an 8.25% increase in non-fuel imports, while fuel prices declined 1.72%.
Exchange rate movements between November 2024 and November 2025 showed the U.S. dollar weakening against the Chinese yuan 2.7%, the euro 9.6%, the British pound 4.5%, and the Mexican peso 10.5% while strengthening against the Japanese yen 4.6%.
Ethan Faverino is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
Arizona State Representative Chris Lopez (R-LD16) is leading legislation to establish a Commercial Property Assessed Capital Expenditure (C-PACE) program in Arizona, aiming to expand private investment, modernize infrastructure, and support economic growth in Pinal County and across the state.
The legislation, House Bill 2824, would authorize local governments to offer C-PACE financing for commercial and industrial properties. The market-driven tool allows property owners to access low-cost, long-term private capital for projects that improve energy efficiency, conserve water, enhance resiliency, and fund infrastructure upgrades.
According to HB 2824, the “C-PACE Program” in Arizona would be defined as “a special assessment program that provides commercial property assessed capital expenditure financing for eligible improvements” that local governments may establish through voluntary special assessment agreements with property owners.
Eligible projects under the proposed program include investments in energy systems, water and wastewater infrastructure, building retrofits, manufacturing facilities, agricultural processing, and logistics development, all sectors central to rapid economic growth.
Rep. Chris Lopez Champions C-PACE Legislation to Drive Economic Growth & Infrastructure Investment in Pinal County
“Pinal County is one of the fastest-growing regions in Arizona, and we need smart, market-driven tools to help our communities keep pace. C-PACE unlocks private… pic.twitter.com/poQ60dkNAO
“Pinal County is one of the fastest-growing regions in Arizona, and we need smart, market-driven tools to help our communities keep pace,” Lopez said. “C-PACE unlocks private capital for major commercial and industrial projects without raising taxes or creating new government debt.”
Unlike traditional public financing, which leans heavily on incurring public debt, C-PACE financing relies entirely on private investment. Participation in the program would allow property owners to repay the financing through a special assessment tied to the property, a structure which advocates say provides long-term certainty for lenders and developers while shielding taxpayers.
Similar Commercial Property Assessed Capital Expenditure (C-PACE) frameworks have already been authorized in other states, including North Carolina, Idaho, and Arkansas. Arizona would join over 40 states that have authorized C-PACE, according to the release from Lopez, “helping unlock billions of dollars in private investment nationwide.”
“As Pinal County continues to attract major employers and advanced manufacturing facilities, we must ensure our communities have the infrastructure to support that growth,” Rep. Lopez added. “This legislation gives cities and counties another tool to compete, attract investment, and build for the future.”
The Republican faction of Congress’ Joint Economic Committee (JEC) reported inflation as “hold[ing] steady” in its monthly update released last week.
JEC Republicans reported in a press release accompanying the update that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) “remained relatively steady” at just under 2.7 percent year over year in December.
The coalition stated that November’s end CPI (2.74 percent) represented “the biggest [inflation] drop” since March 2025.
Food and energy prices went up by half a percent to almost three percent from 2024 to 2025, respectively; the latter by far outpacing the former.
Food price inflation hit 3.07 percent, up .56 percent year over year. Energy price inflation hit 2.30 percent, up by 2.82 percent year over year.
The headline CPI-U remained relatively steady ending at 2.68% y/y in December, meeting expectations. Core CPI, which excludes food & energy, was 2.64% y/y, compared to 2.63% in November. Y/y, food price inflation was 3.07%, up 0.56pp & energy price inflation was 2.30%, up by…
— Joint Economic Committee Republicans (@JECRepublicans) January 13, 2026
These price increases were felt differently based on region. Those in the Northeast were hit hardest by inflation (3.3 percent), then the West (2.9 percent), and then the Midwest (2.7 percent). The South felt it the least of all the regions, with inflation hitting 2.2 percent.
Income year over year overall saw increases: an increase in 1.07 percent for all employees and a .57 percent increase in weekly earnings. There was a “virtually unchanged” decline in hourly earnings of .01 percent.
President Donald Trump broke down this latest report as part of his address on the state of the economy in Detroit last Tuesday.
Trump said the U.S. has experienced “the greatest year in history” in terms of its finances.
“Under our administration, growth is exploding, productivity is soaring, investment is booming, incomes are rising, inflation is defeated. America is respected again like never before,” said Trump. “There’s never been numbers like this.”
Trump said the stagflation (low growth, high inflation) that took place under his predecessor, Joe Biden, was “a disaster” for the country. Trump claimed the current economy has “the highest growth” it’s ever had.
“The Trump economic boom has officially begun,” said Trump.
The president said he would work with Venezuela on oil, and aims to reduce gas prices beyond its current six-year low.
Trump called Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell “a real stiff.” He expressed a desire to have a high-performing market matched with lower interest rates, not higher — he said the former arrangement was the norm years ago.
“Our growth potential is unlimited and could be much higher if we went back to sanity,” said Trump. “We announce good numbers and we see the stock market drop. And I say ‘What the hell is going on?’”
Trump said he secured commitments for over $18 trillion in new investments into the country, compared to Biden’s under $1 trillion secured in four years.
A White House press release following Trump’s remarks maintained that the latest inflation report came in below economists’ expectations. Their statement compared Trump’s core inflation (2.4 percent) as “much lower” than former President Joe Biden’s 3.3 percent annual rate.
Their summary also emphasized that wages are “rising” on track to four percent: an estimated $1,100 real wage gain among private sector workers, and $1,300 real annual earnings gain among goods-producing workers.
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