by Matthew Holloway | Mar 26, 2025 | News
By Matthew Holloway |
On Monday, Common Sense Institute (CSI) Arizona released a new report on Arizona’s water resources. In the report, CSI made a determination that contrasts wildly with commonly preconceived notions that a supply scarcity issue is Arizona’s largest problem. Instead, the group called out gaps in “infrastructure and ingenuity.”
In a press release, CSI advised, “If Arizona opts to address its water future by ending growth and limiting development, rather than investing in infrastructure and addressing water policies, the Grand Canyon state faces the potential of billions in lost economic activity and thousands of new jobs.“
Glenn Farley, CSI Arizona’s Director of Policy & Research explained, “In general, Arizona’s water challenges are not just about scarcity; they are about infrastructure and ingenuity. For centuries, Arizona’s dry central valley has thrived through engineering solutions that move water from areas of plenty to areas of need. Leaders today have options that could lead to very different outcomes for the future economy of our state. Our data finds that investing in innovative infrastructure and giving property owners the legal and physical flexibility they need to access the water our economy demands, will result in increased economic growth for the state of Arizona.”
In particular, the report took aim at the home-building moratorium in the Phoenix Active Management Area (AMA) imposed by Governor Katie Hobbs’ administration. According to CSI, should the moratorium be maintained for the next decade, Arizona could see a catastrophic $2 billion in lost GDP. However, the report adds, “Augmenting water supply by 300,000 acre-feet could create $4.7 billion in net state product.”
The report details that the expansion of “legal and physical infrastructure to move and trade water can help increase water availability without forced cuts or forced reallocation.”
CSI Arizona highlighted a 2018 controversial water deal between an investment firm representing the owners of farmland in Cibola, Arizona, near the Colorado River, and the town of Queen Creek that enabled Queen Creek to pay a private landowner $24 million for an annual allotment of 2,033 acre-feet of water. In other words: “the voluntary retirement of legacy agricultural farmland” through a private sale allowed a city without assured water rights through the Phoenix AMA to obtain the water needed to grow.
The report found: “Political and legal structures that acknowledge and facilitate, rather than impede, these kinds of transactions can help manage Arizona’s ongoing transition and continued growth. Furthermore, the ensuing injection of money and capital into the rural sources can be used for local economic development, creating a win-win.”
The think tank also called upon Arizona lawmakers to seek out alternative external sources of water citing the potential for desalination operations in Mexico at the Sea of Cortez, just 250 miles from Phoenix.
Citing the successes of Israel and Singapore to develop such systems, CSI noted, “While existing studies suggest the cost of desalination is high, approximately $2,000/acre-foot, costs may decline as the technology matures. Additionally, consumers may be more willing to pay if existing scarcity issues are not resolved.” Indeed, Israel currently relies upon desalination from the Mediterranean and Red Seas for over half of its fresh water supply.
According to a USA Today story from 2021, officials from Arizona, Nevada, California and Mexico have been exploring collaboration on such a project in exchange for trading some of the drinking water produced for a portion of Mexico’s allocation of the Colorado River.
Matthew Holloway is a senior reporter for AZ Free News. Follow him on X for his latest stories, or email tips to Matthew@azfreenews.com.
by Matthew Holloway | Mar 17, 2025 | Economy, News
By Matthew Holloway |
In a new report from Common Sense Institute (CSI) Arizona, inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the Phoenix metro area, remained under the 2% target for the sixth consecutive month. In February, CSI Arizona recorded a year-over-year inflation rate of 1.8% for the metropolitan area. The national rate is currently +2.8% year-over-year, although it is down since President Donald Trump took office.
According to CSI Arizona, the largest driver of inflation has long been the cost of shelter, which was up +0.7% in February with annual shelter costs rising 1.2% year over year. In a post to X, CSI summarized the report stating, “Phoenix is outperforming most of the country when it comes to rising prices.”
The report noted, “Among the 23 metro areas measured in the CPI each month, Phoenix ranks 22 in year-over-year inflation (2nd lowest). This is a dramatic change from 2022-2023, when the region consistently ranked among the highest.”
CSI Arizona goes on to observe in the report that the rate of national inflation has historically followed trends in the federal deficit with an approximate lag of 12-24 months and local or state levels are subject to regional dynamics as well, but tend to correspond with the national rate. In December, Fox 10 reported that homelessness in Arizona saw a 3.5% increase since 2023, with over 14,000 people experiencing homelessness.
Nathan Smith, CEO of Central Arizona Shelter Services told the outlet, “The cost of living continues to outstrip what people are making, and we’re seeing that we’re at a bit of an inflection point here in Arizona as we are facing the highest eviction rate that we’ve ever had.”
Matthew Holloway is a senior reporter for AZ Free News. Follow him on X for his latest stories, or email tips to Matthew@azfreenews.com.
by Staff Reporter | Mar 13, 2025 | Education, News
By Staff Reporter |
A new dashboard tracks the school closures taking place throughout Arizona.
The dashboard comes from the Common Sense Institute (CSI), a nonpartisan organization which primarily produces research on Arizona’s economy.
Since January, those schools which have closed or consolidated operated in the Maricopa, Navajo, and Yavapai counties within the following school districts: Cave Creek, Phoenix Elementary, Mesa Unified, Isaac, Edkey Inc. – Sequoia Village, and American Heritage Academy. Schools closed or consolidated included Lone Mountain Elementary School, Desert Sun Academy, Dunbar School, Heard School, George Washington Academy, and American Heritage Academy Camp Verde.
Data for the dashboard came from the Auditor General and Arizona Department of Education.
CSI also published a line graph chart detailing spending, inflation, enrollment and student proficiencies in math and reading from 2010 to 2024. This data came from the Arizona State Library, Arizona Department of Education, and Joint Legislative Budget Committee.
CSI director of policy and research, Glenn Farley, said the dashboard data indicates a pattern of declining public school enrollment rather than indefinite growth. Per this dashboard, school enrollment peaked over a decade ago.
“Arizona’s public school system was built on the assumption that enrollment would continue to grow indefinitely, but the reality has changed,” said Farley. “With district enrollment peaking over a decade ago and alternative schooling options gaining traction, closures are a natural consequence of a system adjusting to new realities.”
CSI’s dashboard reflects a severe disparity between public school spending, enrollment, and student proficiencies in math and reading. While spending increased by 80 percent since 2010, math and reading proficiencies dropped by 13 and nine percent, respectively, and enrollment dropped by one percent.
Spending far outpaced inflation, growing at over twice the rate: while spending increased by 80 percent, though inflation increased by only 36 percent.
CSI also found that the school-aged population departed from the total population trend around 2020 due to demographic changes. Combined enrollment in public kindergarten programs declined 13 percent since the 2010-11 school year, while total public school enrollment grew three percent.
The state’s school choice program, the Empowerment Scholarship Account program, grew to over 87,200 students as of Monday.
CSI clarified that demographic decline wasn’t the sole reason for changes in the school-aged population. CSI reported that charter school enrollment nearly doubled from 2020 to 2022, 55 percent of surveyed private schools experienced enrollment growth in the 2021 to 2022 school year, and homeschooling grew from two to 11 percent of the population during the pandemic (though that number dropped to around six percent in recent years).
An accompanying CSI report declared the disparities in funding, enrollment, and outcomes were signs of disconnect with the current state of enrollment and capacity.
“Charter, private, and home schools have continued growing, but Arizona’s district public school enrollment peaked over a decade ago,” read the CSI report. “A massive injection of new funding and resources over the past few years has led to significant new spending and expansion by these schools, though, which are now having to deal with the consequences of this disconnect between enrollment and capacity.”
AZ Free News is your #1 source for Arizona news and politics. You can send us news tips using this link.
by Matthew Holloway | Jan 29, 2025 | Education, News
By Matthew Holloway |
In a recent report, the Common Sense Institute of Arizona (CSI) addressed the gradual slowing of enrollment in Arizona’s Empowerment Scholarship Account (ESA) program and traditional public school classrooms. The report shows that despite narratives for one or the other, the decline in both can be explained quite directly as a matter of demographics and parental choice.
In a press release issued Monday, CSI explained, “Headlines about declining enrollment and the subsequent financial struggles this creates in Arizona’s public schools have caught the state’s attention. However, CSI’s data shows this shift was inevitable, driven by dramatic demographic changes and a shift in enrollment preferences during the pandemic.”
Among CSI’s findings, it found that the school-age population of Arizona peaked in 2021 and is projected to decrease by 40,000 by 2028, heavily impacting an educational system which was structurally predicated on the assumption of a continually growing population.
CSI added, “The 2012 kindergarten cohort—the state’s largest ever—is now preparing to graduate. Future K-12 enrollment is not expected to grow in the foreseeable future.”
CSI observed further that during the COVID-19 lockdowns, Arizona’s public schools lost 50,000 enrolled students from 2020-2021. Only 18,000 of those students re-enrolled in charter schools with the remaining approximate 32,000 otherwise unaccounted for. It is likely that this number presents a combination of expanded home schooling, relocation out of Arizona, and even enrollment in private schools. Indeed, the report indicates that private school enrollment spiked by 33% over that period with homeschooling experiencing a surge from 2% of the total student population to 11%, and settling back to 6% as of today.
Glenn Farley, CSI Arizona’s Director of Policy and Research summarized, “Arizona’s classrooms are entering a new era. The numbers have been clear for years: the system built for growth has reached its peak. Moving forward, policymakers must adapt to a smaller, more diverse student population and rethink how we allocate resources.”
The CSI report noted the effect on budgetary considerations has been extreme. “Declining public school enrollments since 2020 reduced public K-12 funding formula costs by an estimated $450 million/year, and growing, compared to pre-pandemic trends. Since last year, the universal ESA program has returned these ‘missing kids’ to the public K-12 rolls – reinvesting prior ‘savings’ into education.”
The ESA, a subject of controversy in the state legislature, has reached a “steady state” according to CSI, with the recent period of rapid growth unlikely to be repeated and future increases owing almost exclusively to parental and student choice.
CSI concluded, “Demographic changes likely mean fewer school-aged children and lower overall enrollment across Arizona’s publicly funded K-12 options over the next ten years. And ultimately it is this demographic change, and pandemic-era changes in parental behavior that are changing K-12 in Arizona – and not-so-much universal ESA itself.”
As previously reported by AZ Free News, Governor Katie Hobbs’ repeated attacks on ESAs have centered primarily on the narrative of the program alternately being “rife with waste, fraud and abuse,” being costly to the state budget, and calling for a repeal of the popular program.
Matthew Holloway is a senior reporter for AZ Free News. Follow him on X for his latest stories, or email tips to Matthew@azfreenews.com.
by Daniel Stefanski | Jan 17, 2025 | Education, News
By Daniel Stefanski |
As another legislative session begins in Arizona, Republicans and Democrats are again bringing the all-important issue of school choice to the forefront of the public debate.
On Monday, Governor Katie Hobbs ushered in the start of the 57th Regular Session of the Arizona Legislature with her State of the State address, where she took time to criticize the Empowerment Scholarship Accounts (ESA) program. In her speech, Hobbs said, “The current program is unchecked, flawed, and rife with exploitation. Three years ago, it went far beyond its original purpose, which was to support kids with special needs and military families. Today, it has ballooned into a billion-dollar boondoggle increasingly scamming Arizonans. Other entitlements funded by taxpayers have strict oversight and income requirements. Yet the ESA program has the privilege of virtually no safeguards.”
Hobbs proposed changes to the ESA program for a “balanced solution that supports families and finally brings real and effective guardrails to ESAs.” Her solution was to “institute responsible income caps, ensure taxpayers know where their money is going, and create real accountability for taxpayer dollars.”
The governor’s remarks were met with immediate criticism from Republicans and others who support the expanded ESA program. Superintendent of Public Instruction Tom Horne said, “Under my leadership, the department has done a full-court press against waste and fraud. I hired both a program auditor and an investigator, which had not been done before. I require that every expenditure be for a valid educational purpose and have been attacked for doing that. The Governor needs to pay more attention to what is going on. She gets an ‘F’.”
Senate President Pro Tempore T.J. Shope added, “We will also protect parental choice, so that every child in the state has the ability to succeed in the classroom, no matter their zip code or financial status.”
Common Sense Institute Arizona wrote, “In her State of the State address, Governor Hobbs asked lawmakers to compare Arizona’s ESA program to other government entitlement programs with respect to accountability and transparency. Luckily, we already did! And it turns out that improper payment rates in the Arizona ESA program are a fraction of those in other government programs like Medicaid, Unemployment Insurance, and SNAP.”
Jason Bedrick said, “The voters made their will clear by re-electing those who supported ESAs and expanding their legislative majority. The legislature should reject Gov. Hobbs’ attempts to undermine ESA families.”
On the flip side, Governor Hobbs’ comments received support from her allies, who have long attempted to shrink, regulate, or eliminate the historic ESA expansion program in Arizona. Save Our Schools Arizona Executive Director Beth Lewis responded, “It is time to end the rampant waste, fraud, and abuse in the universal ESA voucher program. We commend Governor Hobbs for championing public education and pushing for much-needed voucher reform. We sincerely hope legislators like Senate President Petersen who name ‘fiscal responsibility’ their top priority will bring long-overdue guardrails to this irresponsible program, which now costs taxpayers nearly $1 billion annually.”
Hobbs and legislative Republicans will continue to bicker about the future of school choice in Arizona, but not much – if anything – will be done this year (and likely the next) to regulate ESAs per the governor’s insatiable desire. Over the past two years, Arizona Senate President Warren Petersen successfully fended off ferocious political attacks that targeted ESAs and other school choice opportunities for Arizonans. He will again be counted upon, along with his Republican colleagues in the Arizona House and Senate, to protect one of the top states in the country for school choice.
Daniel Stefanski is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
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