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Research Reveals Declining Enrollment In Arizona’s Public Schools Was Predictable

January 29, 2025

By Matthew Holloway |

In a recent report, the Common Sense Institute of Arizona (CSI) addressed the gradual slowing of enrollment in Arizona’s Empowerment Scholarship Account (ESA) program and traditional public school classrooms. The report shows that despite narratives for one or the other, the decline in both can be explained quite directly as a matter of demographics and parental choice.

In a press release issued Monday, CSI explained, “Headlines about declining enrollment and the subsequent financial struggles this creates in Arizona’s public schools have caught the state’s attention. However, CSI’s data shows this shift was inevitable, driven by dramatic demographic changes and a shift in enrollment preferences during the pandemic.”

Among CSI’s findings, it found that the school-age population of Arizona peaked in 2021 and is projected to decrease by 40,000 by 2028, heavily impacting an educational system which was structurally predicated on the assumption of a continually growing population.

CSI added, “The 2012 kindergarten cohort—the state’s largest ever—is now preparing to graduate. Future K-12 enrollment is not expected to grow in the foreseeable future.”

CSI observed further that during the COVID-19 lockdowns, Arizona’s public schools lost 50,000 enrolled students from 2020-2021. Only 18,000 of those students re-enrolled in charter schools with the remaining approximate 32,000 otherwise unaccounted for. It is likely that this number presents a combination of expanded home schooling, relocation out of Arizona, and even enrollment in private schools. Indeed, the report indicates that private school enrollment spiked by 33% over that period with homeschooling experiencing a surge from 2% of the total student population to 11%, and settling back to 6% as of today.

Glenn Farley, CSI Arizona’s Director of Policy and Research summarized, “Arizona’s classrooms are entering a new era. The numbers have been clear for years: the system built for growth has reached its peak. Moving forward, policymakers must adapt to a smaller, more diverse student population and rethink how we allocate resources.”

The CSI report noted the effect on budgetary considerations has been extreme. “Declining public school enrollments since 2020 reduced public K-12 funding formula costs by an estimated $450 million/year, and growing, compared to pre-pandemic trends. Since last year, the universal ESA program has returned these ‘missing kids’ to the public K-12 rolls – reinvesting prior ‘savings’ into education.”

The ESA, a subject of controversy in the state legislature, has reached a “steady state” according to CSI, with the recent period of rapid growth unlikely to be repeated and future increases owing almost exclusively to parental and student choice.

CSI concluded, “Demographic changes likely mean fewer school-aged children and lower overall enrollment across Arizona’s publicly funded K-12 options over the next ten years. And ultimately it is this demographic change, and pandemic-era changes in parental behavior that are changing K-12 in Arizona – and not-so-much universal ESA itself.”

As previously reported by AZ Free News, Governor Katie Hobbs’ repeated attacks on ESAs have centered primarily on the narrative of the program alternately being “rife with waste, fraud and abuse,” being costly to the state budget, and calling for a repeal of the popular program.

Matthew Holloway is a senior reporter for AZ Free News. Follow him on X for his latest stories, or email tips to Matthew@azfreenews.com.

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