Polling Shows Close Senate Race Between Kari Lake And Ruben Gallego

Polling Shows Close Senate Race Between Kari Lake And Ruben Gallego

by | May 30, 2024 | News

By Matthew Holloway |

A recent editorial from The Daily Kos’ Joan McCarter, citing the past talking points of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has declared confidently that “The GOP has a ‘candidate quality’ Senate problem—again.” Curiously, among three other Republican Senate candidates, McCarter included Arizona’s Kari Lake among the supposedly problematic candidates. However, recent polling doesn’t appear to bear out the assessment.

According to polling from Florida Atlantic University PolCom Lab/Mainstreet Research, taken Sunday, May 19th to Tuesday, May 21st, 2024. the race for the Seat of Independent former Democrat Senator Kyrsten Sinema is a highly competitive one with Congressman Ruben Gallego (D-AZ-03) leading Kari Lake by a mere 6.6 points in a poll that was weighted in favor of 2020 Joe Biden voters.

Polling from Emerson showed Gallego’s diminishing lead has dropped to two points, statistically putting them neck and neck. Alex Nicoll, Lake’s campaign spokesperson, told Breitbart, “Ruben Gallego can try to distance himself from Biden all he wants, but he won’t be able to run from his progressive record. Ruben has voted with Joe Biden 100% of the time, even more than radicals like AOC. Arizonans know it, and they know that Biden-Gallego policies are responsible for the pain they feel at home.”

In a memo released Tuesday the Lake campaign suggested that undecided voters, many of whom are polling toward former President Donald Trump, could break for Lake.

“Among the all-important undecided voters, Joe Biden has a 74% disapproval rating and Gallego only has a 35% unfavorable rating among those voters. Once voters know that Gallego has been a rubber stamp for Biden, those undecided voters will coalesce behind Kari Lake. Not to mention, the generic Republican leads in the ballot, 48%-45% and among the undecided they prefer the Republican, 55%/36%. These undecided voters are more Republican and they vote for Donald Trump, 55%/26% which means the undecideds should be significantly more inclined to vote for Kari Lake.”

Reporting from The Hill, dated May 23rd citing a new Republican Primary Poll from Noble Predictive Insights (NPI) pitting Lake against Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb, indicated a narrowing race as well. The poll showed 46% of polled Arizona Republicans support Lake with 21 percent supporting Lamb with a quarter of voters still undecided.

NPI founder Mike Noble said in a statement, “Something we don’t typically see is an increase in undecided voters this close to primary election day. While Lake remains the frontrunner, her diminishing lead and the growing number of undecided voters indicate a volatile race.”

Compared to the unopposed run of Rep. Gallego who was for all intents beknighted by the Arizona Democratic Party, the robust Republican primary could indeed be seen as a far healthier process enabling GOP voters to hash out the best possible candidate rather than settling for a default candidate.

The Daily Kos, along with many other outlets have also pointed to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell for evidence of this narrative noting that McConnell “left Arizona off his list of places where the party is certain to play,” withholding ad purchases in the state according to Politico. But reporting from CNN paints a different picture of McConnell, for all his disagreements with former President Donald Trump and Lake, as taking a ‘watch and wait’ stance.

“We don’t have an ideological litmus test,” McConnell said. “We want to win in November.”

McConnell, speaking on behalf of the National Republican Senatorial Committee told the outlet, “We’ll be involved in any primary where that seems to be necessary to get a high-quality candidate, and we’ll be involved in every general election where we have a legitimate shot of winning – regardless of the philosophy of the nominee.”

As CNN noted, he told interviewers there’s a “high likelihood” that GOP leaders would wait and see who emerges victorious from the primary before deciding whether or not to engage in funding the race. McConnell was firm in his refusal to discuss support for Lake or any other candidate.

However, he did add, “I didn’t mention Wisconsin; I think clearly you’d have to have an outstanding candidate. And I think there are some other places where with the right candidate, we might be able to compete – in Nevada, Arizona.”

So in short: in Arizona anyway, the notion that the Republican party has a ‘Candidate Problem’ as McConnell infamously claimed in 2022, doesn’t appear to be the case, even to him. The primary will take place on July 30, 2024, when Arizona Republicans will decide to back Kari Lake or Sheriff Lamb against Ruben Gallego.

Matthew Holloway is a senior reporter for AZ Free News. Follow him on X for his latest stories, or email tips to Matthew@azfreenews.com.

Rep. Grijalva Intervenes For Solar Lobbyists In Puerto Rico Despite Ignoring Arizona’s Energy Interests

Rep. Grijalva Intervenes For Solar Lobbyists In Puerto Rico Despite Ignoring Arizona’s Energy Interests

by | May 28, 2024 | News

By Matthew Holloway |

Congressman Raúl Grijalva (D-AZ-07), long known for both his advocacy of ‘Green New Deal’-style energy policy and for ignoring if not voting against Arizona’s energy interests, saw fit to intervene on behalf of the Puerto Rican government and solar lobbyists on May 17th.

In a letter to the Financial Oversight and Management Board (FOMB) for Puerto Rico, Grijalva along with co-signers such as Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY-14) and Rashida Tlaib (D-MI-13), called upon the board to reverse a decision directing the Governor and Legislature of Puerto Rico to “repeal or amend the recently enacted Puerto Rico Law 10-2024,” which would require the continuation of a ‘net metering’ study for solar customers, subsidizing rooftop solar until at least 2031.

The lawmakers wrote, “Making rooftop solar and battery storage systems less affordable could hurt the lowest-income people most. Should net metering be eliminated or weakened, the result would be a growing divide between those stuck with exorbitant energy prices from imported fossil fuels and those who can afford their own dependable solar and battery system. Slowing the adoption of rooftop solar and batteries would mean missed opportunities to leverage the private market to protect those most vulnerable to another hurricane’s impacts.”

The ‘net metering,’ program from the Puerto Rico Energy Bureau (PREB) required the bankrupt Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority (PREPA), a government-owned monopoly, to keep an existing study scheduled to sunset in place which pays out solar customers for the energy returned to the grid.

In an April 10th blog post, the board explained, “Act 10 suspends this schedule, requiring PREB to redo its net metering and energy distribution study – but not until January 2030. Act 10 further specifies that PREB may not change the current net metering structure until the study is completed, and then provides that any changes can only take effect 12 months after PREB decides to make any such changes. That means, Act 10 mandates that the current net metering structure remain in place until at least 2031, and likely much longer.”

The FOMB is mandated to address the fiscal disaster that has afflicted the territorial government of Puerto Rico since 2014 and was badly exacerbated by Hurricane Maria in 2017. In a statement released in February the board laid out a comprehensive plan to help PREPA recover from bankruptcy. The board was created under the Puerto Rico Oversight, Management, and Economic Stability Act of 2016 or PROMESA and enacted the directive “to reduce more than $10 billion of total asserted claims against the Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority (PREPA).” Overall, FOMB’s plan is set to reduce principal and interest payments to Puerto Rico’s creditors “from about $20 billion under their asserted claim, to about $5 billion.”

The board warned in a statement. “Puerto Rico’s energy system cannot fully improve with PREPA in bankruptcy. The Plan provides a path to end PREPA’s bankruptcy.”

Prior to his announcement of an undisclosed cancer diagnosis in early April, Grijalva, 76, had not voted on an energy bill since February 15 when he voted against HR 7176: the Unlocking our Domestic LNG Potential Act of 2024.

His unfortunate diagnosis notwithstanding, throughout his long history in the House dating back to 2003, Grijalva has consistently voted against key legislation aimed at improving the energy industry of Arizona and the lives of its residents. Even prior to floor voting, Grijalva holds considerable sway over energy policy owing to his seat as Ranking Member of the powerful House Committee on Natural Resources as well as his seat on the Energy and Mineral Resource sub-committee.

Over the years according to Vote Smart, Grijalva failed to vote on such measures as: HR 6544-The Atomic Energy Advancement Act and HR 6009-The Restoring American Energy Dominance Act.

The congressman even voted against bills such as:

Arizona’s seventh congressional district, represented by Grijalva covers approximately 90% of Arizona’s border with Mexico and encompasses the tribal land of the Tohono O’odham tribe and the service area of the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Facility, areas heavily impacted by these measures. In 2024, major Arizona utility APS is slated to increase electricity rates by 8%, an average of about $10.50 per month according to 12News. According to AAA, the current average price for gasoline in Arizona is about $3.87 compared to an average of $2.44 in 2020 per KTAR.

Matthew Holloway is a senior reporter for AZ Free News. Follow him on X for his latest stories, or email tips to Matthew@azfreenews.com.