Thanksgiving dinner will cost less than it did last year, but it will still be harder on your wallet than before President Joe Biden took office.
Per the Farm Bureau’s annual analysis of Thanksgiving dinner staple costs, the price reduction of nearly five percent from last year is “moderate” and not near enough to undo the “dramatic increase” that occurred two years ago.
A Thanksgiving meal still costs 20 percent more than it did in 2019: about $58 for a feast for 10 this year. Last year, the same meal size cost about $61, and in 2022, it cost about $64.
This annual Thanksgiving dinner survey relies on shoppers across 50 states and Puerto Rico to survey their local grocery store’s prices for classic feast items: turkey, stuffing, sweet potatoes, dinner rolls, peas, cranberries, celery, carrots, pumpkin pie ingredients, whipping cream, and milk.
The “moderate” price reduction only occurred with some of these classic holiday foods — others rose in price. Costs were lower for turkey, sweet potatoes, peas, carrots and celery, pumpkin pie mix, pie crusts, and milk, but costs were higher for dinner rolls, cranberries, whipping cream, and stuffing.
The reason for prices of certain items going up while others have gone down has to do with the type of item. Increases occurred mainly in processed products due to nonfood inflation and labor shortages driving up costs for partners across the food supply chain. An exception occurred for fresh cranberries, but the 12 percent price increase is considered a stabilization of pricing after an 18 percent decline from 2022 to 2023. The Farm Bureau noted that, even with the price increase and adjusting for inflation, fresh cranberries have their lowest cost since 1987.
The average costs are as follows: $25.67 for a 16-pound turkey, $2.35 for 12 ounces of fresh cranberries, $2.93 for three pounds of sweet potatoes, 84 cents for half-pound of carrots and celery, $1.73 for 16 ounces of green peas, $3.40 for two nine-inch pie shells, $4.08 for 14 ounces of cube stuffing, $4.16 for one pack of dinner rolls, $4.15 for 30 ounces of pumpkin pie mix, $3.21 for one gallon of whole milk, and $1.81 for one-half pint of whipping cream.
The Farm Bureau also reported significant cost disparities based on region. Those in the Western states face at least 14 percent higher costs for a Thanksgiving dinner for 10, or $67. Comparatively, those in the Southern states have the lowest cost: $56 for a party of 10. The Northeastern states will have an average cost of $57, and the Midwestern states will have an average cost of nearly $59.
Those price disparities grow much more when adding less-traditional Thanksgiving favorites: ham, Russet potatoes, and green beans. Southerners, Northeasterners, and Midwesterners would only pay anywhere from $81 to $83 to add those favorites to their dinners. However, Westerners would have to pay over $93 for the same spread.
Farmers take the biggest brunt of inflation, experiencing lower and more volatile prices. The USDA projects that national net farm income will fall by $6.5 billion this year.
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A Thanksgiving dinner for 10 may cost about 20 percent more than it did last year — a difference of nearly $11. It is the most expensive that a Thanksgiving meal has been in at least 36 years.
The annual American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) survey released on Wednesday revealed that classic Thanksgiving foods for a gathering of 10 would amount to $64.05. Last year, that same meal cost $53.31.
This year’s classic Thanksgiving feast for 10 will run you $64.05—less than $7 dollars per person—according to Farm Bureau's 37th annual #ThanksgivingSurvey. 👇 pic.twitter.com/CcdfDFZruo
The survey reviewed costs for a 16-pound turkey, 12 ounces of cranberries, three pounds of sweet potatoes, one-half pound each of carrots and celery, 16 ounces of green peas, two pie shells, 14 ounces of cube stuffing, 30 ounces of pumpkin pie mix, one gallon of milk, and one-half pint of whipping cream.
Last year, a 16-pound turkey cost nearly $24 on average ($1.49 per pound). This year, that same turkey cost nearly $29 on average ($1.81 per pound). That $5 increase is the most significant of all the classic Thanksgiving foods, though the remainder of the other 10 groceries averaged an increase of 60 cents.
Nothing declined in price; the grocery item with the least cost increase was the one-pound vegetable tray, at six cents.
Thanksgiving meal prices declined from 2015 to 2020 before increasing last year. This past year’s increase is the steepest yet in the 36 years since the AFBF began its survey.
The USDA issued a memo on Wednesday as well with different estimates. They claimed that their administration undertook actions to slow inflation at grocery stores, some of which have been purportedly palpable.
Good news for our economy today: prices paid by businesses moderated last month, coming after news that prices paid by consumers have also moderated.
And today's report shows that food inflation slowed – a welcome sign for families’ grocery bills as we head into the holidays.
The USDA used a turkey hen instead of a tom for its comparison, and estimated that a large turkey hen would only cost two cents more per pound than last year.
Their estimates for costs of other staples were lower as well. 12 ounces of cranberries were $2.24, three pounds of sweet potatoes were $2.58, and a gallon of milk was $3.73. The USDA excluded pie ingredients, stuffing, and whipping cream from its estimates.
The USDA blamed the avian influenza outbreak, Russia’s war on Ukraine, and the drought for the increasing costs of food. Despite the loss of over 8 million turkeys, the administration projected that there wouldn’t be a turkey shortage come Thanksgiving.
Corinne Murdock is a reporter for AZ Free News. Follow her latest on Twitter, or email tips to corinne@azfreenews.com.
Anyone who bought Halloween candy likely noticed the higher prices and fewer sales. Yet it appears to be just a prelude of things to come heading into Thanksgiving.
President Biden and House Democrats’ reckless spending is haunting American families this Halloween.
🍬Halloween candy prices are up 13%. 🎃Pumpkin prices are up 7%.@HouseGOP is committed to ending this cost-of-living crisis by reining in Democrats’ failed agenda.
Avian flu outbreaks across the country have led to the slaughter of more than 7 million turkeys, resulting in a shortage that has prompted souring supply and demand pricing (up 70 percent per pound from last year) that has been further worsened by inflation.
Turkeys are not the only Thanksgiving staple subject to significantly higher prices this year.
Baking pumpkins are also much more expensive, up 24 percent from last year’s holiday season. And anyone who buys butter or margarine—a must-have for those potatoes and rolls—knows the shortage of sunflower oil (due to the war in Ukraine) and canola oil (due to droughts in Canada) have seen prices creep up all summer along with milk costs.
Add all of that to the recent inflation report which shows most other foods have gone up 15 to 20 percent, and it equals a traditional American Thanksgiving dinner that is going to be costly this year.
Meanwhile, grocery stores and restaurants which typically sell take-home Thanksgiving dinner packages are advising customers to order early, as quantities are limited.
And those trying to escape the higher grocery prices—and cooking time—by dining out won’t see much relief, according to the National Restaurant Association. Restaurants are seeing the same price squeezes, which when added to higher labor costs will translate to higher prices on the menu.
The higher prices for Thanksgiving staples is also expected to squeeze nonprofits across Arizona who count on food donations to provide thousands of free meals to the homeless and low-income families.
