At a time when Arizonans are still struggling to recover from years of Biden-era inflation, Republican lawmakers acted swiftly to deliver on their Affordable Arizona agenda. On just the fourth day of the legislative session, they passed SB1106, a tax conformity package that delivered the full benefits of the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) to Arizona taxpayers, families, and businesses. The legislation provided $1.1 billion in tax relief and, just as importantly, immediate certainty for millions of Arizonans heading into tax season.
The very next day, Governor Katie Hobbs vetoed it.
That veto leaves taxpayers facing a potential $1.1 billion tax hike and widespread chaos as filing season begins. This isn’t simply the typical tax policy fight between Democrat and Republican ideologies. But a full display of Katie Hobbs’ failure to lead.
From the outset, she has mishandled this critical issue of federal tax conformity with conflicting messages, unauthorized executive actions, and zero coordination with the Legislature or even apparently her own agencies. The result has been a self-inflicted mess, and Arizona taxpayers will be the ones to suffer the price.
U.S. Rep. Andy Biggs (R-AZ-05) recently told Newsmax that Americans should begin feeling the economic impact of President Donald Trump’s signature tax and budget law within the next 90 days as key provisions are implemented.
Biggs made the remarks during an interview on Monday, December 22, referencing what supporters officially call the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (H.R.1), a broad tax and spending statute signed into law earlier this year.
Biggs said Americans will start seeing the tax changes “pretty quickly,” adding that the core provisions would “start spinning up in the next 90 days.”
He told the outlet that the rollout of the new tax policy would stimulate economic activity. “So you’re going to see some new things with regard to Social Security, overtime, tax on tips, and that’s going to actually cause some economic stimulus,” Biggs said.
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act was enacted on July 4, 2025, following passage in both the U.S. House and Senate. It includes a wide range of tax code changes, spending provisions, and policy adjustments central to the Trump administration’s domestic agenda.
The law permanently extends several individual and business income tax cuts originally enacted in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 and includes a number of deductions and tax incentives. It also makes significant changes to Medicaid eligibility requirements and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), raises the debt ceiling, and allocates funding across defense, border enforcement, and other federal priorities.
Biggs was among Arizona’s congressional Republicans who supported the bill during its floor votes. All six Republican members of Arizona’s U.S. House delegation voted in favor of the legislation when it returned to the chamber for final approval in July.
The bill passed the House on a 218-214 vote after earlier Senate approval. It then went to President Trump, who signed it into law later the same day.
Biggs’s comments come as Republican lawmakers and supporters highlight the expected timelines for implementing tax cuts and credits included in the legislation. Trump allies have repeatedly emphasized that many provisions are designed to reduce tax burdens for individuals and businesses once they take effect in 2026.
The law’s changes to federal tax rates and deductions, including those affecting child tax credits and specific income brackets, could impact Arizona households in 2026 as those provisions begin phasing in. It also includes changes to federal funding streams that intersect with state budgets, such as SNAP and Medicaid, both of which have significant participation among Arizona residents.
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) marks the most transformative overhaul of federal tax policy since the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA).
The OBBBA locks in the TCJA’s individual tax provisions, avoiding a tax increase for approximately 62% of tax filers in 2026, according to the Tax Foundation.
The group’s recent analysis also shows that the law will reduce federal taxes for individual taxpayers in every state, with an average national tax cut of $3,752 per taxpayer in 2026.
The economic impact is equally as big, with 938,000 new full-time equivalent jobs created over the long term, including 132,000 in California, 81,000 in Texas, and down to 1,800 in Vermont.
In Arizona, the Tax Foundation says that the OBBBA will deliver an average tax cut of $3,521 per taxpayer in 2026, providing relief to families and individuals across the state.
Maricopa County will see an average tax cut of $4,049 per taxpayer in 2026, driven by key provisions like:
Income Tax Rate Cuts and Bracket Changes: $1,613 in savings per taxpayer.
Standard Deduction Expansion: $821 in savings
Child Tax Credit Expansion: $630 in savings
Tip and Overtime Deductions: $50 and $229 in savings
Business Provisions: $1,321 in savings
Other counties in the state will see major tax cuts in 2026, including Coconino County, with $3,096, Yavapai County, with $3,066, Greenlee County, with $3,011, Pima County, with $2,781, and Pinal County, with $2,553.
The Tax Foundation also projects that Arizona will gain approximately 18,014 full-time equivalent jobs in the long run, boosting local economies and supporting communities across the state.
OBBBA’s long-term outlook remains strong, with average tax cuts projected to dip to $2,505 in 2030 due to the expiration of temporary provisions like the tip and overtime deductions, before rising to $3,301 by 2035 as inflation enhances the value of permanent cuts.
Arizona’s business-friendly provisions, such as permanent 100% bonus depreciation and research and development (R&D) expense, will continue to drive investment and job creation.
Ethan Faverino is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
Donald Trump’s renewed pledge to “Make America Great Again” requires nothing less than reigniting economic growth and prosperity. Wealth creation is essential. Yet as Congress prepares to extend and expand upon Trump’s landmark Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, he can take matters into his own hands by issuing an executive order to index capital gains for inflation.
Taxing inflationary “phantom” capital gains is an unfair and ill-advised policy that punishes risk and success.
Consider this: You invest $1,000, and after four years of Joe Biden in the White House, you sell that investment for $1,100. But since inflation raged during Biden’s tenure, the $1,100 you receive will be worth less in real terms than the $1,000 you invested. And yet, under current law, you will pay a tax on your $100 capital “gain.”
Talk about perverse!
“As has been well documented,” writes Alan Auerbach, University of California economist, “realized capital gains may be subject to tax rates that easily exceed 100% of real gains in the presence of inflation.”
But it’s the law. And not only would eliminating it be the fair thing to do for investors, it would ignite a surge of American prosperity.
Eight years ago, the late Treasury economist Gary Robbins estimated that indexing capital gains for inflation would, by 2025, create an additional 400,000 jobs, grow the U.S. capital stock by $1.1 trillion and boost GDP by roughly $500 billion. Because capital gains were never indexed, average household income today is $3,600 lower than it could have been otherwise.
However, it’s never too late to start doing the right thing.
Congress has repeatedly toyed with indexing capital gains. In fact, indexing capital gains used to be a bipartisan issue. In the early 1990s, congressional Democrats touted indexing as an effective way to boost economic growth and benefit workers.
“If we really want to increase growth,” said a youthful Chuck Schumer, the then-future Senate minority leader, “there are proposals that we can do. I would be for indexing all capital gains, savings and borrowings.”
Having mastered the ways of the D.C. swamp, Schumer now opposes indexing capital gains. Listen to Congressman Schumer, not Senator Swamp.
Indeed, as Trump emphasized in 2019, “Indexing is something that a lot of people have liked for a long time. It’s something that would be very easy to do. It’s something that I am certainly thinking about.”
Looking forward, the Congressional Budget Office estimated last month that federal capital gains tax receipts will total $2.8 trillion over the decade ahead. If only one-fourth of those tax receipts—a conservative estimate—are due to taxing phantom gains, American taxpayers will pay $700 billion in taxes on income that doesn’t exist.
Opponents of capital gains indexation say the subsequent revenue loss would be too great. But inasmuch as inflationary gains should not have been taxed in the first place, a revenue loss is a good thing. It represents the correction of a tax injustice.
The second-order effects that Robbins documents should remove any reservations based on revenue loss. Without the federal tax on inflationary gains, asset prices will adjust until they reach a new, higher equilibrium. Investors will see their portfolios appreciate bigly.
It’s a safe bet that millions of American investors and pensioners would choose a Dow Jones average of 50,000 with indexation over a Dow Jones average of 44,500 without indexation.
As taxpayers realize real capital gains, the federal government will collect billions of dollars in new tax revenue. Federal tax revenue may ultimately be higher with indexation, not lower.
There is the question of whether Trump has the legal authority to issue an executive order instructing the Treasury secretary to issue new regulations indexing the capital gains cost basis for inflation. It comes down to whether the governing Internal Revenue Code section covering the definition of the word “cost” is sufficiently ambiguous to allow regulatory reinterpretation. Congress never specifically mandated that “cost” was to be determined in nominal terms, nor did it prohibit the use of real valuation.
According to a watershed 2012 paper by Charles Cooper and Vincent Colatriano in the Harvard Journal of Law & Public Policy, “jurisprudential developments over the last two decades have confirmed . . . that Treasury has regulatory authority to index capital gains for inflation.” With that justification, Trump has little reason to hold back.
James Carter is a contributor to The Daily Caller News Foundation and a principal with Navigators Global. He previously headed President Donald Trump’s tax team during the 2016-17 transition and served as a deputy assistant secretary of the Treasury for then-President George W. Bush.
