The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) marks the most transformative overhaul of federal tax policy since the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA).
The OBBBA locks in the TCJA’s individual tax provisions, avoiding a tax increase for approximately 62% of tax filers in 2026, according to the Tax Foundation.
The group’s recent analysis also shows that the law will reduce federal taxes for individual taxpayers in every state, with an average national tax cut of $3,752 per taxpayer in 2026.
The economic impact is equally as big, with 938,000 new full-time equivalent jobs created over the long term, including 132,000 in California, 81,000 in Texas, and down to 1,800 in Vermont.
In Arizona, the Tax Foundation says that the OBBBA will deliver an average tax cut of $3,521 per taxpayer in 2026, providing relief to families and individuals across the state.
Maricopa County will see an average tax cut of $4,049 per taxpayer in 2026, driven by key provisions like:
Income Tax Rate Cuts and Bracket Changes: $1,613 in savings per taxpayer.
Standard Deduction Expansion: $821 in savings
Child Tax Credit Expansion: $630 in savings
Tip and Overtime Deductions: $50 and $229 in savings
Business Provisions: $1,321 in savings
Other counties in the state will see major tax cuts in 2026, including Coconino County, with $3,096, Yavapai County, with $3,066, Greenlee County, with $3,011, Pima County, with $2,781, and Pinal County, with $2,553.
The Tax Foundation also projects that Arizona will gain approximately 18,014 full-time equivalent jobs in the long run, boosting local economies and supporting communities across the state.
OBBBA’s long-term outlook remains strong, with average tax cuts projected to dip to $2,505 in 2030 due to the expiration of temporary provisions like the tip and overtime deductions, before rising to $3,301 by 2035 as inflation enhances the value of permanent cuts.
Arizona’s business-friendly provisions, such as permanent 100% bonus depreciation and research and development (R&D) expense, will continue to drive investment and job creation.
Ethan Faverino is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
This year, the tax cuts from the Trump Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 were set to expire. Failing to extend the cuts would have resulted in a 22% tax hike for the average taxpayer. For Arizonans, it would have meant an average tax increase of $2,824. And there would have been an even larger tax increase for Arizona small businesses. Thankfully, earlier this summer Congress finally passed Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB), not only extending the personal income tax cuts from 2017 but making them permanent.
The OBBB also included several new tax provisions as well, such as no tax on tips and overtime, an increase in the standard deduction, full expensing and special depreciation for business, just to name a few. This assortment of changes to federal tax law now leaves states like Arizona with a big decision to make: provide partial conformity tax relief, full tax relief, or do nothing and provide no conformity tax relief at all.
This should be an easy choice, as choosing the non-conformity option would leave Arizona taxpayers with one big ugly tax bill to pay.
America’s carmakers face an uncertain future in the wake of President Donald Trump’s signing of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) into law on July 4.
The new law ends the $7,500 credit for new electric vehicles ($4,000 for used units) which was enacted as part of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act as of September 30, seven years earlier than originally planned.
The promise of that big credit lasting for a full decade did not just improve finances for Tesla and other pure-play EV companies: It also served as a major motivator for integrated carmakers like Ford, GM, and Stellantis to invest billions of dollars in capital into new, EV-specific plants, equipment, and supply chains, and expand their EV model offerings. But now, with the big subsidy about to expire, the question becomes whether the U.S. EV business can survive in an unsubsidized market? Carmakers across the EV spectrum are about to find out, and the outlook for most will not be rosy.
These carmakers will be entering into a brave new world in which the market for their cars had already turned somewhat sour even with the subsidies in place. Sales of EVs stalled during the fourth quarter of 2024 and then collapsed by more than 18% from December to January. Tesla, already negatively impacted by founder and CEO Elon Musk’s increased political activities in addition to the stagnant market, decided to slash prices in an attempt to maintain sales momentum, forcing its competitors to follow suit.
But the record number of EV-specific incentives now being offered by U.S. dealers has done little to halt the drop in sales, as the Wall Street Journal reports that the most recent data shows EV sales falling in each of the three months from April through June. Ford said its own sales had fallen by more than 30% across those three months, with Hyundai and Kia also reporting big drops. GM was the big winner in the second quarter, overtaking Ford and moving into 2nd place behind Tesla in total sales. But its ability to continue such growth absent the big subsidy edge over traditional ICE cars now falls into doubt.
The removal of the per-unit subsidies also calls into question whether the buildout of new public charging infrastructure, which has accelerated dramatically in the past three years, will continue as the market moves into a time of uncertainty. Recognizing that consumer concern, Ford, Hyundai, BMW and others included free home charging kits as part of their current suites of incentives. But of course, that only works if the buyer owns a home with a garage and is willing to pay the higher cost of insurance that now often comes with parking an EV inside.
Decisions, decisions.
As the year dawned, few really expected the narrow Republican congressional majorities would show the political will and unity to move so aggressively to cancel the big IRA EV subsidies. But, as awareness rose in Congress about the true magnitude of the budgetary cost of those provisions over the next 10 years, the benefit of getting rid of them ultimately subsumed concerns about the possible political cost of doing so.
So now, here we are, with an EV industry that seems largely unprepared to survive in a market with a levelized playing field. Even Tesla, which remains far and away the leader in total EV sales despite its recent struggles, seems caught more than a little off-guard despite Musk’s having been heavily involved in the early months of the second Trump presidency.
Musk’s response to his disapproval of the OBBBA was to announce the creation of a third political party he dubbed the American Party. It seems doubtful this new vanity project was the response to a looming challenge that members of Tesla’s board of directors would have preferred. But it does seem appropriately emblematic of an industry that is undeniably limping into uncharted territory with no clear plan for how to escape from existential danger.
David Blackmon is a contributor to The Daily Caller News Foundation, an energy writer, and consultant based in Texas. He spent 40 years in the oil and gas business, where he specialized in public policy and communications.
Earlier this week, Republican Congressman Abe Hamadeh’s (R-AZ08) social media team offered words of gratitude and even praise for Laurie Roberts, an opinion columnist for the Arizona Republic. The exhange came in regard to the framing of her recent op-ed entitled “Rep. Abe Hamadeh says no Medicaid cuts? He’s not fooling anyone.” According to Roberts, she incorrectly wrote in a post to X that the One Big Beautiful Bill Act contains cuts to Medicare, rather than reforming Medicaid.
Addressing the erroneous post, Roberts wrote a new post to X and commented, “Deleted my earlier tweet as I mistakenly said the cuts were to Medicare. Don’t want to start a panic, so I deleted it. The cuts are to Medicaid, as the column correctly points out.”
Deleted my earlier tweet as I mistakenly said the cuts were to Medicare. Don't want to start a panic, so I deleted it. The cuts are to Medicaid, as the column correctly points out.
Abe Hamadeh War Room, the Rapid Response account for the Congressman’s office, highlighted Roberts’ correction writing, “Thank you for showing integrity. In this case and correcting your mistake, Laurie. Unfortunately, the Democrats have created panic for months now by conflating these two very important issues. The last thing we would want is to scare people.”
Thank you for showing integrity. In this case and correcting your mistake, Laurie.
Unfortunately, the Democrats have created panic for months now by conflating these two very important issues.
As explained by the White House, “Medicare has not been touched in this bill— absolutely nothing in the bill reduces spending on Medicare benefits. This legislation does not make a single cut to welfare programs—it safeguards and protects these programs for all eligible Americans.”
The White House further noted that H.R. 1, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBA), does not in fact make cuts to Medicaid either.
“As the President has said numerous times, there will be no cuts to Medicaid. The One Big Beautiful Bill protects and strengthens Medicaid for those who rely on it—pregnant women, children, seniors, people with disabilities, and low-income families—while eliminating waste, fraud, and abuse,” the White House wrote. “The One Big Beautiful Bill removes illegal aliens, enforces work requirements, and protects Medicaid for the truly vulnerable.”
According to the latest congressional summary of the bill, the Medicaid reform in the OBBA falls into four main categories:
Reducing Fraud and Improving Enrollment Processes
Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) are to create a centralized system by 2027 for states to detect multi-state Medicaid/CHIP enrollment; states must verify addresses and report Social Security numbers monthly by FY2030; funding provided for system setup and maintenance.
States must check Social Security Administration’s Death Master File quarterly starting 2028 to identify deceased Medicaid enrollees.
States to verify provider termination from Medicare, other state Medicaid, or CHIP during enrollment/reenrollment starting 2028, with monthly checks thereafter.
States to check provider death status via Death Master File during enrollment/reenrollment starting 2028, with quarterly checks thereafter.
States to redetermine Medicaid expansion population eligibility every six months starting December 31, 2026.
10% reduction in enhanced federal matching rate starting FY2028 for states providing comprehensive health benefits to non-lawfully residing individuals (except children/pregnant women).
Preventing Wasteful Spending
CMS to survey pharmacies through FY2033 for Medicaid drug pricing; non-participating pharmacies face penalties; OIG to study survey results with FY2026 funding.
Mandates pass-through pricing and bans spread-pricing for Medicaid pharmacy benefit manager contracts.
Prohibits Medicaid/CHIP federal payments for gender transition procedures, with exceptions for minors with parental consent for specific medical conditions.
Bars federal Medicaid payments for 10 years to nonprofit essential community providers primarily offering family planning/abortions (beyond rape/incest/life-threatening cases) if they received over $1M in Medicaid payments in FY2024.
Stopping Abusive Financing Practices
Non-expansion states as of March 11, 2021, must expand Medicaid by January 1, 2026, to receive enhanced federal matching rate.
Prohibits federal matching for revenue from new or increased Medicaid provider taxes.
Limits state-directed payments under Medicaid managed care to Medicare rates (100% for expansion states, 110% for others) through FY2033.
Increasing Personal Accountability (Work Requirements)
Medicaid expansion population must meet 80-hour monthly work/community service/education requirements starting December 31, 2026; exemptions for medical conditions or dependent children; FY2026 funding for implementation.
Cost-sharing required for Medicaid expansion population with income above poverty line starting FY2029; max $35 per service, 5% of family income; excludes certain services; providers may require payment upfront.
Under the OBB, Medicaid isn’t cut but is in fact mandated to expand for “non-expansion states,” to receive enhanced federally matched funding. The only individuals and families purportedly “cut” from Medicaid would be those who fail to meet the program’s work/community service/education requirements and are not exempted by medical conditions or dependent children or whose income exceeds the program’s limitations and “non-lawfully residing individuals.”
Months after its reintroduction to Congress, H.R. 1362 the Downwinders Parity Act, sponsored by Congressman Paul Gosar (R-AZ09) and cosponsored by Rep. Abe Hamadeh (R-AZ08), passed by inclusion within the ‘One Big, Beautiful Bill.’ The act, which reauthorizes the Radiation Exposure Compensation Act (RECA), passed through the Budget Reconciliation process and was signed into law by President Donald Trump on July 4th.
“Atomic weapons testing conducted during the Cold War at the Nevada Test Site came with a heavy cost to Americans living in Arizona, Nevada and within tribal communities. Every person, known as ‘downwinders,’ who developed cancer or other related illnesses after being exposed to radiation from atomic weapons testing deserves to be compensated by the federal government,” explained Gosar.
“Downwinders,” their survivors, and uranium industry workers affected by the testing are now eligible for up to $100,000 in federal compensation.
The RECA bill originally authorized compensation for “downwinders” for 20 years in 1990 and was subsequently extended for 22 years and expanded in scope to include Apache, Coconino, Gila, Navajo, and Yavapai Counties, in Arizona, but only included parts of Mohave County and only included townships 13 through 16 at ranges 63 through 71 of Clark County, Nevada. As Gosar notes, despite the revisions and even another two year extension in 2022, the entirety of Mohave County or Clark County were not included.
🚨 GOSAR MINUTE 🚨
I recently introduced the Downwinders Parity Act of 2023. Here's what that does: pic.twitter.com/VEhvQqTuYJ
“Not only were downwinders residing in Mohave and Clark counties closer to the Nevada Test Site than residents in other eligible counties, but they also have the second-highest overall incidence rate of cancer in their respective states,” Gosar said.
He added, “Since first being elected to Congress, I have worked tirelessly to fix the error that excluded Downwinders from Mohave and Clark Counties from filing claims with the federal government. Congress has a moral responsibility to reauthorize RECA and update it by including both Mohave and Clark counties as affected areas.”
Cullin D. Pattillo, a surviving son of Eddie Pattillo of Kingman, told ABC15 that his father suffered for thirty years against three different forms of cancer after being exposed to radiation in the 1950s from nuclear testing 120 miles north of his Mohave County home.
“It killed my father and killed thousands of other people around the state of Arizona,” Pattillo said.
He told the outlet that his father never benefited from RECA compensation and screenings.
“I know of at least 100 claims that’ll be submitted here in Kingman, and there’s probably going to be a lot more,” he added.
Pattillo who has advocated for the expansion of RECA told the outlet, “It was always something that he fought for. We got close several times while he was still alive, and it was something I wanted to at least push through to the bitter end.”
In a statement marking the passage of H.R. 1, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, Rep. Gosar said, “Following the four disastrous years of the failed and corrupt Biden administration that created historic inflation, destroyed our economy and welcomed nearly 20 million illegal aliens into our country, I am very pleased to have voted in favor of legislation advancing President Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill.”
