by Daniel Stefanski | Oct 7, 2024 | Economy, News
By Daniel Stefanski |
Arizona voters are increasingly worried about the rising cost of housing as the November General Election approaches.
Last month, Noble Predictive Insights (NPI) released the findings of a poll, showing that “affordable housing has officially cemented its status as a top-tier issue for Arizona voters.”
In the top issues facing Arizona for this survey, “Affordable Housing” registered third in importance. “Inflation” and “Immigration” were the top two issues on the minds of Arizonans.
Affordable Housing was ranked as the third-highest issue for Republicans, Democrats, and Independents alike. Inflation was also a top three issue for all three voter demographics.
“Immigration, abortion, inflation – when these issues come up, the parties know what they’re talking about. And voters know who they trust. Housing is a different animal. Housing costs are just too high, and it’s becoming a bipartisan concern,” stated David Byler, NPI Chief of Research. “This is a rare opportunity for both parties – an important issue where neither side has a pre-existing advantage or even a defined message. The party that figures out how to win on housing will benefit hugely.”
The survey conducted by NPI occurred in mid-August with just over 1,000 registered voters.
According to Zillow, the average home value in the State of Arizona is $431,492 as of August 31, which is up 2.4% over one year. Meanwhile, the average United States home value, per Zillow, is $361,282, which is up 2.9% over the past year.
Arizona Senate President Warren Petersen addressed the poll’s findings with AZ Free News, saying, “The American dream of homeownership has become unattainable for the working-class under the Biden-Harris Administration. We attempted to make homes more affordable last year for our citizens with the Arizona Starter Homes Act, but unfortunately, the Governor vetoed the bill after caving to pressure from special interests and the Biden-Harris Administration’s Department of Defense. To add insult to injury, the Governor halted home construction in two of the most booming areas of the Valley, worsening Arizona’s supply shortage. Republicans at the Legislature will continue to draft commonsense solutions to get government out of the way, and to speed up home construction, so prices can come down. We’re hopeful the Governor will do the right thing by signing those bills into law.”
In a piece for The Heritage Foundation this summer, EJ Antoni, a Research Fellow, wrote about the reasons for skyrocketing home values and costs in Arizona. He said, “Over the last four years, the federal government spent trillions of dollars it didn’t have and far more than it was capable of even borrowing. To cover the shortfall, the Federal Reserve created money for the Treasury to borrow and spend. While that solved the federal finance problem, it also unleashed the worst inflation in four decades and spawned a cost-of-living crisis. While inflation causes prices everywhere to rise, the housing market in particular has seen stratospheric increases in sales prices. Part of the Fed’s plan of creating trillions of dollars for the Treasury was keeping interest rates artificially low, and that made borrowing extremely inexpensive, including borrowing for a home.”
Antoni added, “Potential home buyers had access to so much cheap credit that they collectively bid up the prices of homes to never-before-seen levels. After the Fed’s low interests and easy credit created inflation, however, the central bank swung the monetary levers in the other direction and initiated fast interest rate hikes. That suddenly made borrowing prohibitively expensive for countless Americans.”
As Antoni concluded his piece, he stated that “in Arizona, it has reached the point where a single working adult needs to earn $97,000 to live comfortably. That’s over 50 percent higher than the median income for a single full-time worker. If you want to comfortably support a family of four in Arizona, you’ll need to earn $231,000. Even with two working adults, they’d need to each earn almost twice the median income of a full-time worker to hit that annual income.”
Daniel Stefanski is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
by Daniel Stefanski | Sep 23, 2024 | News
By Daniel Stefanski |
Maricopa County voters appear to be locked in with their support of a sales tax renewal for the November General Election.
Earlier this month, Noble Predictive Insights (NPI) released a poll to show that Maricopa County voters were overwhelmingly in support of Proposition 479.
Proposition 479 is a result of SB 1102, which was passed in 2023, requiring “that the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors call a countywide election for the continuation of the county transportation tax at least two years before the expiration of the tax, and shall conduct that election on a consolidated election date no less than one year before the expiration of the tax.”
The official title of the measure is the “Regional Strategic Transportation Infrastructure Investment Plan.”
If passed by Maricopa County voters, the revenues would be allocated in the following manner: “(a) 40.5 percent to freeways and other routes in the state highway system; (b) 37 percent to public transportation; and (c) 22.5 percent to arterial streets, intersection improvements and regional transportation infrastructure.”
According to the September survey released from NPI, Proposition 479 had 64 percent support from voters in August, compared to 18 percent opposition. Nineteen percent of voters were undecided about the question at hand.
The numbers for Proposition 479 are largely unchanged from two previous polls, dating back to July 2023. Opposition to the measure has only increased by a single percentage point since July 2023, while support has increased by eight percent during that same time frame.
“Maricopa County voters have had their minds made up for a year on this proposition – campaigns for it have clearly worked, and Prop 479 is on the fast track to victory in November,” said Mike Noble, NPI Founder & CEO.
After the Arizona Legislature passed a compromise for this proposal in July 2023, Republican Senate President Warren Petersen claimed victory, calling SB 1102 “the most conservative transportation plan in our state’s history.” He added, “The guardrails, taxpayer protections and funding allocations in the text of this bill reflect the priorities of voters, to reinvest their tax dollars in the transportation modes they use most.”
Democrat Governor Katie Hobbs, who signed the compromise, was diplomatic in her statement, saying, “Today, bipartisan leaders invested in the future of Arizona families, businesses, and communities. The passage of the Prop 400 ballot measure will secure the economic future of our state and create hundreds of thousands of good-paying jobs for Arizonans. I am glad we were able to put politics aside and do what is right for Arizona.”
Members of the Arizona Freedom Caucus were adamantly opposed to the bill as it was released and approved. After the Prop 400 plan passed through the Arizona Legislature, the Freedom Caucus tweeted, “Legislative conservatives near unanimously opposed this horrible bill. Conservative watchdog groups unanimously opposed it. The bill may have been better than the communists at @MAGregion’s horrific plan, but that’s a ludicrously low bar for success. This bill was antithetical to conservatism.”
The breakthrough on the Prop 400 compromise between Republicans and Democrats in Arizona’s divided government took place after Governor Hobbs vetoed a Republican proposal earlier that summer. At that time, Hobbs stated, “I just vetoed the partisan Prop 400 bill that fails to adequately support Arizona’s economic growth and does nothing to attract new business or create good-paying jobs.”
In May 2023, the governor had created unrest over ongoing negotiations, allegedly sending out a tweet that highlighted her fight with Republicans at the Legislature at the same time she was meeting with Senate President Warren Petersen.
Petersen stressed the importance of the agreed-upon bill, asserting that officials had “secured a good, responsible product for the citizens of Arizona to consider in 2024, giving voters the option to enhance critical infrastructure that our entire state relies upon.”
This NPI poll took place between August 12-16 with just over 1,000 registered Arizona voters, including 595 individuals in Maricopa County.
Daniel Stefanski is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
by Daniel Stefanski | Sep 20, 2024 | News
By Daniel Stefanski |
Arizonans are pessimistic about the future of their state.
Last month, Noble Predictive Insights (NPI) conducted a poll of over 1,000 registered voters in Arizona, showing “a picture of a state grappling with general pessimism and shifting priorities for voters.”
The survey from NPI indicated that 60% of respondents believed that Arizona is going in the wrong direction, compared to 40% who believe that the state is on the right track. The negative responses were up from the start of Governor Katie Hobbs’ administration in January 2023, when 55% believed the state was headed in the wrong direction, and 45% believed Arizona was headed in the right direction.
According to NPI, “In August, Republicans were overwhelmingly pessimistic, with 77% believing the state is on the wrong track. Within the party, the discontentment is slightly more pronounced among Trump-First Republicans (81%) compared to Party-First Republicans (77%). Democrats, on the other hand, are broadly optimistic – two-thirds say Arizona is on the right track, with Party-First Democrats (68%) and Harris-First Democrats (67%) in general agreement. Independents’ views on Arizona’s direction line up closest to the toplines with 64% unhappy with the trajectory of the state.”
“It’s not hard to see why pessimism increased in this period. In early 2022, a COVID-19 survey hit the state. And since then, Arizonans have told us that inflation has become more and more of a pain point,” said David Byler, NPI Chief of Research. “Partisanship plays a role too. Longtime Republican Arizonans are watching the state turn purple – and they blame newcomers from Oregon, Washington, California, and other blue states. Democrats – whether longtime residents or new arrivals – are greeting this political change with more warmth. So, partisanship plays a role – but so do real-life conditions.”
Additionally, the release from NPI highlighted that “the poll also found that the length of residency in Arizona correlates with outlook on the state’s trajectory. The longer a respondent has lived in Arizona, the less satisfied they are with the direction of the state. Recent transplants – those who have moved to Arizona within the last five years – were more likely to believe the state is headed in the right direction (56%).”
In an exclusive comment to AZ Free News, Arizona Senate President Warren Petersen said, “Republicans in Arizona have been passing good policies for more than a decade, prompting hundreds of people to move to our state every day. We used to be able to keep up with the demand for affordable housing. Unfortunately, since the Governor entered office, she has implemented policies restricting our housing supply, which have forced prices to rise. The pessimistic attitudes are a direct result of the partisan games being played by the Governor, and our citizens are paying the price.”
House Speaker Ben Toma added, “Arizonans are bearing the brunt of an economy weakened by the Biden-Harris administration’s inflationary policies. Hardworking families are desperate for relief, but the failure of Democratic leadership in Washington and locally continues to erode the successful conservative policies that once drove record economic growth, reduced costs, and fueled confidence in our future.”
Daniel Stefanski is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
by Daniel Stefanski | Sep 9, 2024 | News
By Daniel Stefanski |
Two ballot referrals from the Arizona Legislature may be on thin ice as voters prepare their decisions for November’s General Election.
A poll released this week from Noble Predictive Insights (NPI) showed that both Proposition 135 and Proposition 137 were underwater with respondents, though many voters remain undecided.
According to the Arizona Secretary of State, Prop 135 would “terminate governor’s emergency powers, except for powers relating to war, fire, or flood, 30 days after the governor’s proclamation, unless extended by the legislature; [and] requires the governor to call a special session upon presentment of a petition signed by at least one-third of the members of the legislature.”
The NPI survey shows that 29% of respondents support the measure, compared to 32% who are opposed. Thirty percent of respondents are undecided on how they would vote.
“Many conservatives haven’t forgotten COVID,” said NPI Chief of Research David Byler. “Memories of lockdowns – combined with a Democrat in the governor’s mansion – make sense of the partisan divide we see on this issue.”
The Arizona Legislature referred this proposal to the Secretary of State on June 13, 2023 (HCR 2039).
According to the Arizona Secretary of State, Prop 137 would “eliminate judicial terms and regular retention elections and nullif[y] the results of the 2024 judicial retention elections, for Arizona Supreme Court Justices, Court of Appeals Judges, and Superior Court Judges in counties with over 250,000 persons.”
For this proposition, the NPI poll shows that 31% of respondents would support the measure, compared to 38% who are opposed to it. Twenty-four percent of voters appear to be undecided.
“While about 1 in 10 voters say they wouldn’t vote on Prop 135 or 137, the large shares of voters who are still unsure how they will vote on each measure will determine whether or not these measures pass come November,” said Mike Noble, NPI Founder & CEO.
The Arizona Legislature referred this proposal to the Secretary of State on June 13, 2024 (SCR 1044).
Daniel Stefanski is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
by Daniel Stefanski | Sep 6, 2024 | News
By Daniel Stefanski |
A border security ballot measure might be headed for victory this coming November if numbers from a recent poll hold up.
This week, Noble Predictive Insights (NPI) released a poll, showing that Proposition 314 (the Secure the Border Act) was receiving 63% support for passage. Only 16% of respondents indicated that they were opposing the measure at the ballot box.
According to a press release issued by NPI, “Not all components of the expansive Prop 314 are equally popular. According to the poll, supporters of the measure most strongly back two of its planks: holding drug dealers responsible for the death of a person who consumes a drug containing fentanyl (77% support), and requiring employers to verify the immigration status of workers (75% support). Their feelings are more mixed (56% support) about reforms surrounding how migrants obtain public benefits. Among those who oppose Prop 314, 31% oppose the punishments for fentanyl dealers, 47% are against immigration status verification in the workplace, and 64% oppose the portion determining how migrants obtain public benefits.”
“Opponents will have trouble pushing the argument ‘people are only supporting this because of the fentanyl stuff, they don’t care about the immigration’ – that’s what voters like most about Prop 314,” said Mike Noble, NPI Founder & CEO. “Prop 314 is popular across party lines, and that is a difficult trend to disrupt with only a couple of months until Election Day.”
Proposition 314 was referred to the ballot by Republicans in the Arizona Legislature after Democrat Governor Katie Hobbs and left-wing legislators rebuffed most efforts from conservative lawmakers to pass legislation over the past two years to help secure the border and give law enforcement more tools to protect their communities. After the measure was transmitted to the Arizona Secretary of State, progressive interest groups opposed to the efforts challenged the legislation in court in an attempt to keep it from the ballot. However, multiple state courts rejected those lawsuits and gave the greenlight for voter consideration of Prop 314 in the November General Election.
Arizona Senate President Warren Petersen, who was instrumental in making sure Prop 314 made the ballot, reacted to the news of the NPI polling, telling AZ Free News, “The polling goes hand in hand from what I am hearing from my constituents. They are worried about border security. I think it shows how out of touch our democratic legislators are at the Capitol. Every single Democrat voted ‘no’ on this measure. I’m glad the voters will get to decide this.”
House Speaker Ben Toma, who was the sponsor of the legislative vehicle for the measure, added, “The polling is consistent with what we’ve been hearing from Arizonans all along—they are frustrated with the open border policies of the Biden-Harris administration and are demanding change. They want a secure border and safer communities. Proposition 314 offers meaningful, commonsense reforms to protect our communities, and I am confident it will pass in November.”
Daniel Stefanski is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
