by Ethan Faverino | Jan 19, 2026 | Economy, News
By Ethan Faverino |
U.S. retail sales experienced healthy growth in December 2025, aligning holiday season results closely with its forecast for record consumer spending, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF).
“December Retail Monitor data saw a sharp surge in growth as consumers continued prioritizing holiday spending on family and friends,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay. “Continued economic momentum helped land 2025 holiday sales near the top of NRF’s forecast, reaffirming that consumers remain on solid footing.”
The Retail Monitor, which draws from actual, anonymized credit and debit card transaction data, showed that holiday sales from November 1 through December 31, 2025, increased 4.1% year-over-year.
This performance fell within NRF’s pre-season forecast range of 3.7% – 4.2% growth over the same period in 2024, which projected total holiday spending surpassing $1 trillion for the first time. Official December figures from the U.S. Census Bureau have not yet been released.
Key December highlights include:
- Total retail sales (excluding car dealers and gas stations) rose 1.26% month over month on a seasonally adjusted basis and 3.54% year over year, unadjusted. This marked a significant increase from November’s 0.12% monthly gain and 4.53% annual gain.
- Core retail sales (excluding car dealers, gas stations, and restaurants) climbed 1.6% month over month and 3.58% year over year, compared to a slight 0.04% monthly decline and 4.66% annual increase in November.
A calendar shift contributed to December’s strong performance, as a late Thanksgiving pushed Cyber Monday to December 1, adding an extra high-volume shopping day to the month’s totals.
The full year’s impact was notable, with total 2025 retail sales up 4.93% over 2024 and core sales rising 5.08%.
December sales increased in six out of the nine tracked categories on a year-over-year basis, with strong performances in:
- Clothing and accessories stores: +6.11% year-over-year, +2.05% month-over-month
- Sporting goods, hobby, music, and book stores: +5.16% year-over-year, +3.52% month-over-month
- Digital products: +3.6% year-over-year, +0.98% month-over-month
- General merchandise stores: +3.42% year-over-year, +2.9% month-over-month
- Grocery and beverage stores: +2.85% year-over-year, +0.33% month-over-month
- Health and personal care stores: +2.5% year-over-year, +1.92% month-over-month
Categories showing year-over-year declines included electronics and appliance stores (-0.09%), furniture and home furnishings stores (-0.82%), and building and garden supply stores (-5.3%), though all posted positive monthly gains.
Ethan Faverino is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
by Matthew Holloway | Dec 20, 2025 | Economy, News
By Matthew Holloway |
A record number of consumers plan to shop on “Super Saturday” this year, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Prosper Insights & Analytics, signaling continued strength in final-stretch holiday spending despite months of inflation pressures.
The NRF’s annual survey projects 158.9 million Americans will shop on December 20 — the last Saturday before Christmas and historically one of the busiest retail days of the year. The organization says the figure surpasses both last year’s estimate and the previous all-time high in 2022, according to a Wednesday press release.
“As the final Saturday before Dec. 25, Super Saturday is a significant shopping event for both consumers and retailers,” said Katherine Cullen, NRF’s vice president of industry and consumer insights.
“This year’s event falls only five days before the Christmas holiday, and consumers will shop across retailers and channels in search of the final gifts on their lists and other holiday items they need to complete a memorable holiday season,” she added.
The NRF survey, conducted December 1–10 among more than 8,300 adult consumers, found that:
- Roughly 45 percent expect to shop both in-store and online,
- 29 percent plan to shop only in stores, and
- 26 percent plan to shop exclusively online.
Online remains the leading destination for last-minute purchases, with 46 percent of respondents planning to buy online, followed by 33 percent indicating department stores and 26 percent citing discount retailers.
The survey also found that U.S. consumers had completed about half of their holiday shopping by early December. Respondents who still had shopping remaining cited common reasons including unresolved gift decisions, competing financial priorities, and waiting on information from friends or family.
A growing share of respondents, 31 percent, said they planned to give “experience-based” gifts such as event tickets, classes, or travel, continuing a trend NRF analysts say has strengthened over the past decade.
Beyond national forecasts, Arizona retailers are leaning into this final shopping weekend with a shift toward experience-based promotions as well rather than pure discounting. According to Dallas McLaughlin Digital Marketing, some Phoenix and Scottsdale-area businesses have rolled out in-store events, exclusive giveaways, and AI-driven loyalty programs designed to keep shoppers engaged longer and convert last-minute browsers into buyers. Local marketing analysts say experiential retail is gaining traction across the Valley as stores compete not only on price but on atmosphere and interaction, a strategy they expect to play out across Super Saturday crowds.
Looking beyond Christmas Day, the NRF noted that nearly seven in ten shoppers expect to continue making purchases after December 25 to take advantage of post-holiday discounts and to redeem gift cards.
The holiday retail season, as defined by the NRF, spans November 1 through December 31. The organization projects total holiday retail sales will exceed $1 trillion for the first time, forecasting growth between 3.7 and 4.2 percent over 2024’s totals.
Super Saturday, sometimes referred to as “Panic Saturday” in the retail industry, regularly delivers some of the heaviest foot and online traffic of the season as consumers rush to finish gift buying before Christmas. Retailers traditionally extend store hours and concentrate promotional campaigns around the date.
Matthew Holloway is a senior reporter for AZ Free News. Follow him on X for his latest stories, or email tips to Matthew@azfreenews.com.
by Matthew Holloway | Jan 6, 2025 | News
By Matthew Holloway |
The National Retail Federation (NRF), in partnership with the Loss Prevention Research Council, reported that nationwide shoplifting has increased by an astronomical 93% when compared to 2019 figures. The incidence of shoplifting is up 26% over 2023 numbers. According to the NRF’s, “Impact of Retail Theft & Violence 2024,” retailers participating in the study logged 177 shoplifting incidents per day in 2023. On some days, that number would spike to over 1,000. In addition, 73% of the retail outlets surveyed warned that shoplifters are acting with significantly increased violence and aggression than in 2019.
David Johnston, NRF vice president of asset protection and retail operations, told FOX Business, “This isn’t what we were used to. This isn’t the shoplifting I was apprehending 30 years ago. These are people who are shoplifting because they know when they have an outlet to sell this merchandise to.”
Referring to the onset of organized retail shoplifting groups that resell stolen goods, he said, “Not every shoplifter is going out there and selling their stolen goods online or at a flea market. They’re selling them in larger mass quantities to these local, regional or transnational organizations who are helping to feed the system.”
In Arizona, the opposite seems to be true. Shoplifting is down according to Department of Public Safety statistics from 41,519 incidents in 2019 to 34,587 in 2023, a decrease of approximately 17% with incomplete data for 2024 showing just 29,832 incidents. Maricopa County Attorney Rachel Mitchell told Fox 10 that in 2023, her office received approximately 600 submittals for the charge of organized retail theft. Mitchell warned at the time that the number was increasing.
“Arizona, specifically Maricopa County, will not tolerate this type of offense that is driving retailers to close stores, to hurt the communities that the stores are located in, and driving people out of business,” Mitchell told the outlet.
The NRF report shows that retailers who are capable of tracking organized retail theft saw a 57% increase on average in these incidents from 2022 to 2023. The organization is advocating for the passage of the Combating Organized Retail Crime Act, which would increase federal level coordination with state and local level law enforcement.
Matthew Holloway is a senior reporter for AZ Free News. Follow him on X for his latest stories, or email tips to Matthew@azfreenews.com.
by Terri Jo Neff | Dec 5, 2021 | Economy, News
By Terri Jo Neff |
In October, the National Retail Federation projected nearly $860 billion in 2021 holiday sales, bolstered by customers planning to spend more than 2020. Online retailers and the brick-and-mortar type retailers were also told to expect one-half of shoppers to begin their holiday purchases even before Thanksgiving.
Many economists also forecasted that holiday shoppers will be purchasing fewer items but would be willing to spend money for better quality and more substantive items, if supply chain problems don’t get in the way. All of which means a lot of eyes were focused on the results from the key Thanksgiving holiday shopping days including Black Friday, Small Business Saturday, and Cyber Monday.
Sensormatic Solutions provides services to retailers in the areas of inventory intelligence, shopper experience, loss prevention, and operational effectiveness. According to Sensormatic, shopper activity on Nov. 26 through Nov. 28 increased more than 34 percent compared to 2020. During the same three days, however, traffic at brick-and-mortar stores was 21 percent lower than in 2019.
It is unknown whether the decision by most major retailers to remain closed all of Thanksgiving Day had any impact on buyer decisions. But one retail executive says December 2021 still provides unique opportunities and challenges for retailers.
“Shoppers are returning to stores, but there are still lingering health and safety concerns making some cautious of traditionally crowded shopping days,” said Brian Field, senior director of global retail consulting for Sensormatic. “With a data-driven understanding of customer concerns, retailers can implement processes to help make shoppers feel comfortable in stores – via occupancy monitoring, temperature checks, extended hours and a seamless contactless shopping experience.”
Sensormatic also looked at Cyber Monday data. One change over 2020 is that many retailers with physical stores made their online sales pricing and special offers available to in-store shoppers. But those Cyber Monday offers did not help generate additional foot traffic, which ended up being similar to a typical fall day.
“Though the mix of weekday shopping had been on the rise throughout the pandemic as shoppers take advantage of more flexible work schedules and try to avoid weekend crowds, Cyber Monday typically has no impact on in-store traffic and the same was true of this year,” Field said.
Yet according to Field, the overall data shows retailers should breathe a sigh of relief with the direction holiday sales are taking.
“Over the past month, in-store traffic has progressively improved as consumers have started their holiday shopping early,” Field said. “Retailers are seeing positive change year over year, and the Black Friday weekend data shows an upward trajectory toward pre-pandemic levels.”
Page 1 of 11
